Climate Change Impacts

in the Gulf Coast

Philip B. Bedient
Civil & Environmental
Engineering
Rice University

Climate Change History

Earths climate has

always been changing
Ice age (2 m.y.a.),
glacial periods,
polar ice caps
18,000 yrs ago:
cold spell &
continental glaciers

Last 100 yrs, surface has warmed about

0.6C
In past 10,000 yrs, global temp. has
never varied more than 1.5C

Why has it been

changing?

Various theories
Intricate & complex relationship b/w
ocean, atmosphere, ice, and other
elements
No climatic element in systems is
isolated
Influences path of ocean currents,
transport of heat, global wind
system, and climates

Key Predictions for

Future

Increased warming
5-9F increase next 100 yrs
Differing regional impacts
Vulnerable ecosystems
Widespread water concerns
Secure food supply
Near-term forest growth increase
Damage in coastal/permafrost areas
Adaptation determines health

Greenhouse effect

Delicate balance of incoming & outgoing energy

in earth-atmosphere
Atmosphere gases (water vapor, CO2, CH4,
halocarbons, O3) absorb Earths heat
Radiate some heat back to Earth, some passes
through into space
Humans change atmosphere
burn coal, oil, natural gas, destroy forests
CO2 risen 30%, CH4 150% in past 100 yrs
Heat energy cant pass into space

Increasing Greenhouse
Gases

Unusual rapid warming

of 0.6C in 20th century
Human activities major
cause of warming
Carbon emissions have
increased from 1 to over
7 billion metric tons/year
Lifetimes of gases last
centuries
CO2 Predicted to triple by
2100

Climate Assessment
Tools

Historical records &

climate simulations
General Circulation
Model (GCM)
model Earths
climate
incomplete, but
still state-ofscience
Two main modelsHadley & Canadian

Hadley & Canadian

Models

Principles driving models are similar

Differ in representation of effects of
important processes
Thus, different views of 21st century
climate
Hadley predicts wetter climate
Canadian predicts greater temp increase
Uncertainties
how to represent clouds & precipitation
how emissions of greenhouse gases will
change

Past & Future Temperature

Change

Precipitation
Change

Large increases in
20th century
(510%)
Due to frequency &
intensity growth
Increasingly
frequent heavy
precipitation
events in 21st
century

Soil Moisture

Critical for agriculture &

natural ecosystems
Levels set by
precipitation, run-off,
evaporation, soil
drainage
Higher temp increases
evaporation, removing
moisture
Models differ due to
different temp &
precipitation predictions

Future Ecosystem
Changes

Vegetation response to
CO2 concentrations
double present levels

Multiple stresses

Climate only one of changes in global

environment
Effects of climate & other environmental changes

Common Climate
Changes

Predict increased warming,

precipitation, evaporation

Islands

Pacific
northwes
t

West

Midwes
t

Northwes
t

Common Issues

Weather extreme increase

Natural ecosystem, species, and
biodiversity changes
Water resource changes (lake levels,
snow melting)
Public health and
safety
Shifts in tourism and
recreation
Sea-level variability

Southeast

Half of remaining
wetlands located here
Rapid growth (30%
population increase b/w
1970 & 1990)
Produces half of U.S.
timber supplies
Warming and thus higher evaporation
predicted
Lower soil moisture
Significant precipitation increase also
predicted

Southeast: Future
Climate Scenarios

Southeast: Impacts on
Humans

Weather-related stresses
frequent weather disasters: drought,
hurricane
flooding in Texas (low-lying coast counties)
high heat index & poor air-quality to
increase death rate
southern heat wave & drought of 1998: $6
billion in damages & over 200 deaths
8 to 15 heat index
increase for
southernmost states

Southeast: Climate
Effects

Crop and economy impact

will vary according to area and crop
adaptation: switch crops, vary
planting dates, water usage, crop
rotations, fertilizers
Water quality stresses
sewage, dead animals, fuel, chemicals
from flooding
high temp- decrease dissolved oxygen

Southeast: Climate
effects

Coastal area threats

sea-level rise will impact ecosystems
Obvious impacts on coastal flooding
Forest productivity shifts
greater CO2: production increase in north
Pine trees

Climate Change
Summary

Warmer temp will lead to more vigorous

hydrological cycle- severe droughts &/or
floods
Uncertain predictions, especially in
timing, magnitude, & regional patterns
of climate change
Balance of evidence shows there is
discernible human influence on global
climate