Perencanaan Waktu Proyek

PT.
PERUSAHAAN LISTRIK NEGARA (Persero)

PENYALURAN DAN PUSAT PENGATUR BEBAN JAWA BALI
Afrizal N
PERENCANAAN WAKTU PROYEK
Afrizal N
The Project Management

Knowledge Areas
4. Project Integration
Management
5. Project Scope
Management
6. Project Time
Management
7. Project Cost
Management
8. Project Quality
9. Project Human
Resource Management
Management
10. Project Communications Management
11. Project Risk 12. Project ProcureManagement

ment Management
Afrizal N
PMBOK PMI ed 2004

Section 3:
Chapter 6 :
Project Time Management
6.1 Activity Definition

6.2
6.3
6.4
6.5
6.6
PMBOK p.
127-130
Activity Sequencing PMBOK p. 130135
PMBOK p. 135Activity Resource Estimating
138
Activity Duration Estimating
PMBOK p. 139143
Schedule Development
PMBOK p.
143-152
Schedule Control
PMBOK p.
152-156
Afrizal N
PMBOK p.
123
PROJECT TIME MANAGEMENT

6.1 Activity Definition
1 Inputs
.1. Enterprise environmental factors
.2. Organizational process assets
3. Project scope statement
4. WBS
.5. WBS dictionary
.6. Project Management plan
2 Tools and Technniques
.1. Decomposition
.2. Templates
.3. Rolling wave planning
.4. Expert judgment
.5. Planning component
3 Outputs
.1. Activity list
.2. Activity atributes
.3. Milestone list
.4. Requested changes
6.4 Activity Duration

Estimating
1 Inputs
.3. Project scope statement
.4. Activity list
.6. Activity resource requirements
.7. Resource calendars
.8. Project management plan
. Risk register
. Activity cost estimates
.1. Expert judgment
.2. Analogous estimating
.3. Parametric estimating
.4. Three-point estimates
.5. Reserve analysis
3 Outputs
.1. Activity duration estimates
.2. Activity atributes (updates)
(PMBOK Guide p. 125)
6.2 Activity Sequencing

1 Inputs
.2. Activity list
.4. Milestone list
.5. Approved change request
1. Precedence diagramming method (PDM)
2. Arrow diagramming method (ADM)
3. Schedule network tamplates
4. Dependaency determination
5. Applying leads and lags
3 Outputs
1. Project schedule network diagrams
2. Activity list (updates)
3. Activity atributes (updates)
4. Requested changes
6.5 Schedule Development

1 Inputs
.3. Activity list
.5. Project schedule network diagrams
7. Resource calendars
. Risk register
3 Outputs
.1. Schedule network analysis
.1. Project schedule
.2. Critical path methode
.2. Schedule model data
.3. Schedule compression
.3. Schedule baseline
.4. What if-scenario analysis
.4. Resource requirement (updates)
.5. Resource leveling
.6. Critical chain method
.6. Project calendars (updates)
.7. Project management sofware .7. Requested changes
.8. Applying calendars
.8. Project management plan (updates)
.9. Adjusting leads and lags
. Schedule management plan (updates)
10. Schedule model
Afrizal N
Overview
6.3 Activity Resource
Estimating
1 Inputs
.3. Activity list
.5. Resource availability
.1. Expert judgment
.2. Alternative analysis
.3. Published estimating data
.4. Project management sofware
.5. Bottom-up estimating
3 Outputs
.3. Resource breakdown structure
.4. Resource calendars (updates)
6.6 Schedule Control

1 Inputs
.1. Schedule management plan
.3. Performance reports
.4. Approved changes request
.1. Progress reporting
.2. Schedule change control system
.3. Performance measurement
.4. Project management software
.5. Variance analysis
.6. Schedule comparison bar chart
3 Outputs
.1. Schedule model data (updates)
.2. Schedule baseline (updates)
.3. Performance measurements
.4. Request changes
.5. Recommended corrective actions
.6. Organizational process assets (updates)
.7. Activity list (updates)
.9. Project management plan (updates)
Scope Definition
5.2
(3.2.2.3)
Create WBS
Project Time Management Process Flow Diagram
5.3
(3.2.2.4)
Enterprise
Environmental
Factors
Organizational
Process Assets
Select Seller
5.2
Project Scope Statement

WBS
WBS
Dictionary
7.1
Organizational Policies
Historical Information
Project Calendar
Resource Availability
Performance
Reporting
10.3
Activity
Sequencing
6.2 (3.2.2.6)
(3.2.3.1)
Close Project
4.7
(3.2.5.1)
Develop Project
Management Plan
4.3
(3.2.2.1)
Approved Changes Requests

Approved Corrective Actions
Requested Changes
Project Management Plan (updates)
Project Schedule Network Diagram
Activity
Resource
Estimating
6.3 (3.2.2.7)
Requested Changes
Activity Resource Requirements
RBS
Resource Calendar (updates)
Activity Duration
Estimating
6.4 (3.2.2.8)
Requested Changes
Risk Register
Activity Duration Estimates
Schedule
Development
6.5 (3.2.2.9)
Performance Reports
(3.2.4.9)
Direct & Manage

Project Execution
4.4
Activity Cost Estimates
(3.2.2.10)
Risk Management
Planning 11.211.5 (3.2.2.15)
Scope Management Plan
Activity List, Activity, Attributes.

