Intro to CCA and DRR Concepts

25 29 April 2016
Goldland Hotel, Ortigas Center

Relationship between CCA and DRR

Long Term
Climate
Change
Projections

ClimateRelated
Hazards,
including
weather
extremes

Anthropogenic Factors

Geological/
Geophysical
Hazards

 Illustration and description of potential

sectoral impacts of climate change
Supplemental analysis of potential impacts
based on historical experiences

Historical / Observed Climate Trends

Projected Climate Change Variables

Collect and
organize climate
hazards
information

Description of various climate hazards

Description of historical climate statistics and
impacts of past disaster events

Scope the potential

impacts of climate
hazards and
climate change

Collect and
organize climate
information

Steps in CDRA

 Priority decision areas based on the vulnerability and risk maps/

summary tables
Summary of area based technical findings based on assessment
of risks and vulnerabilities
Area prioritization based on acceptable level of risk/vulnerability
Identification of planning implications and policy interventions

Evaluate Risks
and
Vulnerabilities

Quantitative and Qualitative baseline data on area

and element unit exposure

Conduct a
Climate Change
Vulnerability
Assessment

Quantitative and Qualitative analysis of extent of exposure,

sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of population, built and
production properties, critical points, and lifeline utilities
Vulnerability maps indicating the spatial variation on the level of
vulnerabilities of exposed elements
Summary Vulnerability Assessment Tables

Conduct a
Climate Disaster
Risk
Assessment

Quantitative and Qualitative analysis of extent of exposure,

sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of population, built and
production properties, critical points, and lifeline utilities
Risk maps indicating the spatial variation on the level of risk of
exposed elements
Summary Risk Assessment Tables

3
4
5
6

Exposure
Database
Development

Relationship between CCVA and DRA

Harmonize to input to planning

Hazard

Brgy

Sector

Technical Findings
Exposure +
Adaptive
Threat/
Sensitivity/
Capacity
Risk
Vulnerability/

Implications

Bringing CCVA and DRA to Planning

Hazard

Brgy

Sector

Technical Findings
Expo,
Sens/
Vuln

Adaptive
Capacity

Threat/
Risk

Implicati
ons
Programs

Policy Options
Projects Legislation Services Cap Bldg

STEP 5. DISASTER
RISK ASSESSMENT
25 29 April 2016
Goldland Hotel, Ortigas Center

 Identify policy Interventions to reduce risks to acceptable levels

Identify the decision areas and prepare a summary Disaster Risk
Assessment Matrix

7
6

Assign the likelihood of occurrence

Determine exposed elements

Consequence analysis

Risk estimation

Analyze adaptive capacities

 Assign the likelihood of occurrence

Estimate of the period of time a hazard event is likely to

repeat itself, expressed in years (Return period)

In the absence of records, estimation through likely

occurrence of the natural event (e.g. delphi method; refer

to Indicative Likelihood of Occurrence Scores)
Please include other observations as well; do not be

limited by the above.

Indicative Likelihood of Occurrence Scores

Measure of
Likelihood
Frequent
Moderate
Occasional
Improbable
Rare event
Very rare event

Return Period
(in Yrs)

Likelihood
Score

Every 1 3 yrs
Every >3-10 years
Every >10-30 years
Every >30-100 years
Every >100-200 years
Every > 200 yrs

6
5
4
3
2
1

 Determine the exposed elements

Hazard Exposure Estimation (Population)

Residential area to population density = total barangay population /
total estimated residential areas
Estimate exposed area per barangay, per susceptibility level in

hectares (refer to map)

Affected population = Estimated flooded area X residential area to

population density
Proportion (%) of affected population relative to total barangay

population = Affected population / total barangay population

 Determine the exposed elements

Hazard Exposure Estimation (Production Area)

Estimate size of exposed production areas per barangay, per
susceptibility level (has)
Proportion of exposed production area relative to the total

barangay area = exposed production area (has) X total barangay

population
Exposed value = Estimated exposed area X estimated average

annual output per hectare

 Analyze the adaptive capacities/characteristics of the exposed

elements to:
implement the necessary interventions, anticipate, reduce risks and/or

cope, and anticipate potential risks.

Determine the type of risk management and adaptation options in the
form of spatial policy interventions

Highlight important adaptive capacity assessment for the

various exposure units gathered in the exposure database and

include them in the preparation of summary risk assessment
matrix.
Gain deeper understanding of the adaptive capacities through

public consultation.

 Based on the risk maps and risk assessment tables

generated, highlight and identify decision areas (specific site

or an area cluster) or elements.
List down the technical findings by describing the area or

element in terms of the level of risk and the various

contributing factors such as hazard, exposure, vulnerability
(severity of consequence), and level of adaptive capacities.
The technical findings can be derived from the working tables

and used in the risk/vulnerability evaluation to guide the

identification of the implications when risks are not
addressed.

 6.1 Identify the development implications

From the risk and vulnerability evaluation matrix , add implications and the policy

interventions. Expound on the possible future scenario if the LGU adopts a

business as usual strategy given the identified risks and vulnerabilities.
Enumerate the implications which can be statements related to development
issues, concerns and problems which needs to be addressed moving forward

6.2. Identify the various policy interventions

Based on above, identify the possible policy interventions that the LGU should
pursue to address such the various issues. These can be in the form legislationspatial based policies or programs, projects and activities to reduce exposure,
reduce vulnerability and increase adaptive capacity.
Policy interventions should seek to reduce the level of risks to acceptable levels
whenever possible or reduce risks to tolerable levels considering the costs, time
and effort to implement them.

 Using the summary risk assessment matrix for the various exposure units, the

derived level of risks for each exposure unit/area is a good indication of the level of
priority where interventions should be implemented to reduce risks to tolerable or
acceptable levels.
The type of risk management options/interventions ideally seeks to achieve the

reduction of risks that are below the thresholds for declaring a state of calamity for
each exposure type, where the highly unacceptable threshold is based on the
NDDRMC criteria for declaring a state of calamity (through the NDCC
Memorandum Order No 4. series of 1998, items 4a-b, items a. to b.).
LGUs should be guided by the acceptability ratings and threshold levels to guide

land use policy and strategy decisions and ensure that the level of risks is within
acceptable or tolerable levels. The policy interventions come in the form of risk
management options:
risk reduction through elimination/prevention
risk mitigation
risk transfer

Candaba, Pampanga

Guagua, Pampanga

Lubao, Pampanga

Thank you for listening.

I would love to hear back from you.

Cathy Vidar
cgvidar@yahoo.com
0917 6672174 (Globe)
09498835446 (Smart)