1

Dipartimento Energia

EXERCISE 1
MICROSCALE MODELING WITH KIUI
A. BRIGHENTI, C. CAMARDA & L. SAVOLDI

Models and scenarios for energy

planning
A.A. 2015-2016

Summary
2

Conclusions from Lecture 5

Rationale of the lecture
KIUI software by Midori
Text case and example
Homework and exercise
The physics beyond the model

Conclusions of Lesson 5
3

Lets briefly summarize the previous

lecture:
Why do we need micromodeling?
Purpose (forecasting, optimizing,
)
How do we deal with this problem?
Approach
(stochastic/deterministic)
How do we figure out this problem?

Rationale of the
exercitation

Microscale modeling applied to real daily

life problems analysis for optimization
Take a real world problem and analyze it
with numerical tools
The
real
world:
electric
demand
assessment of my house pay attention
because you will be asked to do the same
with yours!

KIUI software by Midori

5

Today you will learn how to use

the software developed by
Midori: a simple but useful tool in
the analysis of a house (microlevel) energy demand it allows
performing demand managing!

As Dr. Camarada already showed

Classification of KIUI
6

WHER
E?

[G.R. Timilsina, Sectorial Models for Energy and Climate

Test case and example

Rationale
Why do we need KIUI?
For the application to real world
problems, for analysis and optimization!
What does it mean?
Reduce electric demand of a house,
identifying the most energy consuming
devices (and habits)

Lets do this!

Test case and example The

house (I)
Test case: analysis of my house in Verona

Lets see how it really works

Test case and example The house (II)

9

Level
0

Lamps

Oven

Dishwahser

Fridge

Test case and example The house (III)

10

Hair dryer
Computer
s

Level
1
Lam
p

Office
lamps
Air conditioner

Television

Test case and example The house (IV)

11

Washing
Machine

Level
-1

Freez
er

12

Test case and example

KIUI
Firstly, log into the website.
ID
PWD

Then just follow the instructions given by the

interface.
Pay attention: the website is available only in
Italian, if you need help please ask.

Test case and example Interview (I)

13

Fill up the black spaces with information about the location

of the house you want to analyze.

House name

City

Address

Town

Phone number

Save
button
Rememb
er to
Postal code
save
often!

Notes and others

NB: These information will not be shared with anyone, its

just an indication if you add different buildings in your
personal database.

Test case and example Interview (II)

14

Then you will have to add some more

details about your home: layout,
inhabitants, habits,
Area

Energetic classBathroom #

Kitchen #

Living room # Bedroom #

Entrance #

Sleep hh.mm
Wake up hh.mm

People #

Smartphone # Tablets #

Unplug battery
charger

Router? Y/N

Router always
on?

Hi-Fi #

Unplug Hi-Fi

Test case and example Interview (III)

15

Then the most

obscure, tricky and
scaring part
comes the BILL!
In this page you will
have to insert the
information about
how much electricity
you paid last year
every two months.

NB: If you need help, please ask

Test case and example Interview (IV)

16

In this slide you

have to insert
how much you
paid and how
much energy
you consumed
during the last
Cost (per two
year
months)

Energy
consumption
NB: If you need help, please ask

How to find information on the bill (I)

17

Electricity
market
Total to be
paid
Summary
costs

Details on your
contract

Summary
previous
consumptions

How to find information on the bill (II)

18

A
Consumptions per
each month (usually
two per bill)

A) Energy bought in F1
(Mon-Fri from 8-19)
B) Energy bought in F2 and
F3 (Mon-Fri from 19-8; Sat;
Sun; public holidays)

19

Test case and example

Devices (I)
Check all your
energyconsuming
devices and add
them in the list
on the left.
This operation is
possible only for
certain kind of
the devices, as
the model is
evolving
list
continuously.

item

CHECK THE
RESULTS!!!