Milestone List
(3.2.3.3)
Cost Estimating
Project Management Plan
(3.2.2.3)
Acquire Project
Team 9..2
Activity
Definition
6.1 (3.2.2.5)
Work Performance Information
Schedule
Control
Afrizal
6.6 N
(3.2.4.5)
Organizational Process Assets (updates)

Requested Changes
Performance Measurements
Activity List (updates)
Activity Atributes (updates)
Schedule Baseline (updates)
Schedule Model data (updates)
Project Schedule
Requested Changes,
Recommended Corrective Actions
Project Schedule,
Sch.Model Data,
Sch.Baseline, Resource
Requirement (updates),
Project Calendar
(updates)
Integrated Change
Control
4.6
(3.2.4.2)
6. 1. ACTIVITY DEFINITION
INPUTS
Melibatkan pengidentifikasian dan dokumentasi pekerjaan yang telah
direncanakan untuk dilaksanakan. Prosesnya meng identifikasi
deliverables pada level paling bawah dalam WBS, juga disebut work
package.
Work package direncanakan kedalam komponen yang lebih kecil yang
disebut Jadwal kegiatan sebagai dasar estimating, scheduling, executing,
monitoring & controling pekerjaan proyek. Terkandung di dalam proses
ini adalah pentingnya menggambarkan suatu kegiatan seperti yang
dimaksud
bahwa
sasaran hasil proyek akan tercapai.Inputs
.1.
Enterprise
environmental
Inputs: :
.1.
factors
.1.Enterprise
Enterpriseenvironmental
environmental
factors
(6.1.1.1 p.127)
factors
.2.
Organizational
Pada (4.1.1.3) dapat disesuaikan
.2. Organizationalprocess
processassets
assets
3.
Project
scope
statement
termaksuk tersedianya project
4.
management system dan scheduling
4.WBS
WBS
.5.
sofware tools
.5.WBS
WBSdictionary
dictionary
.6.
Project
.6. ProjectManagement
Managementplan
plan
(6.1.1.2 p.127)
(4.1.1.4) berisi kebijakan, baik formal
maupun non formal, prosedur, panduan
untuk mengembangkan Activity
definitions.
Historical information dari proyek
sebelumnya dapat menetapkan
Afrizal N
7
schedule activities.
INPUTS
(6.1.1.3 p.127)
Deliverable proyek, constraint dan
assumsi yang ada pada project scope
statement (5.2.3.1) dapat disesuaikan
sepanjang
activity definitions.
4. WBS (6.1.1.4
p.128)
WBS (5.3.3.2) sebagai masukan
schedule activity definition.
Inputs
Inputs: :
.1.
.1.Enterprise
environmental
factors
factors
.2.
Organizational
processassets
assets
3.3.Project
scope
statement
Project scope statement
4.4.WBS
WBS
.5.
.5.WBS
WBSdictionary
dictionary
.6.
Project
.6. ProjectManagement
Managementplan
plan
5. WBS Dictionary (6.1.1.5 p.128)

WBS (5.3.3.3) sebagai masukan
schedule activity definition.
.6. Project Management Plan
(6.1.1.6 p.128)
Berisi Schedule management plan
(chapter 6) memandu mengembangkan
dan merencanakan Schedule activities
dan project scope management plan.
Afrizal N
Contoh
: WBS
(Basic Knowledge)
TOTAL PROGRAM
MANAGERIAL
LEVEL
PROJECT
TASK
TECHNICAL
LEVEL
WORK
PACKAGE
PROJECT
TASK
PROJECT
TASK
SUB TASK
SUB TASK
WORK
PACKAGE
WORK
PACKAGE
LEVEL OF
EFFORT
LEVEL OF
EFFORT
Afrizal N
LEVEL 1
PROJECT
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
SUB TASK
LEVEL 4
LEVEL 5
LEVEL OF
EFFORT
LEVEL 6
WORK PACKAGE
REPRESENTS UNITS OF WORK AT THE LEVEL WHERE THE WORK IS
PERFORMED
CLEARLY
DISTINGUISHES
ONE
WORK PACKAGE FROM ALL
OTHERS ASSIGNED TO A SINGLE FUNCTIONAL GROUP.

CONTAINS CLEARLY DEFINED START
END DATES THAT ARE
REPRESENTATIVE OF PHYSICAL ACCOMPLISHMENT

SPECIFIES A BUDGET IN TERMS OF DOLLARS, MANHOUR OR OTHER
MEASURABLE UNITS.
LIMITS THE WORK TO BE PERFORMED TO RELATIVELY
SHORT
PERIODS OF TIME TO MINIMIZE THE WORK-IN- PROCESS EFFORT.
Afrizal N
10
Contoh : WBS
Afrizal N
11
WBS - LEVEL
(Basic Knowledge)
Ifluenced by :
Level of Detail
Level of Risk
Level of Control
Estimate accuracy
Work package value
Work pcckage man-hour
Afrizal N
12
TECHNIQUES
.1. Decomposition (6.1.2.1 p.128)
.2. Templates (6.1.2.2 p.128)
.3. Rolling Wave Planning (6.1.2.3
p.128)
.4. Expert Judgment (6.1.2.4
p.129)
.5. Planning Component (6.1.2.5
p.129)
Afrizal N
TOOLS &
Tools
Tools&&Techniques
Techniques
.1.
.1.Decomposition
Decomposition
.2.
.2.Templates
Templates
.3.
Rolling
.3. Rollingwave
waveplanning
planning
.4.
Expert
judgment
.4. Expert judgment
.5.
.5.Planning
Planningcomponent
component
13
WBS - Decomposition (Basic Knowledge)

Identify the major elements of the project
Subdividing the total effort into discrete and logical subelements
Decide if adequate cost and duration estimates can be
developed at the level of detail for each element.
Work package is a deliverable at the lowest level of the work
breakdown structure. A typical work package may be 200-300
hours or
approximately
two weeks
duration.
Check the proposed WBS satisfied both functional and project

requirement.
Afrizal N
14
WBS Numbering System

(Basic Knowledge)
Linked to project account, corporate account, client account.
Linked to the person responsible carrying out the work.
Use to roll-up project for utilization of hierarchical report in planning and
control purposes.
Can be alphabetical, numeric or alphanumeric (letters and numbers)
Afrizal N
15
Calendars
(Basic Knowledge)
Describe when time is available for work to be performed
Define time units, length of work week, non working period :

Day's of the week
Hours of the day
Holidays or non-working period
All activities must be assigned a calendar
A typical project requires several calendars to represent different work

patterns (time unit must be same)
Afrizal N
16
OUTPUTS
.1. Activity List (6.1.3.1 p.129)
.2. Activity Attributes (6.1.3.2
p.130)
.3. Milestone List (6.1.3.3 p.130)
Outputs
Outputs
.1.
Activity
.1. Activitylist
list
.2.
Activity
attributes
.2. Activity attributes
.3.
.3.Milestone
Milestonelist
list
.4.
Requested
changes
.4. Requested Changes (6.1.3.4

p.130)
Afrizal N
17
Activity List (Basic Knowledge)

