Understanding Climate

Variability and Change

Prepared by:
Encina, Annfrei Renz Nicole A.
Moyo, Kurte M.
Pandez, Samantha A.

Weather vs. Climate; Natural

Variability vs. Climate Change
WEATHER: describes current atmospheric conditions ( rainfall; temperature
and wind speed) at particular place and time. It changes from day to day.
CLIMATE: the average or normal pattern of weather for a particular place
over several decades.
Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get
CLIMATE VARIABILITY: defined by climate pattern such as El-Nino Southern
Oscillation.
CLIMATE CHANGE: refers to things which happen over centuries, like global
warming.

Climate Variability
Defined by climate pattern such as El-Nino Southern Oscillation.
Can be either generated internally by interactions within or between the
individual climate subcomponents (e.g., atmosphere, ocean, and sea ice)
or externally by e.g. volcanic eruptions, variations in the solar insolation
at the top of the atmosphere, or changed atmospheric greenhouse gas
concentrations in response to anthropogenic emissions.
Examples of internal variations are the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO),
the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific Decadal Variability
(PDV), or the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV).

Figure 1 A guide to the timescales apllicable to weather, climate variability

and climate change

Pacific Decadal Variability:

Patterns and Processes
Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), Pacific decadal variability (PDV) and
interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO) all denote the same climate variability
observed in the Pacific Ocean on time scales from one or a few decades.
The diverse naming itself indicates a lack of good understanding of this
phenomenon (ENSO became widely used because it captures the essence of
the phenomenon: ocean-atmosphere interaction).
In the equatorial Pacific, SST variability is dominated by interannual
variability or ENSO while in the mid-latitude North Pacific; it contains more
power at lower frequencies with decadal or longer time scales (Deser and
Blackmon 1995)

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a robust, recurring pattern of ocean-atmosphere

climate variability centered over the mid-latitude Pacific basin.

The PDO is detected as warm or cool surface waters in the Pacific Ocean, north of 20 N.
Over the past century, the amplitude of this climate pattern has varied irregularly at
interannual- to-interdecadal time scales.

During a "warm", or "positive", phase, the west Pacific becomes cooler and part of the eastern
ocean warms; during a "cool" or "negative" phase, the opposite pattern occurs.

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation was named by Steven R. Hare, who noticed it while studying
salmon production pattern results in 1997

El Nino- Southern Oscillation

(ENSO)
An irregularly periodical variation in winds and sea surface
temperature over the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean,
affecting much of the tropics and subtropics.
Warming Phase: El Nino (High air surface pressure) ;
Cooling Phase: La Nina (Low air surface pressure)
Southern Oscillation is the accompanying atmospheric
component, coupled with the sea temperature.

 Walker Circulation discovered by Gilbert Walker. The

Walker circulation is caused by the pressure gradient
force that results from a high pressure system over the
eastern Pacific ocean, and a low pressure system over
Indonesia.
When the Walker circulation weakens or reverses, an El
Nio results, causing the ocean surface to be warmer
than average, as upwelling of cold water occurs less or
not at all. An especially strong Walker circulation causes
a La Nia, resulting in cooler ocean temperatures due to
increased upwelling.

Figure 2 Walker Circulation

Neutral Phase
If the temperature variation from climatology is within 0.5C (0.9F),
ENSO conditions are described as neutral.
Neutral conditions are the transition between warm and cold phases of
ENSO. Ocean temperatures (by definition), tropical precipitation, and
wind patterns are near average conditions during this phase.
Close to half of all years are within neutral periods.
During the neutral ENSO phase, other climate anomalies/patterns such
as the sign of the North Atlantic Oscillation or the Pacific- North
American teleconnection pattern exert more influence.

Normal Pacific pattern: Equatorial winds

gather warm water pool toward the west.
Cold water upwells along South American
coast. (NOAA / PMEL / TAO)

Warm Phase
When the Walker circulation weakens or reverses and the Hadley
circulation strengthens an El Nino results, causing the ocean surface to
be warmer than average, as upwelling of cold water occurs less or not
at all offshore northwestern South America
associated with a band of warmer than average ocean water
temperatures that periodically develops off the Pacific coast of South
America.
El nio is Spanish for the boy, and the capitalized term El Nino
refers to the Christ child, Jesus, because periodic warming in the
Pacific near South America is usually notice around Christmas.
It is a phase of 'El NinoSouthern Oscillation' (ENSO), which refers to
variations in the temperature of the surface of the tropical eastern
Pacific Ocean and in air surface pressure in the tropical western
Pacific. The warm oceanic phase, El Nino, accompanies high air
surface pressure in the western Pacific.

El Nino conditions: Warm water pool

approaches the South American coast. The
absence of cold upwelling increases
warming.

