AMultiSensorApproachtoDeterminingStormIntensityand

PhysicalRelationshipsinLightningProducingStorms
John R. Mecikalski1
Chris Jewett1, Xuanli Li1, Larry Carey1, Retha Matthee1, and Tim Coleman1
Contributions from: Haig Iskendarian2, Laura Bickmeier2
Anita Leroy1, Walt Petersen3
Atmospheric Science Department
University of Alabama in Huntsville
Huntsville, AL
1

MIT Lincoln Laboratory

Lexington, MA
NASA MSFC
Huntsville, AL
3

Supported by:
NOAA GOES-R3
National Science Foundation
NASA ROSES 2009
NASA Advance Satellite Aviation Weather Products (ASAP)
GLMMeeting2011
Huntsville,Alabama1920September2011

Outline
1. Backgroundandupdatesonlightningradarrelationships,and
01hourlightninginitiation(LI)nowcasting.
2. GOESRRiskReductionStormIntensityprojectupdateUseof
multisensorstoestimatestormparametersanddefineintense
storms.
3. EvaluationofuseofGOESLIindicatorswithinCorridorIntegrated
WeatherSystem(CIWS).
1. GOES12versusNEXRADfieldsforLIevents,coupledto
environmentalparameters.
2. Relationshipsbetweendualpolarimetricradar,MSGinfrared,and
totallightning:Nonlightningvslightningproducingconvection.
GLMMeeting2011
Huntsville,Alabama1920September2011

Overview
GOESdatacanbeprocessedtohelpidentifytheproxyindicatorsofthenon
inductivechargingprocess,leadingtoa3060minleadtimenowcastoffirst
flashlightninginitiation(LI;notjustCG;Harrisetal.2010).
LightningdatafromtheTRMMLISsensorcanbeusedtohelpdiagnosestorm
intensity(Jewettetal.2012).
Fundamentalrelationshipsarenotwellunderstoodbetween:
GOESinfraredfieldsofdevelopingcumuluscloudsinadvanceofLI,and
NEXRADradarprofiles.
GOESinfrared,NEXRADradarandenvironmentalparameters(stability&
precipitablewater,andtheirprofiles;windshear,cloudbaseheightandtemp).
Dualpolarimetricradarfieldsneedtoberelatedtoinfraredandtotallightningdata
towardenhancingunderstanding.

Themaingoalsforthisworkinclude:
Enhancinga075minLIalgorithmintheCorridorIntegratedWeatherSystem
(CIWS)oftheFAA.
Formingmultisensorapproachestodiagnosingstormintensity,inpreparationfor
GOESR,GLMandGPM,thatcanbeusedwithinnowcastingsystems.
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UsingLightningasProxyforStormIntensity
ManystudieshavebeenperformeddefiningintensestormsusingTRMM
(Zipseretal.2006,Nesbittetal.2000,Ceciletal.2005andCecil2009)and
theLightningImagingSensor(LIS)andtheTRMMMicrowaveImager
(TMI)instruments.
Itsimportanttonotethatnotallconvectivestormsproducedlightningand
Ceciletal.(2005)suggestthatsomeofthosestormsmaybeelectrically
activebutLISmaynotbeabletoreliablydetectthoseflashes.
LightningflashratesfromLIShavebeenbrokenintofivecategories:
Flashrate(flmin1)
Ceciletal.(2005),Nesbittand
Zipser(2003),Nesbittetal.(2000)

CAT
0

00

CAT
1

0.72.2

CAT
2

2.230.9

CAT
3

30.9122

Diagnosing storm intensity using coupled TRMM Lightning Imaging

Sensor and MSG in preparation for GOES-R

Methodology

Convectiveeventsarefirstchosenfromthe
precipitationfeaturedatabase,Januaryand
August2007overtropicalAfricaand
easterntropicalAtlantic

Usingthestormcelldatabasedevelopedby
LeroyandPetersen(2011),analysisof
individualstormscellswithinclustersand
isolatedcanbeperformedwiththebenefit
ofhavingmanydifferentTRMMvariables
availableinonelocation.

Stormintensityisdeterminedusingthe
TRMMprecipitationradar.Currently,
intensityisbeingdefinedbytheIceWater
Path(IWP)withreflectivities>40dBz
between6and10km(amixedphase
regionimportantforlightninginitiation).

IWPiscalculatedforeverycellfeature
overbothlandandwater,makinguseful
statisticswhenanalyzingTRMMLISand
MSGimagery.

LISdataisconvertedtoflashratesby
combiningalltheflashesforoneIWP
sampleusinganearestneighbortechnique
anddividingbytheaverageobservation
time(typically~90s).

MSGdataisbeinganalyzedforeachIWP
sampletimealongwithanhourofdata
beforeandafter,allowingfortemporal
trendsofconvectiveinterestfields.

