Water Supply Study

Present and Planned Water Supply

Operational (2001) spring water bottling plant,
with groundwater extraction rates
approximating 125 gpm.
Planned groundwater extraction of up to 400
gpm.
Concerns about impacts to nearby water
bodies.

Critical Prediction
Calculate changes in SurfaceWater Flows, Wetland and Lake
Levels from Constant
Production of 400 gpm

Regional Model Design

Selected Code
MODFLOW2000

Model Summary
Study Area

4 layers
Conductivity zones derived from
regional/local geologic studies
Variable recharge derived from
published regression analysis

0 ft

1 0 0 0 0 ft

2 0 0 0 0 ft

Local Model Area

Groundwater
Flow

Pumping
Center
Impoundment
Spring
Outfall
Stream

Shortcomings in Problem
Formulation
Modeling Tool Use of River Package
Inability to realistically represent changes
in streams, wetlands, and lakes.
Inability to explicitly represent the
impoundment-overflow

Stream

Impoundment

Culvert
Discharge
Stream

Revised Problem Formulation

Digitized stream intersections and topo maps to assign
MODFLOW Drain/River - revised during calibration.
Impoundment and nearby lakes represented with Lake
Package (Merritt and Konikow, 2000); outflow from
impoundment explicitly modeled.
Four wetlands with standing water modeled with Lake
Package to explicitly simulate wetland water levels.
Stream simulated using MODFLOW Drain Package
plus Impoundment outflow.
Regional river comprises down gradient drainage
center.

Model Calibration
Calibration Strategy
Steady-state calibration to water levels in 48 wells,
baseflow in five creeks, and lake levels in five lakes.
Transient calibration to drawdowns from long-term (72
hour) pumping test - one dozen wells with time-series
drawdown data
Prior information used to establish total transmissivity
as soft information during steady-state calibration
Approx. 40 parameters step-wise reduction using
tied/untied parameters as calibration progressed
PEST used in parallel across four 1.8GHz processors

PEST Pre-Post Processing

Advantages over GUI or prompt Execution
Ability to assess progress with every run
Ability to re-parameterize (tie, hold, transform, scale,
prior, regularize) model without rebuild
Ability to alter run type with one (or two) quick Control
File modifications Forward run, Estimation,
Regularization, and Prediction

c Read original MODFLOW DRN and RIV packages, and assign REACHES
c=======================================================================
c

Comment-out the GOTO to re-write packages with reach numbers

goto 20

Batch and Post-Processing

c

Batch File

Post-Processor

REM File Management

del headsave.hds
copy mich_fin.hds headsave.hds
del mich_fin.hds
del mich_fin.ddn
del calibration.hds
REM Run array multiplers
cond_mult
rech_mult
REM Run custom MF2K Lake Package
cust_lak3 <modflowq.in
REM get the water level target data
targpest
REM get the flux target data
flux_targets
copy mich_fin.hds calibration.hds
REM Check for water above land surface
wl_above_ls

Open(1,file='MICHIGAN_No_Reaches.riv')
Open(2,file='Michigan_reaches.riv')
MODFLOW 2000 headers
Read(1,*)
Read(1,*)
Read(1,*) nriv,idum
Write(2,'(2I10)') nriv,idum
Read(1,*) nriv
Write(2,*) nriv
Lay, Row, Col
Do n=1,nriv
Read(1,*) k,i,j,stage,cond,rbot
Write(2,2) k,i,j,stage,cond*10,rbot,iriv_rch(j,i)
End do
Close(1)
Close(2)

Open(1,file='MICHIGAN_No_Reaches.drn')
Open(2,file='Michigan_reaches.drn')
MODFLOW 2000 headers
Read(1,*)
Read(1,*)
Read(1,*) nriv,idum
Write(2,'(2I10)') nriv,idum
Read(1,*) nriv
Write(2,*) nriv
Do n=1,nriv
Lay, Row, Col
Read(1,*) k,i,j,rbot,cond
Write(2,3) k,i,j,rbot,cond,idrn_rch(j,i)
End do
Close(1)
Close(2)
20 Continue

c=======================================================================
c FORMAT STATEMENTS
c=======================================================================
1 Format(4I11,F21.0)
2 Format(3I10,F10.3,E10.3,F10.3,I10)
3 Format(3I10,F10.3,E10.3,I10)
c=======================================================================
c END OF PROGRAM

Calibration Results SS
Baseflows

WL Sum of Squares (PHI) =

Count =
Mean Residual =
Mean Absolute Residual =
StDev of the residuals =
Range =
StDev/Range =

Water Levels

~ 115 ft2
48 wells
- 0.2 ft
1.1 ft
1.5 ft
63 ft
~ 2.25%

Calibration Results Transient

Drawdowns

Predictive Analysis
Problem Formulation and Execution
Reformulate the PEST calibration control file to
estimate the max and min baseflow depletions in
stream, while maintaining calibration i.e. establish
the range of uncertainty
Typically the increment added to the calibration
objective function (min + is about 5% of min.
For our analysis, this was raised by 50%

Predictive Analysis
Present and Planned Water Supply
With total planned groundwater extraction of 400 gpm.
-Predicted stream depletion at regional river:

400 gpm

-Depletion of interest stream:

small but measurable*

-Changes in wetland water levels:

small but measurable*

The calculated upper- and lower-bound estimates of the change in flow

at the stream are on the order of five percent (above or below) of the
most likely estimated change.
*This is consistent with the observation that wetland water levels, and the areal extent of
wetlands based on aerial photographs were not significantly affected by the construction of
the impoundment .

Salient Point(s)
Problem formulation is key to the integrity of the
predictive analysis the selected code must be
designed to simulate the type of prediction of
interest.
The fairly tight bounds on the prediction may also
arise from the ability of models to predict changes
far better than absolute numbers.