History Matching

Calibrating the Dynamic Model

Integrated Reservoir Study

DYNAMIC MODEL
Well/Facilities
Model

Upscaled
Reservoir
Model

Near Wellbore
Performance Models

Preliminary
Dynamic
Model

Projected
Reservoir
Performance

Field
Economic
Model

Calibrated
Dynamic
Model
Optimized
Reservoir
Development
Plan

History Matching
The process of adjusting the reservoir
description until the production and
pressures predicted by the dynamic model
match the historical production and
pressures.

Importance of History Matching

A model must be able to reproduce past
production and pressure performance
before we can use it to predict future
performance with accuracy.
Limitations: Calibrated models may not
reliably predict future performance under
operating conditions that are substantially
different from those used in the calibration.

Plan History Match

Review objectives of integrated study
Define objectives of history match
Determine quality of history match
necessary to meet objectives

Quality of History Match Needed

For low pressure gas reservoirs, match
may need to be within 1-5 psi
For high pressure gas reservoirs,
match within 50 psi may be adequate
In general, the tolerances for the match
should be at least as tight as the
accuracy desired for projections.

Reservoir Data
Collect reservoir data
Review data for consistency and accuracy
Rank available reservoir data according to
uncertainty
Estimate most likely value, expected range
of values

Preliminary Simulation Runs

Grid sensitivity - Is the grid fine enough
to meet the study objectives?
Time step sensitivity - Are the time steps
small enough to capture the reservoir
response of interest?
Parameter sensitivity - What parameters
have the most effect on the answers?

Perform History Match

General guidelines
Wherever possible, use conventional
reservoir engineering methods to get initial
estimates for parameters
Look for parameters which have effects that
are independent of any other unknown
parameters, and match those first
Proceed with the match from gross overall
behavior to detailed behavior of individual
wells

Select Response to be Matched

Fieldwide average reservoir pressure
Fieldwide production rates
Fieldwide GOR, WOR
Well pressures
Well rates
Well GOR, WOR
Arrival times

Select Parameters to Vary to

Obtain Match
History matching can only provide estimates
of reservoir parameters which have an affect
on the reservoir response.
Identify important parameters - those which
are uncertain and which affect the reservoir
response to be matched.
Review results of parameter sensitivity study
to determine which of the uncertain data
items have the most influence on the
behavior being matched.

Apply Classical Reservoir

Engineering Methods
To guide parameter changes while history
matching:
kA p

Use Darcy's law qB

permeability changes
Use

Vp

volume

0.234qB
p wf
ct
t

to estimate

to estimate reservoir pore

Use pressure transient theory

Example 1
Given the following estimates of drainage
area, formation permeability, and altered
zone permeability, perform a history match
using classical reservoir engineering
calculations to guide the match.
Drainage area

95 acres

Permeability

35 md

Altered zone permeability

10 md

Example 1
Solution

Manual History Match - Semilog Graph

for Matching Transient Behavior
4250

Wellbore pressure

4200

4150

4100
Observed
4050

First Trial
S. L. obs
S. L. sim

4000
0.01

0.1

1
Tim e, days

10

100

Manual History Match - Cartesian

Graph for Matching Pore Volume
4300
4200

Wellbore pressure

4100
4000
3900
3800
Observed

3700

First Trial

3600

S. L. Obs

3500

S. L. Sim

3400
3300
0

20

40

60
Tim e, days

80

100

120

Example 3
Solution
Since the varying permeability affects only
the linear portion of the semilog plot, while
varying drainage area affects only the
linear portion of the Cartesian plot, we can
change permeability and drainage area
simultaneously.

 The slope of a semilog plot of wellbore

pressure vs time should be inversely
proportional to the permeability. To get a
new permeability estimate, we calculate
the semilog slopes of the observed and
simulated response:
mobs

4192 4160

8 psi / cycle
4

msim

4112 .4 4001.4

27.75 psi / cycle

4

 We can then obtain a new estimate of

permeability:

k obs msim

k sim mobs
or

k obs

k simmsim 35 27.75

121.4md
mobs
8

 To obtain a new drainage area estimate,

we calculate the slopes of the observed
and simulated response on a Cartesian
graph:
mobs

4182 3745

4.37 psi / day

0 100

msim

4058 3356

7.02 psi / day

0 100

 This
slope
should
be
inversely
proportional to pore volume (or drainage
area). Thus, we can calculate a new
drainage area estimate:
Aobs msim

A sim mobs

or
Aobs

A simmsim 95 7.02

152.6 acres
mobs
4.37

Manual History Match - Matching

Transient Behavior, Trial 2
4250

Wellbore pressure

4200

4150

4100

4050

Observed
Second Trial

4000
0.01

0.1

1
Tim e, days

10

100

Manual History Match - Matching

Reservoir Pore Volume, Trial 2
4300
4200

Wellbore pressure

4100
4000
3900
3800
3700
Observed

3600

Second Trial

3500
3400
3300
0

20

40

60
Tim e, days

80

100

Manual History Match - Matching

Transient Behavior, Trial 3
At this point, we have excellent matches for
permeability and reservoir volume, as shown by the
slopes of the relevant graphs.
Changing the altered zone permeability should cause
a uniform shift in the pressure response.
To estimate the change necessary in altered zone
permeability, we must make another simulation run to
determine its effect on the pressure response.
We choose to make the next run with the altered zone
permeability the same as that of the formation, k a =
121.4 md.

