Professional Documents
Culture Documents
BUSINESS
STATISTICS
by
AMIR D. ACZEL
&
JAYAVEL SOUNDERPANDIAN
7th edition.
Prepared by Lloyd Jaisingh, Morehead State
University
Chapter 5
5-2
Statistics
Sample Statistics as Estimators of Population Parameters
Sampling Distributions
Estimators and Their Properties
Degrees of Freedom
The Template
5-3
5 LEARNING OBJECTIVES
After studying this chapter you should be able to:
5-4
Statistical Inference:
Predict and forecast values of
population parameters...
Test hypotheses about values
of population parameters...
Make decisions...
Make
Make
generalizationsabout
about
generalizations
thecharacteristics
characteristicsofof
the
population...
aapopulation...
Onthe
thebasis
basisof
of
On
observationsofofaa
observations
sample,aapart
partofofaa
sample,
population
population
5-5
Democrats
Population
Democrats
Population
Republicans
Biased
Sample
Republicans
Unbiased,
representative sample
drawn at random from
the entire population.
Biased,
unrepresentative
sample drawn from
people who have cars
and/or telephones
and/or read the Digest.
5-6
A population parameter
is a numerical measure of
a summary characteristic
of a population.
Anestimator
estimatorofofaapopulation
populationparameter
parameterisisaasample
samplestatistic
statisticused
usedtotoestimate
estimateor
or
An
predictthe
thepopulation
populationparameter.
parameter.
predict
Anestimate
estimateofofaaparameter
parameterisisaaparticular
particularnumerical
numericalvalue
valueofofaasample
samplestatistic
statistic
An
obtainedthrough
throughsampling.
sampling.
obtained
pointestimate
estimateisisaasingle
singlevalue
valueused
usedasasan
anestimate
estimateofofaapopulation
population
AApoint
parameter.
parameter.
5-7
Estimators
The sample
sample mean,
mean,X ,, isis the
the most
most common
common
The
estimator of
of the
the population
population mean,
mean,
estimator
The sample
sample variance,
variance, ss22,, isis the
the most
most common
common
The
22.
estimator
of
the
population
variance,
5-8
Estimators
5-9
p
N
5-10
Population mean ()
Frequency distribution
of the population
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
Sample points
Sample mean ( X)
X
X
X
5-11
5-12
5-13
5-14
XP(X)
XP(X)
(X-)x)
(X-
x
(X-)x2)2
(X-
x
P(X)(X-)x2)2
P(X)(X-
x
11
22
3
3
44
55
66
77
88
0.125
0.125
0.125
0.125
0.125
0.125
0.125
0.125
0.125
0.125
0.125
0.125
0.125
0.125
0.125
0.125
0.125
0.125
0.250
0.250
0.375
0.375
0.500
0.500
0.625
0.625
0.750
0.750
0.875
0.875
1.000
1.000
-3.5
-3.5
-2.5
-2.5
-1.5
-1.5
-0.5
-0.5
0.5
0.5
1.5
1.5
2.5
2.5
3.5
3.5
12.25
12.25
6.25
6.25
2.25
2.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
2.25
2.25
6.25
6.25
12.25
12.25
1.53125
1.53125
0.78125
0.78125
0.28125
0.28125
0.03125
0.03125
0.03125
0.03125
0.28125
0.28125
0.78125
0.78125
1.53125
1.53125
1.000
1.000
4.500
4.500
5.25000
5.25000
P(X)
XX
0.1
0.0
1
E(X)== ==4.5
4.5
E(X)
22 = 5.25
V(X)
=
V(X) = = 5.25
SD(X)== ==2.2913
2.2913
SD(X)
5-15
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
There are 8*8 = 64 different but equallylikely samples of size 2 that can be drawn
(with replacement) from a uniform
population of the integers from 1 to 8:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
5-16
XP(X)
X- X
(X- X)
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
0.015625
0.031250
0.046875
0.062500
0.078125
0.093750
0.109375
0.125000
0.109375
0.093750
0.078125
0.062500
0.046875
0.031250
0.015625
0.015625
0.046875
0.093750
0.156250
0.234375
0.328125
0.437500
0.562500
0.546875
0.515625
0.468750
0.406250
0.328125
0.234375
0.125000
-3.5
-3.0
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
12.25
9.00
6.25
4.00
2.25
1.00
0.25
0.00
0.25
1.00
2.25
4.00
6.25
9.00
12.25
1.000000
4.500000
P(X)(X- X)
0.191406
0.281250
0.292969
0.250000
0.175781
0.093750
0.027344
0.000000
0.027344
0.093750
0.175781
0.250000
0.292969
0.281250
0.191406
2.625000
0.10
P(X)
0.05
0.00
1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0
E ( X ) X 4.5
V ( X ) 2X 2.625
SD( X ) X 1.6202
5-17
P(X)
Comparingthe
thepopulation
populationdistribution
distributionand
andthe
the
Comparing
samplingdistribution
distributionofofthe
themean:
mean:
sampling
Thesampling
samplingdistribution
distributionisismore
morebellbell The
shapedand
andsymmetric.
