Usm 2016-Vesperyino-Marketing-Inferencias de Una Muestra-Inglés

Copyright 2014, 2011, and 2008 Pearson Education,
Inc.
6-1
Statistics for Business and

Economics
Chapter 6
Inferences Based on a Single Sample

Inc.
6-2
Content
1. Identifying and Estimating the Target
Parameter
2. Confidence Interval for a Population
Mean:
Normal (z) Statistic
3. Confidence Interval for a Population Mean:
Students t-Statistic
4. Large-Sample Confidence Interval for a
Population Proportion
5. Determining the Sample Size
6. Finite Population Correction for Simple
Random Sampling
Inc.
6-3
Learning Objectives
1. Estimate a population parameter (means,
proportion, or variance) based on a large
sample selected from the population
2. Use the sampling distribution of a statistic to
form a confidence interval for the population
parameter
3. Show how to select the proper sample size
for estimating a population parameter

Inc.
6-4
Thinking Challenge
Suppose youre
interested in the
average amount of
money that
students in this
class (the
population) have on
them. How would
you find out?
Inc.
6-5
Statistical Methods
Statistical
Methods
Descriptive
Statistics
Inferential
Statistics
Estimation

Inc.
Hypothesis
Testing
6-6
6.1
Identifying and Estimating
the Target Parameter

Inc.
6-7
Estimation Methods
Estimation
Point
Estimation
Interval
Estimation

Inc.
6-8
Target Parameter
The unknown population parameter (e.g., mean or
proportion) that we are interested in estimating is
called the target parameter.

Inc.
6-9
Target Parameter
Determining the Target Parameter
Parameter Key Words of Phrase Type of Data
Mean; average
Quantitative
Proportion; percentage
fraction; rate
Qualitative
Inc.
6-10
Point Estimator
A point estimator of a population parameter is a
rule or formula that tells us how to use the sample
data to calculate a single number that can be used
as an estimate of the target parameter.

Inc.
6-11
Point Estimation
1. Provides a single value
Based on observations from one sample
2. Gives no information about how close

the value is to the unknown population
parameter
3. Example: Sample mean x = 3 is
the point estimate of the unknown
population mean
Inc.
6-12
Interval Estimator
An interval estimator (or confidence interval) is
a formula that tells us how to use the sample data
to calculate an interval that estimates the target
parameter.

Inc.
6-13
Interval Estimation
1. Provides a range of values
Based on observations from one sample
2. Gives information about closeness to unknown

population parameter
Stated in terms of probability

Knowing exact closeness requires knowing
unknown population parameter
3. Example: Unknown population mean lies between

50 and 70 with 95% confidence
Inc.
6-14
6.2
Confidence Interval for
a Population Mean:
Normal (z) Statistic

Inc.
6-15
Estimation Process
Population
Mean, ,
is
unknown
Sample
Random Sample
Mean
x = 50

Inc.
I am 95%
confident that
is between
40 & 60.
6-16
Key Elements of
Interval Estimation
Sample statistic
Confidence interval
(point estimate)
Confidence limit
(lower)
Confidence limit
(upper)
A confidence interval provides a range of

plausible values for the population
parameter.
Inc.
6-17
Confidence Interval
According to the Central Limit Theorem, the
sampling distribution of the sample mean is
approximately normal for large samples. Let us
calculate the interval estimator:
x 1.96 x
1.96 n
x
That is, we form an interval from 1.96 standard
deviations below the sample mean to 1.96 standard
deviations above the mean. Prior to drawing the
sample, what are the chances that this interval will
enclose , the population mean?
Inc.
6-18
Confidence Interval
If sample measurements yield a value of x that falls
between the two lines on either side of , then the
interval x
1.96
The area under the

normal curve between
these two boundaries
is exactly .95. Thus,
the probability that a
randomly selected
interval will contain
is equal to .95.
will contain .

Inc.
6-19
Confidence Coefficient
The confidence coefficient is the probability that
a randomly selected confidence interval encloses
the population parameter - that is, the relative
frequency with which similarly constructed
intervals enclose the population parameter when
the estimator is used repeatedly a very large
number of times. The confidence level is the
confidence coefficient expressed as a percentage.

