Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Ghada Ahmed
Lecturer of Biomedical Informatics and
Medical Statistics
ILOs
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Statistical Inference
Infer
to guess that something is true because of the information that you have
e.g., I inferred from the number of cups that he was expecting visitors.
Statistical inference
Settings where one wants to infer facts
about a population using noisy statistical
data where uncertainty must be accounted
for.
Motivating Example
In every major election, pollsters would like to
know, ahead of the actual election, who's
going to win.
What is the target of estimation?
What can not we do?
What can we do?
Random sampling
It is concerned with obtaining data that is
representative of the population of interest
Selection bias
Sample lists tended to represent middleand upper-class voters: in those days, many
poor did not
have telephones
they didnt subscribe to magazines
they didnt belong to clubs
Randomization
It is concerned with balancing unobserved
variables that may confound inferences of
interest
Distribution
Frequency distribution
Frequency
It is how often something
occur
Frequency distribution
By counting frequencies we can make a
Frequency Distribution table.
How to display a
frequency distribution?
Bar char or Histogram
Bar Graph
A Bar Graph (also called Bar Chart) is a
graphical display of data using bars of
different heights.
A.2
B.3
C.4
D.5
A.2
B.1
C.4
D.5
A.2
B.3
C.4
D.5
Histogram
A Histogram is a graphical
display of data using bars of
different heights.
A.25
B.40
C.90
D.100
A.26
B.40
C.66
D.92
The list of IQ scores are: 129, 150, 124, 154, 127, 141,
118, 130, 149, 133, 142, 138, 128, 136, 130, 123, 125.
Probability distribution
A probability distribution assigns a
probability to each measurable subset of the
possible outcomes of a random experiment,
survey, or procedure of statistical inference.
Normal distribution
Skewed
distributi
on
Bimodal
Distribution
Characteristics of normal
distribution
Mean
Standard deviation
% of normal density
lies within 1.96 standard
deviations from the mean
% of normal density
lies within 2.58 standard
deviations from the mean
Population distribution
Population mean
Population SD
Group work
Sample distribution
Sample mean
Sample standard deviation
Sample size
What is this
distribution?
mean
Population standard deviation
Sample mean
Sample standard deviation SD
Sample size N
Sampling distribution
Sampling
SD
SE
Means
Confidence interval
A confidence interval is a range of values
that describes the uncertainty surrounding
an estimate.
Confidence level
The confidence level tells you how sure
you can be. It is expressed as a percentage
and represents how often the true
percentage of the population who would
pick an answer lies within the confidence
interval.
Confidence level
The 95% confidence level means you can be
95% certain; the 99% confidence level
means you can be 99% certain.
Most researchers use the 95% confidence
level.
Independence
In probability theory, to say that two events
are independent means that the
occurrence of one does not affect the
probability of the other.
Casino
An empty bag containing five marbles, three
are orange and two are green.
It is 3.5 pounds to play.
If you pick consecutive green marbles,
without replacement, you will win ten
pound.
Would you play?
Applications
The estimated prevalence of sudden infant
death syndrome (SIDS) is 1 out of 8543.
A mother had her two babies died because
of SIDS.
You were called for expert testimony for this
trial.
What is your opinion?
Gamblers fallacy
Lets recap
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Q and A
Thank You