Statistical Hypothesis

Statistical Analysis
Stat 2
Session 10
Statistical Hypothesis
ST640 - Statistical Analysis
Session 10 - 1
Session 10 Topics
Estimating the Variance
Estimating the Ratio of Two Variances
Hypothesis Testing Methodology
Z Test for the Mean ( Known)
p-Value Approach to Hypothesis Testing
Connection to Confidence Interval Estimation
One Tail Test
t Test of Hypothesis for the Mean
Z Test of Hypothesis for the Proportion
Testing Hypothesis using SPSS
Session 10 - 2
Estimating The Variance

If a sample size n is drawn from a normal population with
2
2
s
variance and the sample variance
is computed, we
2
2
obtain a value of the statistic S . This statistic S is
2
called an estimator of
Chi-Square Statistic
(n 1) S

2
v = n-1 degrees of freedom

Session 10 - 3

(n 1) S

2
0
Session 10 - 4

(n 1) S

2
1
0
/2
/2
2
1 / 2
P(
2
1 / 2
2
/2
2
/2
) 1
Session 10 - 5

(n 1) S

2
Confidence Interval for 2
2
(n 1) S 2
(
n
1
)
S
2
2
/ 2
12 / 2
A (1- )100% confidence interval for is obtained by taking

the square root of each endpoint of the interval for 2
Session 10 - 6
Estimating The
Variance
(n 1) S

2
Session 10 - 7

Example
The following are the volumes, in deciliters, of 10 cans of
peaches, distributed by a certain company; 46.4, 46.1,
45.8, 47.0, 46.1, 45.9, 45.8, 46.9, 45.2, and 46.0. Find a
95% confidence interval for the variance of all such cans of
peaches distributed by this company, assuming volume to
be a normally distributed variable.
Session 10 - 8

Solution
2 / 2,v .2025,9 19.023
(1 )100% 95%, .05

v n 1 9
12 / 2,v .2975,9 2.7

10
s2
10 x
2
i
i 1
10(10 1)
i 1
10
0.286222
95%
2.5%
2.7
2.5%
19.023
2
Session 10 - 9

Solution
95% Confidence Interval
(1 )100% 95%, .05

v n 1 9
s 2 0.286
( n 1) S 2
2 / 2
( n 1) S 2
12 / 2
9(0.286)
9(0.286)
2

19.023
2.700
95%
2.5%
2.7
0.135 2 0.953
2.5%
19.023
2
Session 10 - 10
Estimating The Ratio of

Two Variances
A point estimate of the ratio of two population variances 12 22
is given by the ratio s12 s22 of the sample variance
2
2
We can establish an interval estimate of 1

2 by using the
statistic
F Statistic
S
F
S
2 2
2 1
2 2
1 2
v1 and v2 degrees of freedom
Whose sampling distribution is called F Distribution
Session 10 - 11

Two Variances
F Statistic
S
F
S
2 2
2 1
2 2
1 2
a ratio of two independent chi-square variable, each

divided by their degrees of freedom
/ v1 s /
s
f
/ v2 s /
s
2
1
2
2
2
1
2
2
2
1
2
2
2
2
2
1
2
1
2
2
Session 10 - 12

Two Variances
F Statistic
S
F
S
2 2
2 1
2 2
1 2
0
f
Session 10 - 13

Two Variances
F Statistic
S
F
S
2 2
2 1
2 2
1 2
P( f1 / 2 ( v1,v 2 ) F f / 2 ( v1,v 2 ) ) 1
1
0
/2
/2
f1 / 2
f / 2
f
Session 10 - 14

Two Variances
F Statistic
f1 ( v1,v 2)
Example
f.95( 6,10 )
S
F
S
2 2
2 1
2 2
1 2
1
f ( v 2,v1)
1
f.05(10, 6 )
f.95( 6,10 )
0.246
4.06
Session 10 - 15

Two Variances
F Statistic
S
F
S
2 2
2 1
2 2
1 2
12
Confidence Interval for
22
2
2
s
1
1 s1
2 2 f / 2 (v2 , v1 )
s f / 2 (v1 , v2 ) 2 s2
2
1
2
2
v1 =n1-1 and v2 =n2 1