Inc.
6-20
95% Confidence Level

If our confidence level is 95%, then in the long run,
95% of our confidence intervals will contain and 5%
will not.
For a confidence coefficient of 95%, the area in the
two tails is .05. To choose a different confidence
coefficient we increase or decrease the area (call it
) assigned to the tails. If we place /2 in each
tail
and z /2 is the z-value,
the confidence interval
with coefficient (1 )
is
Inc.
6-21
Conditions Required for a Valid

Large-Sample
1. A random sample is selected from the target
population.
2. The sample size n is large (i.e., n 30). Due to
the Central Limit Theorem, this condition
guarantees that the sampling distribution of x is
approximately normal. Also, for large n, s will be
a good estimator of .
Inc.
6-22
Large-Sample (1 )%
ConfidenceInterval for
x

n
where z /2 xisthez z-value with an area /2 to its
2
right and in the standard normal distribution. The
parameter is the standard deviation of the
sampled population, and n is the sample size.
Note: When is unknown and n is large (n
30), the confidence interval
is
approximately
s
x
equal to
n
z
2
where s is the sample
standard
deviation.

Inc.
6-23
Thinking Challenge
Youre a Q/C inspector for
Gallo. The for 2-liter
bottles is .05 liters. A
random sample of 100 bottles
showed x = 1.99 liters. What
is the 90% confidence
interval estimate of the true
mean amount in 2-liter
bottles?
22 lliitteerr
1984-1994 T/Maker Co.

Inc.
6-24
Confidence Interval
Solution*
x
z
1.99
1.645
/2
x
n z
/2
.05
1.99
100 1.645
n
.05
100
1.982
1.998

Inc.
6-25
6.3
a Population Mean:

Inc.
6-26
Small Sample
Unknown
Instead of using the standard normal statistic

z
use the tstatistic

t
x
s
in which the sample standard deviation, s, replaces

the population standard deviation, .
Inc.
6-27
The t-statistic has a sampling distribution very
much like that of the z-statistic: mound-shaped,
symmetric, with mean 0.
The primary
difference between
the sampling
distributions of t and
z is that the t-statistic
is more variable than
the z-statistic.
Inc.
6-28
Degrees of Freedom
The actual amount of variability in the sampling
distribution of t depends on the sample size n. A
convenient way of expressing this dependence is
to say that the t-statistic has (n 1) degrees of
freedom (df).

Inc.
6-29
Students t Distribution
Bell-Shaped
Standard
Normal
t (df = 13)
Symmetric
Fatter
t (df = 5)
Tails
0
Inc.
z
t
6-30
t - Table

Inc.
6-31
t-value
If we want the t-value with an area of .025 to its
right and 4 df, we look in the table under the
column t.025 for the entry in the row corresponding
to 4 df. This entry is t.025 = 2.776. The
corresponding standard normal z-score is z.025 =
1.96.

Inc.
6-32
Small-Sample
x
t
s
n
where ta/2 is based on (n 1) degrees of freedom.

Inc.
6-33
Conditions Required for a

Valid Small-Sample
1. A random sample is selected from the
target population.
2. The population has a relative frequency
distribution that is approximately normal.

Inc.
6-34
Estimation Example
Mean (
Unknown)
A random sample of n = 25 has x = 50 and s =
8. Set up a 95% confidence interval estimate for
.
s
s
x
x
n t
n
t /2
/2
8
8
50
50
25 2.064
25
2.064
46.70
53.30
Inc.
6-35
Thinking Challenge
Youre a time study analyst
in manufacturing. Youve
recorded the following task
times (min.):
3.6, 4.2, 4.0, 3.5, 3.8, 3.1.
What is the 90% confidence
interval estimate of the
population mean task time?

Inc.
6-36
Confidence Interval Solution*

x = 3.7
s = 3.8987
n = 6, df = n 1 = 6 1 = 5
t.05 = 2.015
3.7 2.015
.38987
2.015
6
3.7
.38987

Inc.
6-37
6.4
Large-Sample Confidence
Interval for a Population
Proportion

Inc.
6-38
Sampling Distribution of p
1. The mean of the sampling distribution of
is p;
that is, p
is an unbiased estimator of p.
is pq n ; that is,
2. The standard deviation of the
sampling
where q = 1p.
p
distribution of p
pq n
3. For large samples, the sampling distribution of

p is approximately normal. A sample size is
considered large if both np
15 andnq

Inc.
15.
6-39
Large-Sample Confidence
Interval for p
p z
2
p
z 2
where p
pq
n p
z 2
n
q
and q 1
p .
Note: Whenn n is large, p can approximate

the value of p in the formula for
Inc.
.
6-40

Valid Large-Sample
Confidence Interval for p
1. A random sample is selected from the target
population.
2. The sample size n is large. (This condition will be
satisfied if both np
15 and nq
15 . Note
that np and nq
are simply the number
of successes and number of failures,
respectively, in the sample.).
Inc.
6-41
Estimation Example
Proportion
A random sample of 400 graduates
showed 32 went to graduate school. Set
up a 95% confidence interval estimate for
p.
p q
p / 2 n
n
/2
q
Z
p p Z
.
.08
p
.08
0840
.92 1.96
1.96
0
.053 p
.107

Inc.
p 400
0.08
32
.
0840
.92
0
6-42
Thinking Challenge
Youre a production
manager for a newspaper.
You want to find the %
defective. Of 200
newspapers, 35 had
defects. What is the 90%
confidence interval estimate
of the population
proportion defective?

