GREENHOUSE EFFECT,

CARBON CYCLE & RISING

TEMPERATURES

THE QUESTION OF THE CENTURY:

WHY THE GLOBAL TEMPERATURE
RISE?
Natural?
OR
Humancaused?

This issue has been debated hotly for years

THE ANSWER

In 2007, the worlds climate scientists combined to

produce the single most comprehensive and
authoritative research summary on climate change:
The Fourth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

The IPCC report summarized all scientific data on

climate change, future predictions, and possible impacts
and concluded:

.global warming is very likely manmade (or anthropogenic).

SUMMARY
Virtually all climate researchers agree that global
climate is changing
Virtually all climate researchers agree that human
fossil fuel use plays a large role in driving climate
change.
In order to understand how fossil fuel is causing
climate change, one must understand:

1.

The Greenhouse Effect

2.

Greenhouse Gasses

3.

Disruption of the Carbon Cycle

Lets take a closer look.

THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT, CARBON

CYCLE & RISING TEMPERATURES
I.

The Greenhouse Effect

A.
B.

II.

Carbon Cycle

A.
B.

III.

Carbon sources & sinks

Long-term records of carbon dioxide

Rising Temperatures

A.
B.

IV.

Earths Energy Balance

Greenhouse Gases

Recent & Long-term Temperatures Trends

Datasets & Proxy Records

Modeling Climate Change

A.
B.
C.

The Earth As a System

Forward & Negative Feedback Loops
A closer look at the role of water vapor

PART I:
GREENHOUSE EFFECT

THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT-OVERVIEW

Definition
Radiation: energy
that is
propagated in the
form of
electromagnetic
waves.

Vocabulary in the graphic:

1) Incoming solar energy is called solar radiation
2) Solar radiation warms the earth
3) The warmed earth radiates heat. However, this is
not called heat, but rather in scientific terms it is
energy. The correct term is infrared radiation
4) The atmospheric blanket is gas molecules in the

EARTHS ENERGY BALANCE

incoming
radiation

Solar energy reaches the Earths surface

The earth surface absorbs the energy and warms up

EARTHS ENERGY BALANCE

Incoming
solar
radiation

greenhouse
gases

infrared radiation (IR)

The warm earth surface radiates infrared radiation (IR)

Greenhouse gases absorb IR leaving the surface

EARTHS ENERGY BALANCE

Incoming
solar
radiation

greenhouse
gases

infrared radiation
Gases are energized, then emit more radiation (IR)

EARTHS ENERGY BALANCE

Incoming
solar
radiation

greenhouse
gases

infrared radiation

Some of this IR returns to the earth surface, warming

it further

EARTHS ENERGY BALANCE

Incoming
solar
radiation

greenhouse
gases

infrared radiation

This process is what we call the GREENHOUSE EFFECT!

GREENHOUSE GASES

Obviously, those greenhouse gases play an

important role in trapping the infrared radiation.
What are they?

In order of abundance:
1.Water vapor (H2O)
2.Carbon Dioxide (CO2)
3.Methane (CH4)
4.Nitrous Oxide (N2O )
5.Ozone (O3)

GREENHOUSE GASES
1. The atmosphere is a layer of gaseous materials,
some of which interact with infrared radiation and
absorb and re-radiate that energy
2. The greenhouse gases have been in the
atmosphere a long time (billions of years). They
maintain the planets global temperature in a range
that allowed our life forms to evolve
3. If they have always been there, and the
greenhouse effect is natural, then why do we now
hear about it causing the earths temperature to
rise?
4. Answer?
The amount of greenhouse gases in the
atmosphere is increasing

GREENHOUSE GASES
Greenhouse Gas Increases in the last 100 years
Greenhouse

Concentration

Concentration

Percent

Anthropogenic

Gas

1800s

1990s

Increase

Sources
burning fossil
fuels;
deforestation
agriculture; fuel
leakage
refrigerants

