UPDATING OF SCIENCE

BASED VOLCANIC DISASTER

RISK REDUCTION
Kirbani Sri Brotopuspito
Presentation on the Plenary Discussion of the 41 st Indonesian
Association of Geophysicits Scientific Meeting
Bandar Lampung 26 29 September 2016

OUTLINES
SCIENCE BASED DISASTER RISK REDUCTION (DRR)
SCIENCE BASED IN VOLCANIC DRR
EXAMPLES
DISCUSSION
Community based volcanic DRR
People live in harmony with active volcanoes.
Cities on volcanoes.

SCIENCE BASED IN VOLCANIC DRR

Disaster risk reduction is the concept and practice of
reducing disaster risks through systematic efforts to
analyze and reduce the causal factors of disasters.
Reducing exposure to hazards, lessening vulnerability of
people and property, wise management of land and the
environment, and improving preparedness and early
warning for adverse events are all examples of disaster
risk reduction.

https://www.unisdr.org/who-we-are/what-is-drr

Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk

Reduction2015 - 2030
IV. Priorities for action
20. Taking into account the experience gained through the implementation of the
Hyogo Framework for Action, and in pursuance of the expected outcome and
goal, there is a need for focused action within and across sectors by States at
local, national, regional and global levels inthe following four priority areas:
Priority 1: Understanding disaster risk.
Priority 2: Strengthening disaster risk governance to manage disaster risk.
Priority 3: Investing in disaster risk reduction for resilience.
Priority 4: Enhancing disaster preparedness for effective response and to
Build Back Better in recovery, rehabilitation and reconstruction.

Priority 1: Understanding disaster risk

23. Policies and practices for disaster risk management should be
based on an understanding of disaster risk in all its dimensions
of vulnerability, capacity, exposure of persons and assets, hazard
characteristics and the environment.
Such knowledge can be leveraged for the purpose of pre-disaster
risk assessment, for prevention and mitigation and for the
development and implementation of appropriate preparedness
and effective response to disasters.

Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk

Reduction2015 - 2030
Priority 1: Understanding disaster risk
Global and regional levels
25. To achieve this, it is important:
(a) To enhance the development and dissemination of
science-based methodologies and tools to record and
share disaster losses and relevant disaggregated data
and statistics, as well as to strengthen disaster risk
modelling, assessment, mapping, monitoring and
multi hazard early warning systems;

Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk

Reduction2015 - 2030
V. Role of stakeholders

(b) Academia, scientific and research entities and networks to

focus on the disaster risk factors and scenarios, including
emerging disaster risks, in the medium and long term; increase
research for regional, national and local application; support
action by local communities and authorities; and support the
interface between policy and science for decision-making;

SCIENCE BASED IN VOLCANIC DRR

SCIENCE SHOULD/COULD CONTRIBUTE IN ALL
PART OF VOLCANIC DRR
UPSTREAM (RESEARCH)
SHAPE, INTERNAL STRUCTURE AND DYNAMIC
OF VOLCANOES
VOLCANIC ERUPTION MECHANISM
VOLCANIC ERUPTION HISTORY AND STATISTICS
VOLCANIC ERUPTION PREDICTION
MONITORING OF VOLCANIC ACTIVITY

SCIENCE BASED IN VOLCANIC DRR

MIDSTREAM (AWARENESS)
EARLY WARNING SYSTEM
VOLCANIC HAZARD MAPS
SIMULATION OF PRIMARY AND SECONDARY
VOLCANIC HAZARDS
EDUCATION
DOWNSTREAM (EXECUTION AND ACTION)
DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM
EVACUATION ROUTES
SOCIO-ENGINEERING REHABILITATION,
RECONSTRUCTION, AND RESILENCE

Volcanos Geometry and its Internal

Structure
Geometry of a volcano is shape and size of a volcano
which can be seen on surface of the earth.
Geodesists and geomorphologies are the most competent
professionals in describing geometry of volcanoes.
We must monitor shape and size of volcanoes which usually
changes (deforms) before and after volcanic eruption
activities.
Usually there is bulging or increase in height and volume of a
volcano before eruption i.e. rising magma deforms geometry of
volcano.
After eruption usually there is significant changes of volcano
geometry. It can be constructive when the eruption is effusive
i.e. gentle lava flow or lava dome building. But, it can be
destructive when the eruption is explosive i.e. violent eruption

Volcanos Geometry and its Internal

Structure
Internal structure of a volcano
Geophysicists do physical parameters measurement survey at
and/or above earth surface at surroundings volcano e.g.
gravity, magnetic, resistivity, temperature, electromagnetic,
radioactive, and seismic surveys.
Geophysicists construct subsurface/underground physical
models of internal structure of a volcano by means of inversion
from physical parameters data at surface to physical source
model beneath a volcano.
Geophysicists together with geologists and geochemists
determine physical meanings of the models

Volcano Internal Dynamics

Magmatic Processes inside Volcano
Multiphase (liquid and gas) magma flow inside magmas chamber
and pipe
Magma bubble creation and collapse
Vibrations and cracks at walls of magma chamber and pipe

Volcanic Eruption
Multi phase (liquid and gas) magma flow in the orifice of magma
conduit (magma jet flow in a volcanic nozzle)
Explosive and effusive eruptions.
Lava dome building.
Eruption size Volcano Explosivity Index (VEI)

EXAMPLES:
G. Merapi
G. Kelud
Mt. St.Helens
G. Sinabung

Merapi lava dome 13-15 Oct 2006

100 px

Dome growth and coule spreading controlled by surface morphology, as

determined by pixel offsets in photographs of the 2006 Merapi eruption
Thomas R. Walter, Antonius Ratdomopurbo, Subandriyo, Nurnaning Aisyah,
Kirbani Sri Brotopuspito, Jacqueline Salzer, Birger Lhr.