BAR CHART
Afrizal N
18
6. 2. ACTIVITY SEQUENCING
INPUTS
Melibatkan pengidentifikasian dan dokumentasi hubungan antaraktivitas secara logic. Aktivitas harus dihubungkan dengan teliti
untuk mendukung pengembangan berikutnya/ yang akan datang
dari suatu jadwal yang realistis. Peruntutan dapat dilakukan
dengan bantuan dari suatu komputer.
(6.2.1.1 p.131)
.2. Activity list (6.2.1.2 p.131)
Inputs
Inputs: :
.1.
.1.Project
Projectscope
scopestatement
statement
.2.
Activity
list
.2. Activity list
.3.
.3.Activity
Activityattributes
attributes
.4.
Milestone
.4. Milestonelist
list
.5.
Approved
change
.5. Approved changerequest
request
.3. Activity atributes (6.2.1.3

p.131)
.4. Milestone list (6.2.1.4 p.131)
.5. Approved change request
(6.2.1.5 p.131)
Afrizal N
19
INPUTS
1. Precedence diagramming
method (PDM)
(6.2.2.1 p. 132)
2. Arrow diagramming method
(ADM)
(6.2.2.2 p. 133)
3. Schedule network templates
(6.2.2.3 p. 133)
Tools
Tools&&Techniques
Techniques
1.1.Precedence
diagramming
Precedence diagrammingmethod
method(PDM)
(PDM)
2.2.Arrow
diagramming
method
(ADM)
Arrow diagramming method (ADM)
3.3.Schedule
Schedulenetwork
networktemplates
templates
4.4.Dependency
determination
Dependency determination
5.5.Applying
Applyingleads
leadsand
andlags
lags
4. Dependency determination
(6.2.2.4 p. 133)
Mandatory dependencies
Discretionary dependencies
External dependencies
5. Applying leads and lags (6.2.2.5
p. 134)
Afrizal N
20
Method Activity Sequencing

Precedence diagramming method (PDM)
ES
ES
EF
EF
Activity Name
Activity Name
ES
EF
Duration
Activity Name
Duration
LS
LF
LS
LF
ES
EF
ES
Activity Name
Activity Name
Duration
Duration
LS
LF
LS
Duration
EF
LS
LF
LF
AON : Activity On Node
Arrow diagramming method (ADM)

B
Start
A
Finish
F
D
E
AOA : Activity On Arrow
Afrizal N
21
Method Activity Sequencing

Conditional diagramming method
GERT : System Dynamic Model
Allow : Loops or Conditional Branches
Network Templete
Artemis Int.S.Corp
: Artemis (7) Project management.
Primavera System Inc. : Primavera Project Planner (P3, 3.1)

Microsoft
: Microsoft Project (2002)
Afrizal N
22
Activity List : Daftar aktivitas meliputi semua aktivitas yang akan dilakukan untuk menye
lesaikan proyek. Harus dapat diorganisir dan sebagai pengembangan dari
WBS
untuk
memastikan bahwa aktivitas itu lengkap, dan tidak meliputi aktivitas yang tidak
diperlukan
dari lingkup proyek. Dengan WBS, daftar aktivitas meliputi uraian dari tiap
aktivitas untuk memastikan bahwa anggota tim proyek akan memahami bagaimana pekerjaan
lakukan.
Product Description : Dokumen uraian produk yang menunjukkan karakteristik produk atau
jasa layanan. Mempunyai sedikit detil pada tahap awal dan lebih datail di kemudian
dengan karakteristik produk yang semakin ditekuni. Karakteristik produk sering
mempengaruhi urutan. Dan uraian produk biasanya ditinjau ulang untuk memastikan
ketelitian.
Mandatory Dependencies : Ketergantungan Wajib yang tidak bisa dipisahkan dari wujud
pekerjaan yang telah dilakukan. Ketergantungan wajib adalah juga dinamakan
Hard Logic.
Descretionary Dependencies : Ketergantungan tidak wajib biasanya ditentukan oleh tim
proyek. Mempunyai kepedulian ( dan secara penuh di-dokumentasikan), Pada umumnya
digambarkan berdasar pada pengetahuan: Best practise, dan yang tidak umum, dan
biasanya dinamakan Prefered logic, Preferential logic, atau shoft logic.
External Dependencies : Ketergantungan eksternal yang melibatkan suatu hubungan antar
aktivitas proyek dan bukan aktivitas proyek..
Milestone : Peristiwa yang diperlukan untuk
bagian
dari urutan aktivitas, untuk
Afrizal
N
memastikan
bahwa kebutuhan dalam memenuhi milstone(s) dijumpai.
23
Activity Relationships
Types
Finish To Start
Activity A
Activity B
Activity A
Activity A
Start To Start
Start To Start
With Lag
Activity B
SS + 5
Activity B
Activity A
Activity A
Finish To Finish
Finish To Finish
Activity B
FF + 3
With Lag
Activity B
Activity A
Start To Finish
Start To Finish
Activity B
Finish To Start
With Lag
Activity A
With Lead = - Lag

FS + 7
Activity B
Afrizal N
Activity A
FF + 0
Activity B
24
OUTPUTS
1. Project schedule network
diagrams
(6.2.3.1 p. 135)
2. Activity list (updates)
(6.2.3.2 p. 135)
Outputs
Outputs
1.1.Project
Projectschedule
schedule
network
networkdiagrams
diagrams
2.2.Activity
list
Activity list
(updates)
(updates)
3.3.Activity
Activityattributes
attributes
(updates)
(updates)
4.4.Requested
Requestedchanges
changes
3. Activity attributes (updates)

(6.2.3.3 p. 135)
4. Requested changes
(6.2.3.4 p. 135)
PMBOK Guide page 130
Afrizal N
25
6. 3. ACTIVITY RESOURCE ESTIMATING

