Aggregate Planning Iqbal KU

12-1 Aggregate Planning
Aggregate planning
By
Prof. Iqbal Ahmad Hakim
The Business School,
University of Kashmir, Srinagar
Planning Horizon
Aggregate planning: Intermediate-range
capacity planning, usually covering 2 to 12 months.
The goal of aggregate planning is to achieve a
production plan that will effectively utilize the
organizations resources to satisfy expected
demand.
Long range
Short
range
Now
Intermediate
range
2 months
1 Year
The Planning Process

Long-range plans
(over one year)
Research and Development

New product plans
Capital investments
Facility location/expansion
Top
executives
Operations
managers
Intermediate-range plans
(3 to 18 months)
Sales planning
Production planning and budgeting
Setting employment, inventory,
subcontracting levels
Analyzing operating plans
Short-range plans
(up to 3 months)
Operations
managers,
supervisors,
foremen
Responsibility
Job assignments
Ordering
Job scheduling
Dispatching
Overtime
Part-time help
Planning tasks and horizon
Overview of Planning Levels

Organizations make capacity decisions on three levels:
Short-range plans (Detailed plans)

Machine loading
Job assignments
Intermediate plans (General levels)

Employment
Output, and inventories
Long-range plans
Long term capacity
Location / layout
Planning Sequence
Corporate
strategies
and policies
Economic,
competitive,
and political
conditions
Aggregate
demand
forecasts
Business Plan
Establishes operations
and capacity strategies
Aggregate plan
Establishes
operations capacity
Master schedule
Establishes schedules
for specific products
Production Planning Process

Process Planning
Long
Range
Medium
Range
Strategic Capacity Planning

Aggregate Planning
Manufacturing
Services
Master Production Scheduling

Material Requirements Planning
Order Scheduling
Short
Range
Weekly Workforce &

Customer Scheduling
Daily Workforce &
Customer Scheduling
Dealing with the Problem Complexity

through Decomposition
Corporate Strategy
Aggregate Unit
Demand
Aggregate Planning
(Plan. Hor.: 1 year, Time Unit: 1 month)
Capacity and Aggregate Production Plans

End Item (SKU)
Demand
Master Production Scheduling

(Plan. Hor.: a few months, Time Unit: 1 week)
SKU-level Production Plans

Manufacturing
and Procurement
lead times
Part process
plans
Materials Requirement Planning

(Plan. Hor.: a few months, Time Unit: 1 week)
Component Production lots and due dates
Shop floor-level Production Control

(Plan. Hor.: a day or a shift, Time Unit: real-time)
Aggregate Planning
Combines appropriate resources into
general terms
Part of a larger production planning
system
Disaggregation breaks the plan down
into greater detail
Disaggregation results in a master
production schedule
Aggregate Planning Problem

Aggr. Unit
Production Reqs
Corporate Strategy
Aggregate
Unit Demand
Aggregate
Unit Availability
(Current Inventory
Position)
Aggregate
Production Plan
Aggregate Planning
Aggregate Production Plan:

Aggregate Production levels
Aggregate Inventory levels
Aggregate Backorder levels
Required
Production Capacity
Production Capacity Plan:

Workforce level(s)
Overtime level(s)
Subcontracted Quantities
Product Aggregation Schemes

Items
(or Stock Keeping Units - SKUs): The final products delivered to the
(downstream) customers
Families: Group of items that share a common manufacturing setup cost;
i.e., they have similar production requirements.
Aggregate
Unit: A fictitious item representing an entire product family.

Aggregate Unit Production Requirements: The amount of (labor) time
required for the production of one aggregate unit. This is computed by
appropriately averaging the (labor) time requirements over the entire set of
items represented by the aggregate unit.
Aggregate Unit Demand: The cumulative demand for the entire set of items
represented by the aggregate unit.
Remark: Being the cumulate of a number of independent demand series, the
demand for the aggregate unit is a more robust estimate than its constituent
components.
Computing the Aggregate Unit

Production Requirements
Washing machine
Model Number
A5532
Required labor time

(hrs)
4.2
Item demand as % of
aggregate demand
32
K4242
4.9
21
L9898
5.1
17
3800
5.2
14
M2624
5.4
10
M3880
5.8
06
Aggregate unit labor time = (.32)(4.2)+(.21)(4.9)+(.17)(5.1)+(.14)(5.2)+

(.10)(5.4)+(.06)(5.8) = 4.856 hrs
Overview of aggregate planning
Aggregate planning begins with a forecast of aggregate

demand for the intermediate range.
This is followed by a general plan to meet demand
requirements by setting output, employment, and finishedgoods inventory or service capacities.
Managers must consider a number of plans, each of which
must be examined in light of feasibility and cost.
If a plan is reasonably good but has minor difficulties, it
may be reworked.
Aggregate plans are updated periodically, often monthly,
to take into account updated forecast and other changes.
Aggregate Planning Inputs

Demand forecast
Resources
Workforce/production rate
Facilities and equipment
Policies
Subcontracting
Overtime
Inventory levels
Back orders
Costs
Inventory carrying
Back orders
Hiring/firing
Overtime
Inventory changes
subcontracting
Aggregate Planning Outputs

Total cost of a plan
Projected levels of:
Inventory
Output
Employment
Subcontracting
Backordering
Aggregate Planning Strategies
Should inventories be used to absorb changes in demand

during planning period?
Should demand changes be accommodated by varying the
size of the workforce?
Should part-timers be used, or should overtime and/or
machine idle time be used to absorb fluctuations?
Should subcontractors be used on fluctuating orders so a
stable workforce can be maintained?
Should prices or other factors be changed to influence
demand?
15
Overview of the Aggregation Problem

