Wind Power in Pakistan:

Many Talks, Few Turbines!

BY

AVM (R) S J RAZA

Dawood Power

Those who can Do

Those who cant Teach
I have slightly modified this to read:

Those who can Do

Those who cant Give Talks!

If a country has these renewable resources:

Wind Power Potential
Solar Power Potential
Hydro Power Potential
Tidal Power Potential

350,000 MW
600,000 MW
50,000 MW
Not Estimated

Estimated RE Potential

1,000,000 MW

And yet that country cannot fulfill a meager

national requirement of 20,000 MW!!

The story does not end here,

the same country also has:
Coal deposits of 185 billion tons
that may be equated to
Oil deposits of Saudi Arabia and Iran combined!!
And yet this country does not produce a single
megawatt by coal.

It rather breaks its back paying for import bill

of Oil to meet a part of its power needs.

Wait, the story continues

And the same country developed its own nuclear programme
that successfully made it the 7th entrant to the
prestigious GLOBAL BOMB CLUB.
But this country failed to develop its own nuclear power
reactors to produce power for its increasing needs !!
As such not a single megawatt is produced by indigenous
nuclear means!!
SO, what do you call this country?

P A K I S T A N!!!

Energy Mix

Coal

51%

66%

6%

Oil

35%

20%

30%

Gas

9%

5%

50%

Nuclear

2%

1%

1%

Hydro

2%

7%

13%

Renewable

1%

1%

0%

Power Production

Coal

60%

0%

Hydro

20%

31%

Thermal

11%

66%

Nuclear

3%

3%

Renewable

6%

0%

AFFECTS OF POWER SHORTAGE

Poor agricultureno tube wells workno

timely irrigationhungry masses

Poor industrial performanceidle time of

machines increasingforcing closuresimporting
stuff from China losing hard earned FE
Poor industrial growth shortage of jobs for the
boys coming out of schoolfrustrationincrease in
crimemadrassah population increasing
Cottage industry sufferedemployment of women
in stitching industry could not be multiplied.

AFFECTS OF POWER SHORTAGEContd

Textile industry could not function
competitivelyexport of cotton
instead of garmentsBangladesh/Egypt
importing cotton from us, value
adding and exporting garments to earn
sizeable FE
Ultimately Pakistan left behind in Asian
trade and world trade
markets.

Future Power Scenario

Current
Peak Demand

18,091mw

Shortage

2807 mw

%Short

15%

2010

2015

2020

21,678mw

31128mw

39,372mw

926 mw

1572 mw

9634 mw

5%

25%

5%

ALTERNATE ENERGY
The dawn of Alternate Energy occurred in Pakistan
in 2003 with the GOP establishing the AEDB as a
one window facilitator for the investor.
AEDBs target was a minimum of 300 MW of wind
power by 2010.
It seemed achievable at that time, but now that
the year 2010 is round the corner, the target will
definitely slip.

MAJOR REASONS FOR DELAY

Stakeholders confronted with new technology
Regulator did not have requisite knowledge and
failed to trust Investors
Power Policy and other documents like the
draft PPA, IA etc took time to prepare
Land allotment by Sind Govt took long time
Upfront tariff announced was not in touch with
reality
Individual tariff petitions took longer time

MAJOR REASONS FOR DELAYContd

Turbine Manufacturers got vary of Pakistan
Market due to the wave of LOI Holders
approaching them
2007, security and political stability of the
country started deteriorating
Oil price hike caused a boom in wind
turbine industry, resulting in scarcity of
equipment in the market
Finally when the oil prices eased out and
so did the wind turbine market, the global
financial crisis hit the world

DAWOOD POWER PROJECT

LOI Obtained
Land Allocated
Soil Survey Completed
Feasibility Approved
Generation License Obtained
Equipment Finalised
EPC Contract Signed
Tariff Determined by Nepra
Ready to Launch!

Ladies and Gentlemen

I wish to end my talk on a positive note

YES WE CAN !!

WAY FORWARD
All countries are framing policies to support
their industry and businesses during current
crisis
In this hour of trial, we look to the Govt of
Pakistan for supporting wind IPPs
The way forward is Public Private Partnership,
providing confidence to stake holders.

P P P
AEDB should pick 3 5 of the leading projects
Form Joint Venture partnerships with them
40:60 or even 30:70
Launch at least five projects within 2009.
This will ensure at least 250 MW of wind energy
by end 2010/early 2011.

Recommendations

GOP to redraw the power map,

eliminating load shedding 2015 onwards
Power production by indigenous resources
(renewable, coal, nuclear) be given priority
Public-Private partnership workable model
in the power sector be introduced
Dependence on Oil for power production be
gradually reduced

thank you
for your attention

SUPPLY & DEMAND POSITION: 2008-2020

Short Term

Medium Term

(MW)

Fiscal Years

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Total
Existing/Committed
Generation (A+B)
Expected Available
Generation (0.85x C)

16091

19780

21678

24977

26544

27085

29801

31126

39372

39372

39372

39372

39372

13677

16813

18426

21230

22562

23022

25331

26457

33466

33466

33466

33466

31498

Demand (Summer Peak)

16484

17868

19352

20874

22460

24126

25919

28029

28029

32504

34918

37907

41132

Surplus/Deficit
Generation

-2807

-1055

-926

356

102

-1104

-588

-1572

5437

962

-1452

-4441

-9634

Prepared by
PEPCO System
UPDATED ON 19.9.2008

India

China

Pakistan

India

Pakistan

Project Milestones-DPPL
Date

Milestone

Letter of Interest (LOI)

Nov 22/04

Feasibility study accepted by AEDB

Dec 26/05

Land allocated

Aug 2006

NEPRA approval of up-front tariff (unbankable conditions)Sept 12/06

Generation License Application

Nov 2006

Generation License issued

Dec 29/06

Tariff Petition application

Feb 15/07

Nepra tariff determination

Apr 27/07

Tariff Review Petition

May 05/07

Tariff approval

July 07

Tariff Revised Petition

July 08

Tariff Revised Approval

Oct 08

Turbine Supply Agreement

45 mths

Nov 08

PPA and IA signing

Nov 08

Financing Closure

Dec 08

Start Construction

Mar 2009

Turbine Delivery

Jun - Aug 09

Commercial Operation Date

Mar 2010

19 mths

A DIAMOND IN THE ROUGH