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Probabilityisthemeasureofthelikelinessthataneventwilloccur.
The higher the probabilityof an event, the more certain we are that
theeventwilloccur.
Definition 1:
The set of all possible outcomes of a statistical experiment is
called the sample space and is represented by the symbol S.
Definition 2:
An event is a subset of a sample space.
Definition 3:
The complement of an event A with respect to S is the subset
of all elements of S that are not in A. We denote the
complement, of A by the symbol A'.
Definition 4:
Definition 5 :
ADDITIVE RULE:
Theorem
1:
If A and B are two events, then
Theorem
2:
If A and B are mutually exclusive,
then
Theorem
3:
Theorem
4:
If A and A' are complementary events, then
VENN DIAGRAM
S
5
1
4
7
6
3
Legend
A B C
Definition 7
If an experiment can result in any one of N different equally likely
outcomes, and if exactly n of these outcomes correspond to event A,
then the probability of event A is
The
probability of an event A is the sum of the weights of all sample
points in A. Therefore:
B
F
Definition
8:
The conditional probability of B, given A, denoted by P(B|A) is defined by
Definition
9:
Example: Consider a 100-km highway, and assume that the road condition
and traffic volume are uniform throughout the stretch, so that the accidents
areequallylikelytooccuranywhereonthehighway.Definetheevents:
A=anaccidentinkilometers0to30
B=anaccidentinkilometers20to60
3
0
2
0
6
0
100 km
3
0
2
0
6
0
Example: For the purpose of designing the left-turn lane (for eastbound
traffic), the60random observationsof the numbersofcarswaiting forleft
turnsatthecross-section,yieldedthefollowingresults:
No. of cars
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
No. of
Observations
4
16
20
14
3
2
1
0
0
60
Relative
Frequency
4/60
16/60
20/60
14/60
3/60
2/60
1/60
0
0
E1
E2
E3
E4
= AB
A settles and B settles
=B
A does not settle and B settles
=A
A settles and B does not settle
=
A does not settle and B does not settle
Class Upper
Limit
(N/mm2)
Class Center
(N/mm2)
Absolute
Frequency
Relative
Frequency
2.5
1/165
10
7.5
15
12.5
20
17.5
1/165
25
22.5
9/165
30
27.5
18
18/165
35
32.5
26
26/165
40
37.5
38
38/165
45
42.5
34
34/165
50
47.5
20
20/165
55
52.5
9/165
60
57.5
5/165
65
62.5
70
67.5
3/165
75
72.5
1/165
Realtive Frequency
34
26
18
9
1
20
9
0 12.5
0 17.5 22.5 27.5 32.5 37.5 42.5 47.5 52.5 57.5 62.5
0 67.5 72.5
2.5 7.5
++
Bayes Theorem
Theorem 2.4 Let A and B be events with non-zero probability. Then