symmetric.
shaped
Bothhave
havethe
thesame
samecenter.
center.
Both
Thesampling
samplingdistribution
distributionofofthe
themean
meanisis
The
morecompact,
compact,with
withaasmaller
smallervariance.
variance.
more
0.1
0.0
1
0.10
P(X)
0.05
0.00
1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0
5-18
E( X )
X
The variance of the sample mean is equal to the population variance divided by
the sample size:
V(X)
2
X
2
X
The standard deviation of the sample mean, known as the standard error of
the mean,
mean is equal to the population standard deviation divided by the square
root of the sample size:
SD( X )
X
5-19
X ~ N (, )
n
2
f(X)
Thismeans
meansthat,
that,as
asthe
the
This
samplesize
sizeincreases,
increases,the
the
sample
samplingdistribution
distributionof
ofthe
the
sampling
samplemean
meanremains
remains
sample
centeredon
onthe
thepopulation
population
centered
mean,but
butbecomes
becomesmore
more
mean,
compactlydistributed
distributedaround
around
compactly
thatpopulation
populationmean.
mean.
that
Sampling Distribution: n = 4
0.2
Sampling Distribution: n = 2
0.1
Normal population
Normal population
0.0
5-20
P(X)
0.15
0.10
0.05
0.00
n = 20
P(X)
0.2
0.1
0.0
When sampling
sampling from
from aa population
population
When
with mean
mean and
and finite
finite standard
standard
with
deviation ,
, the
the sampling
sampling
deviation
distribution of
of the
the sample
samplemean
mean will
will
distribution
tend to
to aa normal
normal distribution
distribution with
with
tend
mean
and
standard
deviation
as
mean and standard deviation n as
the sample
sample size
size becomes
becomes large
large
the
(n >30).
>30).
(n
Large n
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.0
For large
large enough
enough n:
n: X ~ N ( , / n)
For
2
f(X)
0.3
5-21
Uniform
Skewed
General
Population
n=2
n = 30
5-22
Mercurymakes
makesaa2.4
2.4liter
literV-6
V-6engine,
engine,the
theLaser
LaserXRi,
XRi,used
usedin
inspeedboats.
speedboats.
Mercury
Thecompanys
companysengineers
engineersbelieve
believethe
theengine
enginedelivers
deliversan
anaverage
averagepower
powerof
of
The
220horsepower
horsepowerand
andthat
thatthe
thestandard
standarddeviation
deviationof
ofpower
powerdelivered
deliveredisis15
15
220
HP. AApotential
potentialbuyer
buyerintends
intendsto
tosample
sample100
100engines
engines(each
(eachengine
engineisisto
tobe
be
HP.
runaasingle
singletime).
time). What
Whatisisthe
theprobability
probabilitythat
thatthe
thesample
samplemean
meanwill
willbe
beless
less
run
than217HP?
217HP?
than
X 217
P ( X 217) P
n
n
P Z
217 220
217 220
P Z
15
15
10
100
P ( Z 2) 0.0228
5-23
Mercurymakes
makesaa2.4
2.4liter
literV-6
V-6engine,
engine,the
theLaser
LaserXRi,
XRi,used
usedin
inspeedboats.
speedboats.
Mercury
Thecompanys
companysengineers
engineersbelieve
believethe
theengine
enginedelivers
deliversan
anaverage
averagepower
powerof
of
The
220horsepower
horsepowerand
andthat
thatthe
thestandard
standarddeviation
deviationof
ofpower
powerdelivered
deliveredisis15
15
220
HP. AApotential
potentialbuyer
buyerintends
intendsto
tosample
sample100
100engines
engines(each
(eachengine
engineisisto
tobe
be
HP.
runaasingle
singletime).
time). What
Whatisisthe
theprobability
probabilitythat
thatthe
thesample
samplemean
meanwill
willbe
beless
less
run
than217HP?