This is a very delicate part because it really affects the results of

Test case and example Devices (II)

20

Pay attention! Not all devices are available as input for

the model: they will go under the bullet Others in the
output page.
For this case the devices NOT included are, for
instance:

Microwave oven
Coffee Machine
External lamps
Electric gates
Alarm system
Telephone
Iron
Dryer (used very few times)
Other devices used in kitchen

Test case and example Results (I)

21

The result page shows you the total amount of your

bill and how much energy is consumed by your
identified devices
Cost share
Total annual cost
Be as green
as you can!
Total annual energy demand and CO2
emissions

an we consume less electricity and spend less

Test case and example Results (II)

22

Electric consumption, CO2 emissions and cost for all

the listed devices

and so on

Test case and example Tips (I)

23

The less you

consume the
less you pay!
For each of the
most critical
items, a tip is
given to pay less!
Lets see in
Change
detail habits!
Unplug battery
chargers and avoid

24

Test case and example

Tips (II)
From the results slide, the fridge is identified
as the most critical device. It would be a nice
idea to substitute it with a more efficient one!
With a A+++ fridge the yearly cost would be
halved!
Spared
money

Change
device
Cost
(now)

Optimal
cost

Spared
energy
DO YOU
ACCEPT
?

25

Test case and example

Tips (III)
Not only the
performances
of the device
affect the
cost/demand
but also
your habits!
Change device!

Change habits!

26

Test case and example

Tips (IV)
This can be done for all the listed energy
consuming devices

carding or accepting each tips changes dynamically

ults of the optimization process Now its up to you

27

Test case and example

Tips (V)
The optimal cost is determined as if the user
accepts all the suggestions: depending from the
actions the user decides to take, the results of the
optimal price changes.
Cost now
Optimal
cost
Eco friendly
consequences:
how much less
energy will be
consumed? How
much CO2 emissions
will be avoided?

Homework and exercise (I)

28

For TOMORROW:
Find and bring your bill (mandatory)
Ask yourself about your habits
(mandatory):
o
o
o
o

Time wake up/go to sleep

Unplug battery charges
Use of standby mode in devices
Others specified on KIUI page

Homework and exercise (II)

29

For TOMORROW:
Interview your housemate (if any) to fill the
first part of the interview (mandatory)
Check/list/classify all the electronic instruments
and devices you have at home, especially
those explicitly identified on the tool, pay
attention to energetic class label (mandatory)
Try to look at KIUI website logging in with the
credentials we gave you
see you in LAIB#4 at 13.00

30

The physics beyond the

model
All the calculations performed by KIUI are based
on numerical models to predict the consumption of
the different items in the house depending on its
quality and the performances. Here some
examples but literature is very rich.
1

31

The physics beyond the

model-1 (I)

How would you estimate domestic energy demand?

Probabilistic or deterministic approach?
What must be taken into account?

32

The physics beyond the

model-1 (II)
Input
needed:

Classification of device by operating condition (i.e. type)
Maximum number of daily cycles
Approach: probabilistic. Daily appliance use is modeled
following Bernoulli binomial distribution

average number of cycle per day

maximum number of daily cycles
Particular cases:

for long duty cycles (i.e. audiovisual, computers )

Devices operating 24/7 (i.e. fridges, smoke detectors)

The physics beyond the model-1 (III)

33

The physics beyond the model-1 (IV)

34

How

can seasonal change be taken into account?

Modify the accounting for seasonal effects

with

Where

is the seasonal factor and , , are

parameters used to vary the cycle number
according to seasonal change.
Where where is the i-th day of the year (e.g. on
st
1
January)

Parameter
of Bernoulli distribution is modified as well:

The physics beyond the model-1 (V)

35

Example of the result:

Daily average demand resulting

from different electric lighting types
in an example household: 100%
light incandescent light bulbs
(solid), 100% compact fluorescent
lights (CFL) (point-dashed), 50%

Daily average demand

created by the proposed
consumer demand model
for an example household
with PV installation
(negative contribution).

The physics beyond the model-2 (I)

36

How would you estimate the electric energy

consumption of a washing machine?
This device is present in every house, and it may
absorb significant amount of energy.
How it can be quantified? Probabilistic or
deterministic approach?

37

The physics beyond the

model-2 (II)
Input needed:
Energetic class (dimensionless, e.g. A+++)
Capacity (kg)
Uncertainties:
Users habits
Rotational speed of drum not accounted (during last
phase of the cycle)
Actual clothes load (can be different from the capacity)
Approach: deterministic. Datasheet analysis of 301
different washing machines produced in 2013 by
different brands, considering normal consumption for
washing cycles at 60C

38

The physics beyond the

model-2 (III)

Analyze
the results to find mean value for
each capacity:

Where is the energetic class, is the

capacity in kg and the number of washing
machines, is the i-th energy demand for
washing machine of classof capacity

The physics beyond the model-2 (IV)

39

Energy demand
increases with:
- Capacity
- Worse
energetic class

ear intepolation of points: consumption as a function of capa

The physics beyond the model-2 (V)

40

What

if devices older than 2013 are considered?

