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Short term

(seasonal and intra-seasonal)


prediction of tropical cyclone
PRESENTATION
Topic OF GEOGRAPHY

OVER VIEW OF CYCLONE


Working
Working Group
Group
 ANKIT
ANKIT (GIVEN
(GIVEN INFORMATION)
INFORMATION)
 NITIN
NITIN (SEARCH
(SEARCH INFORMATIONAND
INFORMATIONAND
GIVEN
GIVEN IDEA)
IDEA)
 VISHAL
VISHAL (MADE
(MADE THE
THE PRESENTATION)
PRESENTATION)
Outline
 Seasonal tropical cyclone forecasts
– Statistical forecasts
– Landfall probability forecasts
– Dynamical forecasts
 Intra-seasonal tropical cyclone forecasts
 Recommendation
Operational Statistical
Forecasts
Center Regions Since Issued
CSU Atlantic 1984 Dec, Apr, Jun, Aug
NOAA Outlooks Atlantic 1998 May, August
Eastern Pacific 2003 May
City Univ. Hong Western North 2000 April, June
Kong Pacific
Inst. of Meteorol. of Atlantic, Caribbean 1996 May
Cuba
Tropical Storm Risk Atlantic 1999 Dec. to July
Western North Pacific 2000 March to Aug.
Australia 2000 April to Dec.
Predictants CSU
Forecasts (June)
 Current ENSO conditions
 West African rainfall
 QBO
 Caribbean SLP and upper level winds
 Azores SLP anomalies
 Atlantic SST anomalies
 African Sahel temperature gradient
CSU Atlantic Forecasts
 Determinist forecasts
 Adjusted August 2006 forecasts:
Variable Forecast Climatol Verif.
Named Storms - NS 15 9.6 9
Named Storm Days - NSD 75 49.1 50
Hurricanes - H 7 5.9 5
Hurricane Days - HD 35 24.5 20
Intense Hurricanes - IH 3 2.3 2
Intense Hurricane Days - IHD 8 5.0 3
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity -NTC 140 100 85
Correlations of CSU
Forecasts
Skill analysis by Phil Klotzbach, CSU
0 .0
0 .0
0 .0
NS
0 .0
0 .0 NSD
00. H
00. HD
00. IH
0
IHD
-0 .0
-0 .0 NTC
-0 .0
Dec. Apr. Jun Aug.

1992-2005 1995-2005 1984 or 1990 or 1991 to 2005


CSU Forecasts - Mean Square Skill
Score
Skill Analysis by Phil Klotzbach, CSU
0 0%
0 0%
0 0%
0 0% NS
0 0% NSD
H
0 0%
HD
0 0%
0%
Jun Jun 0yr Aug Aug 0yr
Clim Clim

Percent of improvement in mean square error over a climatological or persisted forecast.


Basis and Procedures for the
Seasonal Hurricane Outlooks
NOAA’s makes seasonal hurricane outlooks by
first analyzing and predicting these leading
recurring patterns of climate variability in the
tropics, and then predicting their impacts on
hurricane activity.
The two dominant climate factors that influence/control
seasonal hurricane activity in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific regions are:

El Niño/ Southern Oscillation (ENSO): Gray (1984)

Tropical multi-decadal climate variability: Chelliah and Bell (2004)


Bell and Chelliah (2006)
NOAA’s 2005 Seasonal Hurricane Outlooks
Issued 22 May 2006
Institute of Meteorology of Cuba Forecasts
Comparison: observations and forecasts using
normalized standard deviation Forecasts Long term mean
1996 – 1998: 1966 – 1994
1999 – 2002: 1966 – 1998
Number of Tropical Storms and Hurricanes 2000 – 2005: 1965 - 2002
Normalized Deviation

0 CT-forecast
CT-updated
0
CT-real
0

0
0000 0000 0000 0
000 0
000 0
000 0
000 0
000 0
000 0
000
-0

Number of Hurricanes
Normalized Deviation

0
H-forecast
0
H-updated
0
H-real
0
0000 0000 0000 0
000 0
000 0
000 0
000 0
000 0
000 0
000
-0

-0

Forecast – 2nd May


Updated – 1st August
TSR
Predictors/Methodology
Regression with
two predictors:
1. Forecast July-Sep
trade wind speed
(region 7.5° -17.5° N,
30° -100° W).