Suppose that D1, D2, . . . , DT are the forecasts of
demand for aggregate units over the planning
horizon (T periods.)
The problem is to determine both work force
levels (Wt) and production levels (Pt ) to minimize
total costs over the T period planning horizon.
16
Important Issues
Smoothing. Refers to the costs and disruptions that

result from making changes from one period to the next
Bottleneck Planning. Problem of meeting peak demand
in the face of capacity restrictions
Planning Horizon. Assumed given (T), but what is
right value? Rolling horizons and end of horizon
effect are both important issues
Treatment of Demand. Assume demand is known.
Ignores uncertainty to focus on the predictable or
systematic variations in demand, such as seasonality
17
Relevant Costs
Smoothing Costs
Holding Costs
primary component: opportunity cost of investment $s tied

up in inventory
Shortage Costs
changing size of the work force

changing number of units produced
Cost of demand exceeding stock on hand. Why should

shortages be an issue if demand is known?
Other Costs: payroll, overtime, subcontracting,

Make or Buy decision
18
Aggregate Units
The method is (fundamentally) based on notion of

aggregate units. They may be:
Actual units of production

Weight (tons of steel)
Volume (gallons of gasoline)
Dollars (Value of sales)
Fictitious aggregated units
they are a composite that estimates a tangible input constant

19
Proactive
Reactive
Involve demand options: Attempt to alter

demand to match capacity
Involve capacity options: attempt to alter
capacity to match demand
Mixed
Some of each

1. Use inventories to absorb changes in
demand
2. Accommodate changes by varying workforce
size
3. Use part-timers, overtime, or idle time to
absorb changes
4. Use subcontractors and maintain a stable
workforce
5. Change prices or other factors to influence
demand
Demand Options
Pricing
Promotion
Back orders
New demand
Demand Options
Influencing demand
Use advertising or promotion to
increase demand in low periods
Attempt to shift
demand to slow
periods
May not be
sufficient to
balance demand
and capacity
Demand Options
Back ordering during highdemand
periods
Requires customers to wait for an
order without loss of goodwill or the
order
Most effective when there are few if
any substitutes for the product or
service
Often results in lost sales
Demand Options
Counterseasonal product and
service mixing
Develop a product mix of
counterseasonal items
May lead to products or services
outside the companys areas of
expertise
Pricing
Pricing differential are commonly used to shift demand

from peak periods to off-peak periods, for example:
Some hotels offer lower rates for weekend stays/offseasons

Some airlines offer lower fares for night travel
Some restaurant offer early special menus to shift some of
the heavier dinner demand to an earlier time that
traditionally has less traffic.
To the extent that pricing is effective, demand will be

shifted so that it correspond more closely to capacity.
An important factor to consider is the degree of price
elasticity of demand; the more the elasticity, the more
effective pricing will be in influencing demand patterns.
Promotion
Advertising and any other forms of promotion,
such as displays and direct marketing, can
sometimes be very effective in shifting demand
so that it conforms more closely to capacity.
Timing of promotion and knowledge of
response rates and response patterns will be
needed to achieve the desired result.
There is a risk that promotion can worsen the
condition it was intended to improve, by
bringing in demand at the wrong time.
Back order
An organization can shift demand to other periods
by allowing back orders. That is , orders are taken
in one period and deliveries promised for a later
period.
The success of this approach depends on how
willing the customers are to wait for delivery.
The cost associated with back orders can be
difficult to pin down since it would include lost
sales, annoyed or disappointed customers, and
perhaps additional paperwork.
New demand
Manufacturing
firms that experience

seasonal demand are sometimes able
to develop a demand for a
complementary product that makes
use of the same production process.
For example, the firms that produce
water ski in the summer, produce
snow ski in the winter.
Capacity Options
Hire and layoff workers
Overtime/slack time
Part-time workers
Inventories
Subcontracting (in- out)
Capacity Options
Changing inventory levels
Increase inventory in low demand
periods to meet high demand in the
future
Increases costs associated with
storage, insurance, handling,
obsolescence, and capital investment
15% to 40%
Shortages can mean lost sales due to
long lead times and poor customer
service
Capacity Options
Varying workforce size by hiring or
layoffs
Match production rate to demand
Training and separation costs for
hiring and laying off workers
New workers may have lower
productivity
Laying off workers may lower morale
and productivity
Capacity Options
Varying production rate through
overtime or idle time
Allows constant workforce
May be difficult to meet large
increases in demand
Overtime can be costly and may drive
down productivity
Absorbing idle time may be difficult
Capacity Options
Subcontracting
Temporary measure during periods of
peak demand
May be costly
Assuring quality and timely delivery
may be difficult
Exposes your customers to a
possible competitor
Capacity Options
Using part-time workers
Useful for filling unskilled or low
skilled positions, especially in
services
Pure Aggregate Planning

Strategies
1. Demand Chasing: Vary the Workforce Level

PC WC HC FC
D(t)
P(t) = D(t)
W(t)
D(t):
Aggregate demand series

P(t): Aggregate production levels
W(t): Required Workforce levels
Costs Involved:
PC: Production Costs
fixed (setup, overhead)
variable (materials, consumables, etc.)
WC: Regular labor costs
HC: Hiring costs: e.g., advertising, interviewing, training
FC: Firing costs: e.g., compensation, social cost

Strategies
2. Varying Production Capacity with Constant Workforce:

PC SC WC OC UC
D(t)
S(t):
P(t)
S(t)
O(t)
U(t)
W = constant
Subcontracted quantities
O(t): Overtime levels
U(t): Undertime levels
Costs involved:
PC, WC: as before
SC: subcontracting costs: e.g., purchasing, transport, quality, etc.
OC: overtime costs: incremental cost of producing one unit in overtime
(UC: undertime costs: this is hidden in WC)

Strategies
3. Accumulating (Seasonal) Inventories:

PC WC IC
D(t)
P(t)
I(t)
W(t), O(t), U(t), S(t) = constant
I(t):
Accumulated Inventory levels

Costs involved:
PC, WC: as before
IC: inventory holding costs: e.g., interest lost, storage space, pilferage,
obsolescence, etc.

