Confirmation Bias, BITS Pilani

BITS Pilani
Pilani Campus

Decision Analysis
Confirmation Bias

I would like to be sure, both of you have taken the right

decision. If it is right, I am happy. But if it is not, then we
need to discuss about it. Can you say a few things about
him?.

Confirmation Bias, BITS Pilani

You mean he is a Chinese? How do you think the practices will be

compatible between both of you? That starts right from food. Also
you say, he is studying here. That means, he is still to get
employed! Looks like, he is a party freak habituated to drinks.
I have decided to marry the man of my choice. His name is
Patrick. We have been together for the past 8 months. We
discussed between us and decided to get married.

Sure dad, he is from mid land of China. His actual name is

difficult to pronounce so we call him Patrick. He is doing his
MBA with me. We met during a late night party and became
friends after that.
Oh dad, what do you think about him. Which guy doesnt drink
these days? He is just fashionable. And dad, what is the big
deal about practices, food etc. When we love each other, these
are non-issues. Also he is a creative guy, not that conventional
studious book-worm. He doesnt wish to work under someone.
He will run his own business once he completes his masters.
He is a man with self-esteem. He cant work for others.

Heuristics

Pursue efforts that rewards

Confirmation Bias, BITS Pilani

1846
1860

1946
1960

Shot in Head
Shot on Friday
Lost a son during
presidency
Both assassins
died in the
same month as their
victim

Confirmation Bias, BITS Pilani

There are two fundamental psychological forces at

work here.
The first is our tendency to subconsciously decide
what we want to do before we figure out why we
want to do it.
The second is our inclination to be more engaged by
things we like than by things we dislike.
Naturally, then, we are drawn to information that

Confirmation Bias, BITS Pilani

NPV
IRR

Cycle time in
HMC

Opportunit
y

Cycle time in manual machines

Raw
material

Machinin
g

Assembly

Testing

Packing

Confirmation Bias, BITS Pilani

What Can We Do About It?

Always check to see whether you are examining all the
evidence with equal rigor. Avoid the tendency to accept
confirming evidence without question.
Get someone you respect to play devils advocate, to
argue against the decision you are contemplating. Better
yet, build the counterarguments yourself. What is the
strongest reason to do something else? The second
strongest reason? The third? Consider the position with
an open mind.
Be honest with yourself about your motives. Are you
really gathering information to help you make a smart
choice, or are you just looking for evidence confirming
what you think you would like to do?
In seeking the advice of others, dont ask leading
questions that invite confirming evidence. And if you find
that an adviser always seems to support your point of
view, find a new adviser. Dont surround yourself with