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Business Statistics, 4e

by Ken Black
Chapter 11
Discrete Distributions

Analysis of
Variance
& Design of
Experiments

Business Statistics, 4e, by Ken Black. 2003 John Wiley & Sons.

11-1

Learning Objectives
Understand the differences between various
experimental designs and when to use them.
Compute and interpret the results of a one-way
ANOVA.
Compute and interpret the results of a random
block design.
Compute and interpret the results of a two-way
ANOVA.
Understand and interpret interaction.
Know when and how to use multiple comparison
techniques.
Business Statistics, 4e, by Ken Black. 2003 John Wiley & Sons.

11-2

Introduction to Design
of Experiments, #1
Experimental Design
- a plan and a structure to test hypotheses in
which the researcher controls or manipulates
one or more variables.

Business Statistics, 4e, by Ken Black. 2003 John Wiley & Sons.

11-3

Introduction to Design of Experiments, #2


Independent Variable
Treatment variable is one that the experimenter
controls or modifies in the experiment.
Classification variable is a characteristic of the
experimental subjects that was present prior to the
experiment, and is not a result of the
experimenters manipulations or control.
Levels or Classifications are the subcategories of
the independent variable used by the researcher in
the experimental design.

Business Statistics, 4e, by Ken Black. 2003 John Wiley & Sons.

11-4

Introduction to Design
of Experiments, #3
Dependent Variable
- the response to the different levels of the
independent variables.

Business Statistics, 4e, by Ken Black. 2003 John Wiley & Sons.

11-5

Three Types
of Experimental Designs
Completely Randomized Design
Randomized Block Design
Factorial Experiments

Business Statistics, 4e, by Ken Black. 2003 John Wiley & Sons.

11-6

Completely Randomized Design


Machine Operator
1

Valve Opening
Measurements
.
.
.

.
.
.

.
.
.

Business Statistics, 4e, by Ken Black. 2003 John Wiley & Sons.

.
.
.

11-7

Valve Openings by Operator


1

6.33

6.26

6.44

6.29

6.26

6.36

6.38

6.23

6.31

6.23

6.58

6.19

6.29

6.27

6.54

6.21

6.4

6.19

6.56

6.5

6.34

6.19

6.58

6.22
Business Statistics, 4e, by Ken Black. 2003 John Wiley & Sons.

11-8

Analysis of Variance: Assumptions


Observations are drawn from normally
distributed populations.
Observations represent random samples
from the populations.
Variances of the populations are equal.

Business Statistics, 4e, by Ken Black. 2003 John Wiley & Sons.

11-9

One-Way ANOVA: Procedural


Overview
H :
o

Ha: At least one of the means is different from the others

MSC
F
MSE
If F >
If F
Business Statistics, 4e, by Ken Black. 2003 John Wiley & Sons.

F , reject H .
F , do not reject H .
c

11-10

One-Way ANOVA:
Sums of Squares Definitions
total sum of squares = error sum of squares + between sum of squares
SST = SSC + SSE

Xij X
nj

i =1

j=1

n j
j 1

where :

j X

nj

i 1

j 1

X ij X j

i particular member of a treatment level

j = a treatment level
C = number of treatment levels

number of observations in a given treatment level

X = grand mean

X
X

ij

= mean of a treatment group or level


individual value

Business Statistics, 4e, by Ken Black. 2003 John Wiley & Sons.

11-11

Partitioning Total Sum


of Squares of Variation
SST
(Total Sum of Squares)

SSC
(Treatment Sum of Squares)

Business Statistics, 4e, by Ken Black. 2003 John Wiley & Sons.

SSE
(Error Sum of Squares)

11-12

One-Way ANOVA:
Computational Formulas

X
X
X
C

SSC n j
j 1

SSE

nj

i 1 j 1

SST

nj

j 1 i 1

MSC
MSE

j X

ij X

ij X

df
2

SSC

df

SSE

df

df
df

C 1

N C
N 1
where: i = a particular member of a treatment level
j = a treatment level
C = number of treatment levels

n=
j

MSC
F
MSE

X = grand mean

X
X =
j

ij

Business Statistics, 4e, by Ken Black. 2003 John Wiley & Sons.

number of observations in a given treatment level

column mean
individual value

11-13

One-Way ANOVA:
Preliminary Calculations
1

6.33

6.26

6.44

6.29

6.26

6.36

6.38

6.23

6.31

6.23

6.58

6.19

6.29

6.27

6.54

6.21

6.4

6.19

6.56

6.5

6.34

6.19

6.58

6.22
Tj

T1 = 31.59

T2 = 50.22

T3 = 45.42

T4 = 24.92

T = 152.15

nj

n1 = 5

n2 = 8

n3 = 7

n4 = 4

N = 24

6.318000

6.277500

6.488571

6.230000

6.339583

Mean

Business Statistics, 4e, by Ken Black. 2003 John Wiley & Sons.

