Commercial

Evolution Simulation
Carlos Soriano Gustavo Patow
ViRVIG-UdG

UDMV 2015

Problem: Content Creation

Entertainment - Tokio from Cars 2

UDMV 2015

Problem: Content
Creation
Entertainment London from Cars 2

UDMV 2015

Problem: Content Creation

Historical Reconstruction: Pompeii

UDMV 2015

Problem: Content Creation

So much for
geometry
What about LIFE?
(urban life)

UDMV 2015

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Objective

To simulate the
evolution of the
commercial structure in
a modern city

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More specifically
Given an initial distribution of shops,
Study the natural commercial
evolution
And the evolution when larger
commercial areas, like malls, are
introduced

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Huff model
The Huff model [Huf63] is a
measure of the attraction
each commerce has on
potential consumers

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Huff model

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Tij distance
Urban Distance
A*
Pedestrians
Cars
Public transportation

Observation: Tij Tji

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Simulation
We use an agent-based
simulation to determine
how these aspects affect
their choices

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Simulation Algorithm
1. Start from an initial
shop population
2. Assess the base income
for each shop

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Simulation Algorithm
3. After a given simulation time,
the system decides whether
The shop has retained an income
such that it can continue operating
Or has gone bankrupt

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Barcelona 1897

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Barcelona 1932

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Barcelona 1932

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Discussion (I)
It partially predicts the
evolution of the city of
Barcelona from 1897 to 1932
Taking into account the
introduction of the national
markets

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Discussion (II)
Correctly predicts average
behaviors at large distances from
the markets
But fails to predict the
"stickiness" effect over the
surrounding area

It is left as future work to addUDMV 2015

Conclusions
A new algorithm to predict the evolution of
shops and markets in a modern city over
time
Based on

The Huff gravitation estimation

Simulation in terms of the urban distance from
prospective customers to all the shops
Sampling techniques to generate a population
of agents/customers that shop at selected
UDMV 2015

Future Work
Add more general urban
descriptors
E.g., a la Space Syntax by Bill
Hillier

Add expressiveness to
reproduce more phenomena

UDMV 2015

Commercial Evolution Simulation

Thanks!!!

UDMV 2015