Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Presented by:
Piyush Agarwal
2015MB22
ABSTRACT
Completing a project on time and within budget
is not an easy task. The project scheduling
phase plays a central role in predicting both the
time and cost aspects of a project. More
precisely, it determines a timetable in order to
be able to predict the expected time and cost
of each individual activity.
Introduction
What is the expected project finish date?
How can precedence relations between
activities be modeled in a network?
What are the expected activity start and
finish times?
What is the effect of variability in activity
time estimates on the project duration?
Network Analysis
To construct a complete and detailed WBS, the work packages of a
WBS need to be further subdivided into activities.
It might improve the level of detail and accuracy of cost, duration and
resource estimates which serve as inputs for the construction of a
project network and scheduling phase.
The definition phase, which determines the list of activities, the
precedence relations, possible resource requirements and the major
milestones of the project, is different from the scheduling phase in the
level of detail and the timing of project activities.
The scheduling phase aims at the determination of start and finish
times of each activity of the project, and consequently, determines the
milestones in detail. This can only be done after the construction of the
network in the definition phase.
Incorporating these technological links between any pair of activities is
a first step in the construction of the project network. A network
consists of nodes and arcs and incorporates all the activities and their
technological precedence relations. A network can be seen as a graph
G(N, A) where the set N is used to denote the set of nodes and A to
Project Network
Activity
A task or a certain amount of work required in the project
Requires time to complete
Represented by an arrow
Dummy Activity
Indicates only precedence relationships
Does not require any time of effort
Project Network
Event
Signals the beginning or ending of an activity
Designates a point in time
Represented by a circle (node)
Network
Shows the sequential relationships among activities
using nodes and arrows
Activity-on-node (AON)
nodes represent activities, and arrows show precedence
relationships
Activity-on-arrow (AOA)
arrows represent activities and nodes are events for points in
time
10
One type is the activity-on-arc (AOA) project network, where each activity is
represented by an arc. A node is used to separate an activity (an outgoing arc)
from each of its immediate predecessors (an incoming arc). The sequencing of
the arcs thereby shows the precedence relationships between the activities.
The second type is the activity-on-node (AON) project network, where each
activity is represented by a node. The arcs then are used just to show the
precedence relationships between the activities. In particular, the node for each
activity with immediate predecessors has an arc coming in from each of these
predecessors.
Lay
foundation
3
Design house
and obtain
financing
3
2
Dummy
0
1
Order and
receive
materials
4
Select
paint
Build
house
3
1
Finish
work
Select
carpet
Build house
4
3
2
2
Start
Finish work
7
1
1
3
3
1
Order and receive
materials
5
1
Select paint
6
1
Select carpet
12
B
A
B
A
D
B
Dummy
C
My word.....
My purpose here is to give a few ideas about PERT , CPM
& other project management tools for entrepreneurs .
These are introductory ideas. Be an Entrepreneur, change
the society, change the world. Go with positive spirit.
Please pass this presentation to all those who might need
it. Let us spread knowledge as widely as possible. I
welcome your suggestions. I also request you to help me in
spreading social entrepreneurship across the globe for
which I need support of you people not of any VIP. With
your help, I can spread the ideas for which we stand....
History of CPM/PERT
Critical Path Method (CPM)
E I Du Pont de Nemours & Co. (1957) for
construction of new chemical plant and
maintenance shut-down
Deterministic task times
Activity-on-node network construction
Repetitive nature of jobs
What is CPM ?
Critical Path Method = here we try to identify the
critical path for completion of a project. Cricial =
very important
When we are implementing a project, we are
doing a series of activities, which are called
project. There are many ways to do a project. In
CPM, we try to pick up the path which consists of
all the activities which cannot be delayed. This
path requires greater attention.
What is SLACK?
What is PERT ?
Network example
Illustration of network analysis of a minor redesign of a product and
its associated packaging.
