2011 10

11

16

4.1
4.2
4.3
4.4

18
41
51
64

66
68
88

 41
4.5

25

~4.5 ~1
~2.5
~1

16

8
2.5
5.5

McKinsey & Company

| 3

 100

Johnson Yeh

Allen Fung
Eoin Daly

) ,

McKinsey & Company

| 4

11

16

4.1
4.2
4.3
4.4

18
41
51
64

66
68
88

GDP

McKinsey & Company

| 6

-18%

2005-10

2010-20

GDP

2009 564
50%
1500
80-90

McKinsey & Company

| 7

2009

53%

GDP
2010

9510

1202

394

16%

17%

2009

82%
45%
25%

McKinsey & Company

| 8

2010 GDP

7,000
2007 10.28%

2010
2697
1/3
1/7

2011 6

>80%

2010 3000
6000

1
5000
2011 1
200

2011
40
McKinsey & Company

| 9

80

McKinsey & Company

| 10

11

16

4.1
4.2
4.3
4.4

18
41
51
64

66
68
88

McKinsey & Company

McKinsey & Company

McKinsey & Company

2020

1
1-2

2-3

2-3

50%
1
GDP
3%2
GDP
~25

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8

100% 80%
100%
100%
GDP 0.44
3
ISO14000
30 %

65%
4

20% 5
80%5
1
6
; 75.5%

( )

~26
8

5 3-5
1000

1
1 2

59.4%
2015 GDP
2.2% 2.3% 2010 3.1% 2010 3.4%
7
GDP 0.44 1.2 36.7%

2011 9

2010 ~2250 / 2020 ~26

2011 9

McKinsey & Company

11

16

4.1
4.2
4.3
4.4

18
41
51
64

66
68
88

2012

McKinsey & Company

11

16

4.1
4.2
4.3
4.4

18
41
51
64

66
68
88

McKinsey & Company

 - - -
- - -

McKinsey & Company

2015 200-250

2015 100

2015

150-200

McKinsey & Company

GW

+17% p.a.

2010-2020
%

150

65

90

26

36

2009

2010

13
2015

2020

2004 100%

17%

200GW

McKinsey & Company

1897

Hitachi America

Zolteck

13000
4000

1974

McKinsey & Company

McKinsey & Company

| 24

20-30
2009-2030
20-30

2020
10,000
2009-2020

15-25

IT

10%
15%

40%

20%

2010
5

15%

ABB

McKinsey & Company

220 20
5

McKinsey & Company

IT/

McKinsey & Company

| 27

1
2020 10-15%

/
300

290-350

250
200

130-200

150
100
50
0

200 3

40-50
3-5
2010

2015

~5%

2020

2025

10-15%

20-25%

5%

15%

20%

95%

85%

80%

1 3%

McKinsey & Company

McKinsey & Company

| 29

2015 30-50

300

McKinsey & Company

30%

2006-2010

8.042

5.619

+30% p.a.

2006
06
107
1

07

08

09

2010

272

486

549

743

1.846

2.423

2.096
1.214

1.705

1.384
1.144

1.171
680

2010 %

43
27
5 4 3
5
IT
11

1 20%
CV source

McKinsey & Company

13

50

QDII

10

McKinsey & Company

2015 150~200

2015 50~70 1000

LED

2015 100~150

McKinsey & Company

TDC, Taiwan Design Center

10 2011

2011

60

McKinsey & Company

KPCB
Kleiner Perkins 1

KPCB

KPCB

Google Ebay
Sun

59%

29%

11%

2
1%

1 2011 7 22

McKinsey & Company

(RFID

3G(4G)

3G/4G

IPTV

IPV6

IP

McKinsey & Company

CRO

40% 50%%

CSO

25%

CMO

8%

McKinsey & Company

2015 6

2
ICE

LED

2020 6

10

11

12

5-10

McKinsey & Company

2020 (GDP)

~1000 ~15

1 2020

GDP, 2020

30%

43%
200-220

25%
100-120 50-60

2%

70-80

20-30

~15

~1000

200-220
120-130 50-60

2,100
()