2010 MERAPI VOLCANO ERUPTION:

A Study of the Role of Geomorphology for Spatial Planning
Atyanto Dharoko, Suratman Worosuprojo, Kirbani Sri Brotopuspito,
Sudaryono Sastrosasmito, Langgeng Wahyu Santosa, and M. Santosa
wrapu@ugm.ac.id; geografi@ugm.ac.id; kirbani@yahoo.com;
sudaryono_sastrosasmito@yahoo.com; wahyus_72@yahoo.co.id; and
m.santosa@yahoo.com
Universitas Gadjah Mada, Yogyakarta INDONESIA
European Geosciences Union - General Assembly 2011 - Vienna Austria, 3 - 8 April
2011

Changing shape of Merapi Volcano

October 2010

January 2011

Images provided by Kirbani (UGM

Mount St. Helens

May 18th, 1980
eruption
Walter (2011)
Geophys. J. Int.

Mount St. Helens 2004-2008 dome period.

Camera monitoring records interacting growth and collapse
Walter (2011) Geophys. J. Int.

Detecting changes in optical data

Growth stages of Showa-Shinzan

dome, Mount Usu (Hokkaido,
Japan) 1944-45

MODELING OF PYROCLASTIC FLOW BY USING TITAN2D TO PREDICT

PYROCLASTIC HAZARD ZONE IN MERAPI VOLCANO AFTER 2010
ERUPTION

Internal Structure of a Volcano

Geophysicists do survey at and

or above surface of a volcano.
Geophysicists construct an internal structure model
underneath a volcano.

O
O
O
O
O

No time for
Magma to degas;
Explosive!!!

Supply << 107 m3/y

OOO
OOO
OOO

Ascent rate ~ .01 m/s

Supply < 107 m3/y

Ascent rate ~ .1 m/s

OOO
OOO
OOO
OO
OO
OO
O
O

OO0
OOO
OOO

Ascent rate ~ .005 m/s

Fresh
magma,
Gas;
Fast

Supply >> 107 m3/y

OOO
OOO
OOO

Ascent rate ~ .1 m/s

How volcano
(Merapi) might
work?
(Christ NewHall,
2006)

Supply > 107 m3/y

Time
(~ Decades)

Steady
dome Steady slow supply
Convection;
extrusion
Degassing
;

Mt. Kelud 13 February 2015 Eruption.

Based on MTSAT brightness temperatures and a
nearby rawinsonde sounding (Surabaya-Juanda), at
this time (16:19 UTC) the eruption column had
attained a rise height of at least 13 km. Assuming an
eruption onset at 16:15 UTC (which is uncertain)
yields an average plume rise speed of ~54 m/s,
equivalent to a strong thunderstorm updraft.

SATELLITE MONITORING
This MTSAT image from 16:59 UTC shows the
expanding volcanic umbrella cloud at the neutral
buoyancy height and a region of warmer brightness
temperatures
indicating
overshoot
into
the
stratosphere.

Suomi NPP/VIIRS thermal IR image of the Kelut

eruption plume at 17:28 UTC on Feb 13 (courtesy of
Scott Bachmeier at the CIMSS Satellite Blog). The
image shows very cold cloud-top temperatures in the
umbrella cloud, with a notable warmer region
indicating overshooting into the stratosphere.

Suomi NPP/VIIRS Day/Night Band (DNB) image of the

Kelut eruption plume at 17:28 UTC on Feb 13
(courtesy of Scott Bachmeier at the CIMSS Satellite
Blog). The image shows the plume illuminated by
reflected moonlight (it was local nighttime at this
time) and shows gravity waves on the surface of the
expanding umbrella cloud.

IAVCEI RSC web

https://sites.google.com/site/iavceirscweb/eruptions/
kelut-2014

EDUCATION
http://www.qitepinmath.org/2015-11-30-07-19-07/item/311disarster-risk-reduction-volcanic-eruptions-2014

Education = Preparedness, Safety, and Resiliency

http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/vhp/education.ht

EDUCATION

DISCUSSION
Community based Volcanic DRR
Traditional local wisdome Community based modern early
warning system which is synergized with PVMBG, BNPB, and
Local Government.

People live in harmony with active volcanoes

Volcanoes also are rich of natural resources e.g. water, fertile
soil, and geothermal energy, as well as interesting tourism
objects.
The need of Smart DRR is a must.

Cities on Volcanoes (IAVCEI)

Cities on volcanoes 8 (Yogyakarta September 2014): Living in
harmony with volcano - Bridging the will of nature to society

Living in harmony with volcano - Bridging the will of nature to society.

https://www.citiesonvolcanoes9.com/en/

https://www.citiesonvolcanoes9.com/en/

THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR

YOUR KIND ATTENTION
kirbani@ugm.ac.id
kirbani@yahoo.com