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24)
Portfolio Performance Evaluation
Measuring investment returns
The conventional theory of performance
evaluation
Market timing
Performance attribution procedures
MeasuringInvestmentReturns
One period:
total proceeds
income capital gain
rate of return
intial investment
initial investment
Example:
Consider a stock paying a dividend of $2 annually
that currently sells for $50.
You purchase the stock today and collect the $2
dividend, and then you sell the stock for $53 at yearend.
2 ( 53 50)
rate of return
10%
50
2 53
50
r 10%
1 r
3
Multiperiod:
Arithmetic averages:
Geometric averages:
The compound average growth rate, rG, is calculated
as the solution to the following equation:
(1 rG )5
(1 0.1189 )(1 0.221)(1 0.2869)(1 0.1088)(1 0.0491)
1.0275
rG 0.0054
In general:
(1 rG ) n (1 r1 )(1 r2 )...(1 rn )
where rt is the return in each time period.
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InvestmentOutcome
Double
Halve
FinalValueofEach
DollarInvested
One-YearRateofReturn
$2.00
100%
$0.50
-50%
8
(1 rG ) (1 100%)(1 50%) 1
rG 0
which confirms that a zero year-by-year return would
have replicated the total return earned on the stock.
9
Example 2:
Consider all the possible outcomes over a two-year
period:
InvestmentOutcome
Double,double
Double,halve
Halve,double
Halve,halve
FinalValueofEach
DollarInvested
$4.00
$1.00
$1.00
$0.25
TotalReturn
overTwoYears
300%
0%
0%
-75%
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Dollar-weighted
returns:
returns
versus
time-weighted
Example:
Time
0
1
1
2
Outlay
$50topurchasefirstshare
$53topurchasesecondshareayearlater
Proceeds
$2dividendfrominitiallypurchasedshare
$4dividendfromthe2sharesheldinthe
secondyear,plus$108receivedfromselling
bothsharesat$54each
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Dollar-weighted returns:
Using the discounted cash flow (DCF) approach,
we can solve for the average return over the two
years by equating the present values of the cash
inflows and outflows:
53
2
112
50
1 r 1 r (1 r ) 2
r 7.117 %
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16
Time-weighted returns:
Ignore the number of shares of stock held in each
period.
The stock return in the 1st year:
2 ( 53 50)
r1
10%
50
The stock return in the 2nd year:
2 ( 54 53)
r2
5.66%
53
17
This average return considers only the periodby-period returns without regard to the amounts
invested in the stock in each period.
Note that the dollar-weighted average is less than
the time-weighted average in this example
because the return in the second year, when
more money is invested, is lower.
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Note:
For an investor that has control over
contributions to the investment portfolio, the
dollar-weighted return is more comprehensive
measure.
Time-weighted returns are more likely
appropriate to judge the performance of an
investor that does not control the timing or the
amount of contributions.
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TheConventionalTheoryof
PerformanceEvaluation
Several risk-adjusted performance measures:
Sharpes measure:
rP r f
P
Treynors measure:
rP r f
P r P [r f P ( r M r f )]
Information ratio:
P
(eP )
Market M
Average return
35%
28%
Beta
1.20
1.00
Standard deviation
42%
30%
18%
23
Sharpes measure:
SP
rP r f
35 6
0.69
42
28 6
SM
0.73
30
Treynors measure:
TP
rP r f
35 6
24.2
1 .2
28 6
TM
22
1
24
Jensens measure:
P
2 .6
Portfolio P :
0.144
(e P ) 18
Market : 0
25
M rP * rM
27
Example:
P has a standard deviation of 42% versus a market
standard deviation of 30%.
The adjusted portfolio P* would be formed by mixing
portfolio P and T-bills and :
weight in P: 30/42 = 0.714
weight in T-bills: (1 - 0.714) = 0.286.
The return on this portfolio P* would be:
(0.286 6%) + (0.714 35%) = 26.7%
Thus, portfolio P has an M2 measure:
26.7 28 = -1.3%.
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SC2
2
SM
P 2
[
]
(eP )
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Beta
Excess return
(r r f )
Alpha*
Portfolio P
Portfolio Q
Market
0.90
1.60
1.00
11%
19%
10%
2%
3%
38
Note:
We plot P and Q in the expected return-beta
(rather than the expected return-standard
deviation) plane, because we assume that P
and Q are two of many sub-portfolios in the
fund, and thus that nonsystematic risk will be
largely diversified away, leaving beta as the
appropriate risk measure.
