AGRICULTURE AND

CLIMATE CHANGE

BY:
SHAILESH TELANG
M.Sc- Environment Management
FOREST RESEARCH INSTITUTE
UNIVERSITY,Dehradun
1

Agriculture represents a core part of the Indian economy and

provides food and livelihood activities to much of the Indian
population. While the magnitude of impact varies greatly by
region, climate change is expected to impact on agricultural
productivity and shifting crop patterns. The policy implications
are wide-reaching, as changes in agriculture could affect food
security, trade policy, livelihood activities and water
conservation issues, impacting large portions of the population .

EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON

AGRICULTURE
Climate change may have beneficial as well as detrimental
consequences for agriculture.
A warming climate and decreasing soil moisture can also result
in increasing need for irrigation.
Benefits to agriculture might be offset by an increased likelihood
of heat waves, drought, severe thunderstorms and tornadoes.
With the virtually certain likelihood of warmer and more frequent
hot days and nights, there are projected to be increased insect
outbreaks impacting agriculture, forestry and ecosystems. (IPCC
)

PREDICTED CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON

AGRICULTURE
CLIMATE CHANGE

Direct effect on crop

growth
Physiology
Morphology

Indirect effects
Soil Fertility
Irrigation
availability
Pest
Flood & droughts

Socio economic
Policy
Trade
Farmers response

Human interventions
Adaptation strategies
Mitigation strategies

Agricultural Production &

vulnerability

Impacts on Indian Agriculture Literature

Review
Sinha and Swaminathan (1991) showed that an increase of 2 oC in
temperature could decrease the rice yield by about 0.75 ton/ha in the
high yield areas; and a 0.5oC increase in winter temperature would
reduce wheat yield by 0.45 ton/ha.
Saseendran et al. (2000) showed that for every one degree rise in
temperature the decline in rice yield would be about 6%.

Aggarwal et al. (2002) on basis of recent climate change scenarios

estimated impacts on wheat and other cereal crops.

INDIA AND AGRICULTURE

Population
GDP from Agriculture

: 1.14 Billion
: 18.6 % (2005)

Map of India.com)
Area under Agriculture

(Source:

: 37.8% (124.14 mha)

(Source: npcm team)

Population dependent on Agriculture : 66%

(Source: EconomyWatch.com)

Average farm size:

: 1 to5 ha

INDIAN AGRICULTURE- STRENGTHS

AND CHALLENGES
Strong strides made in increasing the
production in the
past 50 years,
mainly due to adoption of HYVs and
other technological developments
Subsistence agriculture with small land
holdings
Wide
variation
in
regional
productivities
Majority still depend on rain-fed
agriculture
Frequently
affected
by
extreme
weather events such as droughts and
cyclones
Significant proportion of population

The Indian Agricultural Research Institute (IARI) examined the vulnerability

of agricultural production to climate change, with the objective of
determining differences in climate change impacts on agriculture by region
and by crop.

The study found that increases in temperature (by about 2C) reduced
potential grain yields in most places.

Reductions in yields as a result of climate change are predicted to be more

pronounced for rain fed crops (as opposed to irrigated crops)and under
limited water supply situations because there are no coping mechanisms
for rainfall variability.

Climate change is also predicted to lead to boundary changes in areas

suitable for growing certain crops. These are shown for wheat in Figure.

BOUNDARY CHANGES FOR PRODUCTIVITY OF

IRRIGATED WHEAT

Source: IARI.
10

Potential Impact of Climate Change

on Wheat Production in India
80

75

70
Production , Mtons
65

60

55

50

45

40
2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

Year

11

Effect of Climate change

on Soybean
According to studies, soybean yields could go up by as
much as 50 per cent if the concentration of carbon
dioxide in the atmosphere doubles.
If this increase in carbon dioxide is accompanied by an
increase in temperature, as expected, then soybean
yields could actually decrease. If the maximum and
minimum temperatures go up by 1C and 1.5C
respectively, the gain in yield comes down to 35 per
cent.

Source: Centre for science

12 & Environment

Potential Impact of Climate Change

on Rice Production in India
Overall, temperature increases are predicted
to reduce rice yields. An increase of 2-4C is
predicted to result in a reduction in yields.
Although additional CO2 can benefit crops,
this effect was nullified by an increase of
temperature.

