Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Chapter 13
How Forecasting
fits the Operations Management
Philosophy
Operations As a Competitive
Weapon
Operations Strategy
Project Management
Process Strategy
Process Analysis
Process Performance and Quality
Constraint Management
Process Layout
Lean Systems
Forecasting at Unilever
Customer demand planning (CDP), which is critical
to managing value chains, begins with accurate
forecasts.
Unilever has a state-of-the-art CDP system that
blends historical shipment data with promotional data
and current order data.
Statistical forecasts are adjusted with planned
promotion predictions.
Forecasts are frequently reviewed and adjusted with
point of sale data.
This has enabled Unilever to reduce its inventory
and improved its customer service.
2007 Pearson Education
Demand Patterns
Demand Patterns
Horizontal
Trend
Seasonal
Cyclical
Designing the
Forecast System
Deciding what to forecast
Level of aggregation.
Units of measure.
Quantitative methods
Causal
Time-series
2007 Pearson Education
Judgment Methods
Sales force estimates: The forecasts that are compiled from
estimates of future demands made periodically by members of
a companys sales force.
Executive opinion: A forecasting method in which the
opinions, experience, and technical knowledge of one or more
managers are summarized to arrive at a single forecast.
Executive opinion can also be used for technological
forecasting to keep abreast of the latest advances in
technology.
Market research: A systematic approach to determine
external consumer interest in a service or product by creating
and testing hypotheses through data-gathering surveys.
Delphi method: A process of gaining consensus from a group
of experts while maintaining their anonymity.
2007 Pearson Education
Causal Methods
Linear Regression
Causal methods are used when historical data are
available and the relationship between the factor to
be forecasted and other external or internal factors
can be identified.
Linear regression: A causal method in which one
variable (the dependent variable) is related to one or
more independent variables by a linear equation.
Dependent variable: The variable that one wants to
forecast.
Independent variables: Variables that are assumed
to affect the dependent variable and thereby cause
the results observed in the past.
2007 Pearson Education
Causal Methods
Linear Regression
Dependent variable
Deviation,
Estimate of or error
Y from
regression
equation
Regression
equation:
Y = a + bX
Y = dependent variable
X = independent variable
a = Y-intercept of the line
b = slope of the line
Actual
value
of Y
Value of X used
to estimate Y
X
Independent variable
2007 Pearson Education
Linear Regression
Example 13.1
The following are sales and advertising data for the past 5 months for
brass door hinges. The marketing manager says that next month the
company will spend $1,750 on advertising for the product. Use linear
regression to develop an equation and a forecast for this product.
Month
Sales
(000 units)
Advertising
(000 $)
1
2
3
4
5
264
116
165
101
209
2.5
1.3
1.4
1.0
2.0
a =
b =
r =
r2 =
syx=
8.135
109.229X
0.98
0.96
15.603
300
250
200
Y = a + bX
Y = 8.135 + 109.229X
150
100
50
a =
b =
r =
r2 =
syx=
8.135
109.229X
0.98
0.96
15.603
|
|
|
|
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
Advertising (thousands of dollars)
Week
Patient
Arrivals
1
2
3
400
380
411
F5
780
3
3
F6
801.667
3
3
2007 Pearson
2007 Pearson