The key question is: How long will it take to complete this project ?
darla/smbs/vit
CPM calculation
Path
A connected sequence of activities leading from the
starting event to the ending event
Critical Path
The longest path (time); determines the project
duration
Critical Activities
All of the activities that make up the critical path
Forward Pass
Backward Pass
CPM analysis
CPM Example:
CPM Network
f,f, 15
15
h,
h, 99
g,
g, 17
17
a,
a, 66
i,i, 66
b,
b, 88
d,
d, 13
13
c,
c, 55
e,
e, 99
j,j, 12
12
CPM Example
ES and EF Times
f,f, 15
15
h,
h, 99
g,
g, 17
17
a,
a, 66
0 6
i,i, 66
b,
b, 88
0 8
d,
d, 13
13
c,
c, 55
0 5
e,
e, 99
j,j, 12
12
CPM Example
ES and EF Times
f,f, 15
15
6 21
h,
h, 99
g,
g, 17
17
a,
a, 66
6 23
0 6
i,i, 66
b,
b, 88
0 8
c,
c, 55
0 5
d,
d, 13
13
8 21
e,
e, 99
5 14
j,j, 12
12
CPM Example
ES and EF Times
f,f, 15
15
6 21
h,
h, 99
g,
g, 17
17
a,
a, 66
6 23
0 6
23 29
b,
b, 88
0 8
c,
c, 55
0 5
21 30
i,i, 66
d,
d, 13
13
8 21
e,
e, 99
5 14
j,j, 12
12
21 33
Projects EF = 33
CPM Example
f,f, 15
15
LS and LF Times
6 21
a,
a, 66
h,
h, 99
21 30
24 33
g,
g, 17
17
6 23
0 6
i,i, 66
23 29
27 33
b,
b, 88
0 8
d,
d, 13
13
8 21
c,
c, 55
0 5
e,
e, 99
5 14
j,j, 12
12
21 33
21 33
CPM
CPM Example
Example
LS and LF Times
f,f, 15
15
6 21
18 24
a,
a, 66
h,
h, 99
21 30
24 33
g,
g, 17
17
6 23
10 27
0 6
4 10
b,
b, 88
0 8
0 8
c,
c, 55
0 5
7 12
d,
d, 13
13
8 21
8 21
e,
e, 99
5 14
12 21
i,i, 66
23 29
27 33
j,j, 12
12
21 33
21 33
CPM
CPM Example
Example
Float
f,f, 15
15
3 6 21
9 24
a,
a, 66
h,
h, 99
g,
g, 17
17
4 6 23
10 27
3 0 6
3 9
b,
b, 88
0 0 8
0 8
c,
c, 55
7 0 5
7 12
d,
d, 13
13
0 8 21
8 21
e,
e, 99
7 5 14
12 21
i,i, 66
3 21 30
24 33
4 23 29
27 33
j,j, 12
12
0 21 33
21 33
CPM Example
Critical Path
f,f, 15
15
h,
h, 99
g,
g, 17
17
a,
a, 66
i,i, 66
b,
b, 88
d,
d, 13
13
c,
c, 55
e,
e, 99
j,j, 12
12
PERT
PERT is based on the assumption that an activitys
duration follows a probability distribution instead of
being a single value
Three time estimates are required to compute the
parameters of an activitys duration distribution:
pessimistic time (tp ) - the time the activity would
take if things did not go well
most likely time (tm ) - the consensus best estimate
of the activitys duration
optimistic time (to ) - the time the activity would
take if things did go well
tp + 4 tm + to
Variance: Vt = =
2
darla/smbs/vit
tp - to
6
PERT analysis
Draw the network.
Analyze the paths through the network and find the
critical path.
The length of the critical path is the mean of the
project duration probability distribution which is
assumed to be normal
The standard deviation of the project duration
probability distribution is computed by adding the
variances of the critical activities (all of the activities
that make up the critical path) and taking the
square root of that sum
Probability computations can now be made using
the normal distribution table.