Source: IARI

13

How does agriculture

influence climate change?
The primary sources of greenhouse gases in agriculture are the
production of nitrogen based fertilizers; the combustion of fossil
fuels such as coal, gasoline, diesel fuel and natural gas; and
waste management. One of the biggest problems in industrialized
agriculture is the massive overuse of fertilizers. More than 50
percent of all fertilizer applied to the soil ends up in the
atmosphere or in local waterways.
The second biggest direct emitter in agriculture is animals. When
digesting fodder, animals produce and emit large amounts of
methane; a potent greenhouse gas.

14

 In 2005, agriculture accounted for 10 to 12 percent of total global

human caused emissions of greenhouse gases, according to the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007).
Agriculture also has a serious indirect effect on climate change.
Cutting down forests and other natural cover to provide
agricultural land for grazing, growing animal feed and other
crops, removes key carbon sinks plants and soils that absorb
carbon from the atmosphere and increases global warming.
20% reduction in the global area of forests during the last 140
years releasing about 120 GT C to the atmosphere.

15

Sources of agricultural greenhouse gases - Mt CO2

Source: Greenpeace

SOURCES OF DIRECT & INDIRECT AGRICULTURE GREENHOUSE GASES

Source:

JESSICA BELLARBY,BENTE FOEREID, ASTLEY HASTINGS AND PETE SMITH FROM

THE UNIVERSITY OF ABERDEEN

Agricultures role in
mitigating climate change
There are several adaptation measures that the agricultural sector
can undertake to cope with future climate change.
These include:
Changing planting dates;
Planting different varieties or crop species;
Development and promotion of alternative crops;
Developing new drought and heat-resistant varieties;
Improved crop residue and weed management;
More use of water harvesting techniques,
Better pest and disease control for crops;
Implementing new or improving existing irrigation systems
(Reducing water leakage, soil moisture conservation - mulching)

18

 Several farming practices and technologies can reduce greenhouse

gas emissions and prevent climate change by enhancing carbon
storage in soils; preserving existing soil carbon; and reducing carbon
dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide emissions.
Reducing use of fertilisers: By applying only the amount of fertiliser
that the crop needs, precisely and at the right time, a tremendous
amount of greenhouse gas releases can be prevented. At the same
time, it would also reduce other environmental disasters such as
dangerous algal blooms in our lakes and oceans worldwide.

19

 Protecting the soil: If we continue to treat our soil like dirt, one of the
most precious resources of humankind is under serious threat.
Industrial agriculture degrades the soil and leaches it of all its
nutrients, resulting in a soil that has one of the lowest carbon
contents. By increasing the carbon content through a variety of
measures such as cover crops, agricultural soils can be turned into
carbon sinks and can greatly reduce agricultures contribution to
climate change.

20

 Land restoration and land use changes: Modifications to grazing

practices, such as implementing rotational grazing and seasonal use
of rangelands. Converting marginal cropland to trees or grass
maximizes carbon storage.
Methane should be used: Methane can be used to fuel a variety of
on-farm applications, as well as to generate electricity.

21

WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS OF

THESE PREDICTIONS?
Changes in yield of certain crops can affect imports/exports,
depending on the crop (this is particularly relevant for cash crops).
Because impacts vary significantly according to whether crops are
rain fed or irrigated, water policy will need to consider the implications
for water demand of agricultural change due to climate change.
Policy-makers will also need to consider adaptive measures to cope
with changing agricultural patterns. Measures may include the
introduction of the use of alternative crops, changes to cropping
patterns, and promotion of water conservation and irrigation
techniques.

22

 Water policy: Because impacts vary significantly according to whether

crops are rain fed or irrigated, water policy will need to consider the
implications for water demand of agricultural change due to climate
change.
Changes to India's annual monsoon are expected to result in severe
droughts and intense flooding in parts of India. Scientists predict that
by the end of the century the country will experience a 3 to 5C
temperature increase and a 20% rise in all summer monsoon rainfall.
SOURCE: UK-India Education and Research Initiative (UKIERI)

In India agricultural production is often determined by the whims of

nature. The climate change is expected to result in higher
temperatures and rainfall. So naturally, the impacts of climate change
will be of far reaching consequence for India.

23

CONCLUSION
The climate change will have impact on agriculture, and
agriculture is the livelihood and most of the Indian population is
dependent on it. The country should set up a National Food
Security Board, to be headed by the Prime Minister, and establish
at least 50 huge modern storages to build stocks of food grains
to counter any emergency. He finally stressed the adoption of
alternative crops to suit different weather models, a strategy that
may help immensely in times of poor monsoon.

24

Thank you
25