Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Study Flow
Evaluate
effectiveness,
plausibility, risk
The Scenarios
ESCALATION: A long war involving attack and counter attack through
biological and nuclear saber rattling. The poppy fields of Afghanistan are
attacked with Agent Orange to dry up a principal source of terrorist income.
But it is a long war. (Gordon)
COUNTER MINDSET: Political Islamists saw secular Western capitalism as
reducing everything to a commodity, reinforcing individualism and greed, and
arrogantly running financial and political rules of the world to American's
benefit. They believed that Islam's mission was now to set the world right. The
strategies followed by the international community addressed this mindset.
Television, radio, software, magazine, music materials were designed to
reinforce the idea that this was a war against terrorism and promoted the
restoration of the right and proper image of Islam. A "Global Partnership for
Development" gave reason for people not to be sympathetic with terrorists. In
short, this was an "intellectual arms race" (Glenn)
Scoring
For effectiveness:
5 = Will essentially solve the issue
4 = Will be very effective
3 = Will help address the issue
2 = Will have little effect
1 = Will make the situation worse
For plausibility:
5 = Extremely plausible; has already happened or is almost certain
4 = Very plausible
3 = Maybe
2 = Implausible
1 = Almost impossible
For downside risk:
5 = Risk free
4 = Some possible minor risks
3 = No worse risks than many others
2 = A risky venture
1 = Disastrous possibilities
3.5
Effectiveness
3
2.5
2
0
3
Risk
Political Actions
Effect
Create, through the UN, a set of rules of storage, control, and movement
of nuclear, chemical, and biological stocks; as well as systems of
effective inspection and monitoring.
3.7
Plaus
Risk
3.4
3.5
3.7
3.4
3.7
Develop strategies to counter organized crime and its links with terrorism.
3.7
3.4
3.6
3.7
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.1
4.0
3.6
3.0
3.5
3.5
3.4
3.8
Establish policies that defend justice on a global scale and improve the
system of international justice and law.
3.5
3.2
3.8
3.5
3.3
4.1
3.5
3.2
3.3
Plaus
Risk
3.6
3.2
3.8
Destroy all stockpiles of smallpox and other viruses that can be used for
3.5
bioweapons.
3.1
3.7
3.3
3.8
3.4
3.5
3.3
3.8
3.5
3.2
3.2
3.3
3.9
3.3
3.5
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.1
3.1
Financial, Humanitarian,
Education, and Media Actions
Commit to long-term "Global Partnership for Development" to achieve
minimal standards of health, education, services and housing.
Effect
Plaus
Risk
4.0
3.3
4.3
3.8
3.7
3.4
3.7
3.5
3.5
3.7
3.5
4.0
3.6
3.5
3.5
3.6
3.2
4.2
Promote subjects on TV, movies and in print media that portray other
cultures fairly and in a favorable light.
3.6
3.5
4.2
Maintain global dialogues over decades on issues that inflame terrorists and
link the results into school curricula.
3.4
3.2
3.8
Use media to make clear that Islam is not the enemy of the international
community.
3.4
3.7
4.0
3.4
3.1
3.9
Defensive Moves
Financial: All possible action should be takenFinancial: All possible action should be takenGuard the system of international funds
to impede the financial capabilities of
to impede the financial capabilities of USA transfer
terrorist organizations.
Political: Continue to make clear that Islam isPolitical: Continue to make clear that Islam isIn our information campaign, anticipate the
not the enemy of the international
not the enemy of the international
terrorist counter campaign.
community.
community.
Political: Follow policies that establish the USPolitical: Follow policies that establish Islam aIn our information campaign, anticipate the
a defender of justice on a global scale and defender of spiritualism on a global scale
terrorist counter campaign.
acted for "liberty and justice for all"
and acted for "spiritual liberty and justice for
all"
Political: Use scenarios and other methods ofPolitical: Use spiritual vision, scenarios and Understand the spiritual visions
futures research to help devise peace
other methods of futures research to help
strategies.
devise strategies.
Military Perform an initial military strike
augmented with a series of Ranger and
Special Forces incursions.
Be prepared
Crime: Establish new anti money laundering Crime: Establish new money laundering
strategies
strategies
Defense: Put in place corporate emergency Defense: Put in place network emergency
plans.
plans.
Respondent Comments
Action 27: Consider means to pressure Israel into reducing its military severity.
The risk here is that there is no comparable pressure on the Palestinians, Syrians and Saudis
to stop training, logistical support of rejectionist groups, e.g. Hamas, or to reverse their
support for anti-Western and anti-Semitic propaganda. The message that the rejectionist
groups would receive is that terrorism against civilian targets works.
Action 28: End US policies of unilateralism (e.g. acting to abrogate the weapons in
space treaty, Kyoto disagreements, etc.)
Many of us would agree that Bush has gone a bit too far in the past few months towards
unilateralism, but would not want to go to the opposite extreme depicted here. For
example -- if the best analysis available to the United States tells us that the Kyoto treaty,
however popular, actually harms the global environment more than it helps it, the US has
a perfect right and even a duty to back out and try to do something better. Yes, it could be
trying a lot harder to do better, but it has a right and a duty to make its own evaluation of
what it chooses to commit to.