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0 DEMAND ESTIMATION
OUTLINE
4.1 Introduction to demand Estimation
4.2 Technique of demand estimation
4.3 Demand estimation by Multiple Regression
-Least square method
4.4 Interpretation of regression results
A)
Standard error of coefficients or tstatistics
B)
Coefficient of Determination
C)
Standard error of estimation (see)
DEMAND ESTIMATION
Demand function :Qx = f(Px, Py, I ,A)
Objective: Estimate the quantity demanded for
the product if certain variable changes
Qx
--- dependent variable
Px,Py,I,A --- independent variable
Ex.
Qx = a + bPx + cPy + dI + eA
a,b,c,d,e ------ coefficient
If 1% or 1 unit of the independent variables
changes, what will happen to the Qx.
Technique of demand estimation
e.g Manager wants to determine the relationship
between firm's advertising expenditures and
its sales revenue
To test hypothesis, that increase in Advertising
Will increase sales and estimate the
strength of the relationship.
e.g $ Increase in Advertising--------increase in Sales
Sales (y-axis)
--- dependent variable
Advertising expenditures (x-axis)---- independent
variable
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Scatter Diagram
Sales
.
.
..
Advertising
3
y=a + bx
MULTIPLE REGRESSION
Estimation of the parameter of equation with more
than one independent variable
e.g demand ----price, income , price of other
product
Qd = f(P,I,Po)
Qd = a +bP+cI+dPo
Regression analysis- 4 steps
1.
development of a theoretical model
2.
data collection
3.
choice of functional form
4.
estimation and interpretation of results
1.
Development of a theoretical model
-formulate model of economic relationship and
expressed in mathematical form
-specify the variable to be included in regression
equation that are expected to influence demand
3.
4.
c)
Coefficient of Determination (R 2)
-proportion of total variation in the dependent
variable explained by changes by
independent variable
-indicates how well the entire regression
model explains changes in the value of
dependent variable
R 2 =0.68
68% of total variation in dependent variable
(Qd) is explained by the independent
variables (e.g price,income, price of other
good,etc)
0< R 2<1 values of R 2
0-no explanation of variation in dependent
variable
1-all variation has been explained by
independent variable
High R 2-Good fit-actual data fit near the r
egression line
Low R 2- Poor fit-actual data are scattered
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e) F-test
-provides evidence on whether or not a
statistically significant proportion of the total
variation in the dependent variable has been
explained.
F= R2/ (k-1)
(1-R2 )/(n-k)
-to test whether a significant proportion of the
total variation in the dependent variable has
been explained by the estimated regression
equation
If value of F-statistics =0, regression
equation provides no explanation of the
variation in the dependent variable
If F-value> 0 (large number), assume
that at least some of the variation in the
regression model are significant factors in
explaining the variation in the dependent
variable
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RULE:
F-statistics for regression > Critical value of Fdistribution table
Reject hypothesis of independent between
dependent variable and independent variable in
the regression.
Regression equation as a whole, does
significantly explain the variation in the
dependent variable
Critical value of F-distribution table
=F f1 f2
f1= degree of freedom for numerator = k-1
(k=number of estimated coefficient)
f2= degree of freedom for denominator = n-k
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