Strategies
4. Backlogging:
PC WC BC
D(t)
P(t)
B(t)
W(t), O(t), U(t), S(t) = constant
B(t):
Accumulated Backlog levels

Costs involved:
PC, WC: as before
BC: backlog (handling) costs: e.g., expediting costs, penalties, lost sales
(eventually), customer dissatisfaction
Typical Aggregate Planning

Strategy
A mixture of the previously discussed pure options:

PC WC HC FC OC UC SC IC BC
P
W
H
F
O
U
S
I
B
D
Io
Wo
+
Additional constraints arising from the company strategy; e.g.,
maximal allowed subcontracting
maximal allowed workforce variation in two consecutive periods
maximal allowed overtime
safety stocks
etc.

for meeting uneven demand
Maintain a level workforce
Maintain a steady output rate
Match demand period by period
Use a combination of decision variables
Basic Strategies
Level capacity strategy:
Maintaining a steady rate of regular-time

output while meeting variations in demand by a
combination of options such as: inventories,
overtime, part-time workers, subcontracting
and back orders.
Chase demand strategy:
Matching capacity to demand; the planned

output for a period is set at the expected
demand for that period.
Chase Approach
Advantages
Investment in inventory is low
Labor utilization is high
Disadvantages
The cost of adjusting output rates and/or

workforce levels
Level Approach
Advantages
Stable output rates and workforce levels
Disadvantages
Greater inventory costs
Increased overtime and idle time
Resource utilizations vary over time
Aggregate Planning Options

Option
Advantages
Disadvantages
Some Comments
Changing
inventory
levels
Changes in
Inventory
human
holding cost
resources are
may increase.
gradual or
Shortages may
none; no abrupt result in lost
production
sales.
changes.
Applies mainly to
production, not
service,
operations.
Varying
workforce
size by
hiring or
layoffs
Avoids the costs Hiring, layoff,

of other
and training
alternatives.
costs may be
significant.
Used where size

of labor pool is
large.
Table 13.1

Option
Advantages
Disadvantages
Some Comments
Allows flexibility
within the
aggregate plan.
Varying
production
rates
through
overtime or
idle time
Matches
seasonal
fluctuations
without hiring/
training costs.
Overtime
premiums; tired
workers; may
not meet
demand.
Subcontracting
Permits
flexibility and
smoothing of
the firms
output.
Loss of quality
Applies mainly in
control;
production
reduced profits; settings.
loss of future
business.
Table 13.1

Option
Advantages
Disadvantages
Some Comments
High turnover/
training costs;
quality suffers;
scheduling
difficult.
Good for
unskilled jobs in
areas with large
temporary labor
pools.
Using parttime
workers
Is less costly
and more
flexible than
full-time
workers.
Influencing
demand
Tries to use
Uncertainty in
excess
demand. Hard
capacity.
to match
Discounts draw demand to
new customers. supply exactly.
Creates
marketing
ideas.
Overbooking
used in some
businesses.
Table 13.1

Option
Back
ordering
during
highdemand
periods
Advantages
Disadvantages
Some Comments
May avoid
overtime.
Keeps capacity
constant.
Customer must
be willing to
wait, but
goodwill is lost.
Many companies
back order.
May require
skills or
equipment
outside the
firms areas of
expertise.
Risky finding
products or
services with
opposite
demand
patterns.
CounterFully utilizes
seasonal
resources;
product
allows stable
and service workforce.
mixing
Table 13.1
Methods for Aggregate Planning

A mixed strategy may be the best way
to achieve minimum costs
There are many possible mixed
strategies
Finding the optimal plan is not always
possible
Mixing Options to
Develop a Plan
Chase strategy
Match output rates to demand forecast
for each period
Vary workforce levels or vary production
rate
Favored by many service organizations
Mixing Options to
Develop a Plan
Level strategy
Daily production is uniform
Use inventory or idle time as buffer
Stable production leads to better quality
and productivity
Some combination of capacity

options, a mixed strategy, might be
the best solution
Graphical Methods
Popular techniques
Easy to understand and use
Trial-and-error approaches that do
not guarantee an optimal solution
Require only limited computations
Graphical Methods
1. Determine the demand for each period
2. Determine the capacity for regular time,
overtime, and subcontracting each period
3. Find labor costs, hiring and layoff costs, and
inventory holding costs
4. Consider company policy on workers and
stock levels
5. Develop alternative plans and examine their
total costs
Roofing Supplier Example 1

Production
Days
Demand Per Day

(computed)
Month
Expected Demand
Jan
900
22
41
Feb
700
18
39
Mar
800
21
38
Apr
1,200
21
57
May
1,500
22
68
June
1,100
20
55
6,200
124
Average
requirement
Total expected demand

Number of production days
6,200
=
= 50 units per day
124
Table 13.2

Production rate per working day
Forecast demand
70
60
Level production using average

monthly forecast demand
50
40
30
0
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
22
18
21
21
22
20
Figure 13.3
= Month
= Number of
working days

Cost Information
Inventory carrying cost
$ 5 per unit per month
Subcontracting cost per unit
$10 per unit
Average pay rate
$ 5 per hour ($40 per day)
Overtime pay rate
$ 7 per hour
(above 8 hours per day)
Labor-hours to produce a unit
1.6 hours per unit
Cost of increasing daily production rate

(hiring and training)
$300 per unit
Cost of decreasing daily production rate

(layoffs)
$600 per unit
Table 13.3
ce
r
o
f
k
r
o
tant w
s
n
o
c
Plan 1

Cost Information
Production at
Inventory
cost per Day
Month carry
50 Units
Monthly
Demand Inventory
Ending
per unit per Inventory
month
Forecast $ 5Change
$10 +200
per unit
Average
Feb pay rate 900
900
700
Mar pay rate1,050

Overtime
800
$ 7 per
hour
+250
650
Subcontracting
cost
per unit
Jan
1,100
Apr
1,050
1,200
May
1,100
1,500
Cost
of increasing
daily production
rate
June
1,000
1,100
(layoffs)
200
$ 5 per
hour ($40 per
day)
+200
400
-150
500
$300-400
per unit
100
1.6 hours per unit
-100
$600 per unit
1,850
Total units of inventory carried over from one t workforce
stan = 1,850 units
onnext
Table 13.3
c
month
to
the
1
Plan
Workforce required to produce 50 units per day = 10 workers