120-130

1,640

2,070

370

1,500

7,410

1,080

570

370

~8

~7

17,110

2020 GDP 45%-50%

2020 GDP 50%-55%
2020
1 41

McKinsey & Company

McKinsey & Company

11

16

4.1
4.2
4.3
4.4

18
41
51
64

66
68
88

McKinsey & Company

| 42

McKinsey & Company

McKinsey & Company

200

18

10-15
4
80%

2007

4.65

48

McKinsey & Company

10

McKinsey & Company

90

1

2010
6

(Four
Seasons Resort

2011

1 2003,23

McKinsey & Company

2.0

1.0

2000

3.0

McKinsey & Company

LED

20%

80%


65%

McKinsey & Company

80 4

7.5

McKinsey & Company

11

16

4.1
4.2
4.3
4.4

18
41
51
64

66
68
88


GDP( )

70,000

50,000

30,000

10,000
0
1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005 2008

1 2008 ( ) GDP 2007 2009

CEIC Global Insights

McKinsey & Company

| 52

9 53 38

10
2% 6%
48%

2.5
32% 16%

5 12,000

McKinsey & Company

| 53

McKinsey & Company

| 54

30 40

/ /

McKinsey & Company

| 55

10 100

McKinsey & Company

| 56

2004 , 50
, 50
400

,
,

(GPPN)

ViewsWire

40,116
7,716
4,480

2,745

1,812

1,247

727

McKinsey & Company

| 57

 25 40

530

2006-2010

2010

4 530 1 530 400

10000

876 25

3500 (2005
500 )

10
3000
2011 6

McKinsey & Company

| 58

30 40

NEHS)
:

; 106 3000

:
,

(40%
)
10 7

380
10

8500

330

McKinsey & Company

| 59

1997

1997
2007
15
2003 8

80 20062010

(INSEAD)

2015
15

Raffles
SCAD1

1 Savannah College of Art and Design

McKinsey & Company

| 60

14

McKinsey & Company

| 61

16397 ,
12000 0.2%

28%

>50%)
4000
0.02%

13%

80

60%
424
90%

1.2
1.8
40

2004 427
( 100 )

7574
9

1.6

500:1)

3.7

McKinsey & Company

| 62

180

20

160

35

19

15

~16
5000

McKinsey & Company

| 63

11

16

4.1
4.2
4.3
4.4

18
41
51
64

66
68
88

2012

LED

1 2
McKinsey & Company

11

16

4.1
4.2
4.3
4.4

18
41
51
64

66
68
88

7
4

6
5

/ /

McKinsey & Company

11

16

4.1
4.2
4.3
4.4

18
41
51
64

66
68
88

McKinsey & Company

-
-

41
20.4

~3,6003,900 2.4-2.6

2015
GDP 7-13% 5
?

McKinsey & Company

2.5

McKinsey & Company

20.6
2.4

5.9
7.0

1 7.5
;

100%

23%

27%

1.0

4%

1.0

4%

42%

McKinsey & Company

, 7
10

10

2011 12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19 2020

1
-20 -22 -8 -6 -2 26 40 58 68 91

201112 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2020

-16 -11

11
9 17 26 61 88 8 141 178

340

/


1
;

McKinsey & Company

340

100%= 340

42

2
70% 30%

10 1
15%

20

10

16

8
1

McKinsey & Company

340

100%= 340

BT/BOT
PE

BT/BOT

: BT/BOT

15-20%

3-10
6.2%

20%
10%

10 3

McKinsey & Company |

42

20
10
16

41

18

2.4

4.4

2.0

0.3

10.0
10.0

500

1.3

McKinsey & Company

1-3

McKinsey & Company

| 77

41

20.6
2.4

4.9
4.9

100%

27%

27%

1.0

6%

0.5

3%

37%

McKinsey & Company

41

, 6
10

10

2011 12

13

1
-8 -8 -2

14

15

16

17

18

19 2020

4 31 38 50 53 58

2011 12

1
-5

13

14

15

16

17

18

19 2020

10 11 12
3 15 24 32 66 79 0 2 7

220

/


1
;

McKinsey & Company

41

220

100%= 220

45

14

25

13

2
70% 30%

10 1
15%

McKinsey & Company

41

220

100%= 220

BT/BOT

: BT/BOT

15-20%

3-10
6.2%

20%
10%

10 3

McKinsey & Company |

45

14

25

13

BT/BOT
PE

McKinsey & Company

GDP

GDP

5
GDP

McKinsey & Company

2012

McKinsey & Company

McKinsey & Company

2011
2012

9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

0.
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.

McKinsey & Company

5-10

2010-15 GDP ~5.5% 2015-20

~6%

McKinsey & Company

11

16

4.1
4.2
4.3
4.4

18
41
51
64

66
68
88

2004 100%

1986

04-09
GW

25.8

+102% p.a.