2. Forecast Aug-Sep
SST for Atlantic
hurricane main
development region
(10° -20° N, 20° -
60° W).
Sensitivity to Climate
Norm
Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS): Percent improvement in
MSE (mean square error) over a climatological forecast:
MSSS = (1 – MSEFore / MSEClim) x 100%

ACE index
TSR
replicated
real-time
forecasts
1984-2005
City University of Hong
Kong Western North Pacific
(WNP) seasonal forecasts
Forecasts issued since 2000 in April and June for:
• Number of tropical cyclones,
• Number of TS and typhoons,
• Number of typhoons
 ENSO Indices: Nino3.4, Nino4, SOI
 Western extent of subtropical high over WNP
 Strength of the India-Burma trough (15˚-20˚N, 80˚-120˚E)
 Difference: Equatorial Eastern Pacific and Indonesia SLP
 Primary mode of low-frequency variability in the WNP.
CUHK June Forecasts
Australia & Southwest
Pacific forecasts
 Issued in September 2003, 2004 and
2005 for the following November – May
season.
 Based on:
– SOI
– Potential temperature gradient
 Description in:
– McDonnell & Holbrook, GRL 2004
– McDonnell & Holbrook, Wea. Forecasting,
2004.
 Macquarie Univ. Australia.
Landfall Probability
Forecasts
FSU Group Landfall
Seasonal Forecasts
Methodologies
 Development of various novel methods for
TC seasonal forecasts.
 Landfall forecast paper for U.S. forecasts:
– Leehmiller, Kimberlain & Elsner, MWR (1997).
 Recent improved scheme:
– Jagger & Elsner, J. Climate (2006).

 Methodology used by various private


companies for regional forecasts.*
Landfall Forecasts
 CSU – Landfall probabilities since 1998. Most recent development new
website with landfall probabilities by counties in the U.S.
 TSR – U.S. ACE index forecasts
Saunders & Lea, Nature (2005)
 CUHK – South China Sea landfall forecasts: operational in 2004 & 2005
Liu & Chan, MWR (2003)
 INSMET – landfall of tropical cyclones in Cuba.
Dynamical Seasonal
Tropical Cyclone
Forecasts
 IRI experimental forecasts
– Skill: Camargo, Barnston & Zebiak (2005)
– Methodology: Camargo & Zebiak (2002)

 ECMWF experimental forecasts:


– Skill: Vitart (2006).
– Methodology: Vitart et al. (1997,1999).
IRI Tropical Cyclone Activity Experimental
Dynamical Forecasts

Basin Season Issued Type 1st forecast

Eastern North JJAS March,April, May, June NTC, ACE March 2004
Pacific
Western North JASO April, May, June, July NTC, ACE, April 2003
Pacific location

North Atlantic ASO April, May, June, July, NTC, ACE June 2003
August

South Pacific DJFM September, October,


November, December
NTC September 2003

Australian basin JFM September, October,


November,
NTC September 2003

December, January

NTC=Number of named Tropical Cyclones 22


ACE=Accumulated Cyclone Energy , Location= centroid
How are the forecasts
produced?
1. Sea Surface Temperature forecasts
(various scenarios) produced.
2. Atmospheric Model (ECHAM4.5) forced by
sea surface temperature forecasts.
3. Tropical Cyclone-like structures detected
and tracked.
4. Statistical corrections of the tropical
cyclone activity based on the model
climatology.
5. Probabilistic forecasts of tropical cyclone
activity.
6. IRI Experimental Seasonal Tropical Cyclone
Outlooks released
IRI SST forecast for ASO
IRI forecasts skill: real-time
Australia
IRI forecasts skill:
simulations
Atlantic
ECMWF Dynamical
Forecasts
 Model tropical cyclones in 3 coupled ocean-
atmospheric models: multi-model ensemble.
 Produced operationally since April 2002.
 Forecasts updated monthly for the following
5 months seasons in the relevant basins.
 Forecasts are not public, but are available for
institutions affiliated with ECMWF and by
request.
 Forecasts for 7 ocean basins.
Multi-model ECMWF-UKMO-
CNRM: 1959-2001
Interannual variability: linear correlation with observations
0.9 1959-1973
1973-1987
1987-2001
0.7