CO2

280 ppm

360 ppm

29%

CH4

0.95 ppm

1.7 ppm

79%

CFCs

0.7 ppb

----

N2O

250 ppb

310 ppb

24%

O3

15 ppb

20-30 ppb

33-100%

agriculture;
combustion
urban pollution

GREENHOUSE GASES
Things to Know

The biggest problem is

increasing CO2, carbon
dioxide.
CH4, Methane, is also
increasing and interacts
with IR and has more
global warming potential
than CO2

Water vapor

Water in the atmosphere is

in the gas or vapor form.
(In fact if it becomes liquid
form then it falls out of the
atmosphere.. as..?)
Water vapor also traps
heat and is a GG
But - Its a complicated
story because vapor as
clouds may cool the earth

Long-term Records of C02

Long-term proxy
records show
that the earths
temperature
varied
considerably
over the past
150,000 years
NOTICE!:
1) THE CO2-TEMP CORRELATION. IS IT CAUSE-EFFECT?
2) THE RATE AND DEGREE OF CHANGE OF C02 IN THE
PAST 200 YEARS. HOW DOES IT COMPARE TO THE PAST
150,000 YEARS?

THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT:

STUDENT HANDOUT #1

PART II:
CARBON CYCLE

INTRODUCTION TO CARBON
CYCLING

This module will introduce you to the global carbon cycle.

An important idea in this section is that the atmosphere, oceans
and land are all connected through the cycling of elements such
as carbon.
The earth is one system and everything that happens on our
planet becomes part of the interactions between air, water, land
and life.
The global carbon cycle has been disrupted and is causing climate
change.

THE CARBON CYCLE: WHAT IS

CARBON?

Carbon is an element. C
It can bond with oxygen and form Carbon Dioxide
or CO2. CO2 is found in the atmosphere (and the
air around us).
C can dissolve in water and bond with other
molecules to form liquid compounds such as
carbonic acid.
C also bonds with other carbon molecules to form
numerous compounds, for example sugars and
carbohydrates, that are a part of all living
organisms.

THE CARBON CYCLE: WHAT IS

CARBON?

Two important points:

1) Carbon can be in the form of a gas (in the atmosphere), a liquid

(in oceans) and a solid (in all living things on land, and in some
rock formations).

2) Carbon forms the backbone of the biology of all life on earth.

All plants and animals on land and in the water use carbon as a
basic building block. To date, no life has been observed that is not
carbon-based.
a
ad
h
rek life
T
r
a
d
( St -base a
a
d
silic calle
form a)
t
hor

THE CARBON CYCLE: WHAT IS A

CYCLE?

The carbon cycle: what does cycle mean?

A

cycle has no distinct beginning and end

This is a line.
This is a linear process.

This is a cycle.
It is a circular pathway and has
no clear start and finish.

is a part of the biogeochemical cycling of elements

that interconnects the land, the air, and the waters

Carbon

Bio living or biotic elements

Geo earth, geology, soils
Chemical molecules and compounds

The Carbon Cycle: What is a cycle? When you

think of the earth, think of it as a system.
The earth is a system in which materials, suchas
carbon and water, continuously cycle. Keep this
image in mind.
Or, do you know another image that means interconnectedness to you?

THE CARBON CYCLE

Carbon molecules cycle, meaning that they move
through the land, the air, and the water.
Here is one example of a trip that a carbon molecule
may take:

A tree in a forest is made of carbon (C ). When it burns, some C is

converted/released as carbon dioxide (CO2). This CO2 goes into the
atmosphere and travels through the air currents. A corn plant then
takes up that CO2 in photosynthesis and uses it to make
carbohydrates that go into a corn kernel. The corn is harvested and
made into breakfast cereal that you eat - and that C is now a part
of you.

Carbon illustrates the interconnection of all organisms on earth,

and their connection to the atmosphere and waters of the planet .

