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Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel, 5e 2008 Pearson Prentice-Hall, Inc.
Chap 9-1
Learning Objectives
In this chapter, you will learn:
The basic principles of hypothesis testing
How to use hypothesis testing to test a mean or
proportion
The assumptions of each hypothesis-testing
procedure, how to evaluate them, and the
consequences if they are seriously violated
How to avoid the pitfalls involved in hypothesis
testing
Ethical issues involved in hypothesis testing
Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel, 5e
Chap 9-2
The Hypothesis
A hypothesis is a claim (assumption) about a
population parameter:
population mean
Chap 9-3
a sample statistic.
Chap 9-4
hypothesis is true
Similar to the notion of innocent until
proven guilty
It refers to the status quo
Always contains = , or sign
May or may not be rejected
Chap 9-5
Chap 9-6
H1: 50
Population
Sample
Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel, 5e
Chap 9-7
Chap 9-8
20
If it is unlikely that you
would get a sample
mean of this value ...
= 50
If H0 is true
... if in fact this were
the population mean
X
... then you reject
the null hypothesis
that = 50.
Chap 9-9
Chap 9-10
Region of
Rejection
Critical Values
Chap 9-11
Chap 9-12
H0 True
H0 False
Do Not
Reject H0
No Error
Probability 1 -
Type II Error
Probability
Reject H0
Type I Error
Probability
No Error
Probability 1 -
Chap 9-13
Level of Significance,
Claim: The population
mean age is 50.
H0: = 50
H1: 50
H0: 50
H1: > 50
Represents
critical value
Two-tail test
Rejection
region is
shaded
Upper-tail test
H0: 50
H1: < 50
Lower-tail test
0
Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel, 5e
Chap 9-14
Chap 9-15
cutoff values
(critical values),
defining the
/2
regions of
rejection
/2
X
Reject H0
Do not reject H0
-Z
Reject H0
+Z
Lower
critical
value
Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel, 5e
Upper
critical
value
Chap 9-16
H 1: 3
Chap 9-17
n = 100, X = 2.84
( = 0.8 is assumed known from past company records)
So the test statistic is:
X
2.84 3
.16
2.0
0.8
.08
n
100
Chap 9-18
Reject H0 if
Z < -1.96 or
Z > 1.96;
otherwise do
not reject H0
Reject H0
-Z= -1.96
= .05/2
Do not reject H0
Reject H0
+Z= +1.96
Chap 9-19
Chap 9-20
Chap 9-21
Chap 9-22
Chap 9-23
Chap 9-24
/2 = .025
/2 = .025
.0228
.0228
p-value
=.0228 + .0228 = .
0456
-1.96
-2.0
1.96
2.0
Chap 9-25
/2 = .025
/2 = .025
.0228
.0228
-1.96
-2.0
1.96
2.0
Chap 9-26
0.8
to
100
2.84 (1.96)
0.8
100
2.6832 2.9968
Since this interval does not contain the hypothesized
Chap 9-27
Chap 9-28
Reject H0
-Z
Do not reject
H0
Critical value
Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel, 5e
Chap 9-29
Z
X
Do not reject
H0
Reject
H0
Critical value
Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel, 5e
Chap 9-30
Chap 9-31
1- = .90
= .10
Do not reject H0
Reject H0
Chap 9-32
.10
a = .10
.90
0 1.28
.07
.08
.09
Critical Value
= 1.28
Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel, 5e
Chap 9-33
0.88
10
n
64
Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel, 5e
Chap 9-34
= .10
1.28
Z = .88
Chap 9-35
1.28
Z = .88
Reject H0
P( X 53.1)
53.1 52.0
P Z
10/ 64
Chap 9-36
Hypothesis Testing:
Unknown
If the population standard deviation is
Chap 9-37
Hypothesis Testing:
Unknown
Recall that the t test statistic with n-1
t n -1
S
n
Chap 9-38
Hypothesis Testing:
Unknown Example
The mean cost of a hotel room in New York is said
to be $168 per night. A random sample of 25 hotels
resulted in X = $172.50 and S = 15.40. Test at the
= 0.05 level.
(A stem-and-leaf display and a normal probability plot
indicate the data are approximately normally distributed )
H0: = 168
H1:
168 Excel, 5e
Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft
Chap 9-39
Hypothesis Testing:
Unknown Example
H0: = 168
H1: 168
= 0.05
n = 25
/2=.025
/2=.025
is unknown, so
use a t statistic
Critical Value:
t24 = 2.0639
Reject H0
-t n-1,/2
Do not reject H0
-2.0639
Reject H0
t n-1,/2
2.0639
Chap 9-40
Hypothesis Testing:
Unknown Example
X
172.50 168
t n 1
1.46
S
15.40
n
25
a/2=.025
a/2=.025
-t n-1,/2
-2.0639
1.46
t n-1,/2
2.0639
Chap 9-41
Hypothesis Testing:
Connection to Confidence Intervals
For X = 172.5, S = 15.40 and n = 25, the 95%
166.14 178.86
Since this interval contains the hypothesized
Chap 9-42
Hypothesis Testing:
Unknown
Recall that you assume that the sample
Chap 9-43
Hypothesis Testing
Proportions
Involves categorical variables
Two possible outcomes
Success (possesses a certain characteristic)
Failure (does not possesses that
characteristic)
Fraction or proportion of the population in
Chap 9-44
Hypothesis Testing
Proportions
Sample proportion in the success category is denoted by p
X
number of successes in sample
p
n
sample size
When both n and n(1-) are at least 5, p can be
(1 )
p
n
Chap 9-45
Hypothesis Testing
Proportions
The sampling distribution of p is
p
(1 )
n
Chap 9-46
Hypothesis Testing
Proportions Example
A marketing company claims that it receives
8% responses from its mailing. To test this
claim, a random sample of 500 were
surveyed with 30 responses. Test at the = .
05 significance level.
First, check:
n = (500)(.08) = 40
n(1-) = (500)(.92) = 460
Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel, 5e
Chap 9-47
Hypothesis Testing
Proportions Example
H0: = .08 H1: .08
= .05
n = 500, p = .06
Critical Values: 1.96
Reject
.025
.025
-1.96
1.96
Chap 9-48
Hypothesis Testing
Proportions Example
Test Statistic:
Z
(1 )
n
.06 .08
1.648
.08(1 .08)
500
.025
.025
-1.96
-1.646
1.96
Decision:
Do not reject H0 at
= .05
Conclusion:
There isnt sufficient
evidence to reject the
companys claim of
8% response rate.
Chap 9-49
biases
Do not use human subjects without informed
consent
Choose the level of significance, , before data
collection
Do not employ data snooping to choose between
one-tail and two-tail test, or to determine the level of
significance
Do not practice data cleansing to hide
observations that do not support a stated hypothesis
Report all pertinent findings
Chap 9-50
Chapter Summary
In this chapter, we have
Addressed hypothesis testing methodology
Performed Z Test for the mean ( known)
Discussed critical value and pvalue approaches to
hypothesis testing
Performed one-tail and two-tail tests
Chap 9-51