INPUTS
Estimate resources (persons, equipment, material) , Quantity,
when will be available untuk melaksanakan kegiatan proyek.
Dikoordinasikan dengan proses Cost Estimating (7.1)
.1. Enterprise environmental
factors
(6.3.1.1 p. 136)
(6.3.1.2 p. 136)
Inputs
Inputs: :
.1.
.1.Enterprise
environmentalfactors
factors
.2.
Organizational
process
assets
.3.
.3.Activity
Activitylist
list
.4.
Activity
attributes
.5.
.5.Resource
Resourceavailability
availability
.6.
Project
management
.6. Project managementplan
plan
.3. Activity list

(6.3.1.3 p. 136)
(6.3.1.4 p. 136)
.5. Resource availability
(6.3.1.5 p. 137)
(6.3.1.6 p. 137)
Afrizal N
26
6. 3. ACTIVITY RESOURCE ESTIMATING TOOLS &

TECHNIQUES
Tools
Tools&&Techniques
Techniques
.1.
.1.Expert
Expertjudgment
judgment
.2.
.2.Alternative
Alternativeanalysis
analysis
.3.
Published
estimating
.3. Published estimatingdata
data
.4.
Project
management
sofware
.5.
.5.Bottom-up
Bottom-upestimating
estimating
.1. Expert judgment

(6.3.2.1 p. 137)
.2. Alternative analysis
(6.3.2.2 p. 137)
.3. Published estimating data
(6.3.2.3 p. 137)
(6.3.2.4 p. 137)
.5. Bottom-up estimating
(6.3.2.5 p. 137)
Afrizal N
27
6. 3. ACTIVITY RESOURCE ESTIMATING

PMBOK
OUTPUTS
(6.3.3.1 p. 138)
(6.3.3.2 p. 138)
.3. Resource breakdown structure
(6.3.3.3 p. 138)
.4. Resource calendars (updates)
(6.3.3.4 p. 138)
Guide page 136
Outputs
Outputs
.1.
Activity
.1. Activityresource
resource
requirements
requirements
.2.
Activity
.2. Activityatributes
atributes
(updates)
(updates)
.3.
Resource
.3. Resourcebreakdown
breakdown
structure
structure
.4.
Resource
.4. Resourcecalendars
calendars
(updates)
(updates)
.5.
Requested
.5. Requestedchanges
changes

(6.3.3.5 p. 138)
Afrizal N
28
6. 4. ACTIVITY DURATION ESTIMATING

INPUTS
Adalah proses dari mendapatkan informasi pada lingkup proyek
dan sumber daya dan kemudian pengembangan jangka waktu
/durasi sebagai masukan terhadap jadwal/ schedule. Masukan
untuk perkiraan dari jangka waktu proyek secara khas didapat
dari seseorang atau group didalam tim proyek dimana telah
familiar / ahli terhadap sifat dari kegiatan khusus
tersebut..
Inputs
Inputs: :
.1. Enterprise environmental
factors
(6.4.1.1 p. 140)
(6.4.1.2 p. 140)
(6.4.1.3 p. 140)
.1.
.1.Enterprise
factors
.2.
Organizational
process
assets
.3.
.3.Project
Projectscope
scopestatement
statement
.4.
Activity
list
.4. Activity list
.5.
.5.Activity
Activityattributes
attributes
.6.
Activity
resource
.6. Activity resourcerequirements
requirements
.7.
Resource
calendars
.8.
.8.Project
Projectmanagement
managementplan
plan
. . Risk
register
Risk register
. . Activity
Activitycost
costestimates
estimates
.4. Activity list

(6.4.1.4 p. 140)
(6.4.1.5 p. 140)
Afrizal N
29

INPUTS
Adalah proses dari mendapatkan informasi pada lingkup proyek
dan sumber daya dan kemudian pengembangan jangka waktu
/durasi sebagai masukan terhadap jadwal/ schedule. Masukan
untuk perkiraan dari jangka waktu proyek secara khas didapat
dari seseorang atau group didalam tim proyek dimana telah
Inputs
::
familiar / ahli terhadap sifat dari kegiatan khusus
tersebut..
Inputs
(6.4.1.6 p. 140)
(6.4.1.7 p. 141)
. Risk register
. Activity cost estimates
(6.4.1.8 p. 141)
Afrizal N
.1.
.1.Enterprise
factors
.2.
Organizational
process
assets
.3.
.3.Project
Projectscope
scopestatement
statement
.4.
Activity
list
.4. Activity list
.5.
.5.Activity
Activityattributes
attributes
.6.
Activity
resource
.6. Activity resourcerequirements
requirements
.7.
Resource
calendars
.8.
.8.Project
Projectmanagement
managementplan
plan
. . Risk
register
Risk register
. . Activity
Activitycost
costestimates
estimates
30
6. 4. ACTIVITY DURATION ESTIMATING TOOLS &

TECHNIQUES
.1. Expert judgment(6.4.2.1 p. 141)
.2. Analogous estimating (6.4.2.2

p. 141)
Tools
Tools&&Techniques
Techniques
.1.
Expert
judgment
.1. Expert judgment
.2.
.2.Analogous
Analogousestimating
estimating
.3.
Parametric
estimating
.3. Parametric estimating
.4.
.4.Three-point
Three-pointestimates
estimates
.5.
Reserve
analysis
.5. Reserve analysis
.3. Parametric estimating (6.4.2.3

p. 142)
.4. Three-point estimates (6.4.2.4
p. 142)
.5. Reserve analysis (6.4.2.5 p.
142)
Afrizal N
31
Activity Duration Calculation

Activity
ID
Activity
Description
Time Estimated
Expected
Time
Variance
Std.Dev
(TE)
Successor
A0
Start
Kegiatan A
A1
Kegiatan A
13
Kegiatan B, C
A2
Kegiatan B
0.1
0.3
Kegiatan D,E,F
A3
Kegiatan C
11
13
11
0.4
0.7
Kegiatan H
A4
Kegiatan D
0.1
0.3
Kegiatan G
A5
Kegiatan E
10
13
10
A6
Kegiatan F
13
1.8
1.3
Kegiatan H
A7
Kegiatan G
0.1
0.3
Kegiatan I
A8
Kegiatan H
12
Kegiatan I
A9
Kegiatan I
0.1
0.3
A10
Finish
TE =
a + 4m + b
6
((b a)/6)2
a = most optimistic time

m = most likely time / waktu hampir
bisa dipastikan
Afrizal N
b = most pessimistic time
Duration =
Kegiatan G,H
Finish
Man-hours
Amount of worker
32
Probability Completion Time