0.5
Linear correlation

0.3

0.1

-0.1

-0.3

-0.5
ATL ENP WNP NIN SIN AUS SPC
BASIN
ECMWF Operational Seasonal
Forecasts
E C M W F S easonal F ore cast
Forecasts starting on 1st June 2005 JASON M et O ffice Seasonal F orecast
Tropical Storm Frequency JASO N Tropical Storm F requency JASO N
Forec ast start referenc e is 01/06/2005 Signific anc e level is 90% Forec ast start reference is 01/06/2005 Significance level is 90%
Ensemble size = 40,c limate size = 70
ECMWF Ensemble size = 41,c limate size = 225

Met Office
FOR ECAST CLIMAT E FORECAST CLIMAT E
2 0° E 4 0 °E 6 0° E 80°E 1 0 0° E 1 2 0° E 1 4 0° E 160°E 18 0 ° 1 6 0° W 1 4 0° W 1 2 0° W 1 0 0° W 80°W 60°W 40°W 20°W 20°E 40°E 60°E 80 °E 100°E 120°E 140°E 1 60°E 180° 160°W 140°W 120°W 100°W 80°W 60°W 40°W 20°W

80 ° N 80°N 80°N 80°N

70 ° N 70°N 70°N 70°N

60 ° N 60°N 60°N 60°N

50 ° N

40 ° N

30 ° N
50°N

40°N

30°N
50°N

40°N

30°N
50°N

40°N

30°N
Obs: July- November
20 ° N 20°N 20°N 20°N
2 2.9 25.1 26.2 9.8 13.3 14.3 10.3 3 2.9 27.4 26.2 8.8 13.3 15 10.3
10 ° N 10°N 10°N 10°N

0° 0° 0° 0°

10 ° S 10°S 10°S 10°S 30


20 ° S 20°S 20°S 20°S

30 ° S 30°S 30°S 30°S

40 ° S 40°S 40°S 40°S


25
50 ° S 50°S 50°S 50°S

60 ° S 60°S 60°S 60°S

70 ° S 70°S 70°S 70°S

80 ° S 80°S 80°S 80°S


20

2 0° E 4 0 °E 6 0° E 80°E 1 0 0° E 1 2 0° E 1 4 0° E 160°E 18 0 ° 1 6 0° W 1 4 0° W 1 2 0° W 1 0 0° W 80°W 60°W 40°W 20°W 20°E 40°E 60°E 80 °E 100°E 120°E 140°E 1 60°E 180° 160°W 140°W 120°W 100°W 80°W 60°W 40°W 20°W

E URO S IP m u lti-m od el season al forecast EC MW F/Met O ffice/Météo-Fran ce


15
No S ignificance
M étéo-France Seasonal Forecast
90% S ignifica nce 95% S ignifica nce 99% S ignifica nce
Trop ical Storm F req
No Significa nce u en cy90% S ignifica n ce 95% Significa nce 99% S ignifica nce JAS O N
Forecast start reference is 01/06/2005 Significance level is 10%
Tropical Storm Frequency JASON Ensemble size = 120,climate size = 165
Forecast start reference is 01/06/2005 Significance level is 90% 10
Ensemble size = 41,climate size = 55
Meteo-France FOR ECAST
Multi-model CLIMAT E
FORECAST CLIMAT E 20°E 4 0° E 6 0° E 80 ° E 1 00° E 12 0°E 14 0°E 16 0°E 180° 16 0°W 14 0°W 12 0° W 100°W 80 °W 60° W 40°W 2 0° W
5
20° E 40° E 6 0°E 80° E 100° E 120° E 140° E 1 60° E 180 ° 160° W 140° W 120° W 100°W 80°W 60 °W 40° W 20° W
80° N 80° N
80° N 80° N
70° N 70° N
70° N 70° N
60° N 60° N 0
60° N 60° N
50° N 50° N
50° N 50° N