Inc.
6-43
Confidence Interval
Solution*
p /2
z
.175
1.645
p q
.175(.825)
200
p
.1308
2192
/2
p z
.175
1.645
p
n
q
.
175(.825)
200
p .

Inc.
6-44
Adjusted (1
Confidence
)100% Interval for a
Population Proportion, p
p
z
p 1
n
p 4
x
p 2
is
the
adjusted
sample
proportion
where
n
of observations with the characteristic of interest, x
4 number of successes in the sample, and n is

is the
the sample size.
Inc.
6-45
6.5
Determining the Sample Size

Inc.
6-46
Sampling Error
In general, we express the reliability associated
with a confidence interval for the population mean
by specifying the sampling error within which
we want to estimate with 100(1 )%
confidence. The sampling error (denoted SE),
then, is equal to the half-width of the confidence
interval.

Inc.
6-47
Sample Size Determination

for 100(1 )
Confidence
Interval for
%
In order to estimate with a sampling error (SE)
and with 100(1 )% confidence, the
sample
size
is
found
as
follows:
required
z 2
n
SE
The solution for n is given
by the equation
n z
SE


Inc.
6-48
Sample Size Example

What sample size is needed to be 90%
confident the mean is within 5? A pilot
study suggested that the standard
deviation is 45.
(z
2
2
(SE)
2
1.645
5
45
2 9.2
220
22

Inc.
6-49
Sample Size Determination

for 100(1 )
Confidence
Interval for p
%
In order to estimate p with a sampling error SE and
with 100(1 )% confidence, the required
sample size is found by solving the following
n:
equation pq
for
z
n SE
The 2solution for n can be written as follows:
2
n z
SE
pq
2
Note: Always round n

up to the nearest
integer value.
Inc.
6-50
Sample Size Example

What sample size is needed to estimate
p
within .03 with 90% confidence?
width
SE
(Z
2 .015 2 2
2
(SE)
pq
2
.03
1.645 .5 .5
.015
2
3 06.69
3007

Inc.
6-51
Thinking Challenge
You work in Human
Resources at Merrill Lynch.
You plan to survey employees
to find their
average medical expenses.
You want to be 95% confident
that the sample mean is
within $50.
A pilot study showed that
was about $400. What
sample size do you use?
Inc.
6-52
Sample Size Solution*

n
(z
)
2
(SE)2
1.96
50
400
2
245.86
246
Inc.
6-53
6.6
Finite Population
Correction
for Simple Random Sample

Inc.
6-54
Finite Population Correction Factor

In some sampling situations, the sample size n
may represent 5% or perhaps 10% of the total
number N of sampling units in the population.
When the sample size is large relative to the
number of measurements in the population (see
the next slide), the standard errors of the
estimators of and p should be multiplied by a
finite population correction factor.

Inc.
6-55
Rule of Thumb for Finite

Population Correction Factor
Use the finite population correction
factor when n/N > .05.

Inc.
6-56
Simple Random Sampling with

Finite Population of Size N
Estimation of the Population
Mean
Estimated standard error:
s
nn
x
N
N
Approximate 95% confidence interval: x

2 x
Inc.
6-57
Simple Random Sampling with

Finite Population of Size N
Estimation of the Population
Proportion
Estimated standard error:
p (1 p ) N
N
nn
Approximate 95% confidence interval:p

2 p
Inc.
6-58
Finite Population Correction

Factor Example
You want to estimate a population mean, , where
x =115, s =18, N =700, and n = 60. Find an
approximate 95% confidence interval for .
Since
60
.086
N
700
is greater than .05 use the finite correction

factor
Inc.
6-59

Factor Example
You want to estimate a population mean, , where
x =115, s =18, N =700, and n = 60. Find an
approximate 95% confidence interval for .
x
115
N n
18 115 4.4
2
60
119.4
700
60
700
110.6,

Inc.
6-60
6.7
a
Population Variance

Inc.
6-61
Confidence Interval for a

Population Variance

Inc.
6-62

Valid Confidence Interval
for 2
1.A random sample is selected from the

target population.
2.The population of interest has a relative
frequency distribution that is
approximately normal.