Session 10 - 16

Two Variances
Example
A standardized placement test in mathematics was given to
25 boys and 16 girls. The boys made an average grade of
82 with a standard deviation of 8, while the girls made an
average grade of 78 with a standard deviation of 7. Find a
2
2
2
98% confidence interval for 1 2 and 1 2 , where 1

2
and 1 are the variances of the population of grades for all
boys and girls, respectively, who at sometime have taken or
will take this test. Assume the populations to be normally
distributed.
Session 10 - 17

Two Variances
Solution
n1 25
n2 16
s1 8
s2 7
12
98% Confidence Interval for
22
12 64
64
1
f.01 (15,24)
2
49 f.01 (24,15) 2 49
64 1 12 64
2
(2.89)
49 3.29 2 49
12
0.397 2 3.775
2
98% Confidence
1
Interval for
2
1
0.630
1.943
2
Session 10 - 18
What is a Hypothesis?
A hypothesis is an
assumption about the
population parameter.
A parameter is a
Population mean or
proportion
The parameter must

be identified before
analysis.
I assume the mean grade

of this class is 1.25!
1984-1994 T/Maker Co.

Session 10 - 19
The Null Hypothesis, H0
States the Assumption (numerical) to be tested

e.g. The average # of TV sets in Philippine homes
is at least 3 (H0: 3)
Begin with the assumption that the null

hypothesis is TRUE.
(Similar to the notion of innocent until proven guilty)
Refers to the Status Quo

Always contains the = sign
The Null Hypothesis may or may not be rejected.
Session 10 - 20
The Alternative Hypothesis, H1
Is the opposite of the null

hypothesis e.g. The average # TV sets in
Phil. homes is less than 3 (H1: < 3)
Challenges the Status Quo

Never contains the = sign
The Alternative Hypothesis may or

may not be accepted
Session 10 - 21
Identify the Problem

Steps:
State the Null Hypothesis (H0: 3)

State its opposite, the Alternative
Hypothesis (H1: < 3)
Hypotheses
are mutually exclusive &
exhaustive
Sometimes it is easier to form the
alternative hypothesis first.
Session 10 - 22
Hypothesis Testing Process

Assume the
population
mean age is 30.
(Null Hypothesis)
Is X 16 30?
No, not likely!
Population
The Sample
Mean Is 16
REJECT
Null Hypothesis
Sample
Session 10 - 23
Reason for Rejecting H0

Sampling Distribution
It is unlikely
that we
would get a
sample
mean of this
value ...
16
... if in fact this is

the population mean.
= 30
... Therefore,
we reject the
null
hypothesis
that = 30.
Sample Mean
H0
Session 10 - 24
Level of Significance,
Defines Unlikely Values of Sample Statistic

if Null Hypothesis Is True
Called Rejection Region of Sampling

Distribution
Designated (alpha)
Typical values are 0.01, 0.05, 0.10
Selected by the Researcher at the Start
Provides the Critical Value(s) of the Test
Session 10 - 25
Level of Significance, and

the Rejection Region
H0: 3
H1: < 3
H0: 3
H1: > 3
Critical
Value(s)
Rejection
Regions
H0: 3
H1: 3
/2
0
Session 10 - 26
Errors in Making Decisions
Type I Error
Reject True Null Hypothesis
Has Serious Consequences
Probability of Type I Error Is
Called
Level of Significance
Type II Error
Do Not Reject False Null Hypothesis
Probability of Type II Error Is (Beta)
Session 10 - 27
Result Possibilities
Jury Trial
H0: Innocent
Hypothesis Test
Actual
Verdict Situation
Innocent
Guilty
Innocent
Correct
Guilty
Error
Error
Correct
Decision
Actual Situation
H0True H 0 False
Do Not
Reject
H0
1-
Type II
Error ( )
Reject
H0
Type I
Error
( )
Power
(1 - )
Session 10 - 28
& Have an
Inverse Relationship
Reduce probability of one error
and the other one goes up.
Session 10 - 29
Factors Affecting
Type II Error,
True Value of Population Parameter
Significance Level
Increases When Decreases
Population Standard Deviation
Increases When Difference Between Hypothesized