Use database and fit the result taking into account
the age of the device ()

The graph actually shows the energy per kilogram loaded per cycle

The physics beyond the model-2 (VI)

41

What if temperature is different from 60C?

Consider a sort of scaling factor from the nominal
temperature of 60C to the operating temperature

is the electric consumption per

years considered for mean value

washing cycle per kilogram of capacity

calculation, is the scaling factor

The corrected energy demand results:

The physics beyond the model-2 (VII)

42

Model validation:

Experimental
campaign: 11
devices in in real
houses,
measurement of
energy demand
during 40 different
washing cycles

Very good agreement model vs

experimental data!

The physics beyond the model-3 (I)

43

A. Milani, L. Savoldi, Report 3 Analysis of electric

and water consumptions for domestic dishwashers,
ver. 03, 11/06/2014.

Input needed:
Energetic class (dimensionless, e.g. A+++)
Capacity (number of covers)
Approach: deterministic. Datasheet analysis
of 13 different dishwashers considering Normal
washing program. (Similar to what has been
done for washing machines). Aging of device
taken into account using corrective factor.

The physics beyond the model-3 (II)

44

Results:
Almost the same water consumption
regardless energetic class: energetic class
accounts only for electricity!

# of covers

The physics beyond the model-3 (III)

45

Results:
Electric demand
comparable among
classes for different
programs, except for
ECO mode (corrective
factor normal mode)
Linear correlation of the kind:

with
capacity and ,
coefficients that
change if ECO mode is

Particular
cases of small

devices in ECO mode

# of covers

The physics beyond the model-3 (IV)

46

Results:
Energy demand depends on the washing
program selected

Intensi
ve
Norma
l
Rapid
Delicat
e

# of covers

Intensive: water
temperature 70C (very
dirty);
Normal: water
temperature between 6065C (normal dirty)
Rapid: water temperature
between 35-45C (not so
dirty);
Delicate: water
temperature 40C (not so

The physics beyond the model-4 (I)

47

A. Milani, L. Savoldi, Report 8 Analysis of electric

consumptions for domestic fridges and freezers,
ver. 01, 25/10/2013.

Input needed:
Energetic class (dimensionless, e.g. A+++)
Volume of fridge/freezer
Approach: deterministic. Datasheet analysis
of 13 different devices. (Similar to what has
been done for washing machines). Aging of
device taken into account using corrective
factor

The physics beyond the model-4 (II)

48

The electric demand is proportional to the equivalent

volume of the device.
volume of c-th compart

nominal temperature of c-th

compart
, , are corrective factor
accounting for the category of
(purchase
before 2011) using a
the device

Account age of the device

corrective factor: accounts for lower efficiency, worse
performance of insulator depending of gas type[1].

factor for initial degree of aging

number of years
factor depending on type of
insulation
[1] Life Cycle
Optimization of Household Refrigerator-Freezer Replacement
University of Michigan http://css.snre.umich.edu/css_doc/CSS04-13.pdf

The physics beyond the model-4 (III)

Daily demand
[kWh/d]

Results:
Electric demand
proportional to equivalent
volume and depending of
the energetic class
Good agreement datasheet
vs experimental campaign
Datash
vs model
eet
Measure
d
Comput
ed

Yearly demand [kWh/y]

49

Equivalent volume
[liters]

Results for category 7: combined fridge and

freezer (very common)

FROM LAST WEEK LECTURE: Bottom-up

statistical approach: a stochastic model
50

Bottom-up statistical approach: a stochastic model

(At least) two different sources of stochasticity can be

identified:
1.
2.

dwelling characterization (equipment)

use of equipment

Stochastic characterization of
dwellings (I)
51

Fraction of dwellings with at least 1 equipment

Probability to have a different number of the same equipment

in the same dwelling (e.g. having multiple televisions). The
input of the model is defined as the cumulative fraction of
dwellings with 1, 2, 3 or 4 equipment, based on the initial
penetration rate (1 Pr). As an example, the fraction of
dwellings with 1 equipment is (Mp1 (1 Pr)) while the one
with 2 equipment is (Mp2 Mp1)