Completion Time for the probability 25 % (appendix E table)
Z = -0.68
Z = D TE / 2CP
- 0.68 = D 36 / 3.2
D (Desire Project completion time ) = - 0.68 X 1.8 + 36 = 34.7

hari = 35 hari.
Completion Time for the probability 50 % (appendix E table) Z = 0

D (Desire Project completion time ) = 36 hari
Completion Time for the probability 75% (appendix E table) Z =

0.70
D (Desire Project completion time ) = 0.70 X 1.8 + 36 = 37 hari
Afrizal N
33
PERT Duration Calculation

For a single Activity (Tree-Point
Estimates)
Higher
Most Likely
(Used in original CPM calculation)
PERT Weighted Average =

Optimistic + 4 X Most Likely + Pessimistic
Probability of
Occurrence
6
Beta Distribution
Optimistic
Pessimistic
Lower
Shorter
Possible Durations
Afrizal N
Longer
34
Duration Probability Calculation

(Example)
Activity A has pessimistic (b) estimate of 36 days, a most likely (m) estimate of 21
days, and an optimistic (a) estimate of 6 days. What is the probability that actifity A
will be completed in 16 to 26 days ?
16 days
21 days
34.13%
26 days
34.13%
13.6%
0.14 %
13.6%
2.13 %
2.13 %
-5 days
0.14 %
+5 days
68.26 %
95.46 %
99.73 %
Mean = [6 + (4 X 21) + 36 ] / 6 = 21 days

SD
= (36 6) / 6 = 5 days
The probability that activity will be completed in 16 to 26 days = 68.26%
Afrizal N
35

INPUTS
Outputs
Outputs
.1.
Activity
.1. Activityduration
duration
estimates
estimates
.2.
Activity
.2. Activityattributes
attributes
(updates)
(updates)

(6.4.3.1 p. 142)
.2. Activity attributes (updates)
(6.4.3.2 p. 143)
Afrizal N
36
6. 5. SCHEDULE DEVELOPMENT
INPUTS
Proses berulang didalam menentukan tanggal start dan finish
dari suatu aktivitas/kegiatan proyek. Jika tanggal start dan finish
tidaklah realistis, maka proyek tidak mungkin akan selesai
sesuai jadwal yang diharapkan.
Didalam Schedule development, duration estimates dan
resource estimates selalu direview dan direvisi untuk
menciptakan approved project schedule yang Inputs
berguna
untuk
Inputs: :
.1. Organizational
process assets
mengontrol progress.
.1.
.1.Organizational
Organizationalprocess
processassets
assets
(6.5.1.1 p. 143)
2.2.Project
Projectscope
scopestatement
statement
.3.
Activity
list
.3. Activity list
.4.
.4.Activity
Activityattributes
attributes
.5.
Project
schedule
.5. Project schedulenetwork
networkdiagrams
diagrams
.6.
Activity
resource
requirements
7.7.Resource
Resourcecalendars
calendars
.8.
Activity
duration
.8. Activity durationestimates
estimates
.9.
Project
management
plan
. . Risk
register
Risk register

(6.5.1.2 p. 143)
.3. Activity list
(6.5.1.3 p. 144)
(6.5.1.3 p. 144)
Afrizal N
37
INPUTS
.5. Project schedule network
diagrams
(6.5.1.5 p. 144)
(6.5.1.6 p. 144)
7. Resource calendars
(6.5.1.7 p. 144)
(6.5.1.8 p. 144)
Inputs
Inputs: :
.1.
.1.Organizational
Organizationalprocess
processassets
assets
2.2.Project
scope
statement
Project scope statement
.3.
Activity
.3. Activitylist
list
.4.
Activity
attributes
.5.
.5.Project
Projectschedule
schedulenetwork
networkdiagrams
diagrams
.6.
Activity
resource
requirements
7.7.Resource
Resourcecalendars
calendars
.8.
Activity
duration
.8. Activity durationestimates
estimates
.9.
Project
management
plan
. . Risk
register
Risk register

(6.5.1.9 p. 144)
. Risk register
Afrizal N
38
Schedule Development
Compression (With No Impact)
Start
(Basic Knowledge)
Start Mfg
Design
Detail
Design
Detail
Check
Purchase
Material
Purchase
Material
Check
Compression
Tools : Duration Compression

1.
Crashing :
Doing anything to reduce the schedule completion of the project .
The rule in implementing Crashing are :

a. Crash on Critical Path
b. Crash Critical Activities whose have cheapest cost
2.
Fast Tracking
AfrizaltoNbe done with some overlap.

Activities that schedule sequence are scheduled
Hints : a. Leads, b. Logic relationship.
39
TECHNIQUES
.1. Schedule network analysis
(6.5.1.5 p. 144)
.2. Critical path methods
(6.5.1.6 p. 144)
.3. Schedule compression
(6.5.1.7 p. 144)
.4. What if-scenario analysis
(6.5.1.8 p. 144)
.5. Resource leveling (6.5.1.9 p.
144)
.6. Critical chain method (6.5.1.8
p. 144)
(6.5.1.9 p. 144)
TOOLS &
Tools
Tools&&Techniques
Techniques
.1.
Schedule
network
.1. Schedule networkanalysis
analysis
.2.
Critical
path
methods
.2. Critical path methods
.3.
.3.Schedule
Schedulecompression
compression
.4.
What
if-scenario
.4. What if-scenarioanalysis
analysis
.5.
Resource
leveling
.5. Resource leveling
.6.
.6.Critical
Criticalchain
chainmethod
method
.7.
Project
management
.7. Project management
sofware
sofware
.8.
.8.Applying
Applyingcalendars
calendars
.9.
Adjusting
leads
.9. Adjusting leadsand
andlags
lags
10.
Schedule
model
10. Schedule model
.8. Applying calendars (6.5.1.8 p.

