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CHAPTER 2

Probability

PROF. GEVELYN B. ITAO


Master of Engineering (Material Science)

Probability and Statistics


Probability Chance outcomes
DEFINITION 1: Sample space, S
A set of all possible outcomes of a
statistical experiment
Example: Tossing a coin

Example: Tossing two coins at the same time

Example: Tossing two coins at the same time

Probability and Statistics


Probability
Identifying the sample space using a TREE
DIAGRAM:
First outcome
H

Second outcomeSample point


{HH}
H
T

{HT}

{TH}

{T T}

Probability and Statistics


For any given experiment we may be interested
in the occurrence of certain events rather than
in the outcome of a specific element in the
sample space.

DEFINITION 2: Event

A subset of sample space


Example: Tossing a die

Let A be the event that a number less than 5


occurs A
Let B be the event that odd number occurs

Probability and Statistics


Probability
DEFINITION 3: Complement of an Event
Is the event containing all elements in
which is not found in the sample space
A

DEFINITION 4: Intersection of two


The events containing all elements in S
Events
common to the two events
A

Probability and Statistics


Probability
DEFINITION 5: Mutually
Exclusive/Disjoint
Two events have Events
no common elements
M
N
M

DEFINITION 6: Union of two Events


Is the events containing all the elements in
the two events
A

Probability and Statistics


Sample Problem:
The resums of 2 male applicants for a college teaching
position in chemistry are placed in the same file as the
resums of two female applicants. Two positions become
available and the first, at the rank of assistant professor, is
filled by selecting 1 of the 4 applicants at random. The second
position, at the rank of instructor, is then filled by selecting at
random one of the remaining 3 applicants. Using the notation
M2F1, for example, to denote the simple event that the first
position is filled by the second male applicant and the second
position is then filled by the first female applicant:
a. list the elements of a sample space S;
b. list the elements of S corresponding to event A that the
position of assistant professor is filled by a male applicant;
c. list the elements of S corresponding to event B that exactly
1 of the two positions was filled by a male applicant;

Probability and Statistics


Sample Problem:
The resums of 2 male applicants for a college teaching position
in chemistry are placed in the same file as the resums of two
female applicants. Two positions become available and the first,
at the rank of assistant professor, is filled by selecting 1 of the 4
applicants at random. The second position, at the rank of
instructor, is then filled by selecting at random one of the
remaining 3 applicants. Using the notation M2F1, for example, to
denote the simple event that the first position is filled by the
second male applicant and the second position is then filled by
the first female applicant:
d. list the elements of S corresponding to event C that neither
positions was filled by a male applicant;
e. list the elements of S corresponding to the event AB;
f. list the elements of S corresponding to the event AUC;
g. construct a Venn diagram to illustrate the intersections and
unions of the events A, B, and C.

Probability and Statistics

ounting Sample Points


Theorem 2.1
If an operation can be performed in n1 ways,
and if for each of these a second operation can
be performed in n2 ways, then the two
operations can be performed together in n1n2
ways. 1:
Example
A certain shoe comes in 5 different styles with each style
available in 4 distinct colors. If the store wishes to display
pairs of these shoes showing all of its various styles and
colors, how many different pairs would the store have on
display?
Example 2:
In how many different ways can a true-false test consisting
of 9 questions be answered?

Probability and Statistics

ounting Sample Points


Theorem 2.2
If an operation can be performed in n1 ways, and if for
each of these a second operation can be performed in n2
ways, and for each of the first two a third operation can
be performed in n3 ways, and so forth, then the two
operations can be performed together in n1n2 n3,nk
ways.
Example
3: A drug for the relief of asthma can be
purchased from 5 different, manufacturers in liquid, tablet,
or capsule form, all of which come in regular and extra
strength. How many different ways can a doctor prescribe
the
drug for
suffering
from asthma?
Example
4:a Apatient
witness
to a hit-and-run
accident told the
police that the license number contained the letters RLH
followed by 3 digits, the first of which is a 5. If the witness
cannot recall the last 2 digits, but is certain that all 3 digits
are different, find the maximum number of automobile

Probability and Statistics

ounting Sample Points


Theorem 2.3
The number of permutation of n distinct
objects is n!.
Example 5:
(a) How many distinct permutations can be made from the
letters of the word columns?
(b) How many of these permutations start with the letter
m?

Example 6:

Four married couples have bought 8 seats in the same row


for a concert. In how many different ways can they be
seated
(a) With no restrictions?
(b) If each couple is to sit together?
(c) If all the men sit together to the right of all the women?

Probability and Statistics

ounting Sample Points


Theorem 2.4
The number of permutation of n distinct
objects taken r at a time is

Example 7:
In how many ways can 5 starting positions on a basketball
team be filled with 8 men who can play any of the
positions?

Probability and Statistics

ounting Sample Points


Theorem 2.5
The number of permutation of n distinct
objects arranged in a circle is (n 1)!
Theorem 2.6
The number of distinct permutation of n
things of which n1 are of one kind, n2 of a
second kind, nk of a kth kind is

Probability and Statistics

ounting Sample Points


Example 8:
In how many ways can 5 different trees be planted in a
circle?

Example 9:

How many distinct permutations can be made from the


letters of the word infinity?

Example 10:
A college plays 12 football games during a season. In how
many ways can the team end the season with 7 wins, 3
losses, and 2 ties?

Probability and Statistics

ounting Sample Points


Theorem 2.7
The number of ways of partitioning a set of n
objects into r cells with n1 elements in the
first cell, n2 elements in the second, and so
forth, is
where
Example 11:
Nine people are going on a skiing trip in 3 cars that hold 2,
4, and 5 passengers, respectively. In how many ways is it
possible to transport the 9 people to the ski lodge, using
all cars?

Probability and Statistics

ounting Sample Points


Combination: r is chosen from n without regard
to
Aorder
partition with two cells, where one cell
contains the r objects selected and the other
cell containing the (n r) objects
Theorem 2.8
The number of combinations of n distinct
objects taken r at a time is

Probability and Statistics

ounting Sample Points


Example 12:
How many ways are there to select 3 candidates
from 8 equally qualified recent graduates for
openings in an accounting firm?

Probability and Statistics


Seatwork: