The Statistical Imagination

Chapter 10.
Hypothesis Testing II:
Single-Sample Hypothesis
Tests: Establishing the
Representativeness of Samples
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Single-Sample
Hypothesis Tests
Used to answer the question:
Is a parameter equal to some chosen
target value?

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Sources of Target Values

1. A known population parameter from a
comparison group
2. Known parameters from a past time period
3. A statistical ideal
4. A population is sampled, and the sample
statistics are compared to known population
parameters to determine whether the sample
is representative of the population
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Small Single-Sample
Means Test
Useful for testing a hypothesis that the
mean of a population is equal to a target
value

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When to Use a Small Single

Sample Means Test
1.There is only one variable
2. The level of measurement of the variable
is interval/ratio
3. There is a single sample and population
4. n < 121 cases
5. There is a target value of the variable to
which we may compare the mean of the
sample
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The Students t
Sampling Distribution
The sampling distribution curve used
with especially small samples
(n < 121 cases) is called the
Students t-distribution
The t-distribution is an approximately
normal distribution
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The t-distribution of Means

For a sampling distribution of means, when
the sample size is 121 or fewer cases, the
probability curve begins to flatten into
a t-distribution
See Figure 10-1 in the text

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Features of the t-distribution

Standardized scores for the t-distribution
are called t-scores and are computed like
Z-scores
The t-distribution, like the Z-distribution of
the normal curve, allows us to calculate
probabilities
The t-distribution is symmetrical with mean,
median, and mode centered, but the curve
is flatter reflecting greater sampling error
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The t-distribution Table

The t-distribution table (Appendix B,
Statistical Table C) is organized differently
from the normal curve table
See Table 10-1 in the text
The t-distribution table provides t-scores
for only the critical probabilities of .05, .01,
and .001; that is, this table provides
critical t-scores
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Degrees of Freedom
Degrees of freedom ( df ) are the number
of opportunities in sampling to compensate
for limitations, distortions, and potential
weaknesses in statistical procedures
Use of the t-distribution table requires the
calculation of degrees of freedom
For single-sample means tests, df = n - 1

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More on Degrees of Freedom

From repeated sampling we know that any single
sample is only an estimate. An estimate can be
distorted by limitations of the statistical procedures
used to obtain it
E.g., the mean is influenced by outliers
The larger the sample, the greater the opportunity
for an outlier to be neutralized in such a way as to
not distort a sample mean
A small sample is especially vulnerable to outliers
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Z-Tests and t-Tests

The small sample t-test applies when the
sample size, n < 121; we use the t-distribution
table
However, regardless of sample size, all
single-sample means tests are typically
referred to as t-tests because the Z-test is a
special case of a t-test, a t-test where n >
121; the t-distribution table includes critical
scores for this situation under df =
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Features of a
Single-Sample Means Test
Follow the six steps of statistical inference
Step 1: In general, state the H0 :
Parameter (sampled population) = known target parameter

That is, the mean of a population

= a target value
As in all hypotheses tests, the H0 and HA
refer to population parameters
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Features of a SingleSample Means Test (cont.)

Step 2. t-distribution with df = n - 1
The standard error is estimated by
dividing the sample standard
deviation by the square root of the
sample size, n
Draw the t-distribution curve
Obtain the critical t-score from the
t-table in Appendix B
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The Critical Test Score

for a t-Distribution
Step 3: For a hypothesis test using the tdistribution curve, the critical test score is
the specific t-score that is large enough to
cause us to reject the H0
After selecting the critical value from the tdistribution table, identify its location on the
probability curve in Step 2 and estimate
what kind of sample outcomes reach the
critical region
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Features of a Single-Sample
Means Test (Continued)
Step 4. The effect is the difference
between the observed sample mean and
the hypothesized target value
The test statistic is the effect divided by the
standard error
The p-value is estimated from the tdistribution table

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Relationships Among
Mathematical Parts of the Test
There are rules that assist in
understanding the relationships among
hypothesized parameters, observed
sample statistics, the test statistic, the pvalue, and the level of significance and its
critical test score

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Rule 1: The Test Effect and

the Critical Test Score
The H0 is rejected when the test
effect is large enough that the test
statistic is greater than the critical test
score value
If tobserved > t , then p < ; reject
H0
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Rule 2: The Effect and the