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2.0

3.0

5.4

10.7

18.2

30.5

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.8

1.5

3.0

McKinsey & Company

| 90

2006 1 1
MMS 2010
>5 GW
3% 2020 8%

2009
12

2003 5

2005-09 70%

70%

3 3
8.5%
2008 240

2009 8 1
0.51, 0.54, 0.58, 0.61 /

15

McKinsey & Company

| 91

II

2003
2003
2004
2004
2004
2005
2005
2005
2006
2006
2006
2007
2007
2007
2007

100 MW
100 MW
150 MW
400 MW
200 MW
200 MW
200 MW
100 MW
600 MW
200 MW
200 MW
300 MW
300 MW
150 MW
4000 MW

0.4365
0.5013
0.519
0.509
0.382
0.4877
0.4877
0.4616
0.4058
0.4656
0.5006
0.468
0.5216
0.551
0.5206

1
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.

CMEITC CHECC

PPA
PPA
2-3

2003 04

05

06 2007

2004 05

06

07 2008

04-08

100 MW

McKinsey & Company

| 92

2009 20

2009 20

2009

2009

2,600

1,740

1,645

1,230

12.6

11.9

8.9

768

5.6

2009

13803.21
MW

749

5.4

GE

323

2.3

85%

293

2.1

276

2.0

274

2.0

261

1.9

198

1.4

CCWE

164

1.2

138

1.0

137

1.0

854

6.2

798

5.8

4.3

590

2.9

400

18.8

320

2.3

310

2.2

310

2.2

296

2.1

3,495
2,722
2,036

609
454

25.3
19.7
14.7

4.4
3.3

160

1.2

152

1.1

149

1.1

144

1.0

FIDC

130

0.9

SE

129

0.9

127

0.9

102

0.7

119

0.9

100

0.7

111

0.8

11.9

1,646

551

McKinsey & Company

| 93

2020
100GW

GW

2010-2020

150 %
65
90

2020 150 GW
7

2015 90 GW
2020 150 GW
2010 4
27

2008 12
30

2009

26

36

2009

2010

13
2015

2020

35.65GW
20GW
20GW
30GW
10GW
10GW 7GW

23GW
McKinsey & Company

| 94

200GW

2380GW 1
300 / 2
2000

200GW
1
300 / 2

1 50 3 5-25m 3
2009 12

McKinsey & Company

| 95

4-10

>3

McKinsey & Company

| 96

102

30

SGEPEC

2007 11

2008 210
1.2

34 3

1.5
5

Darwind 5

3.6
2010

McKinsey & Company

| 97

2015
3
2020 7

2015
4.6
2020
9.45

2015
0.7
2020
1.55

2015
1.5
2020 3.7

2015
0.4
2020 1.1

2010 3
10
210
1.1

2010 5

2010 5

102
2010 3

500

2010
10

2015

5GW 2020
30GW

McKinsey & Company

| 98

2008 >220

3.1

30%

15.5
4.7

28.2

81.9

104.8

25.5

McKinsey & Company

| 99

9588.5

102
48
1500
800
500
200
200
300
6.5
300
100.5
102
100
400
300
200
200
200
49.5
2000
200
1250
30
500

McKinsey & Company

| 100

2010 1 22

50%

1GW 2010
5 18 300
300 200
200
2010 9 10
9
CHECC

0.978
/
1
/

50%

0.38
0.55 /

03 09

70%

McKinsey & Company

| 101

10~30%

10~20%

5~15%

10~15%

McKinsey & Company

| 102

McKinsey & Company

| 103

2010 1

5 10X

10x

2009 10 11 12 13 14 2015

BTM

McKinsey & Company

| 104

2015

300-500

2008

McKinsey & Company

| 105

2010

2010

6,0008,000

6,0008,000

4,0005,000

2,5003,500

2,0003,000

4,400

3,700

2,600

1,600

1,100

2015

30

CWEA

McKinsey & Company

| 106

McKinsey & Company

| 107

90 03

80%

1000

McKinsey & Company

| 109

McKinsey & Company

| 110

1
2
3 / (FACTS)
4 (WAM) /PMU
5 / /SCADA

6 (IVVC)1
7 (M&D)
8 (FDIR)