CARBON CYCLING ON THE LAND:

PLANTS AND SOIL

Carbon moves in and

out of plants and soil as
CO2
Photosynthesis in plant
leaves
Takes in CO2
CO2 is food for plants

Respiration in plant
leaves, roots, and soil

Releases CO2
CO2 is produced in
metabolism and the extra
is released

Soils have microbes that

decompose plant material when it
falls to the ground. Microbes are
alive and they respire as part of
their metabolism.

CARBON CYCLING IN PLANTS AND SOIL

A closer look at photosynthesis..

CARBON CYCLING ON THE LAND:

PLANTS AND SOIL
Just to be sure you understand this..
Plants run the carbon cycle on land.
Respiration
Photosynthesis
CO2 + O2

CO2 +
Water +
Sunlight

Some CO2 is lost

from the plant in
the process of
metabolism

Make C-rich
sugars and
carbohydrate
s to feed
themselves
and grow

Grow and
store C in
the plant

Die, decay
and store
C in soil

CAN YOU DRAW THE PLANT AND SOIL C

CYCLE ?

For practice - draw a simple diagram of the carbon cycle in a forest.

Where is CO2 moving into and out of the atmosphere? Draw arrows
showing how CO2 cycles between the atmosphere, plants, and soil.

Leaves take in CO2 from the air and use it for photosynthesis
All plant parts leaves, wood, even roots respire CO2 back out to
the air
Also, as plants decay, soil microbes respire CO2 into the air

Where is carbon stored? Label where Carbon is stored as plant material

or in soils.
Carbon is in wood, leaves, flowers, all plant parts
Carbon is belowground in the roots
Carbon is in the soil as organic matter the decaying plant parts

CARBON CYCLING IN THE OCEAN

The oceans play a vital

role in the global
carbon cycle
CO2 mixes in the ocean
and cycles between the
ocean surface and the
atmosphere
CO2 is stored in the
ocean waters and in
sediments of the deep
ocean floor

CO2 mixing

Dissolved carbon
in ocean water
Calcium carbonate
in ocean floor

Carbon is stored in the ocean as it

dissolves in sea water, and it is stored
when it forms sedimentary rock in the
deep ocean floor

CAN YOU DRAW THE GLOBAL C CYCLE

FOR LAND AND OCEANS ?

Go back to the simple drawing you did of the carbon cycle on land in a forest.
Now add carbon cycling of the ocean to the drawing.
Where is CO2 moving into and out of the atmosphere? ? Draw arrows showing
how CO2 cycles between the atmosphere, plants, and soil. Draw arrows showing
how CO2 cycles between the atmosphere and ocean.
Where is carbon stored? Label where carbon is stored as plant material or in
soils. Also label the carbon stored in seawater and in the ocean floor.

IMPORTANT: The movement of C in and out of the atmosphere as CO2 is called

a flux. Fluxes are shown by arrows in a diagram. When C is stored it is just
labeled as carbon or else it is shown in a box in a diagram.

Student Handout #2 graphic of the carbon cycle. Compare your drawing and
check to see if your drawing has the correct ideas.

THE GLOBAL CARBON CYCLE

Which exchanges of CO2

with the atmosphere
have always been a
part of the global
carbon cycling system
and are in your
drawing?
Which are not in your
drawing? These are
due to human
activities!

(Student Handout #2 here

Intro to C cycling for use in
class with next 3 slides)

Terrestrial Oceans

DISRUPTION OF THE NATURAL

GLOBAL CARBON CYCLE

The two human activities that add the most CO2 to the
atmosphere are:

Extracting the very old,

buried C that is oil, coal
and natural gas.
Burning it for energy
releases CO2.

Land clearing and

deforestation of tropical
forests. The slash piles are
burned and release CO2

THE GLOBAL CARBON CYCLE

Ok one more
time: Where is
carbon?