11-14

One-Way ANOVA:
Sum of Squares Calculations
C

SSC n j
j 1

j X

[5 (6.318 6.339583) 8 (6.2775 6.339583)


2

7 (6.488571 6.339583) 4 (6.23 6.339583)


2

0.23658
nj C
SSE X ij X j
i 1 j 1

(6.33 6.318) (6.26 6.318) (6.31 6.318) (6.29 6.318)


2

(6.4 6.318) (6.26 6.2775) (6.36 6.2775)


2

(6.226.230)
0.15492
Business Statistics, 4e, by Ken Black. 2003 John Wiley & Sons.

(6.19 6.230)

11-15

One-Way ANOVA:
Sum of Squares Calculations

nj

SST
i 1 j 1

ij X

(6.33 6.339583) (6.26 6.339583)


2

(6.31 6.339583) (6.22 6.339583)


2

(6.19 6.339583)

0.39150

Business Statistics, 4e, by Ken Black. 2003 John Wiley & Sons.

11-16

One-Way ANOVA: df
Mean Square
df
and F Calculations df

C
E
T

C 1 4 1 3
N C 24 4 20
N 1 24 1 23

MSC
MSE

SSC

df

SSE

df

.23658

.078860
3

.15492
.007746
20

MSC .078860
F

10.18
MSE .007746

Business Statistics, 4e, by Ken Black. 2003 John Wiley & Sons.

11-17

Analysis of Variance
for Valve Openings
Source of Variance

df

Between
Error
Total

3
20
23

Business Statistics, 4e, by Ken Black. 2003 John Wiley & Sons.

SS

MS

0.23658 0.078860
0.15492 0.007746
0.39150

F
10.18

11-18

A Portion of the F Table for = 0.05

.05, 3, 20

df1
df 2

161.4
5

199.5
0

215.7
1

224.5
8

230.1
6

233.9
9

236.7
7

238.8
8

240.5
4

18

4.41

3.55

3.16

2.93

2.77

2.66

2.58

2.51

2.46

19

4.38

3.52

3.13

2.90

2.74

2.63

2.54

2.48

2.42

20

4.35

3.49

3.10

2.87

2.71

2.60

2.51

2.45

2.39

21

4.32

3.47

3.07

2.84

2.68

2.57

2.49

2.42

2.37

Business Statistics, 4e, by Ken Black. 2003 John Wiley & Sons.

11-19

One-Way ANOVA:
Procedural Summary
Ho :
1

Ha : At least one of the means


is different from the others

20

Rejection Region

If F > Fc 3.10, reject Ho.


If F Fc 3.10, do reject Ho.
Since F = 10.18 > Fc 3.10, reject Ho.

Business Statistics, 4e, by Ken Black. 2003 John Wiley & Sons.

Non rejection
Region

.05 , 9 ,11

3.10

Critical Value

11-20

Two-Way ANOVA: Hypotheses


Row Effects:

Ho:
Ha:
Columns Effects: Ho:
Ha:
Interaction Effects: Ho:
Ha:

Row Means are all equal.


At least one row mean is different from the others.
Column Means are all equal.
At least one column mean is different from the others.
The interaction effects are zero.
There is an interaction effect.

Business Statistics, 4e, by Ken Black. 2003 John Wiley & Sons.

11-21

Formulas for Computing


a Two-Way ANOVA
R

SSR nC ( X
i 1
C

i X )

SSC nR ( X j X )
j 1
R

df

SSI n ( X ij X i X j X )
i 1 j 1
R

SSE ( X ijk X ij )
i 1 j 1 k 1
C
R
n

SST ( X ijk X )

c 1 r 1 a 1

SSR
R 1
SSC
MSC
C 1
SSI
MSI
R 1 C 1
SSE
MSE
RC n 1
MSR

Business Statistics, 4e, by Ken Black. 2003 John Wiley & Sons.

df

df

df

df

R 1
C 1
R 1 C 1
RC n 1
N 1
MSR
MSE
MSC

MSE
MSI

MSE

FR
F
F

where:
n = number of observations per cell
C = number of column treatments
R = number of row treatments
i = row treatment level
j = column treatment level
k = cell member

X
X
X
X

ijk
ij
i
j

= individual observation
= cell mean
= row mean
= column mean

X = grand mean

11-22

A 2 3 Factorial Design
with Interaction

Row effects
Cell
Means

R1
R2
C1

Business Statistics, 4e, by Ken Black. 2003 John Wiley & Sons.

C2
Column

C3

11-23

A 2 3 Factorial Design
with Some Interaction

Row effects
Cell
Means

R1
R2
C1

Business Statistics, 4e, by Ken Black. 2003 John Wiley & Sons.