Monthly
Cost Information
Costs
Calculations
Production at
Demand Inventory
Ending
$ 5Change
perunits
unit per
monthx $5
Inventory
cost per Day $9,250
Month carry
50
Units
Forecast
Inventory
Inventory
carrying
(= 1,850
carried
unit)
$10
per unit
Subcontracting
cost
per unit
Jan
1,100
900 per
+200
200
Regular-time
labor
Average
Feb pay rate
900
Mar pay rate1,050
Overtime
49,600
x $40
per
$ 5 workers
per
hour ($40
per
day)
700 (= 10
+200
400
day
xper
124
days)
$
7
hour
800
+250
650
Other costs (overtime,

Apr layoffs,
1,050
1,200
hiring,
Labor-hours
to produce a unit
subcontracting)
0rate
May
1,100
1,500
Cost
of increasing
daily production
(hiring
and training)
Total
cost
$58,850
June
1,000
1,100

(layoffs)
-150
500
$300-400
per unit
100
1.6 hours per unit
-100
$600 per unit
0
1,850
Total units of inventory carried over from one

Table 13.3
month to the next = 1,850 units
Workforce required to produce 50 units per day = 10 workers

7,000
Cumulative demand units
6,000
Reduction
of inventory
5,000
4,000
3,000
6,200 units
Cumulative level
production using
average monthly
forecast
requirements
2,000
1,000
Cumulative forecast
requirements
Excess inventory
Jan
Figure 13.4
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June

Production
Days
Demand Per Day

(computed)
Month
Expected Demand
Jan
900
22
41
Feb
700
18
39
Mar
800
21
38
Apr
1,200
21
57
May
1,500
22
68
June
1,100
20
55
6,200
124
cting
a
r
t
n
o
c
sub
2
n
a
Pl
Minimum requirement = 38 units per day
Table 13.2

Forecast demand
70
60
Level production
using lowest
monthly forecast
demand
50
40
30
0
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
22
18
21
21
22
20
= Month
= Number of
working days

Cost Information
$10 per unit
Average pay rate
Overtime pay rate
$ 7 per hour
1.6 hours per unit

$300 per unit

(layoffs)
$600 per unit
Table 13.3

Cost Information
Inventory carry cost
In-housecost
production
Subcontracting
per unit
Average pay rate
Overtime pay rate
= 38$10units
per day
per unit
x $124
5 perdays
hour ($40 per day)
$ 7 perunits
hour
= 4,712
Labor-hours
to produce a unit
Subcontract
units
1.6 hours
per unit
= 6,200
- 4,712
$300 per unit
=
1,488
units
(layoffs)
Table 13.3
$600 per unit

Cost Information
Inventory carry cost
In-housecost
production
Subcontracting
per unit
Average pay rate
Overtime pay rate
= 38$10units
per day
per unit
x $124
5 perdays
hour ($40 per day)
$ 7 perunits
hour
= 4,712
Labor-hours
to produce a unit
Costs Subcontract
units
1.6 hours
per unit
= Calculations
6,200
- 4,712
per unit x $40 per
Cost
of increasing
daily production
rate (= $300
Regular-time
labor
$37,696
7.6 workers
=
1,488
units
day x 124 days)
unitx $10 per
Cost
of decreasing daily production
Subcontracting
14,880rate (= $600
1,488per
units
(layoffs)
unit)
Table 13.3
Total cost
$52,576

Production
Days
Demand Per Day

(computed)
Month
Expected Demand
Jan
900
22
41
Feb
700
18
39
Mar
800
21
38
Apr
1,200
21
57
May
1,500
22
68
June
1,100
20
55
6,200
124
Plan
firing
d
n
a
g
n
3 h ir i
Production = Expected Demand
Table 13.2

Forecast demand and
monthly production
70
60
50
40
30
0
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
22
18
21
21
22
20
= Month
= Number of
working days

Cost Information
$10 per unit
Average pay rate
Overtime pay rate
$ 7 per hour
1.6 hours per unit

$300 per unit

(layoffs)
$600 per unit
Table 13.3

Basic
Production
Cost
Inventory carrying
cost (demand
Daily
x
Forecast
Prod
1.6 hrs/unit x
Subcontracting
cost
Month
(units)
Rate per unit
$5/hr)
Cost Information
Extra Cost$of
5 perExtra
unitCost
perofmonth
Increasing
Decreasing
Production
Production
$10 per(layoff
unitcost) Total Cost
(hiring cost)
41
$ 7,200
$ 5 per hour
day)
($40 per$ 7,200
Feb
700
Overtime
pay rate39
5,600
$ 7 per hour
$1,200
6,800
(= 28x hours
$600) per day)
(above
Mar
800 to produce
38
6,400
Labor-hours
a unit
$600
1.6 hours
per
unit
(= 1 x
$600)
Average
pay
Jan
900 rate
7,000

$5,700 $300 per unit
Apr
1,200
57
9,600
(= 19 x $300)
15,300
$3,300 $600 per unit

Cost
rate
May of decreasing
1,500
68daily production
12,000
(= 11 x $300)
(layoffs)
15,300
June
1,100
Table 13.3
55
8,800
$49,600
$7,800
(= 13 x $600)
16,600
$9,000
$9,600
$68,200
Table 13.4
Comparison of Three Plans

Cost
Plan 1
Plan 2
Inventory carrying
$ 9,250
Regular labor
49,600
37,696
49,600
Overtime labor
Hiring
9,000
Layoffs
9,600
Subcontracting
14,880
$58,850
$52,576
$68,200
Total cost
Plan 2 is the lowest cost option
Plan 3
$
Table 13.5
Mathematical Approaches
Useful for generating strategies
Transportation Method of Linear
Programming
Produces an optimal plan
Management Coefficients Model
Model built around managers experience and performance
Other Models
Linear Decision Rule
Simulation
A general procedure for Aggregate

Planning
1.
Determine demand for each period
2.
Determine capacities (regular time, over time, and

subcontracting) for each period
3.
Identify policies that are pertinent
4.
Determine units costs for regular time, overtime,

subcontracting, holding inventories, back orders, layoffs,
and other relevant costs
5.
Develop alternative plans and compute the costs for each
6.
Select the best plan that satisfies objectives. Otherwise

return to step 5.
Mathematical Techniques
Linear programming: Methods for obtaining optimal
solutions to problems involving allocation of scarce
resources in terms of cost minimization.
Linear decision rule: Optimizing technique that seeks to
minimize combined costs, using a set of costapproximating functions to obtain a single quadratic
equation.
Simulation models: Developing a computerized models that
can be tested under a variety of conditions in an attempt
to identify reasonably acceptable (although not always
optimal) solutions to problem.
Summary of Planning Techniques