Cold Phase
An especially strong Walker circulation causes a La Nina, resulting in
cooler ocean temperatures due to increased upwelling.
La Nina is a coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon that is the
counterpart of El Nino as part of the broader El Nino Southern
Oscillation climate pattern.
During a period of La Nina, the sea surface temperature across the
equatorial eastern central Pacific will be lower than normal by 35C.
In the United States, an appearance of La Nina happens for at least
five months of La Nina conditions

La Nina conditions: Warm water is

farther west than usual.

Southern Oscillation
The Southern Oscillation is the atmospheric component of El Nino. This
component is an oscillation in surface air pressure between the tropical eastern
and the western Pacific Ocean waters.
The strength of the Southern Oscillation is measured by the Southern
Oscillation Index (SOI). The SOI is computed from fluctuations in the surface
air pressure difference between Tahiti (in the Pacific) and Darwin, Australia (on
the Indian Ocean)
El Nio episodes have negative SOI, meaning there is lower pressure over Tahiti
and higher pressure in Darwin.
La Nia episodes have positive SOI, meaning there is higher pressure in Tahiti
and lower in Darwin.

Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation

a mode of natural variability occurring
in the North Atlantic Ocean and which
has its principle expression in the sea
surface temperature (SST) field

Why is it an Oscillation?
an oscillation because the changes in atmospheric
pressure are essentially a back-and-forth switching
between two prevailing patterns, or modes: a
positive mode, in which a strongsubtropical highis
located over the Azores islands in the central North
Atlantic while a stronglow-pressure systemis centred
over Iceland, and a negative mode, in which
weaker high- and low-pressure systems are found over
the same locations.

What is NAO?
North Atlantic Oscillation is an irregular fluctuation of
atmospheric pressure over the North Atlantic ocean that has
strong effect on winter weather in Europe, Greenland, North
America, North Africa, and North Asia.
Occur in on a yearly basis or decades a part.

Development of Ideas
Danish priest and missionary Hans Egede made the first
observation of NAO in 1970.

Observation: In Green land, all winters are severe, yet

they are not a like. The Danes have noticed that when
the winter in Denmark was severe, as we perceived it,
the winter in Greenland in its manner was mild, and
conversely.
Sir Gilbert Walker, a British climatologist is the one who first
coined the term NOA in 1920s.

Two Phases of Oscillation

POSITIVE NAO
During winter:
the presence of the
strong high-pressure
and strong lowpressure systems
produces warmer,
wetter conditions
over northern
Europe and most of
northeastern North
America

 colder conditions prevail over parts of

Quebec, Newfoundland and Labrador ,
and western Greenland, and additional
sea ice develops in Hudson Bay, Baffin
Bay, and off western Greenland
The Mediterranean region, meanwhile,
experiences cool, dry winter weather

Two Phases of Oscillation

NEGATIVE NAO
During winters:
colder conditions are
brought to eastern North
America and northern
Europe mainly by morefrequent intrusions of
Arctic air
North America receives
additional snow, while
Europe receives less
precipitation than
normal

 During springs:
ocean-surface temperatures are colder
off the eastern seaboard of the United
States and Canada.

NAO Index
NAO index is based on the surface pressure (SLP) difference
between the Subtropical (Azores) high and and Subpolar
(Island) low.

How do we measure the NAO and how

has it varied?
The variability of NAO can be measured by
the difference between the mean winter SLP
at Gibraltar (sometimes Lisbon or Azores
instead of Gibraltar) and the mean winter
SLP at Iceland.

 During Sprin:
warm sea-surfacetemperaturesoccur along
the eastern seaboard of the United States and
Canadas Maritime Provinces. Such warm-water
conditions are possibly brought on by the close
approach of theGulf Streamto the coast,
which may reduce the influence of the cold
westward-moving longshore current that flows
along the southern coasts of Newfoundland and
Nova Scotia.

Climate Change

Climate change is a change in the statistical distribution of weather patterns

when that change lasts for an extended period of time (i.e., decades to millions
of years).

Climate change may refer to a change in average weather conditions, or in the

time variation of weather around longer-term average conditions (i.e., more or
fewer extreme weather events).

