Basic Probability

Sample Space
A set of outcomes such that exactly one
outcome occurs as the result of the
experiment
Sample space is also called Universe
Outcomes are also called sample points
There is more than one way to view an
experiment so an experiment may have
more than one sample spaces associated

Sample Space Examples

Experiment: Draw a card from a deck
Sample Space 1:

52 outcomes (1 for each card)

Sample Space 2:

2 outcomes (black and red)

Sample Space 3:

13 outcomes (2, 3, 4, J, Q , K A)

Sample Space 4:

2 outcomes (picture and non-picture)

Event
Any subset of a sample space is an
event
Any outcome
A collection of outcomes
The whole subspace
Null set

Event (Example)
Experiment:
Drawing a card from a deck of 52

Sample Space
52 Outcomes (1 for each card)

Possible Events:

A black
(includes 26 outcomes)
A 2
(includes 4
outcomes)
A picture
(includes 16
outcomes)
K of spades (includes 1
outcome)

Sample Space, Outcomes and

Event
Experiment
Rolling a dice

Outcomes
1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6

Event
A (greater than 4)

Probability
Mathematical representation of chance
of possible outcome of an experiment
There are two types of probability
problems
1. Experiments with a limited number of possible
outcomes are discrete probability problems
2. Experiments with infinitely uncountable
outcomes are continuous probability problems

Probability Space
Probabilities are numbers assigned to events
such that:
Each outcome is assigned a non-negative probability
The sum of all probabilities is 1
If A is an event and P(A) denotes the probability of A,
then:
P(A) = sum of probabilities of the outcomes in A

A Sample Space with an assignment of

probabilities to events is called Probability
Space

Probability Space

a (.3)
b (.1)
c (.1)

d (.2)
e (.1)

B
g (.1)
f (.1)

Fair Vs. Biased Trials

Impossible and Sure Events

If an event contains all points of the
sample space, it is called a sure event
and has a probability equal to 1
E.g. A card > 2

If an event contains no point of the

sample space, it is called an impossible
event and has a probability equal to 0
E.g. Red Spade

Complementary Events
Two events A and B are
complimentary events if together
they contain all the outcomes of a
sample space and no outcome in
common
P(A) + P(B) = 1
B=A, & A=B
P(A)=1-P(A)=P(B)

Counting Techniques

Counting Techniques
In discrete probability problems, it is
important to know the number of
possible number of outcomes in
sample space as well as events
For small number of outcomes, the
outcomes can be easily counted
For large sample spaces counting
techniques are used

Multiplication Principle
If an event takes place in successive stages
(slots), decide in how many ways each slot can be
filled and then multiply to get the total number of
outcomes
E.g. A string containing 4 alphabets
No of possible outcomes = 26 * 26 * 26 * 26
Sampling with replacement

E.g. A string containing 4 different alphabets

No of possible outcomes = 26 * 25 * 24 * 23
Sampling without replacement

Permutations and
Combinations
Permutations
Arrangements of objects in particular
order
Also called lineups

Combinations
Arrangements of objects regardless of
order
Also called committees

Permutations

Permutations

Combinations

Combinations
E.g. Combinations of 5 of 7 objects A, B,
C, D, E, F, G
Combinations

Permutations

ABCDE

(1)EDBCA
(2)ADBCE
(3)ACBDE
|
(120)EDCBA

(5! Permutations)

CDEFG

(1)CGDEF
(2)CEDFG
(3)CFDEG
|
(120)EFCDG

(5! Permutations)

Etc.

-----

(5! Permutations)
each

Combinations

Properties of Binominal
Coefficient