Parameter & True Value Decreases
Increases When Increases
Sample Size n
Increases When n Decreases
Session 10 - 30
Z-Test Statistics (Known)

Convert Sample Statistic (e.g.,
Standardized Z Variable
X X X
Z
X
n
)X
to
Test Statistic
Compare to Critical Z Value(s)
If Z test Statistic falls in Critical Region, Reject

H0; Otherwise Do Not Reject H0
Session 10 - 31
p Value Test
Probability of Obtaining a Test Statistic

More Extreme or ) than Actual Sample
Value Given H0 Is True
Called Observed Level of Significance
Smallest Value of a H0 Can Be Rejected
Used to Make Rejection Decision

If p value Do Not Reject H0
If p value <, Reject H0
Session 10 - 32
Hypothesis Testing: Steps

Test the Assumption that the true mean # of
TV sets in Philippine homes is at least 3.
1.
State H0
H0 : 3
2.
State H1
H1 :
3.
Choose
= .05
4.
Choose n
n = 100
5.
Choose Test:
Z Test (or p Value)
Session 10 - 33
Hypothesis Testing: Steps

(continued)
Test the Assumption that the average # of

TV sets in Philippine homes is at least 3.
6. Set Up Critical Value(s)
Z = -1.645
7. Collect Data
100 households surveyed
8. Compute Test Statistic
Computed Test Stat.= -2
9. Make Statistical Decision
Reject Null Hypothesis
10. Express Decision

than 3 in the Philippine
The true mean # of TV set

households.
is less
Session 10 - 34
One-Tail Z Test for Mean
(Known)
Assumptions
Population Is Normally Distributed
If Not Normal, use large samples
Null Hypothesis Has or Sign Only
Z Test Statistic:
x x x
z
x
n
Session 10 - 35
Rejection Region
H0:
H1: < 0
H0: 0
H1: > 0
Reject H0
Reject H 0
Must Be Significantly
Below = 0
Small values dont contradict H0

Dont Reject H0!
Session 10 - 36
Example: One Tail Test

Does an average box of
cereal contain more than
368 grams of cereal? A
random sample
of 25 boxes
_
showed X = 372.5. The
company has specified to
be 15 grams. Test at the
0.05 level.
368 gm.
H0: 368
H1: > 368
Session 10 - 37
Finding Critical
Values: One Tail
What Is Z Given = 0.05?
1.00
-.05
.95
Z = 1
= .05
0 1.645 Z
Critical Value
= 1.645
Standardized Normal
Probability Table (Portion)
.04
.05
.06
1.6 .9505 .9515 .9525

1.7 .9591 .9599 .9608
1.8 .9671 .9678 .9686
1.9 .9738 .9744 .9750
Session 10 - 38
Example Solution: One Tail

H0: 368
H1: > 368
= 0.05
n = 25
Critical Value: 1.645
Reject
.05
0 1.645 Z
Test Statistic:
Z
1.50
Decision:
Do Not Reject at = .05
Conclusion:
No Evidence that the

True Mean Is More than
368
Session 10 - 39
p Value Solution
p Value is P(Z 1.50) = 0.0668
Use the
alternative
hypothesis
to find the
direction of
the test.
p Value
.0668
.9332
0 1.50
From Z Table:
Lookup 1.50
1.0000
- .9332
.0668
Z
Z Value of Sample
Statistic
Session 10 - 40
p Value Solution
(p Value = 0.0668) ( = 0.05).
Do Not Reject.
p Value = 0.0668
Reject
= 0.05
1.50
Test Statistic Is In the Do Not Reject Region

Session 10 - 41
Example: Two Tail Test

Does an average box of
cereal contains 368 grams of
cereal? A random sample of
25 boxes showed X = 372.5.
The company has specified
to be 15 grams. Test at the
0.05 level.
368 gm.
H0: 368
H1: 368
Session 10 - 42
Example Solution: Two Tail