9
10 / (AMI)
11 (HAN)
12 ( )
13 IT/
1 IVVC 220kV

McKinsey & Company

| 111

IT/

H
5
7

M
4

8
IT/

L
L

IT/
2.5
3

IT

IT

McKinsey & Company

| 112

120
30
80

30
60

30

20

30

2010

2011

McKinsey & Company

| 113

49

49

15,000
13,000
11,000

9,000
7,000
5,000
1985

1995

2005

McKinsey & Company

| 114

PG&E

3
19 70

354 /

48%
54%

(IHD)

1.4

PG&E

2.1

400

SCE

500

ENEL

3000

2.5

3
35

GSM

2 12

30%

30 71

311 /

44%

53%

40%

25 6 /
85 /
~2.2

64%

4.4

/
0.9
/

McKinsey & Company

| 115

PG&E 2006

PG&E

430

497

3,979

6,647

-7%

-10%

2006

2%1

2009

2009

1 49 2005-2009 2% 13000KWh 14500KWh

PG&E

McKinsey & Company

| 116

2003

McKinsey & Company

| 117

(cost
pass-through)

(guaranteed rate of
return on investment)

McKinsey & Company

| 118

100

10

40

20%

100

10

10

60

10

10

60

10

18

40
20%

McKinsey & Company

| 119

PG&E SCE

PG&E

2,362
2,258

14%

2,258

36%

50%

SCE

2,076
1,967

22%

460

25%

18%

1,967

60-90%

59%

320

25%

McKinsey & Company

| 120

(TOU, timeof-use)

(CPP, criticalpeak-pricing)

(PTR, peaktime-rebate)

(PCT,
programmabl
e-controlledthermostat)

PG&E

SCE

2-7 15
14.5-16.5%

46%
5.5%
2-6 15
25%
(PTR)

PG&E

50%

2-6 15
60%

PG&E
100
25%

SCE 20
4
25% 1

PG&E
IHD 1%

(IHD in-homedisplay)

IHD 6.5%

1 2009 PCT

McKinsey & Company

| 121

5.1MW

LED

50%

1030

McKinsey & Company

| 122

McKinsey & Company

| 123

IBM

Google
GE

IBM
IT

McKinsey & Company

| 124

2008 GE /IBM

2009 2

Google GE

Google CEO

3000 4000

2009

IBM

IBM

21

IBM
McKinsey & Company

| 125

40%

McKinsey & Company

| 126

220 20
5

McKinsey & Company

| 127

2010 ~120

2010 ~75
30
ABB

2010 ~5

IT/

McKinsey & Company

| 128

McKinsey & Company

| 129

F3DM/e6
S18 E-Mini

7% 10%)

100
200

McKinsey & Company

| 131

(
)

( BSG/
ISG)

(
)

2009-2015

~3500

60

SOURCE: Interview; literature search; team analysis

2015-2020

2020-2030

2500
100

McKinsey & Company

| 132

BSG

Toyota Hybrid Synergy

Drive
BMW Two Mode
BMW
Integrated Parallel
Hybrid

50

50

(
)

1
2

McKinsey & Company

| 133

BMW

McKinsey & Company

| 134

100%

20
20

McKinsey & Company

| 135

2015 20% B

B 1

2009

2015

2009-15

9,964

-613

1,302

-80

5,846

-360

1,594

-98

EDU

5,002

-971

19

EDU

HCU

2,886

-560

19

1,876

-364

19

5,002

-2,093

35,000

-14,648

1%

3%

42

6%

42

2009 3500 /
2015
2030 / 10

8,937

-1,734

19

BMU

1,563

-303

19

-2,289

37,201
116,172

-24,113

~21

1 Passat Camry
2 B 7

McKinsey & Company

| 136

30% A0

A01
2015
2009

2009-15

ECU
3%

6%

42

2009 3500 /
2015 2030 /
25

1%

5,314

-1,031

19

ECU

1,063

-65

19

1,063

-65

4,252

-1,779

87,500
2

BMU

42

-36,620
16,500
3,720

23,915

143,326

-44,888

-3,135

19

-722

19

-1,471

~30

1 Polo
2 10 10500 1 400

McKinsey & Company

| 137

/
2020

/ /

350-400
/

20-25%

11%

24
0

2006

10

15

20

25

2030

170 /
240 / 1
500 /

1 30%
OEM

McKinsey & Company

| 138

69

46

42

39

37

N=606

3
6

35
30

10

28
18
11

McKinsey & Company

| 139

96

70

<= 25

(38)

(50-75]

(100-150]
>150

100

(17)

(25-50]

(75-100]

100-240

(21)

