Statistics

Dr. Md. Mamunur Rashid,

Introduction to Statistics

Definition and Scope

Source and Types of Data
Collection of Data

Dr. Md. Mamunur Rashid,

Introduction to Statistics

Definition
Statistics is the science of learning from data, and of
measuring, controlling, and communicating uncertainty; and
it thereby provides the navigation essential for controlling
the course of scientific and societal advances (Davidian, M.
and Louis, T. A., 10.1126/science.1218685).

Dr. Md. Mamunur Rashid, 2014

Introduction to Statistics

Scope
Statisticians apply statistical thinking and methods to a wide variety of
scientific, social, and business endeavors in such areas as astronomy,
biology, education, economics, engineering, genetics, marketing,
medicine, psychology, public health, sports, among many. "The best thing
about being a statistician is that you get to play in everyone else's
backyard." (John Tukey, Bell Labs, Princeton University)

Dr. Md. Mamunur Rashid,

Introduction to Statistics

Definition and Scope

Source and Types of Data
Collection of Data

Dr. Md. Mamunur Rashid, 2014

Introduction to Statistics

Source and Types of Data

There are mainly four types of statistical data:
Primary statistical data
Secondary statistical data
Qualitative statistical data
Quantitative statistical data.

Dr. Md. Mamunur Rashid, 2014

Introduction to Statistics

Definition and Scope

Source and Type of Data
Collection of Data

Dr. Md. Mamunur Rashid, 2014

Introduction to Statistics
Collection of Data
Data can be obtained from three important source

Secondary Source
Internal Records
Primary Source

Dr. Md. Mamunur Rashid, 2014

Sampling Techniques

Probability
Non-probability Sampling

Dr. Md. Mamunur Rashid, 2014

Presentation of Data

Frequency distribution
Tables
Chart
Diagram
Pie Chart

Dr. Md. Mamunur Rashid, 2014

Measures of Central
Tendency

Mean
Median
Mode

Dr. Md. Mamunur Rashid, 2014

Measures of Dispersion

Range
Mean deviation
Standard deviation

Dr. Md. Mamunur Rashid, 2014

Index Number

Price Index
Cost of living Index

Dr. Md. Mamunur Rashid, 2014

Correlation & Regression

Analysis

Concept
Simple
Co-efficient
Rank

Dr. Md. Mamunur Rashid, 2014

Probability

Probability Axioms
Sample Space Event
Law of Probability
Types of Probability
Probability Distribution

Dr. Md. Mamunur Rashid, 2014

Test of Hypothesis

T-test
Z-Test

SPSS Software

Dr. Md. Mamunur Rashid, 2014

Case Study

Dr. Md. Mamunur Rashid, 2014

CPM/PERT network for the Bank

Project
Let us draw CPM/PERT network for
the bank project as discussed earlier,
using the above symbols which is
shown in figure 3:
Furniture
Locate
facilities

Order
furniture

received
and setup

Beginning of
the project

Remodel
Move in

Interview

Dr. Md. Mamunur Rashid, 2014

Hire and
Train

Let us consider the Bank project again for analysis with deterministic time.
Activity relationship and their estimated duration are shown in Below
LF

SF

Fr

5
6

7
3

Furniture
received

M 8
S1
0

R 6
11

LF-Locate
facilities

SF-Select
Furniture

M-Move in

R-Remodel

I 3
S-Begin or start
of the project

H 4
I-interview

9
Hire and
train

CPM/PERT Network for the Bank Project

LF-Locate facilities
LF

SF

0 8 8

S1
000

Fr

8 6

14

SF-Select
Furniture

R6
8 11 19

14

7
17
3

Furniture
received

M 8
M-Move in

19

20

R-Remodel

I 3
S-Begin or start
of the project

0 4 4

H 4
I-interview

13

Hire and
train

CPM/PERT Network for the Bank Project

SF-Select
Furniture

LF-Locate
facilities

LF

SF

0 8 8
0 0 8

Fr

8 6

14

10

16

14
16

7
3
2

received
17
19

M8

R-Remodel

S1
000

R 6
8

11

19

000

19

S-Begin or start
of the project

Furniture

Dr. Md. Mamunur Rashid, 2014

M-Move in

0 4 4
6

20

19

20

H 4

I 3
6

19

10

I-interview

13

10

19

Hire and
train

Probabilistic Time Estimates

The probabilistic approach involves three times estimates

for each activity instead of one:
1. Optimistic time: The length of time required under
optimum conditions; represented the letter t o.
2. Pessimistic time : The length of time required under the
worst conditions; represented by the letter t p.
3. Most likely time: the most probable amount of time
required, represented the letter t m.

Dr. Md. Mamunur Rashid, 2014

Probabilistic Time Estimates

(contd)

These time estimate can be made by managers or others with

knowledge about the project.
Network analysis uses the average or expected time for each
activity Te and the variance of each activity time
. The
expected time is computed as a weighted average of the three
time estimates.
Te= (to+ 4tm +tp)/6
2

Probabilistic Time Estimates (contd)

The variance is found by squaring the
standard deviation.
2
Thus, =[(tp-to)/ 6 ]2 or
=(tp-to)2/36

--Optim.
Pessim.
Optim.
22 Pessim.
22
=(
)

Activity
Activity vvariance,
ariance, = (
Dr. Md. Mamunur Rashid, 2014

66

Probabilistic Time Estimates

cp

(contd)

=[(variances of activities on
critical path )]1/2

Probabilistic Time Estimates

(contd)

0
Activity start

to

Optimistic time

Dr. Md. Mamunur Rashid, 2014

tm te
Most likely time
( mode)

tp

Pessimistic
time

Table-2 Showing optimistic, most

likely and pessimistic time estimate
Code

Activity to

tm

tp

Te

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8

S
Lf
I
H
Sf
R
Fr
M

0
8
4
9
6
11
3
1

0
10
5
10
7
12
4
1

0
8
4
9
6
11
3
1

0
6
3
8
5
10
2
1

cp
0.0
0.66
0.33
0.33
0.33
0.33
0.33
0.0

3.2.5 Probabilistic Time Estimates (contd)

Now, let us calculate Te and cp

for

each of the project activity as shown in the

above table.
A unique feature of probabilistic approach
is that it enables the analyst to assess the
effect of uncertainty on project completion
time. :

Probabilistic Time Estimates (contd)

Z transformation formula.
Z
Z=
=

D
D -- T
TEE

22
cp
cp

where, D= schedule or due date of the project

TE=Earliest expected completion time for
last2 activity
cp = Sum of the variances along the critical
path

Probabilistic Time Estimates

(contd)

For example, if the vice president of the

bank would like to know the probability of
completing the project by 22 weeks?

We Know, D=22 , Te=20; cp =0.99

Z=(22-20)/0.99=2.02
Now from normal probability table for
Z=2.02 the probability of completing the
project is 0.9783 that is 97.83%.

Thanks for your attentions !

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