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Probability

Master of Engineering (Material Science)

Probability Chance outcomes

DEFINITION 1: Sample space, S

A set of all possible outcomes of a

statistical experiment

Example: Tossing a coin

Probability

Identifying the sample space using a TREE

DIAGRAM:

First outcome

H

{HH}

H

T

{HT}

{TH}

{T T}

For any given experiment we may be interested

in the occurrence of certain events rather than

in the outcome of a specific element in the

sample space.

DEFINITION 2: Event

Example: Tossing a die

occurs A

Let B be the event that odd number occurs

Probability

DEFINITION 3: Complement of an Event

Is the event containing all elements in

which is not found in the sample space

A

The events containing all elements in S

Events

common to the two events

A

Probability

DEFINITION 5: Mutually

Exclusive/Disjoint

Two events have Events

no common elements

M

N

M

Is the events containing all the elements in

the two events

A

Sample Problem:

The resums of 2 male applicants for a college teaching

position in chemistry are placed in the same file as the

resums of two female applicants. Two positions become

available and the first, at the rank of assistant professor, is

filled by selecting 1 of the 4 applicants at random. The second

position, at the rank of instructor, is then filled by selecting at

random one of the remaining 3 applicants. Using the notation

M2F1, for example, to denote the simple event that the first

position is filled by the second male applicant and the second

position is then filled by the first female applicant:

a. list the elements of a sample space S;

b. list the elements of S corresponding to event A that the

position of assistant professor is filled by a male applicant;

c. list the elements of S corresponding to event B that exactly

1 of the two positions was filled by a male applicant;

Sample Problem:

The resums of 2 male applicants for a college teaching position

in chemistry are placed in the same file as the resums of two

female applicants. Two positions become available and the first,

at the rank of assistant professor, is filled by selecting 1 of the 4

applicants at random. The second position, at the rank of

instructor, is then filled by selecting at random one of the

remaining 3 applicants. Using the notation M2F1, for example, to

denote the simple event that the first position is filled by the

second male applicant and the second position is then filled by

the first female applicant:

d. list the elements of S corresponding to event C that neither

positions was filled by a male applicant;

e. list the elements of S corresponding to the event AB;

f. list the elements of S corresponding to the event AUC;

g. construct a Venn diagram to illustrate the intersections and

unions of the events A, B, and C.

Theorem 2.1

If an operation can be performed in n1 ways,

and if for each of these a second operation can

be performed in n2 ways, then the two

operations can be performed together in n1n2

ways. 1:

Example

A certain shoe comes in 5 different styles with each style

available in 4 distinct colors. If the store wishes to display

pairs of these shoes showing all of its various styles and

colors, how many different pairs would the store have on

display?

Example 2:

In how many different ways can a true-false test consisting

of 9 questions be answered?

Theorem 2.2

If an operation can be performed in n1 ways, and if for

each of these a second operation can be performed in n2

ways, and for each of the first two a third operation can

be performed in n3 ways, and so forth, then the two

operations can be performed together in n1n2 n3,nk

ways.

Example

3: A drug for the relief of asthma can be

purchased from 5 different, manufacturers in liquid, tablet,

or capsule form, all of which come in regular and extra

strength. How many different ways can a doctor prescribe

the

drug for

suffering

from asthma?

Example

4:a Apatient

witness

to a hit-and-run

accident told the

police that the license number contained the letters RLH

followed by 3 digits, the first of which is a 5. If the witness

cannot recall the last 2 digits, but is certain that all 3 digits

are different, find the maximum number of automobile

Theorem 2.3

The number of permutation of n distinct

objects is n!.

Example 5:

(a) How many distinct permutations can be made from the

letters of the word columns?

(b) How many of these permutations start with the letter

m?

Example 6:

for a concert. In how many different ways can they be

seated

(a) With no restrictions?

(b) If each couple is to sit together?

(c) If all the men sit together to the right of all the women?

Theorem 2.4

The number of permutation of n distinct

objects taken r at a time is

Example 7:

In how many ways can 5 starting positions on a basketball

team be filled with 8 men who can play any of the

positions?

Theorem 2.5

The number of permutation of n distinct

objects arranged in a circle is (n 1)!

Theorem 2.6

The number of distinct permutation of n

things of which n1 are of one kind, n2 of a

second kind, nk of a kth kind is

Example 8:

In how many ways can 5 different trees be planted in a

circle?

Example 9:

letters of the word infinity?

Example 10:

A college plays 12 football games during a season. In how

many ways can the team end the season with 7 wins, 3

losses, and 2 ties?

Theorem 2.7

The number of ways of partitioning a set of n

objects into r cells with n1 elements in the

first cell, n2 elements in the second, and so

forth, is

where

Example 11:

Nine people are going on a skiing trip in 3 cars that hold 2,

4, and 5 passengers, respectively. In how many ways is it

possible to transport the 9 people to the ski lodge, using

all cars?

Combination: r is chosen from n without regard

to

Aorder

partition with two cells, where one cell

contains the r objects selected and the other

cell containing the (n r) objects

Theorem 2.8

The number of combinations of n distinct

objects taken r at a time is

Example 12:

How many ways are there to select 3 candidates

from 8 equally qualified recent graduates for

openings in an accounting firm?

Seatwork:

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