Manual History Match - Matching

Transient Behavior, Trial 3
4300

Wellbore pressure

4250
4200
4150
4100
Observed
4050

Second Trial
Third Trial

4000
0.01

0.1

1
Tim e, days

10

100

Manual History Match - Matching

Reservoir Pore Volume, Trial 3
4300

Wellbore pressure

4200
4100
4000
Observed

3900

Second Trial
Third Trial

3800
3700
0

20

40

60
Tim e, days

80

100

 The total pressure drop across the altered

zone is inversely proportional to the
permeability in the zone. It can be shown
that the additional pressure drop due to a
lower permeability in the altered zone is
proportional to

1 1

ka k

 Thus, we have
1 1

ka k
1 1

ka k

obs

pobs

p sim

sim

or
1 1

ka k

obs

pobs 1 1

p sim k a k

sim

 Therefore,
1

ka

k a obs

obs

pobs 1 1

p sim k a k

1
pobs 1 1

p sim k a k

k
sim

sim

1
k

1
12.41 md
49.1 1
1
1

62.3 10 121.4 121.4

Manual History Match - Final Match,

Semilog Graph
4250

Wellbore pressure

4200

4150

4100

4050

Observed
Final Match

4000
0.01

0.1

1
Tim e, days

10

100

Manual History Match - Final Match,

Cartesian Graph
4250
4200

Wellbore pressure

4150
4100
4050
4000
3950
Observed

3900

Final Match

3850
3800
3750
0

20

40

60
Tim e, days

80

100

Match Gross Reservoir Behavior

The first step in a history match is to match
the overall gross reservoir behavior.
During this phase, the overall reservoir
volume and the gross distributions of
permeability and porosity will be determined.
Often, this phase of a study can be conducted
using a coarse grid model, providing
substantial savings in engineering and
computer time.

Match Average Pressure Levels

Specify total reservoir production rate for
each well.
Vary reservoir volume, total compressibility,
aquifer storativity and transmissibility to
obtain match.
Match overall reservoir average pressure.
Restrict the match to primary production
It may be helpful to match only that
production occurring prior to formation of
free gas in the reservoir.

Match Pressure Gradients to

Establish Flow Patterns
Vary interwell permeability and net pay to
obtain match
Match reservoir pressure gradients
In areas experiencing pseudosteady state
flow, use Darcy's law to estimate changes
in permeability necessary to obtain match:

kA p
qB

Review Pressure Match

Before proceeding with the match, the
pressure match must be reviewed to
ensure that the correct amount of fluids
are being produced from the model.

Match Contact Movements and Overall

GOR, WOR, and WGR Performance
Vary permeability stratification
Vary area pseudorelative permeabilities

Match Detailed Reservoir Behavior

After matching the overall gross reservoir
behavior, the next step is to match more
detailed reservoir behavior.
During this phase, the distributions of
permeability and porosity will be refined.
If a coarse grid was used to match the
gross reservoir behavior, it may be
necessary to develop a fine grid model at
this point.

Match Regional Performance

Match pressures and pressure gradients
by varying permeability
Match GOR, WOR, WGR by varying area
pseudorelative
permeabilities
or
permeability stratification

Match Individual Well Performance

Change well PI to match flowing pressures
(static pressures should be matched while
matching regional behavior)
Change well pseudorelative permeability
curves to match well GOR, WOR, WGR

Automatic History Matching

Automatic history matching is the process
of automating the matching process.
The engineer specifies the parameters to
vary to obtain a match, and the response
to be matched.
A computer program is then given the task
of finding the values of the match
parameters which give the best history
match.

When to Use Automatic History

Matching
To refine match obtained by manual history
matching
After identifying the most important unknown
parameters
Automatic history matching methods work
better (and run faster) when given a smaller
number of parameters to match
Do not include parameters which have little or
no effect on the desired response. Some
methods may fail entirely for underdetermined
problems

When to Use Automatic History

Matching
Always monitor the progress of automatic
history matching methods
Terminate the match if:
The sum of squared errors is not
decreasing
The parameter estimates
changing significantly

are

not