In the case of the kitchen devices, it

is necessary to include the fraction of
electric devices. The gas devices
[J. Ortiz, et al., Stochastic
model
for electrical
loads
in Mediterranean
fraction
is calculated
as (1
FE)
dential building: validation and applications, Energy and buildings, pp. 23-36, 2

Stochastic characterization of
dwellings (II)
52

Stock characterization of the block of apartments in the

Mediterranean Region (Data collection done in SECH-SPAHOUSEC
project, IDAE, PROYECTO SECH-SPAHOUSEC. Anlisis del consumo
energtico en el sec-tor residencial en Espana, in, Instituto para
la Diversificacion y Ahorro de laEnerga, 2011.)

[J. Ortiz, et al., Stochastic model for electrical loads in Mediterranean

dential building: validation and applications, Energy and buildings, pp. 23-36, 2

Stochastic characterization of
dwellings (III)
53

is a random number for each type of equipment e and

dwelling d

[J. Ortiz, et al., Stochastic model for electrical loads in Mediterranean

dential building: validation and applications, Energy and buildings, pp. 23-36, 2

Use of equipment (I)

54

Each equipment is characterized by a technical

dataNominal
set power
Hourly mean power ratio
(available in the
technical sheet of the
equipment)

when the equipment is

ON

ratio between the cycle length and

power of the stand-by
the corresponding integer hours
mode. If the equipment
(rounded to the upper value)
does not have stand-by,
the value is zero
[J. Ortiz, et al., Energy and buildings, pp. 23-36, 20

Use of equipment (III)

55

(Data collection done in SECH-SPAHOUSEC project, IDAE,

PROYECTO SECH-SPAHOUSEC. Anlisis del consumo energtico en
el sec-tor residencial en Espana, in, Instituto para la
Diversificacion y Ahorro de laEnerga, 2011.)

[J. Ortiz, et al., Energy and buildings, pp. 23-36, 20

Use of equipment (II)

56

Once the dwelling characterization is done, the model has to

choose randomly which equipment is ON or OFF (or Standby),using the probability values for each of them generate at
each time step another random number (RNP(t)e):
Probability of use of the equipment e
The equipment
is OFF or in
stand-by
Time step = 1 h
<

The equipment is
ON
Energy consumption
for the dwelling d and
the equipment e at
each time step
[J. Ortiz, et al., Energy and buildings, pp. 23-36, 20

Model validation
57

Benchmark (against other models) and validation against

measurements MUST be carried out before using the
model
parametric
Averagefor
hourly
profile ofanalyses
the energy consumption
for a washing machine: simulation vs. reference
data

[J. Ortiz, et al., Energy and buildings, pp. 23-36, 20

Parametric analyses (I)

58

Check consumption reduction if equipment is updated to

higher energy class: Hourly energy consumption for
dishwasher with different energy labels. Capacity: 12 covers
(without stand-by).

[J. Ortiz, et al., Energy and buildings, pp. 23-36, 20

Parametric analyses (II)

59

Comparison of the
mean hourly energy
consumption for
dwelling with high
performance
equipment (A+++)
and the dwelling
with the average
energy efficiency
class of
Mediterranean
region (Refrigerator:
B; Freezer: B;
Washing machine:
A; Dishwasher: A;
Television: C; Drier:
A).

[J. Ortiz, et al., Energy and buildings, pp. 23-36, 20

Parametric analyses (III)

60

Comparison of the annual

consumption for a dwelling
with high performance
appliances (A+++) and
the dwelling with average
energy efficiency class of
Mediterranean region
(Refrigerator: B; Freezer:
B; Washing machine: A;
Dishwasher: A; Television:
C; Drier: A).