1)Atmosphere

2) Ocean

3) Land

And

buried deep in
the earth as
decayed plant
material from
long ago.... Fossil
Fuels such as
coal, oil and gas

DO YOU GET THE CONCEPT?

Take a minute and answer these questions:

What is a possible connection between a car driving down the

road and the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere. Between a
tree growing in a forest and the amount of CO2 in the
atmosphere?

CO2

CO
2

CO2

CARBON CYCLING: IMPORTANT!!!

THE AMOUNT OF CO2 IN THE
ATMOSPHERE IS INCREASING

Since the 1970s scientists

have been measuring the
concentration of CO2 in
the atmosphere at a tower
in Mauna Loa, Hawaii.
Concentration is
measured in ppm (parts
per million).
CO2 has increased from an
average of about 325 ppm
in 1970 to an average of
about 385 ppm in 2008
(Student Handout #3
here Increasing
atmospheric CO2 - for
use in class with next 2
slides)

CARBON CYCLING: THE AMOUNT OF

CO2 IN THE ATMOSPHERE IS
INCREASING
How can scientists know what the atmospheric concentration of CO

was
before they had the Mauna Loa tower?. They can estimate CO2 using ice
cores pulled from ice sheets in Antarctica and Greenland.
This is called a proxy record
Measurements from Antarctic ice cores show that atmospheric CO2
concentrations stayed between about 200 and 290 ppm during the
preceding 400,000 years.

Long-term records of temperature & C02

Long-term proxy
records show
that the earths
temperature
varied
considerably
over the past
150,000 years
NOTICE:
1) THE CO2-TEMP CORRELATION. IS IT CAUSE-EFFECT?
2) THE RATE AND DEGREE OF CHANGE OF C02 IN THE
PAST 200 YEARS. HOW DOES IT COMPARE TO THE PAST
150,000 YEARS?

2000-2006

fossil fuel
emissions
Source

7.6

deforestation

Sink

CO2 flux (Pg C y-1)

Perturbation of Global Carbon Budget (1850-2006)

atmospheric
CO2
land
ocean
Time (y)
Le Qur, unpublished; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS

1.5
4.1
2.8
2.2

Source: Anthropogenic C Emissions: Land Use

Change
Carbon Emissions from Tropical Deforestation

2000-2006
1.5 Pg C y-1

1.60

Africa

1.40

Latin America

1.20

S. & SE Asia

(16% total emissions)

SUM

1.00
0.80
0.60
0.40

Houghton, unpublished

2000

1990

1980

1970

1960

1950

1940

1930

1920

1910

1900

1890

1880

1870

0.00

1860

0.20
1850

Pg C yr-1

1.80

Source: Anthropogenic C Emissions: Fossil Fuel

2006 Fossil Fuel: 8.4 Pg C
[2006-Total Anthrop. Emissions:8.4+1.5 = 9.9 Pg]

1850

1870

1890

1910

1930

1950

1970

1990

1990 - 1999: 1.3% y-1

2000 - 2006: 3.3% y-1
Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS; Canadell et al 2007, PNAS

2010

Partition of Anthropogenic Carbon Emissions into Sinks

[2000-2006]

45% of all CO2 emissions accumulated in the atmosphere

Atmosphere

The Airborne Fraction

The fraction of the annual
anthropogenic emissions that
remains in the atmosphere

55% were removed by natural sinks

Ocean removes _ 24%

Land removes _ 30%

Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS

Carbon Intensity and the Global Economy

Carbon intensity
(KgC/US$)

Photo: CSIRO

Kg Carbon Emitted
to Produce 1 $ of Wealth

1960

1970

Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS

1980

1990

2000

Drivers of Anthropogenic Emissions

Population growth & Carbon Intensity
1.5

Factor (relative to 1990)

1.4

1.5

World

1.4

1.3

1.3

1.2

1.2

1.1

1.1

0.9

0.9

0.8

FEmissions
(emissions)
PPopulation
(population)
= per capita GDP
gWealth
= G/P
intensity of GDP
hCarbon
= F/G