Table 12.7
Technique
Solution
Characteristics
Graphical/charting
Trial and
error
Linear
programming
Linear
decision rule
Optimizing
Simulation
Trial and
error
Intuitively appealing, easy to

understand; solution not
necessarily optimal.
Computerized; linear
assumptions not always valid.
Complex, requires considerable
effort to obtain pertinent cost
information and to construct
model; cost assumptions not
always valid.
Computerized models can be
examined under a variety of
conditions.
Optimizing
Linear programming
Linear programming models are methods for obtaining

optimal solutions to problems involving the allocation of
scarce resources in terms of cost minimization or profit
maximization.
With aggregate planning, the goal is usually to minimize
the sum of costs related to regular labor time, overtime,
subcontracting, carrying inventory, and cost associated
with changing the size of the workforce. Constraints
involve the capacities of the workforce, inventories, and
subcontracting.
The aggregate planning problem can be formulated as a
transportation problem (special case of linear
programming.
Example
Given the following information set up the problem in a transportation table and
solve for the minimum cost plan.
period
1
550
700
750
Regular
500
500
500
Overtime
50
50
50
subcontract
120
120
100
demand
Capacity
Beginning inventory
100
Costs
Regular time
$60 per unit

80 per unit
Overtime
90 per unit
Subcontract
$1 per unit per month
$3 per unit per month
Back order cost
Solution
a.
b.
c.
d.
The transportation table and solution are shown in the next slide.
Some entries require additional explanation:
Inventory carrying cost, h = $1 per unit per period. Hence, units
produced in one period and carried over to a later period will
incur a holding cost that is a linear function of the length of time
held.
Linear programming models of this type require that supply
(capacity) and demand be equal. A dummy column has been
added (nonexistent capacity) to satisfy that requirement. Since it
does not cost anything extra to not use capacity in this case,
cell costs of $0 have been assigned.
No backlogs were needed in this example
The quantities (e.g., 100, 450 in column 1) are the amounts of
output or inventory that will be used to meet demand
requirements. Thus, the demand of 550 units in period 1 will be
met using 100 units from inventory and 450 obtained from
regular time output.
Initial solution using northwest corner
Period
1
Beginning
inventory
Regular
Period
1
Period
2
Period
3
Unused
capacity
100
capacity
100
60
50
61
62
500
Overtime
80
50
81
82
50
Total
cost is
subcontract
90
120
91
92
120
$124910
Regular
63
480
60
20
61
500
Overtime
83
80
50
81
50
subcontract
93
90
120
91
120
Regular
66
63
500
60
500
Overtime
86
83
50
80
50
subcontract
96
93
10
90
100
demand
450
550
700
750
90
90
2090
Period
1
Beginning
inventory
Regular
Optimal solution
Period
1
Period
2
Period
3
Unused
capacity
100
capacity
100
60
50
61
62
500
Overtime
80
50
81
82
50
subcontract
90
30
91
92
120
Regular
63
500
60
61
500
Overtime
83
50
80
81
50
subcontract
93
20
90
100
91
120
Regular
66
63
500
60
500
Overtime
86
83
50
80
50
subcontract
96
93
100
90
100
demand
450
550
700
750
90
90
2090
Total
cost is
$124730
Some important relationships

Number of
Workers in
A period
number of
number of new
= workers at end of
+ workers at start
the previous period
of the period
Inventory
At the end of
A period
Cost for
a period
inventory
at the end of
previous period
number of laid-off
- workers at start of
the period
production
+ in the
current period
output cost
(Reg + OT + subcontract)
hire/layoff
cost
amount used to
satisfy demand in
current period
inventory
cost
back order
+
cost
Average
= Beginning Inventory + Ending Inventory
inventory
2
Cost calculation
Type of cost
How to calculate
Output
Regular
Regular cost per unit Quantity of regular output
Overtime
Overtime cost per unit Overtime quantity
Subcontract
Subcontract cost per unit subcontract quantity
Hire/layoff
Hire
Cost per hire number hired
Layoff
Cost per layoff number laid of
Inventory
Carrying cost per unit average inventory
Back order
Back-order cost per unit number of back order

unit
Example 1
Planners for a company that makes several models of skateboards are about to prepare the
aggregate plan that will cover six periods. They now want to evaluate a plan that calls for
a steady rate of regular output, mainly using inventory to absorb the uneven demand but
allowing some backlog. Overtime and subcontracting are not used because they want a
steady output. They intend to start with zero inventory on hand in the first period. Prepare
an aggregate plan and determine its cost using the following information. Assume a level
of output rate of 300 unit per period with regular time. Note that the planned ending
inventory is zero. There are 15 workers, and each can produce 20 units per period.
period
total
forecast
200
200
300
400
500
200
1800
Cost:
Regular time = $2 per skateboard
Overtime = $3 per skateboard
Subcontract = $6 per skateboard
Inventory = $1 per skateboard per period on average inventory
Back orders = $5 per skateboard per period
Solution: example 1
Period
total
200
200
300
400
500
200
1800
300
300
300
300
300
300
1800
Overtime
Subcontract
100
100
(100)
(200)
100
100
200
200
100
Ending
100
200
200
100
Average
50
150
200
150
50
600
100
100
$600
600
600
600
600
600
$3600
Forecast
Output
Regular
Output-forecast
Inventory
Beginning
Backlog
Cost
Output
Regular
Example 2
After reviewing the plan developed in the preceding
example, planners have decided to develop an
alternative plan. They have learned that one is
about to retire from the company. Rather than
replace that person, they would like to stay with
the smaller workforce and use overtime to make
up for lost output. The reduced regular time output
is 280 units per period. The maximum amount of
overtime output per period is 40 units. Develop a
plan and compare it to the previous one.
Solution: example 2
Period
total
200
200
300
400
500
200
1800
280
280
280
280
280
280
1680
Overtime
40
40
40
120
Subcontract
80
80
20
(80)
(180)
80
Beginning
80
160
180
100
Ending
80
160
180
100
Average
40
120
170
140
50
520
80
80
Forecast
Output
Regular
Output-forecast
Inventory
Backlog
Cost
Output
Comment: example 2
The amount of overtime that must be scheduled has to