CellIdentificationAlgorithm
Large
convective
regions

Small
convective
cells
Convective
cellswithLIS
flashes

Courtesy:LeRoy(ESSC/UAHuntsville
andPetersen(NASA/MSFC)

TRMMPrecipitationRadarStormIntensity

Currently,intensityisbeingdefinedbytheIceWaterPathwithreflectivities
>40dBZbetween6and10km.Thisensuresamixedphaseregion,whichis
importantforlightninginitiation.
Intensebeingrelativetostormparameterslikeupdraftstrength,growthrate,etc.

SlightlyIntense
110

FairlyIntense
1050

ModeratelyIntense
50100

Intense
100150

BlackdotsarelightningflashlocationsasobservedbyLIS

VeryIntense
150200

ExtremelyIntense
>200

Use of MSG Fields Storm Intensity

1145UTC

10.8mChannel9
1200UTC

Acumuluscloudobserved
todevelopinMSGIRand
visibledataandproducea
>35dBZecho.

1215UTC

3x3
1215UTCHRV

Agrowingcumulus
cloudevent

9x9
GLMMeeting2011
Huntsville,Alabama1920September2011

MSG IR Interest Fields per Physical Process

CloudDepth
6.210.8mdifference
6.27.3mdifference
10.8mTB
7.313.4m
6.29.7mdifference
8.712.0mdifference

Glaciation
15minTrendTrispectral
Trispectral
30minTrendTrispectral
15min8.710.8m
15min12.010.8mTrend
15min3.910.8mTrend
12.010.8mdifference

UpdraftStrength
30min6.27.3mTrend
15min10.8mTrend
30min10.8mTrend
15min6.27.3mTrend
30min9.713.4mTrend
30min6.210.8mTrend
15min6.212.0mTrend
15min7.39.7mTrend

21UniqueIRindicatorsforNowcastingCIfromMSG(GOESR),
andalsofordetermininghowintenseagivenstormmaybe.
MorewillbesaidonhowMSGfieldsrelatetostormintensity(i.e.LIS/lightning
fieldsintheGOESR3talk(Wednesday4:20pm).
GLMMeeting2011
Huntsville,Alabama1920September2011

LightningInitiation:ConceptualIdea
WhatisthecurrentLIforecastleadtime?
SatelliteDetection

Upto~60min
addedlead
timeforLI
usingGOES

12
RadarDetection

Height(km)

Time

CIForecastwithoutsatellite

3045min
CIForecastwithsatellite

to75min

LIForecast?
GLMMeeting2011
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Leadtime
increaseswith
slower
growing
cumulus
clouds(i.e.
lowCAPE
environments
)
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SatelliteLIIndicators:Methodology
1.

2.

3.
4.
5.

Identifyandtrackgrowingcumuluscloudsfrom
theirfirstsignsinvisibledata,untilfirst
lightning.
AnalyzetotallightninginLightningMapping
Arraynetworks,notonlycloudtoground
lightning,toidentifyforLI.
Monitor10GOESreflectanceandIRindicators
ascloudsgrow,every15minutes.
Performstatisticalteststodeterminewherethe
mostusefulinformationexists.
SetinitialcriticalvaluesofLIinterestfields.

Harris,R.J.,J.R.Mecikalski,W.M.MacKenzie,Jr.,P.A.Durkee,andK.E.Nielsen,
2010:DefinitionofGOESinfraredfieldsofinterestassociatedwithlightninginitiation.
J.Appl.Meteor.Climatol.,49,25272543.
Mecikalski,J.R.,X.Li,L.Carey,E.McCaul,andT.Coleman,2011:Regional
variationsandpredictabilityrelationshipsinGOESinfraredlightninginitiation
interestfields.Inpreparation.J.Appl.Meteor.Climatol.Inpreparation.
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SATCAST Algorithm:
Lightning Initiation
Interest Fields
TheseindicatorsforLIarea
subsetofthoseforCI.
Theyidentifythewiderupdrafts
thatpossessstronger
velocities/massflux(icemass
flux).
Indoingso,wemayhighlight
convectivecoresthatloftlarge
amountsofhydrometersacross
the10to25Clevel,where
thechargingprocesstendstobe
significant.
Providesuptoa75leadtimeon
firsttimeLI.

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SatelliteIndicatorsofLightningInterestFields
Focuson4LightningInitiationinterestfieldtostart

inversespike

(1)3.9mreflectance:Monitorcloudswherethecloudtop
reflectanceconsistentlyfallsfrom>10%tonearorbelow5%.
Theratefoundis~24%/15min.
(2)Forcloudswith10.7mTB<0Cand>18C(255K),use
the3.910.7mdifferencefields,withathresholdat>17C
degrees.
(3)Trendsinthe3.910.7mdifferenceshouldbe>1.5C/15
min.Foridealcases,thetrendin3.910.7mwillreverse
directions,fallingbyupto5C/15min,thenrising(byupto
5C/15min).Thisdownupinversespike"istheresultof
cloudtopglaciation,butasitonlyseemstooccurforthe
"better"LIevents,itmayleadtolowerdetection
probabilitiesinlessprolificlightningproducingclouds.
(4)The15mintrendin6.510.7mdifferenceof>5C.This
isagoodindicatorofastrongupdraft.
GLMMeeting2011
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LightningInitiationIndicators
VisibleSatellite,RadarPrecipitation,
andCGLightning