0.7
0.6
0.5
1980

1985

1990

Raupach et al 2007, PNAS

1995

2000

0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
2005
1980

The Efficiency of Natural Sinks: Land and Ocean Fractions

Land

Ocean

Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS

Credit: N.Metzl, August 2000, oceanographic cruise OISO-5

Causes of the Declined in the Efficiency of the Ocean Sink

Part of the decline is attributed to up

to a 30% decrease in the efficiency of
the Southern Ocean sink over the
last 20 years.

This sink removes annually 0.7 Pg of

anthropogenic carbon.

The decline is attributed to the

strengthening of the winds around
Antarctica which enhances ventilation
of natural carbon-rich deep waters.

The strengthening of the winds is

attributed to global warming and the
ozone hole.

Le Qur et al. 2007, Science

PART III:
RISING TEMPERATURES
Recent & Long-term Temperature Trends
Datasets & Proxy Records

RISING TEMPERATURE
The earths temperature has increased in the
last 200 years - this is a scientific fact.
The temperature increase of the last 200 years
has been measured.
Temperature change is not the same all over the
world. In fact, some places are the same or
cooler, although most places are warmer. Its the
global average thats increased.

Here is the important point:

The globally averaged earth surface temperature
has increased, it has increased in the last 200
years, and the increase was measured by
weather instruments.

WHAT IS KNOWNTHE EARTH IS

WARMING
Warming of the climate
system is unequivocal,
as is now evident from
observations of
increases in global
average air and ocean
temperatures,
widespread melting of
snow and ice and
rising global average
sea level.
IPCC report 2007, synthesis, p. 30

IPCC 2007 REPORT

Eleven of the last twelve years (19952006) rank
among the 12 warmest years in the instrumental
record of global surface temperature (since 1850).
The linear warming trend over the last 50 years
(0.13C [0.10C to 0.16C] per decade) is nearly
twice that for the last 100 years.
The total temperature increase from 18501899
to 20012005 is 0.76C [0.57C to 0.95C].

Urban heat island effects are real but local, and have a negligible influence (less
than 0.006C per decade over land and zero over the oceans) on these values.

RISING TEMPERATURE

Student Handout #4: go over handout of this data

RISING TEMPERATURE
What about longer than 200
years?

Temperature
Increase

200 years
Measured
Scientific
Fact

What about the last 2000 years?

Or 200,000 years?
How do we determine this?
Scientists use proxy methods to
estimate temperature and carbon
dioxide concentrations

PROXY RECORDS: ICE CORES

Ice caps and glaciers

accumulated over thousands
or millions of years.
They contain bubbles of gas
preserved from the time
when each layer formed.
Scientists drill cores and
analyze the gas bubbles in
each layer to see what the
atmosphere was like at that
time.
Figure 12.5

PROXY RECORDS: POLLEN

ANALYSIS

Scientists also drill

cores into the
sediments of ancient
lake beds.
By identifying types of
pollen grains in each
layer, they can tell
what types of plants
were growing there at
the time.

PROXY RECORDS: PACKRAT MIDDENS

White-throated woodrat

A giant 28,000+
year-old packrat
midden under an
overhang at Capitol
Reef National Park,
Utah. Orange
notebook is 7" X 4".

Fossil packrat (or woodrat) middens provide

information on past environments because they
are a rich source of debris collected by packrats
in the past.

Photo by Ken Cole

The packrat often urinates on its garbage pile, marking its territory. When this
urine crystallizes, it acts as a glue holding the entire garbage pile together. Fossil
debris held within the midden becomes mummified, preserving it indefinitely.
Note: Photos & text on this slide are from:
http://cpluhna.nau.edu/Tools/packrat_middens.htm

For information on other tools used to reconstruct past climate, see

http://cpluhna.nau.edu/Tools/tools.htm

CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE IPCC

REPORT

Proxy indicators of temperature (from pollen, ice cores,

etc.) were reviewed to establish ancient temperatures.
These data (BLUE) overlapped with the direct temperature
measurements (RED). (Gray shows statistical uncertainty.)

