Electronic Components Consulting Services Inc.

Reliability Calculations
What, Why, When
&
How do we benefit from them?

Who am I?
Harvey Altstadter
34 years experience in Component Engineering and Reliability
Military
Commercial
Commercial Space

HR Electronic Components Consulting Services Inc

Electronic Components Consulting Services Inc.

Consultant to Industry
631 928-2847

What are Reliability Calculations?

Methodology for analyzing the expected or actual
reliability of a product, process or service, and
identifying actions to reduce failures or mitigate their
effect.

Stress Analysis
Reliability Predictions
FMEA (Failure Mode and Effects Analysis) or
FMECA (Failure Mode Effects and Criticality Analysis)

Yardstick for comparison of design approaches

Cost-Benefit Trade

Why Do Reliability Calculations?

Make the product more reliable

Selling feature
Reduce returns
Lower costs
Enhance or maintain company reputation
Comparisons with competition

Customer request
Design goal
Hard Requirement

Stress Analysis
Establishes the presence of a safety margin
Good engineering practice
Enhances system life
Provides input data for Reliability Prediction
Describes operating condition as a percentage of rating

Customer requirement
Validates compliance with Derating Criteria

Reliability Predictions (MTBF)

If you dont like the numbers...

...give me five minutes, I will make up a better one

Reliability Predictions (MTBF)

Form the basis of Reliability Analyses
Compute predicted system failure rate or
Mean Time Between Failures
Failure Rate is usually expressed in Failures per 106 or 109 hours
MTBF is usually expressed in terms of hours
Example: for a system with a predicted MTBF of 1000 hours, on average the
system experiences one failure in 1000 hours of operation or a Failure Rate of
1000 per 106 hours

Methodology
Use accepted standards
Model failure rates of components
Analyze system
Calculate the system predicted failure rate or MTBF

Evaluate prediction vs target or required MTBF

Evaluate stress or temperature reduction design changes
Evaluate practicality of design change especially when MTBF is self imposed

Reliability Predictions (Continued)

Common Standards
MIL-HDBK-217
Generally associated with military systems
Models are very detailed
Provides for many environments
Provides multiple quality levels

Bellcore (Telcordia)
Telecommunications Industry standard

Seems to have supplanted French CNET and British Telcom standards

Models patterned after MIL-HDBK-217, but simplified
Provides multiple quality levels
Can incorporate current laboratory test data
Can incorporate current field performance data

Other Standards
Auto Industry

Resources
Software packages cover both MIL-HDBK-217 and Bellcore models
RELEX is widely available

Reliability Predictions (Continued)

General approach to Prediction
Model for a single part consists of a number of factors multiplied together
ss = G * Q * S * T
ss = Steady State Failure rate
G = Generic or Base Failure Rate
Q = Quality Factor
S = Stress Factor
T = Temperature Factor
Other factors: First Year Multiplier or Experience Factor

Model for a unit

Consists of the sum of all of the individual part failure rates multiplied by an
Environmental Factor E

Source of Factor Information- varies with method used

Lookup table
Calculation based upon complexity

Reliability Predictions
The first cut is made with little analysis to get a
rough idea where the design is relative to the
desired outcome
Better numbers come from better insight into
the design
Factors to be considered include Duty Cycle
and refined Thermal and Stress Analyses

FMEA or FMECA
Design FMEA

FMEA is a bottoms up method of analyzing and improving a design

Heavily used by US automotive industry
Chrysler, Ford, GM require this type of analysis
Many different company and industry standards
Most widely used is the AIAG (Automotive Industry Action Group) standard
Analytic Process
Consider each component or functional block and how it can fail (Failure
Modes)
Determine the Effect of each failure mode, and the severity on system
function
Determine the likelihood of occurrence and of detecting the failure.
Calculate the Risk Priority Number, or RPN, using the formula as follows:
RPN = Severity x Occurrence x Detection

Consider corrective actions (may reduce severity of occurrence, or increase

probably of detection)
Start with the higher RPN values (most severe problems) and work down
Recalculate RPN after the corrective actions have been determined, the aim
is to minimize RPN

FMEA or FMECA (Continued)

Process FMEA
Similar to a Design FMEA but is applied to a manufacturing process
or service. The object is to use this methodology to optimize
processes.

FMECA
A FMECA is similar to a FMEA,
Criticality is computed in place of RPN .
FMECAs are used extensively in military, aerospace and medical
equipment fields, for both design and process reliability analysis.
MIL-HDBK-1629 is a widely accepted standard for FMECAs.

When
Stress Analysis
Prior to release of design to production
Prior to implementation of design changes

Reliability predictions should be done at all stages of design

Early design stage- Reliability Prediction may a rough estimate
Late design stage- Reliability Prediction is refined
Fielded system- revised prediction can incorporate field data for future use

Design FMEA or FMECA

As design matures, impact of failure needs to be addressed

Process FMEA
During process design
Prior to implementing new or updated processes

How do we benefit from them?

No system benefits from a calculation
Calculation without action is window dressing
Contributes to good or bad feelings about system
Could make customer happy ...or not

Calculation after design is complete is a waste of time

Feedback of results into design yields the benefits

Longer predicted life

Fewer field failures
Lower warranty costs
Better customer relations

Famous Flubs
BART (Bay Area Rapid Transit)
FMEA not performed or inadequate
Oscillator Crystal Failure- Open. Oscillator Frequency went up

Train speed increased rapidly

Train overshot last stop
Train rammed barrier at high speed
Very serious accident

Browns Ferry Nuclear Power Plant Accident

Results of FMEA waived
Main & Redundant Instrumentation & Control Wiring

Required to be in separate cable trays in case of fire

Requirement waived as a cost saving
Fire in containment wall insulation during leak check
Fire destroyed main and redundant I & C wiring

Nuclear Plant on fire and out of control for several days

Reliability Calculations
Summary
What: Analysis Toolkit
Why: Product Improvement Reduced Cost
When: Early for Design Feedback
Prior to Completion to Validate Goals
Benefit: Reduced Field Failures
Reduced Warranty Costs Better Customer
Relations