217HP?
than
5-24
Example 5-2
EPS Mean Distribution
2.00 - 2.49
2.50 - 2.99
3.00 - 3.49
25
Frequency
20
3.50 - 3.99
4.00 - 4.49
4.50 - 4.99
15
10
5.00 - 5.49
5.50 - 5.99
6.00 - 6.49
6.50 - 6.99
5
0
Range
7.00 - 7.49
7.50 - 7.99
5-25
Students t Distribution
thepopulation
populationstandard
standarddeviation,
deviation,,
,isisunknown,
unknown,
replacewith
with
unknown replace
IfIfthe
unknown
thesample
samplestandard
standarddeviation,
deviation,s.s. IfIfthe
thepopulation
populationisisnormal,
normal,the
the
the
resultingstatistic:
statistic: t X
resulting
s/ n
hasaattdistribution
distributionwith
with(n
(n--1)
1)degrees
degreesof
offreedom.
freedom.
freedom
has
freedom
Standard normal
t, df=20
t, df=10
5-26
P(X)
Thesample
sampleproportion
proportionisisthe
thepercentage
percentageof
of
The
successesininnnbinomial
binomialtrials.
trials. ItItisisthe
the
successes
numberof
ofsuccesses,
successes,X,
X,divided
dividedby
bythe
the
number
numberof
oftrials,
trials,n.n.
number
n=2, p = 0.3
0 .5
0 .3
0 .2
0 .1
0 .0
0
X
n=10,p=0.3
X
n
0.2
P(X)
Sample proportion: p
0.3
0.1
0.0
1
10
n=15, p = 0.3
0.2
P(X)
Asthe
thesample
samplesize,
size,n,n,increases,
increases,the
thesampling
sampling
As
distributionof
of p approaches
approachesaanormal
normal
distribution
distributionwith
withmean
meanppand
andstandard
standard
distribution
deviation p(1 p)
deviation
n
0.1
0.0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 1415
15 1515 15 15 15 15 15 15 1515 1515 15 1515
^
p
5-27
p 0.25
p p
P ( p 0.20 ) P
np (100 )( 0.25) 25 E ( p )
p (1 p )
n
p (1 p )
n
(.25)(.75)
100
0.001875 V ( p )
0.001875 0.04330127 SD ( p )
p (1 p )
n
(.25)(.75)
P z
p (1 p )
.20 .25
P z
100
P ( z 1.15) 0.8749
.20 p
.05
.0433
5-28
recentyears,
years,convertible
convertiblesports
sportscoupes
coupeshave
havebecome
becomevery
verypopular
popularininJapan.
Japan. Toyota
Toyota
InInrecent
currentlyshipping
shippingCelicas
CelicastotoLos
LosAngeles,
Angeles,where
whereaacustomizer
customizerdoes
doesaaroof
rooflift
liftand
and
isiscurrently
shipsthem
themback
backtotoJapan.
Japan. Suppose
Supposethat
that25%
25%ofofall
allJapanese
Japaneseininaagiven
givenincome
incomeand
and
ships
lifestylecategory
categoryare
areinterested
interestedininbuying
buyingCelica
Celicaconvertibles.
convertibles. AArandom
randomsample
sampleofof100
100
lifestyle
Japaneseconsumers
consumersininthe
thecategory
categoryofofinterest
interestisistotobe
beselected.
selected. What
Whatisisthe
theprobability
probability
Japanese
thatatatleast
least20%
20%ofofthose
thoseininthe
thesample
samplewill
willexpress
expressan
aninterest
interestininaaCelica
Celicaconvertible?
convertible?
that
5-29
Desirableproperties
propertiesofofestimators
estimatorsinclude:
include:
Desirable
Unbiasedness
Unbiasedness
Efficiency
Efficiency
Consistency
Consistency
Sufficiency
Sufficiency
5-30
Unbiasedness
Anestimator
estimatorisissaid
saidto
tobe
beunbiased
unbiasedififits
itsexpected
expectedvalue
valueisisequal
equalto
to
An
thepopulation
populationparameter
parameterititestimates.