PART IV:
MODELING CLIMATE
CHANGE
Earth as a System

Forward and Negative Feedback Loops

STUDYING CLIMATE CHANGE:

MODELING
To

predict what will happen to climate in the

future, scientists use climate models:

Computer

simulations that use known

behavior of past climate to analyze how climate
should behave as variables are changed.

Coupled

general circulation models

(CGCMs) are models that combine, or couple,
the effects of both atmosphere and ocean.

EARTHS ENVIRONMENTAL
SYSTEMS
Our planet consists of many complex, large-scale,
interacting systems.
System

= a network of relationships among a group of

parts, elements, or components that interact with and
influence one another through the exchange of energy,
matter, and/or information
Feedback

loop = a circular process whereby a

systems output serves as input to that same system.

FEEDBACK LOOPS: NEGATIVE

FEEDBACK
a negative feedback loop, output acts as input that
moves the system in the opposite direction.
This compensation stabilizes the system
In

NEGATIVE FEEDBACK LOOPS

1. Increase oceanic
algae = more
absorption
2. Increase plant
growth = more
absorption
3. More polar snow
= more
reflectance
4. More clouds =
more reflectance

FEEDBACK LOOPS: POSITIVE

FEEDBACK
a positive
feedback loop,
output acts as
input that moves
the system
further in the
same direction.
This
magnification of
effects
destabilizes the
system.
In

POSITIVE FEEDBACK LOOPS

5. More clouds =
more greenhouse
effect
6. Melting
permafrost =
more methane
7. Less snow/ice =
less reflectance
8. More warmth =
more air
conditioning

GREENHOUSE GASES
WATER VAPOR FEEDBACK
Atmospheric
H2O

Surface
temperature

(+
)

Greenhouse
effect

Positive feedback loop

As the earth warms, there is an increase in

water vapor, increase in warming, increase in
water vapor, increase in warming

GREENHOUSE GASES
WHAT ABOUT CLOUDS?
Most scientists predict that cloudiness will
increase as the climate warms. But, what
do more clouds do to the earths
temperature?
1. Increase temperature because water
vapor traps heat? A positive feedback
2. Decrease temperature by shielding the
earth from incoming solar radiation. A
negative feedback.
3. Hard to know. Plus depends on the

WHAT ABOUT CLOUDS?

Less reflection
10 km

IR
Thin, High clouds could warm
the earths temperature by
trapping IR

Cirrus clouds
(Thin)
More reflection

Altitude
Cumulus/stratus clouds
(Thicker)

Fat, low clouds could cool

the earths temperature by
blocking incoming radiation

References

Canadell JG, Corinne Le Qur, Michael R. Raupach, Christopher B. Field, Erik T. Buitehuis,
Philippe Ciais, Thomas J. Conway, NP Gillett, RA Houghton, Gregg Marland (2007) PNAS.

Canadell JG, Pataki D, Gifford R, Houghton RA, Lou Y, Raupach MR, Smith P, Steffen W
(2007) in Terrestrial Ecosystems in a Changing World, eds Canadell JG, Pataki D, Pitelka L
(IGBP Series. Springer-Verlag, Berlin Heidelberg), pp 59-78.

Raupach MR, Marland G, Ciais P, Le Qur C, Canadell JG, Klepper G, Field CB, PNAS
(2007) 104: 10288-10293.

Le Qur C, Rdenbeck C, Buitenhuis ET, Thomas J, Conway TJ, Langenfelds R, Gomez A,

Labuschagne C, Ramonet M, Nakazawa T, Metzl N, et al. (2007) Science 316:1735-1738.