make up for lost output of 20 units per period for six
periods, which is 120. this is scheduled toward the center
of the planning horizon since that is where the bulk of
demand occurs. Scheduling it earlier would increase
inventory carrying costs; scheduling it later would
increase backlog cost.
Overall the total cost for this plan is 44640, which is $60
less than the previous plan.
Regular time production cost and inventory cost are
down, but there is overtime cost, however, this plan
achieves savings in back order cost, making it somewhat
less costly overall than the plan in example 1
Aggregate Planning in Services
Aggregate planning for services takes into account

projected customer demands, equipment, capacities, and
labor capabilities. The resulting plan is a time-phased
projection of service staff requirements.
Aggregate planning for manufacturing and aggregate

planning for services share similarities in some respect,
but there are some important differences which are:
Services occur when they are rendered
Demand for service can be difficult to predict
Capacity availability can be difficult to predict
Labor flexibility can be an advantage in services
Disaggregating the aggregate plan
For the production plan to be translated into meaningful terms of

production, it is necessary to disaggregate the aggregate plan.
This means breaking down the aggregate plan into specific product
requirements in order to determine labor requirements (skills, size
of workforce), materials, and inventory requirements.
To put the aggregate production plan into operation, one must
convert, or decompose, those aggregate units into units of actual
product or services that are to be produced or offered.
For example, televisions manufacturer may have an aggregate plan
that calls for 200 television in January, 300 in February, and 400 in
March. This company produce 21, 26, and 29 inch TVs, therefore
the 200, 300, and 400 aggregate TVs that are to be produced during
those three months must be translated into specific numbers of TVs
of each type prior to actually purchasing the appropriate materials
and parts, scheduling operations, and planning inventory
requirements.
Disaggregation
Aggregate plans were built to optimal staffing levels for

families or groups of products
Disaggregation is a means to build specific Master
Production Schedules
Typically by breaking down the aggregating weights to
individual parts or working on schedules of these
families as optimal
Later leads to values similar to EOQ
90
Master scheduling
The result of disaggregating the aggregate plan is a master schedule

showing the quantity and timing of specific end items for a
scheduled horizon, which often covers about six to eight weeks
ahead.
The master schedule shows the planned output for individual
products rather than an entire product group, along with the timing
of production.
It should be noted that whereas the aggregate plan covers an interval
of, say, 12 months, the master schedule covers only a portion of this.
In other words, the aggregate plan is disaggregated in stages , or
phases, that may cover a few weeks to two or three months.
The master schedule contains important information for marketing
as well as for production. It reveals when orders are scheduled for
production and when completed orders are to be shipped.
Aggregate Plan to Master Schedule

Figure 12.4
Aggregate
Planning
Aggregate
plan
Disaggregation
Master
Schedule
Master
schedule
Jan
Feb
Mar.
200
300
400
Type Jan. Feb. Mar

21
100 100 100
inch
26
inch
75
150
200
29
inch
25
50
100
Master Scheduling
Master schedule
Determines quantities needed to meet demand
Interfaces with
Marketing: it enables marketing to make valid

delivery commitments to warehouse and final
customers.
Capacity planning: it enables production to evaluate
capacity requirements
Production planning
Distribution planning
Master Scheduler
The duties of the master scheduler generally
include:
Evaluates impact of new orders
Provides delivery dates for orders
Deals with problems such as:
Production delays
Revising master schedule
Insufficient capacity
Master Scheduling Process

Figure 12.6
Inputs
Outputs
Beginning inventory
Forecast
Customer orders
Projected inventory
Master
Scheduling
Master production schedule

Uncommitted inventory
Master scheduling process
Master production schedule (MPS): indicates the quantity

and timing of planned production, taking into account
desired delivery quantity and timing as well as on-hand
inventory. The MPS is one of the primary outputs of the
master scheduling process.
Rough-cut capacity Planning (RCCP): it involves testing
the feasibility of a proposed master relative to available
capacities, to assure that no obvious capacity constraints
exist. This means checking capacities of production
warehouse facilities, labor, and vendors to ensure that no
gross deficiencies exist that will render the master
schedule unworkable
Master schedule
Inputs:
Beginning inventory; which is the actual inventory
on hand from the preceding period of the schedule
Forecasts for each period demand
Customer orders; which are quantities already
committed to customers.
Outputs
Projected inventory
Production requirements
The resulting uncommitted inventory which is
referred to as available-to-promise (ATP) inventory
Introduction-What is Operations Scheduling
Implement the production

orders generated in MRP under
given objectives ;
Allocate production resources
(machine, workers et al.) to
production orders (jobs or tasks
and their due dates) in an
optimized manners;
The results are time allocations
of production resources to
different jobs (job sequences on
each production resources);
All the orders can be completed
while all production resources
are utilized with their loads
being balanced.
Forecast of future demand

Aggregate plan
Master production schedule (MPS)
Schedule of production quantities by
product and time period
Material Requirement Planning (MRP)
Generate production orders and
purchase order
Operations Scheduling
To meet quantities and time
requirements for MRP
Projected On-hand Inventory
Projected on-hand
=
inventory
Inventory from
previous week
Current weeks
requirements
12-100Aggregate Planning
Scheduling
Scheduling:
Establishing the timing of the use of equipment, facilities and

human activities in an organization
Effective scheduling can yield
Cost savings
Increases in productivity
Other benefits
Instructor Slides
Scheduling Context
Scheduling is constrained by multiple system

design decisions
System capacity
Product and/or service design
Equipment selection
Worker selection and training
Aggregate planning and master scheduling
Instructor Slides
Scheduling Hierarchies
Instructor Slides
Sequencing Rules
FCFS (first come-first served)
Jobs are processed in the sequence in which they entered the shop;
The simplest and nature way of sequencing as in queuing of a bank