H0: 386
H1: 386
Test Statistic:
= 0.05
n = 25
Reject
.025
.025
-1.96
0 1.96
X 372.5 368
1.50
15
n
25
Decision:
Conclusion:
No Evidence that True
Mean Is Not 368
Session 10 - 43
Connection to
Confidence Intervals
_
For X = 372.5oz, = 15 and n = 25,
The 95% Confidence Interval is:
372.5 - (1.96) 15/ 25 to 372.5 + (1.96) 15/ 25
or
366.62 378.38
If this interval contains the Hypothesized mean
(368), we do not reject the null hypothesis.
It does. Do not reject.
Session 10 - 44
Z Test for Mean
(Known)
Example
A manufacturer of sports equipment has developed a new
synthetic fishing line that he claims has a mean breaking
strength of 8 kilograms with a standard deviation of 0.5
kilogram. Test the hypothesis thatkilograms against
the alternative that 8 kilograms if a random sample of
50 lines is tested and found to have a mean breaking
strength of 7.8 kilograms. Use .01 level of significance.
Session 10 - 45
Z Test for Mean
(Known)
Solution
H0: 8 kilograms
H1: 8
kilograms
= 0.01
n = 50
Test Statistic:
X 7.8 8
2.83
0 .5
n
50
Decision:
Reject H0 at = .01
Conclusion:
.005
-2.575
.005
0 2.575 Z
The average breaking

strength is not equal to 8
kilograms
Session 10 - 46
Z Test for Mean
(Known)
Example
A random sample of 100 recorded deaths in the Philippines
during the past year showed an average life span of 71.8
years, with a standard deviation of 8.9 years. Does this
seem to indicate that the average life span today is greater
than 70 years? Use a 0.05 level of significance.
Session 10 - 47
Z Test for Mean
(Known)
Solution
H0: years
H1: years
= 0.05
n = 100
Test Statistic:
X 71.8 70
2.02
8.9
n
100
Decision:
Reject H0 at = .05
Conclusion:
.05
0 1.645 Z
The average life span

today is greater than 70
Session 10 - 48
t-Test: Unknown
Assumptions
Population is normally distributed
If not normal, only slightly skewed & a
large sample taken
Parametric test procedure

t test statistic
X
t
S
n
Session 10 - 49
Example: One Tail t-Test

Does an average box of cereal
contain more than 368 grams
of cereal? A random sample of
36 boxes showed X = 372.5,
ands 15. Test at the 0.01
level.
is not
given,
368 gm.
H0: 368
H1: 368
Session 10 - 50
Example Solution: One Tail

H0: 368
H1: 368
= 0.01
n = 36, df = 35
Reject
.01
0 2.326
Test Statistic:
X 372.5 368
t
1.80
S
15
n
36
Decision:
Conclusion:
No Evidence that True
Mean Is More than 368
Session 10 - 51
t-Test: Unknown
Example
A new registration procedure using modern computing
machines is being tried. If a random sample of 12 students
had an average registration time of 42 minutes with a
standard deviation of 11.9 minutes under the new system,
test the hypothesis that the population mean is now less
than 50, using a level of significance of (a) 0.05 and (b)
0.01. Assume the population of times to be normal
Session 10 - 52
t-Test: Unknown
Solution
Test Statistic:
H0: min
H1: min
= 0.05 , = 0.01
n = 12
df=11
Critical Value: -1.796, -2.718
.05
.01
-2.718
-1.796
X 42 50
2.33
s
11.9
n
12
Decision:
Reject H0 at = .05
Do not reject H0 at = .01
Conclusion:
The true mean is likely to be less

than 50 minutes but not at the .01
level of significance
Session 10 - 53
Test Concerning Means

Ho
0
0
Value of Test
Statistic
H1
X
Z
n
known or n 30
0
0
0
X
t
, v n 1
s
n
0
0
0
unknown and n 30
Critical Region
z z
z z
z z / 2 and z z / 2
t t
t t
t t / 2 and
t t / 2
Session 10 - 54