144)
9. Adjusting leads and lags (6.5.1.9
p. 144)
10. Schedule model (6.5.1.9 p.
144)
Afrizal N
40
CPM
(Example)
Calculation Early dates, Late dates and Total Float

Identify Critical Path.
SS + 5
Activity D
Activity E
Duration= 8
Duration=2
Activity B
Activity A
Activity G
Duration=10
Duration=5
Duration= 5
Activity F
Duration=5
Activity C
FF + 2
Duration=15
Afrizal N
41
CPM
(Example)
Calculation Early dates

Forward Pass
11
SS + 5
5
Activity A
19
20
Activity D
Activity E
Duration= 8
Duration=2
23
6
1
18
15
27
Activity G
Activity B
Duration=5
Duration=10
21
Duration= 5
25
Activity F
20
Activity C
Duration=5
FF + 2
Duration=15
ES
EF
= Early Start
= Early Finish
= EF pred terbesar + 1
= ES + OD 1
Afrizal N
42
CPM
(Example)
Calculation Early dates, Late dates

Backward Pass
11
SS + 5
18
Activity E
Duration= 8
Duration=2
21
22
15
27
Activity G
Activity B
Duration=5
Duration=10
Duration= 5
20
23
Activity A
20
Activity D
13
19
21
20
20
Activity C
25
23
27
Activity F
Duration=5
21
25
FF + 2
Duration=15
6
LF
LS
= Late Finish
= Late Start
20
= ES suc 1
= LF OD + 1
Afrizal N
43
CPM
(Example)
Calculation Early dates, Late dates, Total Float

Foreword Pass
Backward Pass
11
SS + 5
18
Activity E
Duration= 8
Duration=2
TF
TF
1
0
22
23
27
Activity G
Duration=5
8
2
21
20
5
5
0
= Total Float
21
15
Duration=10
Duration= 5
20
2
Activity B
5
Activity A
20
Activity D
13
6
19
25
Activity F
20
Duration=5
Activity C
21
25
Duration=15
20
23
0
27
0
FF + 2
Critical Path
= ES suc EF pred 1 = Zero = Critical

= LS ES; LF EF
FF
= Free Float
= LF OD ES ; FF is defined as the amount of time
an activity can be delayed without delaying the early start of any
44
immediately following activities Afrizal N
Float
= Float or slack is a measure of scheduling flexibility.
Formulas
ES
EF
LF
LS
TF
= Early Start
= Early Finish
= Late Start
= Late Finish
= Total Float
= EF pred terbesar + 1
= ES + OD 1
= ES suc 1
= LF OD + 1
= ES suc EF pred 1 = Zero = Critical
= LS ES; LF EF
FF = Free Float
= LF OD ES ; FF is defined as the amount of time an activity
can be delayed without delaying the early start of any immediately following
activities
Float = Float or slack is a measure of scheduling flexibility.
OD = Original Duration
Pred = Predecessor
Suc = Successor
Bwpas = LF(1) akhir
LF(2)
= EF akhir
= LS suc terbesar 1
Bwpas = LF(1) require = EF akhir

LF(2)
= LS suc terbesar 1
CPM (Critical Path Method) : Determine the group of activities that cannot be delayed without delaying
the completion date for the entire project.
In order to find :
1.
Early Dates: By forward Pass Calculation
2.
Late Dates : By Backward Pass Calculation
3.
Total Float : By substract early dates from late dates
Afrizal N
4.
Total float is belong to entire string of activities Not to an individual activity
45
CPM
(Example)
Negative Float
Change on impose date : Impose finish date of work period 12 (Constrained)
1
3
Activity A
Duration= 3
-5
-6
TF
-3
-6
Activity B
Duration= 1
-2
-6
8
Activity C
Duration= 4
-2
-6
-1
-6
2
-6
18
Activity D
Duration= 10
3
-6
12
-6
Represents an Impossible situation so it must be eliminated

Solutions to eliminate Negative Float :
1.
Surrender; let the end dates slip
2.
Add resources ( Crashing)
3.
De-scope (best implement in the conceptual stage)
4.
Improve the work process; fast tracking and work smarter

Afrizal N
46
Compression (With Crashing)

(Basic Knowledge)
All Activity Crash
h
as
Cr
Program Cost ( $ / IDR )
Minimum Cost Total Crash
Increase cost
Normal Operation
Program completion Time, Weeks

Afrizal N
47
Project Finish Constraint
Required
Completion Date
Project Start Date

Projected Lateness
Negative Slack
(a)
(b)
ET1
ET1
ET2
ET3
ET4
ET5
ET2 ET3
ET4
ET5
ET6
ET6
ET7
ET7
ET8
Expected
Completion
ET8
Expected
Completion
(c)
ET1 ET2 ET3 ET4
ET5
ET6
ET7
ET8
Afrizal N
Expected
Completion
Contingency
Positive Slack
48
Resources Leveling Heuristic

Implement this method to the activities that has Slack/Positive Float
Resource Leveling generally extend the completion date of project.
Also called as
- Resource Based Method ; optimizing project team member or
Resources constrained scheduling where we have the constraint is
limitation on the quantity of resource available.
the
Reverse Resource Allocation Scheduling

Resource be scheduled in reverse from ending date
Critical Chain
A technique that modifies the project schedule to account for limited
resources.
Afrizal N
49
Resources Leveling Heuristic

SCHEDULE DEVELOPMENT
Simple Exercise :
Activity A
A required 10 man, B required 20 man, the

availability is 25 man, WP = 30
Duration= 5
11
What should you do?

a.
11
Activity C
Assign 10 to A and 15 to B
1
b.
c.
Assign all to A and put them all to B
d.
E
Activity B
10
10
Activity B
10
30
15
Aktivity A
11
25
Duration=15
11
CP is B-C
This is a sample of resource
leveling
Aktivity B
10
25
Aktivity C
15
Duration=10
1
16
The Answer is B,
Activity C
1
Duration=15
Duration=10
Duration= 5
L
10
5
Activity A
25
15
Afrizal N
50
Project Schedule
Basic Knowledge
Type of project schedule format :

1.
Project Network Diagram : PDM and ADM

Usually show both project logic and project Critical
Path
2.
Bart Charts
3.
Milestone Charts
Milestone : a significant event in the project, usually
completion of a major deliverables or activity with
zero duration
4.
Time Scale Networks Diagram

