Cisco Visual Networking Index:

Internet Traffic Growth Forecast

9th Annual
Latin America Forecast Update 20132018

Lucas Oloco, Director Service Provider

Andres Maz, Director Technology Policy

June 9 2014

The Network Effect

of the Beautiful
Game
Just the IP streaming and digital
broadcast of the World Cup is
estimated to be 4.3 Exabytes
Nearly equal to the total 2013
broadband traffic for Australia
(4.6 Exabytes)
2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

Cisco Confidential

VNI Projections and Actuals (Global)

Actual Growth Has Been Within 10% of Projected Growth

Projected in 2010
60,000,000,000
50,000,000,000

Actual

51,658,145,580
49,918,701,324

40,000,000,000

Exabytes
per 30,000,000,000
Month20,000,000,000
10,000,000,000
0

IP Traffic in 2013

Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 20132018

2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

Cisco Confidential

Key Trends
1

Dramatic growth continues driven by video

Wide range of devices, applications and

requirements

Wireless surpasses Fixed

2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

Cisco Confidential

Global IP Traffic Growth / Top-Line

Global IP Traffic will Increase 2.6X from 2013 to 2018

21% CAGR
140,000,000,000
120,000,000,000
100,000,000,000
80,000,000,000
Exabytes
per
60,000,000,000
Month

131,552,749,830
109,705,399,065
91,259,546,990
40,000,000,000
75,738,966,566
62,475,570,434
51,167,937,316
20,000,000,000
0

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 20132018

2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

Cisco Confidential

Latin America IP Traffic Growth / Top-Line

LATAM IP Traffic will Increase More Than 2.5X from 2013 to 2018
21% CAGR
10,000,000,000
9,000,000,000
8,000,000,000
7,000,000,000
6,000,000,000
Exabytes
5,000,000,000
per
8,930,541,953.9
4,000,000,000
7,576,491,913.0
Month
6,362,650,465.7
3,000,000,000
5,318,015,818.9
4,361,390,824.6
2,000,000,000
3,487,829,816.2
1,000,000,000
0

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 20132018

2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

Cisco Confidential

Traffic & Service Adoption Drivers, 20132018

More Internet
4 Billion Users
Internet Users
More Devices
21 Billion
Connections

2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

Growth
Catalys
ts

Faster Broadband
2.6-FoldSpeeds
Speed Increase
More Video Viewing
79% of All IP Traffic

Cisco Confidential

Latin America IP Video Traffic Growth

IP Video Will Account for 81% of Global IP Traffic by 2018

10,000,000,000
9,000,000,000
8,000,000,000
7,000,000,000
6,000,000,000
Petabyte
s per5,000,000,000
4,000,000,000
Month
3,000,000,000
2,000,000,000
1,000,000,000
0

21% CAGR 2013

2018
Gaming (0.03%, 0.06%)
File Sharing (18%, 7%)
Web/Data (23%, 12%)
IP VOD (4%, 10%)

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

* Figures (n) refer to 2013, 2018 traffic share

Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 20132018
2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

Cisco Confidential

Key Trends
1

Dramatic growth continues driven by video

Wide range of devices, applications and

requirements

Wireless surpasses Fixed

2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

Cisco Confidential

Devices Matter: Monthly Traffic per Device (2013)

M2M Module

78 MB

Smartphone

1.0 GB

Tablet

4.0 GB

Internet Set-Top or Dongle

8.0 GB

Laptop/PC

22.7 GB

Ultra High Definition TV

22.9 GB*

* Includes IP VoD Traffic

Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 20132018
2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

Cisco Confidential

10

Increasing Video Definition

By 2018, More than 20% of Connected Flat Panel TV Sets will be

4K
250,000,000

UHD 18 Mbps
HD 7.2 Mbps
SD 2 Mbps

200,000,000

Connected 4K
TV Sets (M)

150,000,000
202,420,307

100,000,000

119,443,045

50,000,000

62,549,889
27,533,993
0 980,8438,436,006

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 20132018

2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

Cisco Confidential

11

Global Connected Devices Growth by Type

By 2018, M2M More than a Third of the Total Connections

11% CAGR
25,000,000,000
Other Portable Devices (5.2% ,4.1% )

20,000,000,000

Tablets (2.3% ,5.0% )

15,000,000,000

PCs (12.2% ,7.0% )

Billions of
Devices

TV (10.0% ,12.8% )

10,000,000,000

Non-Smartphones (37.6% ,16.8% )

Smartphones (14.1% ,19.1% )

5,000,000,000
0

M2M (18.6% ,35.2% )

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

* Figures (n) refer to 2013, 2018 device share

Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 20132018
2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