(continued)
Ho
1 2 d 0
1 2 d 0
Value of Test
Statistic
H1
Critical Region
( x1 x2 ) d 0
1 2 d 0
z
2
2
( 1 / n1 ) ( 2 / n2 ) 1 2 d 0
z z
1 and 2 known
1 2 d 0 z z and z z
/2
/2
( x1 x2 ) d 0
t
s p (1 / n1 ) (1 / n2 )
v n1 n2 2
1 2 but unknown
t t
1 2 d 0
t t
1 2 d 0
1 2 d 0 t t / 2 and t t / 2
(n1 1) s12 (n2 1) s22

s
n1 n2 2
2
p
Session 10 - 55

(continued)
Ho
1 2 d 0
Value of Test
Statistic
t'
H1
1 2 d 0
t t
1 2 d 0
t t
1 2 d 0 t t
and t t / 2
/2
( x1 x2 ) d 0
( s12 / n1 ) ( s22 / n2 )
( s12 / n1 s22 / n2 ) 2
2
1
/ n1
s22 / n2
n1 1
n2 1
Critical Region
1 2 and unknown
Session 10 - 56

Ho
Value of Test
Statistic
H1
Critical Region
D d0
d d0
t
, v n 1
sd n
D d0
D d0
D d0
t t
t t
paired observation
t t / 2 and t t / 2
Session 10 - 57
t-Test: Unknown
Example
A course in Mathematics is taught to 12 students by the
conventional classroom procedure. A second group of 10
students was given the same course by means of
programmed materials. At the end of the semester the
same examination was given to each group. The 12
students meeting in the classroom made an average of 81
with standard deviation of 4, while the 10 students using
programmed materials made an average of 81 with a
standard deviation of 5. Test the hypothesis that the two
methods of learning are equal using 0.10 level of
significance. Assume the population to be approximately
normal with equal variances.
Session 10 - 58
t-Test: Unknown
Solution
Test Statistic:
H0:
2
=: 0.10
,
H
1
n1 = 12 n2=10
df=20
( x1 x2 ) d 0
t
s p (1 / n1 ) (1 / n2 )
s
2
p
-1.725
20.05
(85 81) 0
2.07
4.478 (1 / 12) (1 / 10)
Decision:
Reject H0 at = .10
Conclusion:
.05
1.725
20
s p 4.478
.05
(12 1)4 2 (10 1)52
The two methods are not

equal
Session 10 - 59
Proportions
Involves categorical variables
Fraction or % of population in a category
If two categorical outcomes, binomial
distribution
Either possesses or doesnt possess the characteristic
Sample proportion (ps)

X number of successes
ps
n
sample size
Session 10 - 60
Example:Z Test for Proportion

Problem: A marketing company claims
that it receives 4% responses from its
Mailing.
Approach: To test this claim, a random
sample of 500 were surveyed with 25
responses.
Solution: Test at the = .05 significance
level.
Session 10 - 61
Z Test for Proportion:

Solution
H0: p .04
H1: p .04
Test Statistic:
ps - p
Z
p (1 - p)
n
= .05
n = 500
Critical Values: 1.96

Reject
Reject
.025
.025
0
.05 -.04
=
= 1.14
.04 (1 - .04)
500
Decision:
Do not reject at = .05
Conclusion:
We do not have sufficient

evidence to reject the
companys claim of 4%
response rate.
Session 10 - 62
Testing of Hypothesis using SPSS

Binomial Test
To use the binomial test
Binomial Test, your
experiment or study must
have only two possible
outcomes, such as
cured/not cured, pass/fail,
buy/not buy, defective/not
defective, and so on.
Analyze
Nonparametric Tests
Binomial
Session 10 - 63

Binomial Test
Test Variable
Test Proportion
H0: p .05
H1: p .05
Session 10 - 64

Binomial Test Result (n=10)
Binomial Test
Binomial Test
BINOM10 Group 1
BINOM10 Group 1
Group 2
Group 2
Total
Total
Category
Category
1.00
1.00
.00
.00
N
N
7
7
3
3
10
10
H0: p .05
H1: p .05
Observed
Exact Sig.
Observed
Exact Sig.
Prop.
Test Prop.
(2-tailed)
Prop.
Test Prop.
(2-tailed)
.70
.50
.344
.70
.50
.344
.30
.30
1.00
1.00
There is a 34% chance of observing