Probability computation
Determine probability that project is completed within specified
time
Z=
x-
= tp
Time
PERT Example
Immed. Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic
Activity Predec. Time (Hr.) Time (Hr.)
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
K
--A
A
A
B,C
B,C
E,F
E,F
D,H
G,I
4
1
3
4
0.5
3
1
5
2
2.5
3
6
4.5
3
5
1
4
1.5
6
5
2.75
5
Time (Hr.)
8
5
3
6
1.5
5
5
7
8
4.5
7
PERT Example
PERT Network
D
C
B
F
G
PERT Example
Activity
Expected Time
6
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
K
Variance
4/9
4
3
5
1
4
2
6
5
3
5
4/9
0
1/9
1/36
1/9
4/9
1/9
1
1/9
4/9
PERT Example
Activity
A
ES
EF
LS
0
B
C
0
6
4
9
D
E
F
6
6
9
11
7
13
9
H
I
J
K
11
13
13
19
18
Slack
0 *critical
5
9
6
9
15
12
20
13
9
16
19
18
22
23
LF
18
9
6
13
18
14
13
20
0
7
20
18
23
23
5
0
1
0*
1
0*
PERT Example
Vpath = VA + VC + VF + VI + VK
= 4/9 + 0 + 1/9 + 1 + 4/9
= 2
path = 1.414
z = (24 - 23)/(24-23)/1.414 = .71
From the Standard Normal Distribution table:
P(z < .71) = .5 + .2612 = .7612
Project Crashing
Crashing
reducing project time by expending additional
resources
Crash time
an amount of time an activity is reduced
Crash cost
cost of reducing activity time
Goal
reduce project duration at minimum cost
Activity cost
Activity crashing
Crash
cost
Crashing activity
Slope = crash cost per unit time
Normal Activity
Normal
cost
Normal
time
Crash
time
Activity time
Time-Cost Relationship
Time-Cost Tradeoff
cost
Direct cost
time
2
8
12
7
4
12
3
4
5
4
6
4
12
8
4
12
4
4
4
3000
2000
4000
50000
500
500
1500
75000
7
5
3
9
1
1
3
5000
3500
7000
71000
1100
1100
22000
110700
5
3
1
3
3
3
1
400
500
3000
7000
200
200
7000
R500
R7000
2
8
12
Project duration = 36
R700
7
4
12
R400
3
4
To..
6
4
5
4
R3000
From..
R200
R200
R500
R7000
2
8
12
R700
7
4
Project
duration = 31
Additional cost
= R2000
R400
3
4
R3000
5
4
R200
6
4
R200
Benefits of CPM/PERT
Limitations to CPM/PERT
Clearly defined, independent and stable activities
Specified precedence relationships
Over emphasis on critical paths
Deterministic CPM model
Activity time estimates are subjective and depend on
judgment
PERT assumes a beta distribution for these time estimates,
but the actual distribution may be different
PERT consistently underestimates the expected project
completion time due to alternate paths becoming critical
Computer Software
for Project Management
Microsoft Project (Microsoft Corp.)
MacProject (Claris Corp.)
PowerProject (ASTA Development Inc.)
Primavera Project Planner (Primavera)
Project Scheduler (Scitor Corp.)
Project Workbench (ABT Corp.)
Gantt Charts
The Gantt chart is named after its originator Henry Gantt and
displays a timetable for each activity of the project. Each activity
is shown as a block or bar and drawn to scale in time. The
timescale is usually drawn horizontally while the different
activities are displayed on the vertical axis.
This chart is used for scheduling and is often used in conjunction
with the project network to show the technological dependencies
between activities.
The bars represent the earliest start and finish times of each
activity of the example project. The gray lines following the
activity bars represent the activity slack, and hence, shifting
activities towards the end of these gray bars results in the
corresponding LSS. Activities without slack (i.e. activities 1, 3, 5,
10, 12, 13 and 14) belong to the critical path and need the
attention of the project manager.
Thank you