estimates.
the
Forexample,
example,E(X)=so
E(X)=sothe
thesample
samplemean
meanisisan
anunbiased
unbiasedestimator
estimatorof
of
For
thepopulation
populationmean.
mean. Unbiasedness
Unbiasednessisisan
anaverage
averageor
orlong-run
long-run
the
property. The
Themean
meanof
ofany
anysingle
singlesample
samplewill
willprobably
probablynot
notequal
equalthe
the
property.
populationmean,
mean,but
butthe
theaverage
averageof
ofthe
themeans
meansof
ofrepeated
repeated
population
independentsamples
samplesfrom
fromaapopulation
populationwill
willequal
equalthe
thepopulation
population
independent
mean.
mean.
Anysystematic
systematicdeviation
deviationof
ofthe
theestimator
estimatorfrom
fromthe
thepopulation
population
Any
parameterof
ofinterest
interestisiscalled
calledaabias.
bias.
bias
parameter
bias
5-31
Bias
An unbiased estimator is on
target on average.
A biased estimator is
off target on average.
5-32
Efficiency
Anestimator
estimatorisisefficient
efficientififitithas
hasaarelatively
relativelysmall
smallvariance
variance(and
(and
An
standarddeviation).
deviation).
standard
5-33
Consistency
n = 100
n = 10
Anestimator
estimatorisissaid
saidto
tobe
besufficient
sufficientififititcontains
containsall
allthe
theinformation
information
An
inthe
thedata
dataabout
aboutthe
theparameter
parameterititestimates.
estimates.
in
5-34
5-35
(
x
x
)
2
2
E (s ) E
(n 1)
(x x)
n
5-36
x2=12
x3=16
x4=?
x
14
n
Given the values of three data points and the sample mean, the
value of the fourth data point can be determined:
x 12 14 16 x4
x=
14
n
4
x4 56 12 14 16
x
12 14 16 x 56
4
56
x44 = 14
5-37
x2=12
x3=?
x4=?
x 14
14
n
4
x
12 14 x x4 56
3
5-38
(x x)
(n 1)
5-39
Example 5-4
sampleof
ofsize
size10
10isisgiven
givenbelow.
below. We
Weare
aretotochoose
choosethree
threedifferent
differentnumbers
numbers
AAsample
fromwhich
whichthe
thedeviations
deviationsare
aretotobe
betaken.
taken. The
Thefirst
firstnumber
numberisistotobe
beused
usedfor
forthe
the
from
firstfive
fivesample
samplepoints;
points;the
thesecond
secondnumber
numberisistotobe
beused
usedfor
forthe
thenext
nextthree
threesample
sample
first
points;and
andthe
thethird
thirdnumber
numberisistotobe
beused
usedfor
forthe
thelast
lasttwo
twosample
samplepoints.
points.
points;
Sample #
10
Sample
Point
93
97
60
72
96
83
59
66
88
53
i.
Note: SSD x x
5-40
5-41
Sample Point
Mean
Deviations
Deviation
Squared
93
83.6
9.4
88.36
97
83.6
13.4
179.56
60
83.6
-23.6
556.96
72
83.6
-11.6
134.56
96
83.6
12.4
153.76
83
69.33
13.6667
186.7778
59
69.33
-10.3333
106.7778
66
69.33
-3.3333
11.1111
88
70.5
17.5
306.25
10
53
70.5
-17.5
306.25
SSD
2030.367
SSD/df
290.0524
5-42
SamplingDistribution
Distributionof
ofaaSample
SampleMean
Mean
Sampling
5-43
SamplingDistribution
Distributionof
ofaaSample
SampleMean
Mean(continued)
(continued)
Sampling
5-44
SamplingDistribution
Distributionof
ofaaSample
SampleProportion
Proportion
Sampling
5-45
SamplingDistribution
Distributionof
ofaaSample
SampleProportion
Proportion(continued)
(continued)
Sampling
5-46
200
Frequency
250
150
100
50
0
1
10
11
12
13
14
15
5-47
5-48
97.8
97.8
98.4
98.4
99.0
99.0
99.6
99.6
100.2
100.2
100.8
100.8
101.4
101.4
102.0
102.0
99.975
99.975
100.000
100.000
100.025
100.025
100.050
100.050
100.075
100.075
5-49