Inc.
6-63
Thinking Challenge
Youre a marketing
manager for a 5K race. You
take a random sample of
the times of 292 runners
from the last race, with
mean of 28.5 minutes and
standard deviation of 8.3
minutes. What is the 95%
confidence interval
estimate
of the population variance?
Inc.
6-64
Confidence Interval
Solution*
df = 292 1 = 291 (use 300
df)
.025
2
1 s 2
2
292
349.874
292
n 1 21 s 2
253.912
1 8.3
1 8.3
57.30 2
78.95
2

Inc.
6-65
Key Ideas
Population Parameters, Estimators,
and
Standard
Errors
Estimated
Parameter
Estimator Standard

Mean,
Proportion, p
x
p
Error of
Estimator
pq n

Inc.
Std Error
s n
p q
n
6-66
Key Ideas
Population Parameters, Estimators,
and
Standard Errors
Confidence Interval: An interval that encloses
an unknown population parameter with a certain
level of confidence (1 )
Confidence Coefficient: The probability (1
) that a randomly selected confidence
interval encloses the true value of the
population parameter.
Inc.
6-67
Key Ideas
Key Words for Identifying the Target
Parameter
Mean, Average
p Proportion, Fraction, Percentage, Rate,
Probability
- Variance
Inc.
6-68
Key Ideas
Commonly Used z-Values for a LargeSample Confidence Interval
90% CI:
(1 ) = .10
z.05 = 1.645
95% CI:
(1 ) = .05
z.025 = 1.96
98% CI:
(1 ) = .02
z.005 = 2.326
99% CI:
(1 ) = .01
z.005 = 2.575

Inc.
6-69
Key Ideas
Determining the Sample Size
n
2
Estimating : n
Estimating p: n

pq
ME
ME
Inc.
6-70
Key Ideas
Factor
Required when n/N > .05

Inc.
6-71
Key Ideas
Population
Variance
Uses chi-square ( 2) distribution
Need to know
and df.

Inc.
6-72
Key Ideas
Illustrating the Notion of 95%
Confidence

Inc.
6-73
Key Ideas
Illustrating the Notion of 95%
Confidence

Inc.
6-74

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Copyright 2014, 2011, and 2008 Pearson Education,

Statistics for Business and

Copyright 2014, 2011, and 2008 Pearson Education,

Copyright 2014, 2011, and 2008 Pearson Education,

Copyright 2014, 2011, and 2008 Pearson Education,

Copyright 2014, 2011, and 2008 Pearson Education,

Copyright 2014, 2011, and 2008 Pearson Education,

Copyright 2014, 2011, and 2008 Pearson Education,

Copyright 2014, 2011, and 2008 Pearson Education,

2. Gives no information about how close

Copyright 2014, 2011, and 2008 Pearson Education,

Based on observations from one sample

2. Gives information about closeness to unknown

Stated in terms of probability

3. Example: Unknown population mean lies between

Copyright 2014, 2011, and 2008 Pearson Education,

Copyright 2014, 2011, and 2008 Pearson Education,

A confidence interval provides a range of

The area under the

Copyright 2014, 2011, and 2008 Pearson Education,

Copyright 2014, 2011, and 2008 Pearson Education,

95% Confidence Level

Conditions Required for a Valid

Copyright 2014, 2011, and 2008 Pearson Education,

1984-1994 T/Maker Co.

Copyright 2014, 2011, and 2008 Pearson Education,

Copyright 2014, 2011, and 2008 Pearson Education,

Copyright 2014, 2011, and 2008 Pearson Education,

Instead of using the standard normal statistic

use the tstatistic

in which the sample standard deviation, s, replaces

Copyright 2014, 2011, and 2008 Pearson Education,

Copyright 2014, 2011, and 2008 Pearson Education,

Copyright 2014, 2011, and 2008 Pearson Education,

where ta/2 is based on (n 1) degrees of freedom.

Copyright 2014, 2011, and 2008 Pearson Education,

Conditions Required for a

Copyright 2014, 2011, and 2008 Pearson Education,

Copyright 2014, 2011, and 2008 Pearson Education,

Confidence Interval Solution*

Copyright 2014, 2011, and 2008 Pearson Education,

Copyright 2014, 2011, and 2008 Pearson Education,

3. For large samples, the sampling distribution of

considered large if both np

Copyright 2014, 2011, and 2008 Pearson Education,

Note: Whenn n is large, p can approximate

Conditions Required for a

Copyright 2014, 2011, and 2008 Pearson Education,

Copyright 2014, 2011, and 2008 Pearson Education,

Copyright 2014, 2011, and 2008 Pearson Education,

4 number of successes in the sample, and n is

Copyright 2014, 2011, and 2008 Pearson Education,

Copyright 2014, 2011, and 2008 Pearson Education,

Sample Size Determination

Copyright 2014, 2011, and 2008 Pearson Education,

Sample Size Example

Copyright 2014, 2011, and 2008 Pearson Education,

Sample Size Determination

Note: Always round n

Sample Size Example

Copyright 2014, 2011, and 2008 Pearson Education,

Sample Size Solution*