Recovery Estimation in Sugar

Industry Using Advanced

Mathematical Models

Overview
Data Collection
Data Analysis
Sequential Approach
Problem Formulation
Result Analysis and Key Findings
Path Forward

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Data Collection
Representative Harvest Data from EID Parry (Chennai), whose processing
capacity is 5000 TPD

- Eight plantation zones (E, W, N, S, K, L, U and P).

- Two Seasons
- Main Season from December to July
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- Special Season from August to October.
- In Main Seasons of 2000 -2004
- 71 different varieties.
- For each variety, Plantcane and Ratoon Truck Loads
- Total 646, 455 Truck loads on 932 days
- Recovery Information (i.e. Plant Operating) on 883 days
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Data Analysis Recovery / Sucrose %

The Recovery Variation
as a function of
- Actual Date and
- Julian Date
is represented.

There are ups and

downs
in
the
recovery values of
different harvest
seasons
mostly
because
of
weather conditions

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Data Analysis Maturity / Age

- The age variation is captured in 23
age groups
- Each age group is of 10 days width
- It is assumed that recovery doesnt
vary significantly in 10 days
- The first and last age groups are
wider to capture the errors and
abnormal harvest data entries.

Load distribution among age groups indicates that:

- Most of the loads are for age groups 6 to 19.
- The peak number of loads are for 11 and 12.
- The most of the load coming in is of age 390 to
410 days.
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Data Analysis Varieties / Cultivars

Observations
- Total 71 varieties.
- No distinction between Plantcane
& Ratoon.
- Two varieties ( > 40 %) are
dominating.
- Only 6 varieties > 1 %.
- Total 10 varieties > 0.5 %
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Observations
- The few varieties from <
0.5 % category, are used
for more than 200 days.
- The decision is taken to
focus on 23 (Plantcane
and Ratoon considered
separately) varieties.
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Sequential Approach to Recovery Estimation

Hence,

The recovery is function of various

factors
- varieties or cultivars
- age / maturity of sugarcane load
- Julian (number equivalent of) date
- weather conditions (rainfall,
maximum temperature, temperature
different, relative humidity)
- soil conditions

Where,
The represents recovery estimated using variety, Julian date and age information.
This complex non-linear function has 5 parameters for each considered variety.
The weather effect modeling is done using 41 parameters; 21 for rain (10 + 5 +
4) and 10 each (6 + 4) for maximum temperature and temperature difference.
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Sequential Approach : Static Model Used

As a first step toward recovery prediction :

- Static Model (see sequential approach) is used. It is given as,

- Only Julian date, age and variety effects are considered. i.e
- The weather (rainfall, temperature, humidity) effects are ignored.
- The soil effects are ignored. In other word, zones are not considered.
The comparison indicates
that much ground is left
un-modeled when only
Julian date, age and
variety
effects
are
considered. The residual
error is then mainly
because of weather and
soil effects.
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Sequential Approach : Modeling Weather Effect

The residual error (un-modeled recovery) in combined model is given by:
The next subsequent step was to model un-modeled error using weather information.
- Rainfall information of last 8 months used.
- Maximum Temperature of last 6 months used.
- Temperature Difference of last 6 months used.
- The zone information is used to capture weather and soil differences.
The Dynamic Weather Model Equation is From the comparison:
- Weather & soil effects
model the residual error

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to satisfactory level.
- The deviation might be
because of nonavailability of daily
temperature data for all
zone.

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Results : Weather Parameters

In the Residual Model total 41 parameters are used. The optimized ranges
for these parameters are :
- The first 13 parameters of
rainfall effect are negative
indicating that rainfall in 40 days
prior to harvesting badly effects
recovery.
- The positive values for
remaining (14-21) rainfall
parameters indicate better rain
during growing season help
improve recovery.
- The high value (to a certain limit) of maximum temperature increases sucrose
accumulation, as indicated by parameters 22-31.
- There is no consistent inference from the temperature difference parameters (from 32
to 41)
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Results : Global Model Used

The last step towards sugar estimation is combination of Static Model and
Dynamic Weather Model.
It considers Julian date, age, variety, rainfall, maximum temperature, temperature
difference and soil effects simultaneously.

It is clear from comparison that still there are un-modeled effects; which could be
wind velocity, relative humidity and manufacturing plant dynamics.
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Results : Variety Recovery Variation

The result analysis of Global Model indicate that individual varieties follow
different sucrose maturation cycle with varying peak values.
There are early mature, middle mature and late mature varieties.
The following figure indicates how recovery for different varieties respond to the
change in age at the time of harvest.

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The first part is for February (Julian date 181-210) while second part is for March
(Julian date 211-240).
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Results : Variety Recovery Variation

The individual varieties behave similarly with respect to Julian date, but have
different peak sucrose concentration.
The following figure indicates how recovery for different varieties respond to the
change in Julian date at the time of harvest.

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The recovery variation with Julian date is plotted for age value range of 391-400 days
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Results : Plant Cane and Ratoon Comparison

The plant cane and ratoon of the same variety have many things in common, such as
genetic nature, response to weather conditions, susceptibility to diseases.
The following figure indicates recovery variation in CO 86032 plant cane & ratoon.

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Observations
- Approximately similar sucrose maturation paths with respect to age.
- The peak value of sucrose in plant cane is higher than that in ratoon
- Ratoon is less sensitive to Julian date (seasonal changes) compared with plant cane.
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Path Forward
Validation the findings of recovery estimation model with EID Parry Experts.
Validation of Global Model for recovery estimation using 2004 onwards
Main Season harvest Data.
Development of Yield Estimation model using Main Season growing data.
Development of Harvest Scheduling Algorithm and testing the same using
past harvest data.
Development of Plantation Scheduling Algorithm
Generation of Harvest Schedule for 2007 Main Season.
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Activity during the first phase of work

--------------------------------------1. What is the optimum age for harvesting for each
variety? (Optimum in terms of recovery)
2. Why the recovery is high/low on a particular day?
What could have been the best combination for a day to
get the best recovery?

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