Cisco Confidential

12

Global IP Traffic by Device Type

By 2018, Non-PC Devices will Drive 57% of Global IP Traffic

21% CAGR
140,000,000,000
120,000,000,000

Non-Smartphones (0.1% ,0.1% )

100,000,000,000

Other Portable Devices (0.1% ,0.4% )

M2M (0.4% ,2.8% )

80,000,000,000
Exabytes
per 60,000,000,000
Month

Tablets (2.2% ,14.0% )

Smartphones (3.5% ,16.3% )

40,000,000,000

TV (26.5% ,23.6% )

20,000,000,000
0

PCs (67.2% ,42.8% )

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

* Figures (n) refer to 2013, 2018 device traffic share

Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 20132018
2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

Cisco Confidential

13

Internet of Everything

Smart Cars Will Have Nearly 4 M2M Modules Per Car by 2018
Average Traffic Grows 13.3X, From 3PB to 41PB
300,000
250,000
200,000

Smart Cars
(M) 150,000
100,000
50,000
0

35,351 56,592

90,031

255,689
192,293
136,003

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

45,000
40,000
35,000
Smart Cars30,000
Traffic 25,000
(PB/Month)20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0

40,716
25,045
2,620 4,593

8,280

14,696

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Source: Machina Research, Cisco VNI Global IP Data Traffic Forecast, 20132018
2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

Cisco Confidential

14

Global Residential Services

By 2018, Online Video Will Grow the Fastest; Digital TV Will Have Highest Adoption
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%

CAGR
2013
2018

6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
0%

10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

2018 % Adoption
Note: By 2018, the global residential fixed internet population will be 2.5 billion; the
number of global TV households will be 1.8 billion.
2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

Cisco Confidential

15

Global Business Services

By 2018 Personal Video Conferencing Will Grow the

Fastest; Mobile SMS Will Have the Highest Adoption
50%
40%

CAGR
2013
2018

30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-10%

10%

30%

50%

70%

90%

2018 % Adoption
Note: By 2018, the global business Internet population will be 2.1 billion; the number of
business mobile users will be 582 million.
2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

Cisco Confidential

16

Busy Hour versus Average Hour

Busy Hour Will Be 3.3x Higher Than Average Hour by 2018

4.0

Ratio of
Busy Hour

3.5

to
Average
Hour
Traffic

2.5

3.3

3.5
3.2

3.2

3.0

3.4

3.0
2.7

2.9

3.2

2.0
1.5
1.0

Global
APAC LATAM
2.7
2.5
2.5

NA

WE

CEE 2.6
MEA
2.3

Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 20132018

2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

Cisco Confidential

17

Busy Hour vs. Average Hour Internet Traffic

Driven by Video, Busy Hour Grows Faster Than Average Hour

The Internet is the Next Primetime Medium for Video
28% CAGR

1,200,000
1,000,000

Average Hour
Busy Hour

Traffic
(Gbps)

800,000
600,000
400,000

23% CAGR

200,000
0
2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 20132018

2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

Cisco Confidential

18

Key Trends
1

Dramatic growth continues driven by video

Wide range of devices, applications and requirements

Wireless surpasses Fixed

2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

Cisco Confidential

19

Global IP Traffic by Local Access Technology

Fixed/Wi-Fi Will Surpass Fixed/Wired With 49% IP Traffic Share by 2018

140,000,000,000
120,000,000,000

Mobile Data (61% CAGR)

Fixed/Wired (12% CAGR)
Fixed/Wi-Fi from Mobile Devices (71% CAGR)
Fixed/Wi-Fi from Wi-Fi Only Devices (19% CAGR)

21% CAGR 20132018

12%

100,000,000,000

39%

80,000,000,000
Petabytes
per Month
60,000,000,000

13%

40,000,000,000
36%

20,000,000,000
0

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 20132018

2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

Cisco Confidential

20

Key Takeaways
Wide range of devices, applications, requirements
Internet of Everything is real
Wireless dominates access and is essential

2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

Cisco Confidential

21

Policy Implications
Networks need to be managed
Not all bits created equal
Wide range of device requirements
Average is not good enough
Need more spectrum licensed and unlicensed
Wi-Fi essential and growing
Billions of M2M devices with diverse spectrum
requirements
2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

Cisco Confidential

22

Cisco VNI Web Sites

IP Traffic Forecast: http://www.cisco.com/go/vni
Service Adoption Forecast: http://www.cisco.com/go/vnisa
Press Releases
White Papers / FAQs
Cisco VNI Web-based Tools / Free Apps

IP Traffic Forecast inquiries: traffic-inquiries@cisco.com

Service Adoption Forecast inquiries: ask-vnisa@cisco.com
2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

Cisco Confidential

23

Thank you.