a cure rate as extreme as 70%
when the true rate is 50%
Session 10 - 65

Binomial Test Result (n=40)
Binomial Test
Binomial Test
Category
Category
1.00
1.00
.00
.00
BINOM40 Group 1
BINOM40 Group 1
Group 2
Group 2
Total
Total
a. Based on Z Approximation.
a. Based on Z Approximation.
N
N
28
28
12
12
40
40
H0: p .05
H1: p .05
Observed
Asymp. Sig.
Observed
Asymp. Sig.
Prop.
Test Prop.
(2-tailed)
Prop.
Test Prop.
(2-tailed) a
.70
.50
.018 a
.70
.50
.018
.30
.30
1.00
1.00
There is a 1.8 % chance of

observing a cure rate as extreme
as 70% when the true rate is 50%
Session 10 - 66

One-Sample T Test
This procedure tests
the null hypothesis
that a sample
comes from a
population with
specified mean.
Analyze
Compare Means
One-Sample T test
Session 10 - 67

One-Sample T Test
Test Variable
H0:
H1: 40
Test Value
Session 10 - 68

One-Sample T Test
H0:
H1: 40
One-Sample Statistics
N
Number of Hours
Worked Last Week
Mean
900
Std. Deviation
Std. Error
Mean
14.631
.488
41.76
P-value
One-Sample Test
Test Value = 40
t
Number of Hours
Worked Last Week
Decision:
3.616
df
899
Sig. (2-tailed)
Mean
Difference
.000
1.76
95% Confidence
Interval of the
Difference
Lower
Upper
.81
2.72
reject Ho at = .05 No. of hours worked is not 40Session

hours
10 - 69
Session 10 Summary
Estimating the Variance
Hypothesis Testing Methodology
Z Test for the Mean ( Known)
p-Value Approach to Hypothesis Testing
Connection to Confidence Interval Estimation
One Tail Test
t Test of Hypothesis for the Mean
Z Test of Hypothesis for the Proportion
Testing Hypothesis Using SPSS
Session 10 - 70

Statistical Hypothesis

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Statistical Hypothesis

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Statistical Analysis

ST640 - Statistical Analysis

Estimating The Variance

v = n-1 degrees of freedom

Estimating The Variance

v = n-1 degrees of freedom

Estimating The Variance

v = n-1 degrees of freedom

Estimating The Variance

Confidence Interval for 2

v = n-1 degrees of freedom

A (1- )100% confidence interval for is obtained by taking

ST640 - Statistical Analysis

v = n-1 degrees of freedom

ST640 - Statistical Analysis

Estimating The Variance

ST640 - Statistical Analysis

Estimating The Variance

2 / 2,v .2025,9 19.023

(1 )100% 95%, .05

12 / 2,v .2975,9 2.7

ST640 - Statistical Analysis

Estimating The Variance

95% Confidence Interval

(1 )100% 95%, .05

ST640 - Statistical Analysis

Estimating The Ratio of

We can establish an interval estimate of 1

v1 and v2 degrees of freedom

Whose sampling distribution is called F Distribution

ST640 - Statistical Analysis

Estimating The Ratio of

v1 and v2 degrees of freedom

a ratio of two independent chi-square variable, each

ST640 - Statistical Analysis

Estimating The Ratio of

v1 and v2 degrees of freedom

Estimating The Ratio of

v1 and v2 degrees of freedom

ST640 - Statistical Analysis

Estimating The Ratio of

ST640 - Statistical Analysis

v1 and v2 degrees of freedom

Estimating The Ratio of

v1 and v2 degrees of freedom

v1 =n1-1 and v2 =n2 1

Estimating The Ratio of

98% confidence interval for 1 2 and 1 2 , where 1

ST640 - Statistical Analysis

Estimating The Ratio of

The parameter must

I assume the mean grade

1984-1994 T/Maker Co.

The Null Hypothesis, H0

States the Assumption (numerical) to be tested

Begin with the assumption that the null

Refers to the Status Quo

The Alternative Hypothesis, H1

Is the opposite of the null

Challenges the Status Quo

The Alternative Hypothesis may or

ST640 - Statistical Analysis

Identify the Problem

State the Null Hypothesis (H0: 3)