SPT (shortest processing time)
Jobs are sequenced in increasing order of their processing time;
The job with shortest processing time is first, the one with the next
shortest processing time is second, and so on;
EDD (earliest due date)
Jobs are sequenced in increasing order of their due dates;
The job with earliest due date is first, the one with the next earliest due
date is second, and so on;
Sequencing Rules
CR (Critical ratio)
Critical ratio is the remaining time until due date divided by processing
time;
Scheduling the job with the smallest CR next;
Current time
Remaining time of Job i
Due date of Job i
Processing time of Job i

CRi=Remaining time of Job i/Processing time of Job i
=(Due date of Job i-current time)/Processing time of Job i
CR provides the balance between SPT and EDD, such that the task with shorter
remaining time and longer processing time takes higher priority;
CR will become smaller as the current time approaches due date, and more priority
will given to one with longer processing time;
For a job, if the numerator of its CR is negative ( the job has been already later), it is
naturally scheduled next;
If more than one jobs are later, higher priority is given to one that has shorter
processing time (SPT).
Sequencing Rules
Example 5.1
A machine center in a job shop for a local fabrication company has five
unprocessed jobs remaining at a particular point in time. The jobs are labeled
1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 in the order that they entered the shop. The respective
processing times and due dates are given in the table below.
Sequence the 5 jobs by above 4 rules and compare results based on mean
flow time, average tardiness, and number of tardy jobs
Job number
Processing Time
Due Date
1
2
3
4
5
11
29
31
1
2
61
45
31
33
32
Example: Master Schedule

A company that makes industrial pumps wants to prepare a
master production schedule for June and July. Marketing has
forecasted demand of 120 pumps for June and 160 pumps for
July. These have been evenly distributed over the four weeks in
each month: 30 per week in June and 40 per week in July.
Now suppose that there are currently 64 pumps in inventory (i.e.,
beginning inventory is 64 pumps), and that there are customer
orders that have been committed for the first five weeks
(booked) and must be filled which are 33, 20, 10, 4, and 2
respectively. The following figure (see next slide) shows the
three primary inputs to the master scheduling process:
beginning inventory, the forecast, and the customer orders that
have been committed. This information is necessary to
determine three quantities: the projected on-hand inventory, the
master production schedule (MPS) and the uncommitted (ATP)
inventory. Suppose a production lot size of 70 pumps is used.
Prepare the master Schedule
Solution: Master schedule

Figure 12.8
The master schedule before MPS
Beginning
Inventory
64
Forecast
Customer Orders
(committed)
Projected on-hand
inventory
Customer orders are
larger than forecast in
week 1
1
30
JUNE
2
3
30 30
4
30
5
40
33
20
10
31
-29
JULY
6
7
40 40
8
40
Forecast is larger than

Customer orders in week 3
Forecast is larger than

Customer orders in week 2
Solution: The master schedule
The first step you have to calculate the on hand inventory
Week
Inventory
from previous
week
Requirements Net
MPS
inventory
before MPS
Projected
inventory
64
33
31
31
31
30
30
-29
41
30
11
11
40
-29
41
40
40
-39
70
31
31
40
-9
70
61
70
41
11
70
41
1
Solution: Master Schedule
The projected on-hand inventory and MPS are added to the master
schedule
Initial inventory
1
June
2
3
30
33
30
20
30
10
30 40 40
4 2
40
40
Projected on hand 31
inventory
41
11 41
31
61
70
56
70
68
70
70
70
70
64
Forecast
Customer orders
(committed)
MPS
Available to
promise inventory
11
July
6
7
Notes
The requirements equals the maximum of the
forecast and the customer orders
The net inventory before MPS equals the
inventory from previous week minus the
requirements.
The MPS = run size, will be added when the net
inventory before MPS is negative ( weeks 3, 5, 7,
and 8).
The projected inventory equals the net inventory
before MPS plus the MPS (70).
Solution: Master Schedule

The amount of inventory that is uncommitted, and,
hence, available to promise is calculated as follows:
Sum booked customer orders week by week until
(but not including) a week in which there is an MPS
amount. For example, in the first week, this
procedure results in summing customer orders of 33
(week 1) and 20 (week 2) to obtain 53. in the first
week, this amount is subtracted from the beginning
inventory of 64 pumps plus the MPS (zero in this
case) to obtain the amount that is available to
promise [(64 + 0 (33 + 20)] = 11
Sequencing Jobs Through

Two Serial Process
Johnsons Rule
1. List time required to process each job at each process. Set up

a one-dimensional matrix to represent desired sequence with
# of slots equal to # of jobs.
2. Select smallest processing time at either process. If that time
is on process 1, put the job as near to beginning of sequence
as possible.
3. If smallest time occurs on process 2, put the job as near to
the end of the sequence as possible.
4. Remove job from list.
5. Repeat steps 2-4 until all slots in matrix are filled and all jobs
are sequenced.
Copyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
17-112
Sequencin
g
With
Excel
17-113
Johnsons Rule
JOB
PROCESS 1
PROCESS 2
A
B
C
D
E
6
11
7
9
5
8
6
3
7
10
17-114
Johnsons Rule
E
A
5
11
Process 1
(sanding)
20
31
38
Idle time
E
5
A
15
D
23
B
30
37
Completion time = 41
Idle time = 5+1+1+3=10
Process 2
(painting)
17-115
41
Assembly Line Balancing
The problem of balancing an assembly line is a classic

industrial engineering problem.
The problem is characterized by a set of n distinct tasks that must be completed

on each item.
The time required to complete task i is a known constant ti.
The goal is to organize the tasks into groups, with each group of tasks being
performed at a single workstation.
In most cases, the amount of time allotted to each workstation is determined in
advance, based on the desired rate of production of the assembly line.
Assembly line balancing is traditionally thought of as a

facilities design and layout problem.
There are a variety of factors that contribute to the
difficulty of the problem.
Precedence constrains: some tasks may have to be

completed in a particular sequence.
Zoning restriction: Some tasks cannot be performed at

the same workstation.
Let t1, t2, , tn be the time required to complete the
respective tasks.
The total work content (time) associated with the
production of an item, say T, is given by
n
T
t
i 1

For
a cycle time of C, the minimum number of

workstations possible is [T/C], where the brackets
indicate that the value of T/C is to be rounded to the
next larger integer.
Ranked
positional weight technique:
Places
a weight on each task based on the total

time required by this task and all of the
succeeding tasks;
Tasks
are assigned sequentially to stations based

on these weights-the bigger the weight is, the
higher the priority is.