NumberofLIIndicators

MSY
4LI
Indicators

1830Z

1832Z
FivelightningIndicators(LI)areadded
cumulativelyonapixelbypixelbasis:

VisibleSatellite,RadarPrecipitation,
andCGLightning

3July2011

LI1:18C<10.7mchannel<0CAND
3.910.7mdiff>17C
LI2:6.710.7m15mintrend>5C
LI3:3.9mreflectivity<0.11AND
3.9mreflectivity15mintrend<0.02
LI4:3.910.7m15mintrend>1.5C
LI5:10.7m15mintrend<6C

Goal:CoupletoLightning
Potentialalgorithm

GLMMeeting2011
Huntsville,Alabama1920September2011

MSY

LI

1850Z
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PhysicalRelationships

GOESLIIndicatorscomparedtoNEXRADreflectivitypatterns
warmrain

Longerlead
timeforLI

driermain
updraft

CFAD for 36 storms in Florida

CFAD for 23 storms in Oklahoma
bin size: 4 dBZ vertical resolution: 0.5km

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PhysicalRelationships

GOESLIIndicatorscomparedtoNEXRADreflectivitypatterns

Morerapid
Stormgrowth

Maximum reflectivity profiles

averaged for 36 storms in FL

Maximum reflectivity profiles

averaged for 23 storms in OK.
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Florida

Oklahoma

Echo top
vs.
GOES-12 10.7m Tb

Maximum reflectivity
vs.
6.5-10.7, 13.3-10.7,
and 3.9-10.7
Lower moisture

Increase in updraft with glaciation

Consistent strong updraft

Glaciation occurs later

10.7 trend, 6.5-10.7 trend,

13.3-10.7 trend,
and 3.9-10.7 trend

Max height of 30 dBZ

vs.
GOES 3.9 m reflectance
and trend

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PhysicalRelationships

GOESLIIndicatorscomparedtoNEXRADreflectivitypatterns
Higher PW in Florida leads
to higher hydrometeor
volume, a well-defined
warm rain process. Storms
possess lower and warmer
cloud bases.

More rapid storm growth in

Oklahoma, yet with lower
moisture (cooler and drier
cloud bases). Storms tend
to be large in the end, and
likely produce more
lightning.
Echo top vs. storm area and trend
Storm area: GOES-12 10.7 m brightness temperature above 0 C

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ADualPolarimetric,MSG,andTotalLightningViewofConvection
NSFfunded.Mastersstudent,RethaMatthee
IncollaborationwithLarryCarey,BillMcCaul,WaltPetersen
Goal:Todeterminerelationshipsbetweeninfrared(cloudtop)estimatesof
physicalprocesses(updraftstrength,glaciationandphase,andmicrophysical
parameters,e.g.,effectiveradius,cloudopticalthickness),dualpolarimetric
derivedhydrometeorfields,andtotallightning.
DoneforselectconvectivestormeventsovertheNAMMAfieldexperiment
regioninwesternAfricaandtheequatorialeastAtlanticocean.
Focusonlightningandnonlightningcasestudies,~2030ofeachstorms.
Resultsarepreliminaryatthistime:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

DatafromNPOLprocessedandcolocatedwithlightningobservations.
ProcessingMSGdataforlocationsforidentifiedconvectivestorms
WaitingonMSGderivedfieldsofeffectiveradius,opticalthickness,cloudtop
phase,andcloudtoppressure
SofarFoundrelativelyknownrelationshipsbetweenhydrometeorfields,
lightningonset,forbothlightningandnonlightningevents
KeyresultswillcomeswhenMSGdataareaddedtothemix.
GLMMeeting2011
Huntsville,Alabama1920September2011

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 MapshowingthelocationoftheNPOLradar(locatedin
Kawsara,SenegalonthewestcoastofAfrica)

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1345 1400 1415 1430

6.2 m

7.3 m

10.8 m

12.0 m
Red=LightningGreen=Nonlightning

8.7 m

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Near-term Plans
1. ContinuedtestingofLIindicatorsinCIWS/CoSPA;applywith
latestimprovementstoobjecttracking.
2. Evaluatevalueinlightningprobabilitynowcastsforimproving
efficiencyinairportoperations.
1. Enhanceestimatesofstormintensityandstormlifecycle
(stormdecay)forassessingturbulence/hazardpotential
2. Linklightninginitiationtoalightningpotential(SPoRT)product
foramorequantitativeforecastproduct.
3. FollowonNSFproject
GLMMeeting2011
Huntsville,Alabama1920September2011

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