Climate change is caused by factors such as biotic processes, variations in solar

radiation received by Earth, plate tectonics, and volcanic eruptions. Certain
human activities have also been

Earths Temperature is a Balancing

Act
Earth's temperature depends on the balance between energy entering and leaving the
planets system. When incoming energy from the sun is absorbed by the Earth system, Earth
warms. When the suns energy is reflected back into space, Earth avoids warming. When
absorbed energy is released back into space, Earth cools. Many factors, both natural and
human, can cause changes in Earths energy balance, including:

Variations in the sun's energy reaching Earth

Changes in the reflectivity of Earths atmosphere and surface

Changes in the greenhouse effect, which affects the amount of heat retained by Earths
atmosphere

The Greenhouse Effect causes the

atmosphere to retain heat

When sunlight reaches Earths surface, it can either be reflected back into space
or absorbed by Earth. Once absorbed, the planet releases some of the energy back
into the atmosphere as heat (also called infrared radiation). Greenhouse gases
(GHGs) like water vapor (H O), carbon dioxide (CO ), and methane (CH ) absorb
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energy, slowing or preventing the loss of heat to space. In this way, GHGs act like
a blanket, making Earth warmer than it would otherwise be. This process is
commonly known as the greenhouse effect.

The Recent Role of the

Greenhouse Effect
Since the Industrial Revolution began around 1750, human activities have
contributed substantially to climate change by adding CO and other heat2
trapping gases to the atmosphere. These greenhouse gas emissions have increased
the greenhouse effect and caused Earths surface temperature to rise. The
primary human activity affecting the amount and rate of climate change is
greenhouse gas emissions from the burning of fossil fuels.

The Main Greenhouse Gases

The most important GHGs directly emitted by humans include carbon dioxide
(CO ), methane (CH ), nitrous oxide (N O), and several others. The sources and
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recent trends of these gases are detailed below.

Carbon dioxide

Carbon dioxide is the primary greenhouse gas that is contributing to recent

climate q change. CO is absorbed and emitted naturally as part of the carbon
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cycle, through plant and animal respiration, volcanic eruptions, and oceanatmosphere exchange. Human activities, such as the burning of fossil fuels and
changes in land use, release large amounts of CO , causing concentrations in the

Human activities currently release over 30 billion tons of CO2

into the atmosphere every year. The resultant build-up of CO2
in the atmosphere is like a tub filling with water, where more
water flows from the faucet than the drain can take away.

Methane

Methane (CH ) is produced through both natural and human activities. For example, natural
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wetlands, agricultural activities, and fossil fuel extraction and transport all emit CH .
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Methane is more abundant in Earths atmosphere now than at any time in at least the past 800,000
years. Due to human activities, CH concentrations increased sharply during most of the 20th
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century and are now more than two-and-a-half times pre-industrial levels. In recent decades, the
rate of increase has slowed considerably.

Nitrous oxide

Nitrous oxide is produced through natural and human activities, mainly through agricultural
activities and natural biological processes. Fuel burning and some other processes also create N O.
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Concentrations of N O have risen approximately 20% since the start of the Industrial Revolution,
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Changes in the suns energy

affect how much energy reaches
Earths system

Climate is influenced by natural changes that affect how much solar energy reaches Earth.
These changes include changes within the sun and changes in Earths orbit.

Changes occurring in the sun itself can affect the intensity of the sunlight that reaches Earths
surface. The intensity of the sunlight can cause either warming (during periods of stronger
solar intensity) or cooling (during periods of weaker solar intensity). The sun follows a natural
11-year cycle of small ups and downs in intensity, but the effect on Earths climate is small.

Changes in the shape of Earths orbit as well as the tilt and position of Earths axis can also

Changes in reflectivity affect how

much energy enters Earths system

When sunlight reaches Earth, it can be reflected or absorbed. The amount that is reflected or
absorbed depends on Earths surface and atmosphere. Light-colored objects and surfaces, like
snow and clouds, tend to reflect most sunlight, while darker objects and surfaces, like the ocean,
forests, or soil, tend to absorb more sunlight.

The term albedo refers to the amount of solar radiation reflected from an object or surface,
often expressed as a percentage. Earth as a whole has an albedo of about 30%, meaning that 70%
of the sunlight that reaches the planet is absorbed. [3] Absorbed sunlight warms Earths land,
water, and atmosphere.

Reflectivity is also affected by aerosols. Aerosols are small particles or liquid droplets in the
atmosphere that can absorb or reflect sunlight. Unlike greenhouse gases, the climate effects of
aerosols vary depending on what they are made of and where they are emitted. Those aerosols

The Recent Role of Reflectivity

Human changes in land use and land cover have changed Earths reflectivity. Processes such
as deforestation, reforestation, desertification, and urbanization often contribute to
changes in climate in the places they occur. These effects may be significant regionally, but
are smaller when averaged over the entire globe.

In addition, human activities have generally increased the number of aerosol particles in the
atmosphere. Overall, human-generated aerosols have a net cooling effect offsetting about
one-third of the total warming effect associated with human greenhouse gas emissions.
Reductions in overall aerosol emissions can therefore lead to more warming. However,
targeted reductions in black carbon emissions can reduce warming.