40° N 40° N
40° N 40° N

30° N

20° N
2.5 2.5 16.6 21.2 7.8 12.5 20.4 11.6
30° N

20° N
30° N

20° N
2.4 2.5 20.6 21.2 8.7 12.5 17.4 11.6
30° N

20° N
W-Pac E-Pac Atl
10° N 10° N 10° N 10° N

0° 0°
0° 0°

10° S 10° S
10° S 10° S
20° S 20° S
20° S 20° S
30° S 30° S
30° S 30° S
40° S 40° S
40° S 40° S
50° S 50° S

50° S 50° S
60° S 60° S

70° S 70° S 60° S 60° S

80° S 80° S 70° S 70° S

80° S 80° S
20° E 40° E 6 0°E 80° E 100° E 120° E 140° E 1 60° E 180 ° 160° W 140° W 120° W 100°W 80°W 60 °W 40° W 20° W

20°E 4 0° E 6 0° E 80 ° E 1 00° E 12 0°E 14 0°E 16 0°E 180° 16 0°W 14 0°W 12 0° W 100°W 80 °W 60° W 40°W 2 0° W

No Significa nce 90% Significance 95% Significance 99% S ignificance

No S ignifica nce S ig a t 10% le ve l S ig a t 5% le ve l S ig a t 1% le ve l


Landfall in Mozambique:
Coupled Hindcast
JFM 2000
(TL159L40)

Frequency of landfall Obs.

JFM 1998

Forecast
Intra-seasonal
Forecasts
Background
 Relationship of MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation)
& tropical cyclone activity in various regions:

– Western North Pacific:


• Liebmann, Hendon, Glick (1994); Sobel and Maloney (2000)

– Gulf of Mexico & Eastern North Pacific:


• Maloney & Hartmann (2000); Molinari & Volaro (2000)

– Australian region:
• Hall, Matthews & Karoly (2001)

– South Indian Ocean:


• Bessafi & Wheeler (2006)
MJO Prediction
 Currently: mainly empirical methods
 Dynamical models: difficult in simulating
and predicting MJO.
 Progress with high-resolution coupled
models: Vitart (2006)
 MJO is monitored on real time:
Wheeler & Weickmann (2001).
Modulation of TC activity by MJO
phase New statistical forecast method:
•Weekly probabilites of TC
Activity within large zones in the
Southern Hemisphere
•Predictors: MJO indices,
ENSO SST indices, and Indian
Ocean SST.
•Greatest skill: strong MJO

Wheeler & Hendon (2004)


Waves & Probabilities of
•Developed by Paul Roundy
TCs
•Based on relationship of waves and TCs (Roundy & Frank, 2004a,b,c)
•Logistic regression between wave modes and TC genesis
•Skill of 10-40% (location dependent) over climatology in one-week leads
Recommendations
 Verifications and skills for real-time
forecasts readily available for all forecasts.
 Skill analysis (in hindcasts and real time)
should be published in peer review papers,
if possible with a common metric for all
forecasts.
 Improvements could be possible with new
homogeneous datasets for TCs (e.g. new
dataset by Jim Kossin).
 Combination of statistical and dynamical
methods should be used for improvement in
landfall prediction.
 Intra-seasonal forecasts could be used as
guidance for forecasting genesis.
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THANKS ALL
THANKS ALL OF
OF
YOU
YOU
FROM
FROM
ANKIT,VISHAL&
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NITIN
NITIN
CLASS:- X
CLASS:- XAA

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