Usually show project logic, activity duration &
Schedule information.
Afrizal N
51
Activity Float
5
10
12
L=7
(Basic Knowledge)
21
25
8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27
Independence Float
X
L=7
X
Free Float
L=7
SPAi
SPLi
SPA5
SPL5
Total Float
Afrizal N
SPAj
SPLj
SPA9
SPL9
52
OUTPUTS
.1. Project schedule (6.5.3.1 p.
149)
Project schedule network diagrams
Bar charts
Milestone charts
.2. Schedule model data (6.5.3.2 p.
151)
.3. Schedule baseline (6.5.3.3 p.
151)
.4. Resource requirement
(updates)
(6.5.3.4 p. 151)
5. Activity attributes (updates)
(6.5.3.5 p. 151)
Outputs
Outputs
.1.
Project
schedule
.1. Project schedule
.2.
.2.Schedule
Schedulemodel
modeldata
data
.3.
Schedule
baseline
.4.
.4.Resource
Resourcerequirement
requirement
(updates)
(updates)
.5.
Activity
.5. Activityattributes
attributes(updates)
(updates)
.6.
Project
calendars
(updates)
.7.
.7.Requested
Requestedchanges
changes
.8.
Project
management
plan
(updates)
(updates)
. . Schedule
Schedulemanagement
managementplan
plan
(updates)
(updates)

(6.5.3.6 p. 152)
(6.5.3.7 p. 152)
8. Project management plan
(updates)
. Schedule management plan Afrizal N
(updates)
53
Bar Chart (Basic Knowledge)
Bar Chart = Gantt Charts

Show tasks relative to time (activity start and end dates), expected
duration, usually not show dependencies.
Relatively easy to read start/finish date and view progress
Most proper for the Management Afrizal N
54
PERT Chart
(Basic Knowledge)
Program Evaluation and Review Technique
Afrizal N
55
Milestone Charts
DATA
DATE
EVENT
JAN
Basic Knowledge
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
Contract Award
Specification Review
Design Review
Value Engineering
Site Preparation
Quality Planning
Afrizal N
56
Time Scale Network Diagram

= Blend of project network diagram and bar chart.
A
10
10
11
12
11
13
12
14
Time
Afrizal N
57
Arrow Diagram
(Basic Knowledge)
D
2
13
13
10
23
23
23
23
F
C
23
23
32
32
36
36
11
Identified CPM (Critical Path Method)
Afrizal N
58
6. 6. SCHEDULE CONTROL
INPUTS
Perhatian
dengan :
Progress schedule.
Faktor yang mempengaruhi timbulnya
perubahan schedule.
Inputs
Inputs: :
.1.
.1.Schedule
Schedulemanagement
managementplan
plan
.2.
Schedule
baseline
.3.
.3.Performance
Performancereports
reports
.4.
Approved
changes
.4. Approved changesrequest
request
Adanya perubahan pada schedule proyek

Mengelola perubahan yang terjadi saat ini.
.1. Schedule management plan
(6.6.1.1 p. 153)
.3. Performance reports (6.6.1.3 p.
(4.3) berisi Schedule management plan
153)
(Chapter 6 ) bagaimana project
(10.3.3.1) menyediakan informasi pada
schedule akan dikelola dan
kinerja schedule, kesesuaian terhadap
dikendalikan
.2. Schedule baseline (6.6.1.2 p.
rencana,
153)
(6.5.3.1) project schedule mengontrol
.4. Approved changes request
approved project schedule. (6.5.3.3)
(6.6.1.4 p. 153)
schedule baseline komponen project
Hanya approved change request
management plan (4.3).
(4.4.1.4) yang telah diproses
Menyediakan dasar pengukuran dan
sebelumnya melalui proses Integrated
laporan kinerja schedule sebagai
Change Control (4.6) digunakan untuk
bagian dari kinerja pengukuran
mengupdate project schedule
baseline.
baseline.
Afrizal N
59
TECHNIQUES
.1. Progress reporting (6.6.2.1 p.
153)
.2. Schedule change control system

(6.6.2.2 p. 153)
.3. Performance measurement
(6.6.2.3 p. 154)
TOOLS &
Tools
Tools&&Techniques
Techniques
.1.
Progress
reporting
.1. Progress reporting
.2.
.2.Schedule
Schedulechange
changecontrol
control
system
system
.3.
.3.Performance
Performancemeasurement
measurement
.4.
Project
management
.4. Project managementsoftware
software
.5.
Variance
analysis
.5. Variance analysis
.6.
.6.Schedule
Schedulecomparison
comparisonbar
bar
chart
chart
.4. Project management software

(6.6.2.4 p. 154)
.5. Variance analysis (6.6.2.5 p.
154)
.6. Schedule comparison bar chart
(6.6.2.6 p. 154)
Afrizal N
60
Variance Analysis (Basic Knowledge)
Variance
report
Delay ?
No
Forecasting
Yes
Corrective
Action
Afrizal N
61
Corrective Action
Any delay
(Basic Knowledge)
Propose
Alternatives
Determine
Corrective
Action To be
Taken
Issued Notice
of Corrective
Action to the
Parties
Involved
Afrizal N
Re planning
62
OUTPUTS
.1. Schedule model data (updates)
(6.6.3.1 p. 154)
Stakeholder terkait memberikan
catatan yang berarti didalam
mengupdate informasi pada project
schedule model .
.2. Schedule baseline (updates)
(6.6.3.2 p. 155)
Revisi perubahan schedule stat date
and finish date dalam approved
schedule baseline.
(6.6.3.3 p. 155)
Perhitungan (SV) dan (SPI) mempunyai
nilai terhadap komponen.WBS.
.4. Request changes (6.6.3.4 p.
155)
Schedule variance analysis, review
progress report, hasil pengukuran
kinerja, modifikasi project schedule
model dapat menghasilkan Requested
Afrizal N
changes. (4.4.3.2)
Outputs
Outputs
.1.
Schedule
.1. Schedulemodel
modeldata
data
(updates)
(updates)
.2.
Schedule
.2. Schedulebaseline
baseline(updates)
(updates)
.3.
Performance
measurements
.4.
.4.Request
Requestchanges
changes
.5.
Recommended
.5. Recommendedcorrective
corrective
actions
actions
.6.
Organizational
process
assets
(updates)
assets (updates)
.7.
Activity
.7. Activitylist
list(updates)
(updates)
.8.
Activity
attributes
.8. Activity attributes(updates)
(updates)
.9.
Project
management
plan
(updates)
(updates)
63
OUTPUTS
.5. Recommended corrective actions
(6.6.3.5 p. 155)
(updates)
(6.6.3.6 p. 155)
.7. Activity list (updates)
(6.6.3.7 p. 156)
.8. Activity attributes (updates)
(6.6.3.8 p. 156)
Outputs
Outputs
.1.
Schedule
.1. Schedulemodel
modeldata
data
(updates)
(updates)
.2.
Schedule
.2. Schedulebaseline
baseline(updates)
(updates)
.3.
Performance
measurements
.4.
.4.Request
Requestchanges
changes
.5.
Recommended
.5. Recommendedcorrective
corrective
actions
actions
.6.
Organizational
process
assets
(updates)
assets (updates)
.7.
Activity
.7. Activitylist
list(updates)
(updates)
.8.
Activity
attributes
.8. Activity attributes(updates)
(updates)
.9.
Project
management
plan
(updates)
(updates)