[J. Ortiz, et al., Energy and buildings, pp. 23-36, 2014]

61

FROM LAST WEEK LECTURE: Bottomup statistical approach: a probabilistic

fuzzy logic model

Statistical method
Predict to optimize before optimization it is
important to know the system

Bottom-up statistical approach:

a probabilistic fuzzy logic model
62

attoni et al, A fuzzy logic tool for household electrical consumption modeling, I
nics Society, IECON 2013 - 39th Annual Conference of the IEEE, 2013, pp. 80228

63

Base block: single

appliances (I)
Appliances are classified into different categories:
Continuous use appliances (e.g. Refrigerator,
freezer, WiFi router, cordless phone, clock radios)
Periodical use appliances without human
interaction (e.g. Oven and microwave oven,
dishwasher, washing machine, cooker hood)
Periodical use appliances with human interaction
(e.g. Vacuum cleaner, cooking appliances, hair
dryer)
Multimedia appliances
Lighting

64

Base block: single

appliances (II)

The modeling of the appliances usage has been

performed with a fuzzy approach to determine
whether it is going to be started (down to 1-min
resolution), which in principle depends on factors like:
# of occupants requires experimental infos The
# of unoccupied people can be computed by
subtraction from total # of occupants of the # of
busy occupants.
Typical domestic habits: time the first person gets
up and the last person goes to sleep, Period of the
house unoccupied during the days, Holidays and
w.e. occupancy requires experimental info

Base block: single

appliances (III)

65

Continuous use appliances average load

Periodical use appliances WITHOUT human interaction
average load profile, average period od use, moment of the
day in which the probability of use is greater
Periodical use appliances WITH human interaction
average load profile, average period od use, moment of the
day in which the probability of use is greater, number of
unoccupied people in the dwelling
Multimedia appliances average load, number of active
people in the dwelling, time of the day, time elapsed since
last start
Lighting level of natural daylight, time of the day, number
of occupants of the dwelling, normalized number of lights in
the dwelling

Input parameters
66

time of the
day

time elapsed since the last

appliance
start normalized on his period
DT=T (t).

# of unoccupied people in the

dwelling
sider triangular asymmetric
and trapezoidal functions as membership fu

Membership functions of input

parameters: h(t)
67

For the time of the day (in minutes) the fuzzy set
considered in the model is: Early Morning (EM),
Morning (M), Afternoon (A), Evening (E), Late
Evening (LE)

Time of the day in minutes

Membership functions of input

parameters: DT/T(t)
68

For the time normalized elapsed time to previous

start, consider: Very Advance (VA), Advance (A), In
Time (IT), Late (L), Very Late (VL)

Ratio between the time elapsed since

the last start and the average starting

Membership functions of input

parameters: p(t)
69

For the # of unoccupied people, consider as fuzzy

set: Very Low (VL), Low (L), Medium (M), High (H),
Very high (VH)

Percentage of occupancy of the

dwelling

Membership functions of input

parameters: P(t) & D(t)
70

Probability to start an
appliance

Sigmoid functions
Duration of the appliance
cycle in minutes

Fuzzy rule output: probability function P(t)

Fuzzy Inference System
71

Example: dishwasher (periodical use

appliances without human interaction),
according to the Max-Min FI algorithm:
DT/T(t)

h(t)
P(t)

72

Appliances Fuzzy Inference

System

In the first iteration of the simulation all the configuration

parameters are loaded, e.g. the fuzzy rule set of the
appliance, the consumption profile, the maximum power, the
typical starting frequency, number of people typically
interacting with the appliance
Using, e.g., one minute resolution the probability to start
every single appliance (except for the so called Continuous
use appliances) is evaluated and compare the result with a
random number (between 0 and1). The appliance will start if:

the random number is less than the scaled probability

there is at least one person in the house
there are sufficient active people in the house (only for some
appliances categories)
the sum between the current electrical consumption and the max
power of the appliance is less than the power the customer can
absorb from the grid.

Implementation
73

Prediction of the
electrical
consumption

Validation of the model

74

Model validation results. RMSE, SD and

RMSE% between the simulated and measured values recorded over 12
months within 12 dwellings in central Italy.

March 2012. Daily data for

one
of
the
considered
households in Ripatransone
(AP), Italy. Blue bars are the
simulated valued, red bars
are the measured ones

Parametric analyses
75

The prediction of the electrical

consumption can be complemented by
the prediction of the PV production using
again fuzzy logic or ANNs
The idea to achieve DSM is to model the
user behavior (shift loads, ..) in order to
match production and consumption as
much as possible, or to size the PV
production to match the consumption