>240

24

73

(9)
(5)
(10)

50
240

1
2 1
N=100 N=406 N=606

McKinsey & Company

| 140

N=606

3544
4

2535

2535

McKinsey & Company

| 141

N=606

McKinsey & Company

| 142

2
3

N=606

McKinsey & Company

| 143

McKinsey & Company

| 144

2020
10-15%

300

250

2009 3100 /

2020 2200 /

200

100

105

2015

2020

2025

~5%

10-15%

20-25%

5%

15%

20%

95%

85%

80%

2020

3-5
2010

40-50

50

2020

130-200

150

3%

290-350

McKinsey & Company

| 145

2020
30-35%

2009 2500 /

2020 1250 /

5%
2020
200

2020

/
1,000

850-950

800
600
400-450
400
200
0

90-140
5-7
2010

2015

2020

2025

10-15%

~30-35%

~60%-70%

25%

35%

40%

75%

65%

60%

McKinsey & Company

| 146

10

3,000

10

(40%)

100%
1,000

McKinsey & Company

| 147

TEPCO
2010 200 2013
1,000
5 40
10 60
4
Autobloggreen

35 PG&E
DTE Progress 40

Better Place 2011 500,000

100
WirtschaftsWoche
RWE

2010
500

100 Smart

2008 250

200 50

EDF Elektromotive
Autobloggreen

PD 756612 The Powertrain Transformation in the Automotive Industry

McKinsey & Company

| 148

18
20%

1,000

Coulomb Technologies

McKinsey & Company

| 149

, /

/
(2007)

LNG/LPG

3
/

5.0
4.7

33

1.5

2.1

28,801,384

1.9

7.7
1.9

9.6

1.2

2.3

1.1

FPSO

: Drewry Lloyds register of Ships

47

15
5

30
FPSO

LNG

2008

McKinsey & Company

| 151
15
1

15

7.9

2.8

26

McKinsey & Company

| 152
15
2

40%

10%

(Stella McCatney)

50%

+70% p.a.

2004

2009

2004

2009

McKinsey & Company

| 154

2
3
1
4

McKinsey & Company

| 155

Mita, Windtec, KK electronic,

FAG NSK

McKinsey & Company

LED

Artemide, Andromeda

Artemide 60

Troll
ligne-roset

IF

Murano, FLOS, FontanaArte

Flos

150 1860
LED

40

LED

36 , 128 , 2 ,
62 , 64

JMC LUMAX

2010

12

McKinsey & Company

Design in Taiwan

NRZV

2008

FIT

1995

CAD

ODM

22
ODM

McKinsey & Company

IDG

( )
McKinsey & Company

McKinsey & Company

McKinsey & Company

McKinsey & Company

McKinsey & Company

GDP

McKinsey & Company

| 165

Sheikh Zayed

The Lagoons

Al Makhtoum
50

5
McKinsey & Company

200

18

10-15
4
80%

2007

4.65

48

McKinsey & Company

| 167

1970 2/3
1980

USX

2009 G20
21

5%

McKinsey & Company

| 168

2004 , 50 ,
50 400

,
,

GPPN

40,116
7,716
4,480

2,745

1,812

1,247

ViewsWire

McKinsey & Company

| 169

Adlershof

Adlershof

1991
Adlershof

Adlershof 1992
15 4.2

+11% p.a.

2005

06

07

08

Adlershof

WISTA
98%

2009

McKinsey & Company

| 170

2002 25

2005

14
2007

McKinsey & Company

| 171

2006

12.93

IC/

2008
268.4
28.61%
18
2006 10
250

2,000

07-08
270
185
08 530 11
McKinsey & Company

| 172

McKinsey & Company

| 173

Reston

70

10

+10X

1970

80

2005
McKinsey & Company

| 174

McKinsey & Company

1-3

McKinsey & Company

| 176

2.2

3,325
3,337

11.4

2010 2 5
3

30

McKinsey & Company

| 177

1600
600
420
180
400

2011 1

2020
9
1.4

McKinsey & Company

| 178

140
22
2359.014 20 2405.9

2008 10

2009

2008
65%
95.7%

11

McKinsey & Company

| 179

McKinsey & Company

McKinsey & Company

| 181

McKinsey & Company

| 182

 VC/PE

VC/PE

10%-30%
3
100%
10

10 30

McKinsey & Company

| 183

80

McKinsey & Company

| 184

McKinsey & Company

McKinsey & Company

| 186

McKinsey & Company

| 187