C2
Column

C3

11-24

A 2 3 Factorial Design
with No Interaction

Row effects
Cell
Means

R1
R2
C1

C2

C3

Column
Business Statistics, 4e, by Ken Black. 2003 John Wiley & Sons.

11-25

A 2 3 Factorial Design: Data and


Measurements for CEO Dividend Example
Location Where Company
Stock is Traded
How Stockholders
are Informed of
Dividends
Annual/Quarterly
Reports

Presentations to
Analysts
Xj

NYSE

AMEX

2
1
2
1
X11=1.5
2
3
1
2
X21=2.0

2
3
3
2
X12=2.5
3
3
2
4
X22=3.0

1.75

2.75

Business Statistics, 4e, by Ken Black. 2003 John Wiley & Sons.

OTC

Xi

4
3
4
2.5
3
X13=3.5
4
4
3
2.9167
4
X23=3.75

X=2.7083
N = 24
n=4

3.625
11-26

A 2 3 Factorial Design: Calculations


for the CEO Dividend Example (Part 1)
R

SSR nC ( X i X )

i 1

( 4)(3)[(2.5 2.7083) 2 ( 2.9167 2.7083) 2 ]


10418
.
C

SSC nR ( X j X )

j 1

( 4)(2)[(1.75 2.7083) 2 ( 2.75 2.7083) 2 ( 3.625 2.7083) 2 ]


14.0833
R

SSI n ( X ij X i X j X )

i 1 j 1

4[(15
. 2.5 1.75 2.7083) 2 ( 2.5 2.5 2.75 2.7083) 2
( 3.5 2.5 3.625 2.7083) 2 ( 2.0 2.9167 1.75 2.7083) 2
( 3.0 2.9167 2.75 2.7083) 2 ( 3.75 2.9167 3.625 2.7083) 2 ]
0.0833

Business Statistics, 4e, by Ken Black. 2003 John Wiley & Sons.

11-27

A 2 3 Factorial Design: Calculations


for the CEO Dividend Example (Part 2)
R

SSE ( X ijk X ij)

i 1 j 1 k 1

(2 15
. ) (115
. ) (3 375
. ) (4 375
. )
2

7.7500
C

SST ( X ijk X )

c 1 r 1 a 1

(2 2.7083) (1 2.7083) (3 2.7083) (4 2.7083)


2

22.9583

Business Statistics, 4e, by Ken Black. 2003 John Wiley & Sons.

11-28

A 2 3 Factorial Design: Calculations


for the CEO Dividend Example (Part 3)
SSR 10418
.
MSR

10418
.
R 1
1
SSC 14.0833
MSC

7.0417
C 1
2
SSI
0.0833
MSI

0.0417
R 1 C 1
2
SSE
7.7500
MSE

0.4306
RC n 1
18

Business Statistics, 4e, by Ken Black. 2003 John Wiley & Sons.

MSR 10418
.
F R MSE 0.4306 2.42
MSC 7.0417

F C MSE 0.4306 16.35


MSI 0.0417
.
F I MSE 0.4306 010

11-29

Analysis of Variance
for the CEO Dividend Problem
Source of VarianceSS
df
Row
1.0418
Column
14.0833
Interaction
0.0833
Error
7.7500
Total
22.9583
*

MS
1
2
2
18
23

F
1.0418 2.42
7.0417 16.35*
0.0417 0.10
0.4306

Denotes significance at = .01.

Business Statistics, 4e, by Ken Black. 2003 John Wiley & Sons.

11-30

Excel
Output
for the
CEO
Dividend
Example
(Part 1)

Business Statistics, 4e, by Ken Black. 2003 John Wiley & Sons.

Anova: Two-Factor With Replication


SUMMARY
NYSE
ASE
OTC
Total
AQReport
Count
4
4
4
12
Sum
6
10
14
30
Average
1.5
2.5
3.5
2.5
Variance
0.3333 0.3333 0.3333
1
Presentation
Count
Sum
Average
Variance

4
8
2
0.6667

4
12
3
0.6667

4
15
3.75
0.25

8
14
1.75
0.5

8
22
2.75
0.5

8
29
3.625
0.2679

12
35
2.9167
0.9924

Total
Count
Sum
Average
Variance

11-31

Excel Output for the


CEO Dividend Example (Part 2)
ANOVA
Source of Variation
Sample
Columns
Interaction
Within

SS
1.0417
14.083
0.0833
7.75

Total

22.958

Business Statistics, 4e, by Ken Black. 2003 John Wiley & Sons.

df
1
2
2
18

MS
1.0417
7.0417
0.0417
0.4306

F
P-value F crit
2.4194 0.1373 4.4139
16.355
9E-05 3.5546
0.0968 0.9082 3.5546

23

11-32

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