Size of the p-Value
The larger the test effect and the test
statistic, the smaller the p-value
A large test effect implies a significant
difference between what was
hypothesized and what was observed
A large test effect makes the H0
suspect
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Rule 3: Rejection and

Test Direction
It is easier to reject with a one-tailed test
than with a two-tailed test
Choosing to use a one-tailed test must be
done on the basis of theory or logic and is
done in Step 1 of the six steps
Do not look to Step 4, the sample outcome,
to make a choice of test direction
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Rule 4: The Level of

Significance and Rejection
The lower the level of significance, the
harder it is to reject the H0
The H0 is rejected when the p-value is less
than or equal to . The p-value must be
especially small to be smaller than a small

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Rule 5: Fail to Reject When Findings

are in the Wrong Direction
When using a one-tailed test but the
observed sample statistic falls in the
opposite direction, immediately fail to
reject the H0
Even if found statistically significant,
one cannot justify a wrong direction
finding
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Testing for Sample

Representativeness
Single-sample hypothesis tests are
especially useful for determining whether a
sample is representative of the population
from which it was drawn
To establish the representativeness of a
sample, data must be acquired on some
known parameters of the population to
provide the target value for the test
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Testing for Sample

Representativeness (cont.)
Single-sample hypothesis tests
determine whether the test effect is
(a) due to random sampling error or
(b) due to a failure to sample and
represent some aspect of the
population adequately
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Testing for Sample

Representativeness (cont.)
The H0 is stated as the sample is
representative
If the difference between the known
parameter and the sample statistic is not
statistically significant but simply due to
sampling error, then we will not reject this
H0
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Testing for Sample

Representativeness (cont.)
The HA is stated as the sample is not
representative
If the difference between the known
parameter and the sample statistic is
significantly different, then we reject the H0
and conclude that the sampled population
and targeted population are not one and
the same that there is sample bias
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Testing for Sample

Representativeness (cont.)
Most tests of sample
representativeness use nominal/ordinal
variables, such as gender and race,
because known parameters are
available in government documents
(e.g., the U.S. Census)
These parameters provide the target
values for such tests
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Large Single-Sample
Proportions Test
The large single-sample proportions
test is used for testing sample
representativeness with
nominal/ordinal variables

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When to Use a Large SingleSample Proportions Test

1. There is only one variable
2. It is a nominal/ordinal variable with
P = p [of success category] and Q = p [of failure
category/categories]
3. There is a single sample and population
4. The sample size is sufficiently large that (psmaller) (n) > 5
5. There is a target value (known parameter) with which
to compare the sample proportion

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Features of a Large SingleSample Proportions Test

Step 1. Stating the H0:
Parameter (sampled population) = a known target parameter

That is: Pu = a known target value

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Features of a Large SingleSample Proportions Test (cont.)

Step 2. The sampling distribution of
proportions is the approximately normal tdistribution with a standard error estimated
by taking the square root of Pu times Qu
divided by n
In the t-distribution table, look to df = ;
this is essentially a normal curve test
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Features of a Large SingleSample Proportions Test (cont.)

Step 4. The effect is the difference
between the observed sample proportion
(Ps) and the hypothesized target value (Pu)
The test statistic is the effect divided by the
standard error
The p-value is estimated from the tdistribution table
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Features of a Large SingleSample Proportions Test (cont.)

Steps 5 and 6: When the H0 is rejected,
focus on the interpretation of the HA,
which is that the sample is NOT
representative

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Confidence Interval of the Mean

When n is Small (n < 121 cases)
For a confidence interval of the mean
(Chapter 8), when the sample size is
121 or fewer cases, substitute the
appropriate t-score in place of a Z-score
t in place of Z

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Statistical Follies: Sample Size

and Tests of Representativeness
When testing for sample representativeness,
we wish to fail to reject the of H0 of no
significant difference
With a small sample and its large standard
error, it is too easy to accomplish this, but
there is the chance of Type II error, in this
case, concluding the sample is representative
when it is not
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Statistical Follies: Sample Size and

Tests of Representativeness (cont.)

To avoid a Type II error, the sample size

must be sufficiently large
Statistical power is a test statistics
probability of not incurring a Type II error
for a given level of confidence

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