Professional Documents
Culture Documents
0 CT-forecast
CT-updated
0
CT-real
0
0
0000 0000 0000 0
000 0
000 0
000 0
000 0
000 0
000 0
000
-0
Number of Hurricanes
Normalized Deviation
0
H-forecast
0
H-updated
0
H-real
0
0000 0000 0000 0
000 0
000 0
000 0
000 0
000 0
000 0
000
-0
-0
2. Forecast Aug-Sep
SST for Atlantic
hurricane main
development region
(10° -20° N, 20° -
60° W).
Sensitivity to Climate
Norm
Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS): Percent improvement in
MSE (mean square error) over a climatological forecast:
MSSS = (1 – MSEFore / MSEClim) x 100%
ACE index
TSR
replicated
real-time
forecasts
1984-2005
City University of Hong
Kong Western North Pacific
(WNP) seasonal forecasts
Forecasts issued since 2000 in April and June for:
• Number of tropical cyclones,
• Number of TS and typhoons,
• Number of typhoons
ENSO Indices: Nino3.4, Nino4, SOI
Western extent of subtropical high over WNP
Strength of the India-Burma trough (15˚-20˚N, 80˚-120˚E)
Difference: Equatorial Eastern Pacific and Indonesia SLP
Primary mode of low-frequency variability in the WNP.
CUHK June Forecasts
Australia & Southwest
Pacific forecasts
Issued in September 2003, 2004 and
2005 for the following November – May
season.
Based on:
– SOI
– Potential temperature gradient
Description in:
– McDonnell & Holbrook, GRL 2004
– McDonnell & Holbrook, Wea. Forecasting,
2004.
Macquarie Univ. Australia.
Landfall Probability
Forecasts
FSU Group Landfall
Seasonal Forecasts
Methodologies
Development of various novel methods for
TC seasonal forecasts.
Landfall forecast paper for U.S. forecasts:
– Leehmiller, Kimberlain & Elsner, MWR (1997).
Recent improved scheme:
– Jagger & Elsner, J. Climate (2006).
Eastern North JJAS March,April, May, June NTC, ACE March 2004
Pacific
Western North JASO April, May, June, July NTC, ACE, April 2003
Pacific location
North Atlantic ASO April, May, June, July, NTC, ACE June 2003
August
December, January
0.5
Linear correlation
0.3
0.1
-0.1
-0.3
-0.5
ATL ENP WNP NIN SIN AUS SPC
BASIN
ECMWF Operational Seasonal
Forecasts
E C M W F S easonal F ore cast
Forecasts starting on 1st June 2005 JASON M et O ffice Seasonal F orecast
Tropical Storm Frequency JASO N Tropical Storm F requency JASO N
Forec ast start referenc e is 01/06/2005 Signific anc e level is 90% Forec ast start reference is 01/06/2005 Significance level is 90%
Ensemble size = 40,c limate size = 70
ECMWF Ensemble size = 41,c limate size = 225
Met Office
FOR ECAST CLIMAT E FORECAST CLIMAT E
2 0° E 4 0 °E 6 0° E 80°E 1 0 0° E 1 2 0° E 1 4 0° E 160°E 18 0 ° 1 6 0° W 1 4 0° W 1 2 0° W 1 0 0° W 80°W 60°W 40°W 20°W 20°E 40°E 60°E 80 °E 100°E 120°E 140°E 1 60°E 180° 160°W 140°W 120°W 100°W 80°W 60°W 40°W 20°W
50 ° N
40 ° N
30 ° N
50°N
40°N
30°N
50°N
40°N
30°N
50°N
40°N
30°N
Obs: July- November
20 ° N 20°N 20°N 20°N
2 2.9 25.1 26.2 9.8 13.3 14.3 10.3 3 2.9 27.4 26.2 8.8 13.3 15 10.3
10 ° N 10°N 10°N 10°N
0° 0° 0° 0°
2 0° E 4 0 °E 6 0° E 80°E 1 0 0° E 1 2 0° E 1 4 0° E 160°E 18 0 ° 1 6 0° W 1 4 0° W 1 2 0° W 1 0 0° W 80°W 60°W 40°W 20°W 20°E 40°E 60°E 80 °E 100°E 120°E 140°E 1 60°E 180° 160°W 140°W 120°W 100°W 80°W 60°W 40°W 20°W
40° N 40° N
40° N 40° N
30° N
20° N
2.5 2.5 16.6 21.2 7.8 12.5 20.4 11.6
30° N
20° N
30° N
20° N
2.4 2.5 20.6 21.2 8.7 12.5 17.4 11.6
30° N
20° N
W-Pac E-Pac Atl
10° N 10° N 10° N 10° N
0° 0°
0° 0°
10° S 10° S
10° S 10° S
20° S 20° S
20° S 20° S
30° S 30° S
30° S 30° S
40° S 40° S
40° S 40° S
50° S 50° S
50° S 50° S
60° S 60° S
80° S 80° S
20° E 40° E 6 0°E 80° E 100° E 120° E 140° E 1 60° E 180 ° 160° W 140° W 120° W 100°W 80°W 60 °W 40° W 20° W
20°E 4 0° E 6 0° E 80 ° E 1 00° E 12 0°E 14 0°E 16 0°E 180° 16 0°W 14 0°W 12 0° W 100°W 80 °W 60° W 40°W 2 0° W
JFM 1998
Forecast
Intra-seasonal
Forecasts
Background
Relationship of MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation)
& tropical cyclone activity in various regions:
– Australian region:
• Hall, Matthews & Karoly (2001)