Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Probability sample
Non probability sample
Statistical inference
Sampling error
Probability sample
Goal:
inference.ppt - Aki Ta
Simple Random
Sample
Population
inference.ppt - Aki Ta
Systematic
inference.ppt - Aki Ta
Stratified
Population
18-29
Sample
Proportional
allocation
30-49
65+
50-64
Even allocation
Compare groups
inference.ppt - Aki Ta
Sample
Cluster
Divide population into the clusters
(schools, districts,)
Choose randomly some of the
clusters
Draw sample from the chosen
clusters using appropriate sampling
method (or investigate chosen
groups in whole)
Sample
inference.ppt - Aki Ta
inference.ppt - Aki Ta
Statistical inference
Statistical
Precondition
inference.ppt - Aki Ta
Sampling Error
Sample 1
mean 40,5
Population
Sample 2
mean 40,3
mean 40,8
Sample 3
mean 41,4
Due to chance
inference.ppt - Aki Ta
Sampling distributions
Mean
Normal distribution
T-distribution
Proportion
Normal distribution
10
Sampling distribution
Most
11
Denotations
, ,
Sample
x, s, p
Parameters
Estimates for
parameters
inference.ppt - Aki Ta
12
Sampling Distribution
of
Mean
1
x1
x2
x3
)
n
Term
sample means).
inference.ppt - Aki Ta
13
N ( ,
)
n
1,96
x 1,96
n
n
inference.ppt - Aki Ta
14
x 1,96
n
n
inference.ppt - Aki Ta
15
unknown
x1
x2
x3
inference.ppt - Aki Ta
s
n
16
s
n
x t critical
s
n
inference.ppt - Aki Ta
17
T-distribution
18
p1
p3
p (1 p )
n
19
p (1 p )
p (1 p )
p 1,96
n
n
inference.ppt - Aki Ta
20
Parameter Estimation
21
Parameter estimation
Objective
inference.ppt - Aki Ta
22
Error margin
A value
inference.ppt - Aki Ta
23
1,96
n
x 1,96
x 1,96
n
inference.ppt - Aki Ta
24
s
n
We
s
n
x t critical
s
n
inference.ppt - Aki Ta
25
Confidence level
inference.ppt - Aki Ta
26
1,96
p (1 p)
n
We
p (1 p )
p (1 p )
p 1,96
n
n
inference.ppt - Aki Ta
27
Hypothesis testing
Null hypothesis
Alternative hypothesis
2-tailed or 1 tailed
P-value
28
Hypothesis 1
Hypothesis is a belief
concerning a parameter
Parameter may be
population mean,
proportion, correlation
coefficient,...
inference.ppt - Aki Ta
29
Hypothesis 2
Null
30
Hypothesis examples
H0: Mean height of males equals 174.
H1: Mean height is bigger than 174.
H0: Half of the population is in favour of nuclear power plant.
H1: More than half of the population is in favour of nuclear power plant.
H0: The amount of overtime work is equal for males and females.
H1: The amount of overtime work is not equal for males and females.
H0: There is no correlation between interest rate and gold price.
H1: There is correlation between interest rate and gold price.
inference.ppt - Aki Ta
31
2-tailed Test
Use 2-tailed if there is no
reason for 1-tailed.
In 2-tailed test deviations
(from the null hypothesis) to
the both directions are
interesting.
Alternative hypothesis takes
the form different than.
inference.ppt - Aki Ta
32
1-tailed Test
In 1-tailed test we know
beforehand that only
deviations to one direction
are possible or interesting.
Alternative hypothesis
takes the form less than
or greater than.
inference.ppt - Aki Ta
33
Population
Reject
Rejectnull
null
hypothesis!
hypothesis!Sample
Sample
mean
meanisisonly
only45!
45!
Random sample
Mean
age = 45
inference.ppt - Aki Ta
34
35
Significance Level
When
inference.ppt - Aki Ta
36
P-value
We
37
inference.ppt - Aki Ta
38
Testing mean
Null
Alternative
from x0
Alternative
x0
Alternative
than x0
inference.ppt - Aki Ta
39
Calculate
40
x
s
n
41
Testing Proportion
In
Null
Alternative
Alternative
Alternative
42
Testing proportion
p-value
Calculate
p
p(1 p )
n
Calculate
43
inference.ppt - Aki Ta
44
45
inference.ppt - Aki Ta
46
47
tools
As an output you get among other things p-value
for 1-tailed test
You have to multiply p-value by two to get p-value
for 2-tailed test
If 2-tailed p-value is less than 0,05 (5%) then you
should reject H0 and use t-test for unequal
variances
inference.ppt - Aki Ta
48
inference.ppt - Aki Ta
49
http://myy.helia.fi/~taaak/q/inference6.htm
See SPSS instructions
http://myy.helia.fi/~taaak/r/spinference6.htm
inference.ppt - Aki Ta
50
Testing correlation
Null
51
Testing correlation
p-value
See
http://myy.helia.fi/~taaak/q/inference5.htm
See SPSS instructions
http://myy.helia.fi/~taaak/r/spinference5.htm
inference.ppt - Aki Ta
52