The Human Population and the

Environment

Basic Concepts of Population

Dynamics
A population is a group of individuals of the
same species living in the same area.
A species is all individuals that are capable
of interbreeding.
A species is made up of populations.

Basic Concepts of Population

Dynamics
Five key properties of any population

Abundance
Birth rates
Death rates
Growth rates
Age structure

Basic Concepts of Population

Dynamics
Demographics is the statistical study of
human populations.
The general study of population changes is
called Population Dynamics.
How rapidly a pop changes depends on GR
Growth rate = (birth rate death rate)

Age Structure
The proportion of the population at each
age.
Implication for current and future social and
economic conditions - What if no one is having
babies? What if 70% of the population is under
age 30? (true in several countries)
Impact on the environment - do older people
have as large an impact as young people?

Age Structure
Four general types
Pyramid- population w/ many young and high
death rate (short average lifetime)
Inverted pyramid- top heavy (Japan?)
Column- birth rate and death rate are low and a
high % of pop is elderly
Column w/ a bulge- event in the past caused a
high birth or death rate for some age group

Age Structure

Kinds of Population Growth

Exponential Growth
A pop increasing by a constant percentage per
unit time.

Human pop growth peaked at 2.1%

1965-1970

Human pop growth is now appr. 1.2%

History of Human Population

Growth
1. Early period of hunter and gathers - the total
population was < a few million (>10,000 yrs ago)
2. Rise of agriculture- allowed for increase in
population density and increased human population
3. Industrial revolution - improvements in health
and food supply led to rapid inc in population
4. Today - the rate of growth is slow in
industrialized nations but high in less developed
nations

Human Population Growth

Human Population Growth

Present Human Population Rates

of Growth
Current world population >6.6 billion
With annual growth rate of 1.2%

At this rate 84 million people added to

Earth in 1 year
Correlation between poverty and population
growth
Positive feedback

Present Human Population Rates

of Growth
Current US growth
rate 0.6%

Projecting Future Population

Growth
Doubling time (time required for a pop to
double in size) is very sensitive to growth rate

It changes quickly as g.r. changes

US w/ a g.r. of 0.6% has a doubling time of 117 yrs
Nicaragua w/ a g.r. of 2.7%, d.t. = 26 yrs
Northern Europe w/ a g.r. of 0.2%, d.t. = 350 yrs

Logistic Growth Curve

S shaped curve
Increase exponentially only temporarily
Then growth rate would decline
Reach an upper pop limit @ logistic carrying
capacity (g.r. = 0)

Logistic Growth Curve

Little evidence that animal populations
actually follow this growth curve
Involves assumptions
Constant environment
Constant carrying capacity
Homogeneous population

Unlikely if death rate continue to decrease

Demographic Transition
Three stage pattern of change in birth rates
and death rates
Occurred during the process of industrial and
economic development of Western nations
Leads to decline in pop growth rate

Demographic Transition
Stage 1
Nonindustrial country
Birth rate and death rate high, growth rate low

Stage 2
Period of high growth rate
W/ industrialization death rate declines but
birth rate stays high

Demographic Transition
Stage 3
Birth rate drops toward death rate
Growth rate decreases
Will take place if parents come to believe that
having a small family is to their benefit.

Population and Technology

Impact that all humans pose on the
environment is a result of two factors
Number of people
Impact of each person on the environment

Total impact (Ti) of the human population

on environment = average individual impact
x total # of individuals or
Ti = P x I

Population and Technology

Modern technology increases the use of resources and
enables us to effect the environment in new ways.
E.g. CFCs, automobiles
Therefore we see that although technology lowers birth
rates and decreases death rates, it increases the the average
environmental impact per person

Human Carrying Capacity

How many people can live on Earth at the same
time?
Answer depends on the quality of life people
desire and are willing to accept.
Estimates vary based on assumptions made.
distribution-problem - largely its a matter of where
people are and how many there are in that area

Quality of life
If people of the world were to live at the
same level as those in US
High resource use
Carrying capacity would be low

If people of the world were to live at the

same level as those in Bangladesh
Poverty and heavy drain on biodiversity
Carrying capacity would be much higher

Potential Effects of Medical Advances on

Demographic Transition
Second decline in death rate
Leads to Stage IV

A second stable state would arise if birth rate then

falls.. Leading to
Stage V

Decision that might need to be made

Stop research on diseases of old age?

Reduce birth rate?
Wait for Malthus projections to come true?
Disallow certain people from having babies?

Human Death Rates

Acute or epidemic diseases - appear rapidly and
affect a large numbers before declining.
Chronic disease- always present in a pop, typically
occurring in small as result of long environmental
exposure. (Smoking: lung cancer)
Emerging diseases could effect both industrial and
less developed nations because of long range rapid
transportation
SARS
West Nile Virus
Epidemic flu (or Pandemic - H1N1 - Swine flu)

Longevity and Its Effect on

Population Growth
Maximum lifetime- maximum possible age to
which an individual of a species can live.
Life expectancy- the average # of years an
individual can expect to live.
Higher in developed nation - due to availability of
sanitation and technology
Japan highest, 82 years
Developing nations - Botswana, Lesotho and Swaziland
lowest, 35 years; notice the dramatic differential!

Limiting Factors
Human populations will eventually be
limited by some factor or combo of factors
Short-term - affect pop during the year in which
they become limiting
Intermediate-term - effects are apparent after 1
yr but before 10yrs.
Long-term effects are not apparent for 10yrs

How Can We Achieve Zero

Population Growth?
Simplest and
one of the most
effective is to
delay the age of
1st childbearing
by women.

How Can We Achieve Zero

Population Growth?
Birth Control
Breast-feeding can delay resumption of
ovulation
Family planning methods from abstinence to
induction of sterility w/ natural agents
ONLY Zero population growth will allow for a
sustainable future.

National Programs to Reduce

Birth Rates
The choice of population control methods is
an issue that involves social, moral and
religious beliefs
Wide range of approaches
Information
Accesses to birth control
Rewards and penalties - Canadian system example

What will our future look like?

New York City

Billings, Montana