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Q* wQ Q
Q* wQ Q
41
Q* wQ Q 1.6 wQ P 0.9
wQ 9 / 16
Portfolio Q* has an alpha of:
Q* wQ Q ( 9 / 16) 3 1.69%
which is less than that of P.
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TP
rP r f
An example:
Excess returns for portfolios P & Q and the
benchmark M over 12 months:
44
Performance statistics:
45
46
47
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TP
E ( rP ) r f
E ( rP ) [r f p ( E ( rM ) r f )] p ( E ( rM ) r f )
P
P
P
[ E ( rM ) r f ]
TM
P
P
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SP
E ( rP ) r f
E ( rP ) [r f p ( E ( rM ) r f )] p ( E ( rM ) r f )
P
2
P M
P M
cov( rP , rM )
PM
P M
P M
P
P PM
P
M
50
P p ( E ( rM ) r f )
SP
P
P
P PM
[ E ( rM ) r f ]
P M
P
PM S M
P
51
Performance measurement
with changing portfolio composition
Estimating various statistics from a sample period
assuming a constant mean and variance may lead to
substantial errors.
Example:
Suppose that the Sharpe measure of the market
index is 0.4.
Over an initial period of 52 weeks, the portfolio
manager executes a low-risk strategy with an
annualized mean excess return of 1% and standard
deviation of 2%.
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53
54
MarketTiming
Market timing involves shifting funds between a
market-index portfolio and a safe asset (such as
T-bills or a money market fund), depending on
whether the market as a whole is expected to
outperform the safe asset.
In practice, most managers do not shift fully, but
partially, between T-bills and the market.
57
Suppose that an investor holds only the marketindex portfolio and T-bills.
If the weight of the market were constant, say, 0.6,
then portfolio beta would also be constant, and the
security characteristic line (SCL) would plot as a
straight line with slope 0.6.
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60
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Example:
Regressing the excess returns of portfolios P and Q on
the excess returns of M and the square of these
returns:
rP r f a P bP ( rM r f ) c P ( rM r f ) 2 e P
rQ r f aQ bQ ( rM r f ) cQ ( rM r f ) 2 eQ
we derive the following statistics:
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PerformanceAttributionProcedures
Portfolio managers constantly make broad-brush
asset allocation decisions as well as more detailed
sector and security allocation decisions within asset
class.
Performance attribution studies attempt to decompose
overall performance into discrete components that
may be identified with a particular level of the
portfolio selection process.
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70
rB wBi rBi
i 1
71
rP wPi rPi
i 1
72
i 1
i 1
i 1
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Example:
Consider the attribution results for a portfolio
which invests in stocks, bonds, and money market
securities.
The managed portfolio is invested in the equity,
fixed-income, and money markets with weights of
70%, 7%, and 23%, respectively.
The portfolio return over the month is 5.34%.
75
Component
Benchmark Weight
Return of Index
during Month (%)
0.60
5.81
Bonds (Barclays
Aggregate Bond
Index)
0.30
1.45
0.10
0.48
5.34%
3.97%
1.37%
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Note:
The bogey portfolio is comprised of investments in
each index with the following weights:
60%: equity
30%: fixed income
10%: cash (money market securities).
These weights are designated as neutral or usual.
They depend on the risk tolerance of the investor and
must be determined in consultation with the client.
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(1)
(2)
Actual
Benchmark
Weight in
Weight in
Excess
Market
Performance
Market
Market
Market
Weight
Return
(%)
(%)
Equity
0.70
0.60
0.10
5.81
0.5810
Fixed-income
0.07
0.30
-0.23
1.45
-0.3335
Cash
0.23
0.10
0.13
0.48
0.0624
(3)
(4)
Contribution to
0.3099
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(1)
(2)
(3)
Portfolio
Index
Excess
(4)
Portfoli
o
Contribution
Market
(%)
(%)
(%)
Weight
(%)
Equity
7.28
5.81
1.47
0.70
1.03
0.44
0.07
0.03
1.06
Fixed1.89
1.45
income
Contribution of selection
within
markets
80
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