Example 8.11
The Final assembly of Noname personal computers, a generic mail-order PC
clone, requires a total of 12 tasks. The assembly is done at the Lubbock, Texas,
plant using various components imported from the Far East. The network
representation of this particular problem is given in the following figure.

t =70,
and the production rate is a unit /15 minutes;

The minimum number of workstations = [70/15]=5
Precondition
The job times and precedence relationships for this problem are summarized
in the table below.
i
Task
Immediate Predecessors
Time
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
_
1
2
2
2
2
3, 4
7
5
9, 6
8, 10
11
12
6
6
2
2
12
7
5
1
4
6
7

The solution precedence requires determining the positional
weight of each task. The positional weight of task i is defined as
the time required to perform task i plus the times required to
perform all tasks having task i as a predecessor.
t3+t7+t8+t11+t12=31
The ranking
1, 2, 3, 6, 4, 7, 5, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12
Task
Positional Weight
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
70
58
31
27
20
29
25
18
18
17
13
7
Profile 1
Assembly Line
Balancing
C=15
Station
Tasks
2, 3, 4
5, 6, 9
7, 8
10, 11
12
Processing time
12
14
15
12
10
Idle time
Task
Immediate
Predecessors
Time
12
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
2
2
2
3, 4
7
5
9, 6
8, 10
11
6
6
2
2
12
7
5
1
4
6
7
The ranking
1, 2, 3, 6, 4, 7, 5, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12
Profile 1
Assembly Line
Balancing
C=15
Station
Tasks
2,3,4
5,6,9
7,8
10,11
12
Processing time
12
14
15
10
Idle time
15
Cycle Time=15
T1=12
T2=6
T5=2
T7=7
T10=4
T12=7
T3=6
T6=12
T8=5
T11=6
The ranking
1, 2, 3, 6, 4, 7, 5, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12
T2=6
T4=2
T5=2
T9=1
T10=4
T12=7
Evaluate
the
balancing results by
the efficiency
ti/NC;
The efficiencies for
Profiles 1 is 77.7%.

Alternative 1: Change cycle time to ensure 5 station balance
Profile 2: Increasing cycle time from 15 to 16
Station
Tasks
2,3,4,5
6,9
7,8,10
11,12
Idle time
Increasing
the cycle time from 15 to 16, the total idle time

has been cut down from 20 min/units to 10; resulting in a
substantial improvement in balancing rate.
However, the production rate has to be reduced from one
unit/15 minutes to one unit/16minute;

Alternative 2: Staying with 6 stations, see if a six-station
balance could be obtained by cycle time less that 15 minutes
The
efficiencies for profile 1~ 3 are 77.7%,

87.5%, and 89.7%. Thus the profile 3 is the
best one.
Profile 2 C=13
Station
Tasks
2,3
4,5,7,9
8,10
11,12
Idle time
13 minutes appear to be the minimum cycle time with six

station balance.
Increasing the number of stations from 5 to 6 results in a great
improvement in production rate;
Time Fences in MPS
Time fences divide a scheduling time horizon into three sections or phases,
sometimes referred as frozen, slushy, and liquid, in reference to the firmness of
schedule:
Frozen phase: is the near-term phase that is so soon that delivery of a new order
would be impossible, or only possible using very costly or extraordinary options
such as delaying another delivery.
Slushy phase: is the next phase, and its time fence is usually a few periods beyond
the frozen phase. Order entry in this phase necessitate trade-offs, but is less costly
or disruptive than in frozen phase.
Liquid phase: is the farthest out on the time horizon. New orders or cancellations
can be entered with ease
Period
Figure 12.12
frozen
(firm or
fixed)
slushy
somewhat
firm
liquid
(open)
The End !

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12-1 Aggregate Planning

12-2 Aggregate Planning

12-3 Aggregate Planning

The Planning Process

Research and Development

Planning tasks and horizon

12-4 Aggregate Planning

Overview of Planning Levels

Short-range plans (Detailed plans)

Intermediate plans (General levels)

12-5 Aggregate Planning

12-6 Aggregate Planning

Production Planning Process

Strategic Capacity Planning

Master Production Scheduling

Weekly Workforce &

12-7 Aggregate Planning

Dealing with the Problem Complexity

Capacity and Aggregate Production Plans

Master Production Scheduling

SKU-level Production Plans

Materials Requirement Planning

Component Production lots and due dates

Shop floor-level Production Control

12-8 Aggregate Planning

12-9 Aggregate Planning

Aggregate Planning Problem

Aggregate Production Plan:

Production Capacity Plan:

12-10 Aggregate Planning

Product Aggregation Schemes

Unit: A fictitious item representing an entire product family.

12-11 Aggregate Planning

Computing the Aggregate Unit

Required labor time

Aggregate unit labor time = (.32)(4.2)+(.21)(4.9)+(.17)(5.1)+(.14)(5.2)+

12-12 Aggregate Planning

Overview of aggregate planning

Aggregate planning begins with a forecast of aggregate

12-13 Aggregate Planning

Aggregate Planning Inputs

12-14 Aggregate Planning

Aggregate Planning Outputs

12-15 Aggregate Planning

Aggregate Planning Strategies

Should inventories be used to absorb changes in demand

12-16 Aggregate Planning

Overview of the Aggregation Problem

12-17 Aggregate Planning

Smoothing. Refers to the costs and disruptions that

12-18 Aggregate Planning

primary component: opportunity cost of investment $s tied

changing size of the work force

Cost of demand exceeding stock on hand. Why should

Other Costs: payroll, overtime, subcontracting,

12-19 Aggregate Planning

The method is (fundamentally) based on notion of

Actual units of production

they are a composite that estimates a tangible input constant

12-20 Aggregate Planning

Aggregate Planning Strategies

Involve demand options: Attempt to alter

12-21 Aggregate Planning

Aggregate Planning Strategies