(updates)
(6.6.3.9 p. 156)
Afrizal N
64
Schedule Control Flow (Basic Knowledge)

Progress Monitoring
Schedule Assessment
Variance Analysis
Forecasting
Corective Action
Replanning
Afrizal N
65
Control Management Aspect
Plan the Future :

Technical implication
Control of consultant
Control of pre project activity
Performance appraisal
Implementation of control system
Understand and apply schedule control requirement :
Afrizal N
66
Schedule Control Requirement

1. Target dates & milestone
2. Scope control
3. Appraisal of schedule control capability
4. Baseline schedule
5. Manpower loading
6. Periodical review
7. Interface key dates
8. Report and analysis schedule status
9. Trend analysis (Rescheduling)
Afrizal N
67
Appraisal of Schedule Control Capability

Schedule Control Written Procedures
Organizing & Staffing
Use of specialist
Reference of experience
Methodology
Bar chart
CPM Network
Reporting Format and Procedures
Afrizal N
68
Schedule Assessment (Basic Knowledge)

Impact
Completion
Date
Update
Progress
Review Critical
& Next Critical
Activities
Variance
Analysis
Prepare Report
Schedule
Variance
report
Afrizal N
69
Progress Monitoring (Basic Knowledge)

Progress
Progress
Progress
Progress
Agregate
Progress
No
Approve
Afrizal N
Yes
Schedule
Assessment
70
How to Improve Progress (Basic Knowledge)

Increase Productivity
Increase Manpower
Work Overtime
Reduce the Scope of Work whenever possible
Subcontracting part of the work
Fast-Tracking
Afrizal N
71
Earned Value Analysis (Basic Knowledge)
Cost
JutaIDR
Projected Budget Completed
2000
100
1800
90
1600
80
1400
70
1200
60
1000
50
800
40
600
30
400
20
200
10
Cost Overrun
Actual Cost (AC)
(ACWP)
Projected Time Completed
Planned Cost (PV)

(BCWS)
Schedule Overrun
Work Performed (EV)

(BCWP)
3
1
6
2
12
3
25
4
35
5
52
6
75
7
Data Date
85
8
95
9
98
10
99
11
100
12
%
13
Month
Afrizal N
Earned Value
Analysis
72
PERENCANAAN WAKTU
PROYEK
Afrizal Nursin (0815 8611 3660)
Thank you
Afrizal N
73

Perencanaan Waktu Proyek

Uploaded by

Document Information

Original Title

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

Perencanaan Waktu Proyek

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

PT.

PERUSAHAAN LISTRIK NEGARA (Persero)

PERENCANAAN WAKTU PROYEK

The Project Management

10. Project Communications Management

11. Project Risk 12. Project ProcureManagement

PMBOK PMI ed 2004

Project Time Management

6.1 Activity Definition

PROJECT TIME MANAGEMENT

6.4 Activity Duration

(PMBOK Guide p. 125)

6.2 Activity Sequencing

6.5 Schedule Development

6.6 Schedule Control

Project Time Management Process Flow Diagram

Project Scope Statement

Approved Changes Requests

Project Schedule Network Diagram

Direct & Manage

Activity Cost Estimates

Scope Management Plan

Activity List, Activity, Attributes.

Project Management Plan

Work Performance Information

Project Management Plan (updates)

5. WBS Dictionary (6.1.1.5 p.128)

WORK PACKAGE FROM ALL

OTHERS ASSIGNED TO A SINGLE FUNCTIONAL GROUP.

END DATES THAT ARE

REPRESENTATIVE OF PHYSICAL ACCOMPLISHMENT

PERIODS OF TIME TO MINIMIZE THE WORK-IN- PROCESS EFFORT.

WBS - Decomposition (Basic Knowledge)

Check the proposed WBS satisfied both functional and project

WBS Numbering System

Describe when time is available for work to be performed

Define time units, length of work week, non working period :

All activities must be assigned a calendar

A typical project requires several calendars to represent different work

.4. Requested Changes (6.1.3.4

Activity List (Basic Knowledge)

.3. Activity atributes (6.2.1.3

Method Activity Sequencing

AON : Activity On Node

Arrow diagramming method (ADM)

AOA : Activity On Arrow

Method Activity Sequencing

: Artemis (7) Project management.

Primavera System Inc. : Primavera Project Planner (P3, 3.1)

: Microsoft Project (2002)

With Lead = - Lag

3. Activity attributes (updates)

PMBOK Guide page 130

6. 3. ACTIVITY RESOURCE ESTIMATING

.3. Activity list

6. 3. ACTIVITY RESOURCE ESTIMATING TOOLS &

.1. Expert judgment

6. 3. ACTIVITY RESOURCE ESTIMATING

Guide page 136

.5. Requested changes

6. 4. ACTIVITY DURATION ESTIMATING

.4. Activity list

6. 4. ACTIVITY DURATION ESTIMATING