LESSON: V

PRINCIPLES OF STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

AND
ELEMENTS OF STATISTICAL INFERENCE

TESTING STATISTICAL HYPOTHESES

Muchoftheactivityofprofessionalsinbiologicalandhealthsciencesinvolves

testingeitherformalhypothesesorinformalhunchesabouttheeffectsof
independentvariables.
Hypothesistestingisconcernedwithmakingdecisionsusingdata
Anullhypothesisisspecifiedthatrepresentsthestatusquo,usuallylabeledHo
Thenullhypothesisisassumedtrueandstatisticalevidenceisrequiredtorejectin
favorofaresearchoralternativehypothesis
Consideracourtoflaw;thenullhypothesisisthatthedefendantisinnocent
Werequireevidencetorejectthenullhypothesis(convict)

Oneisconsideredinnocentunlessprovenguilty.
Nullhypothesisispresumedtrue,evidenceis
requiredtoconvictorrejectit


Hereanexample;

Themeanageofmenarcheof38femaleathleteswasfoundtobe
13.9withastandarddeviationof1.87.Theaverageageofmenarche
inthegeneralpopulationis12.8.Doesthepopulationofathletesdiffer
fromthegeneralpopulationintheageatwhichmenarcheisreached?

How, then do we go about deciding whether the data support or repudiate in hypothesis?

Let'susetheexampleabovetoillustratetheprocessofhypothesistesting.

Intherealworld,theageatwhichtheseathletesexperiencemenarcheisthesameasinthe
generalpopulationoritisnot?

Tostartwith,theresearchersetsuptwomutuallyexclusiveandexhaustivehypotheses
(mutuallyexclusivebecausebothcannotbecorrect,exhaustiveoneofthemmustbecorrect),
calledthe null hypothesisandthe alternative hypothesis.

Why is hypothesis testing so important?

Thepurposeofhypothesistestingistoassistadministratorsandcliniciansinmaking

decisions.
Hypothesistestingprovidesanobjectiveframeworkformakingdecisionsusing
probabilisticmethods,ratherthanrelyingonsubjectiveimpressions.
Peoplecanformdifferentopinionsbylookingatdata,butahypothesistestprovides
auniformdecision-makingcriterionthatisconsistentforallpeople.

SETTING UP THE HYPOTHESES

The null hypothesis(H0)statessomeexpectationabouttheparameter,usuallyinthe

negativeform(hencetheuseofthetermnull).Inthepresentexample,thenull
hypothesismighttakethefollowingform:
H0:The mean menarcheal age female athletes is not different from the mean

menarcheal age in the general population.

Nullandalternativehypothesesarealwaysexpressedintermsofpopulation
parameters,sothesymbolicformofH0,whendealinginmeans;

H0:0=
where0isthemeanvaluehypothesizedunderthenullhypothesis.

The null hypothesis(H0)statessomeexpectationabouttheparameter,usuallyinthenegative

form(hencetheuseofthetermnull).Inthepresentexample,thenullhypothesismighttakethe
followingform:
H0:The mean menarcheal age female athletes is not different from the mean menarcheal age in
the general population.

Nullandalternativehypothesesarealwaysexpressedintermsofpopulationparameters,sothe
symbolicformofH0,whendealinginmeans;

H0:0=
where0isthemeanvaluehypothesizedunderthenullhypothesis.

Bycontrast,the alternative hypothesis(H1)deniesthevalidityofthenullhypothesis.Thus,in

thepresentexample,itwouldbeexpressedasfollows;

H1:The mean menarcheal age of female athletes is different from the mean menarcheal age in
the general populationsymbolically,itisexpressedas;
H1:0
Howdowegoaboutdecidingwhichiscorrect?
Theansweristesting.
Thus,statisticaltestingorprovingofascientifichypothesiscomesintheformofrejectingthe
nullhypothesis.Ifthenullhypothesiscanbelegitimatelyrejected,thenthealternative
hypothesismustbeasserted.
But what constitutes legitimate rejection of H0 ?

WHERE DID THAT 5% COME FROM?

Itturnsout,thatthisisreallyahistoricalissue.Oneday,SirRonnieFisher(thegranddaddyof
statistics)washavingteawithhisfriends,andmusedthat,"if the probability of such an event
were sufficiently small-say, 1 chance in 20 then one might regard the result as significant".And
theemperorspokeandthatwasthat.
Inotherwords,anoutcomethatcouldoccurlessthanonetimein20whenthenullhypothesis
istruewouldleadtotherejectionofthenullhypothesis.

Ifpisbelowthecut-off(letssay0.05),theresultiscalledstatistically significant
(andbelowsomelowerlevel,suchas0.01,itmaybecalledhighly significant);when
above0.05itiscallednot significant.

REGION OF REJECTION AND REGION OF ACCEPTANCE

TheareainthesamplingdistributionthatleadstotherejectionofH 0,isknownastheregionof
rejectionwhenwerejectH0,atagivenlevelof,itiscustomarytorefertotheresultsas
significantatthatlevel.Thus,wecanrejectH0atthe0.05level,wesaytheresultsare
statisticallysignificantatthe5%level.
TheareadoesnotleadtotherejectionofH0isoftencalledregionofacceptance.
Figurebelowshowstheregionsofacceptanceandtheregionsofrejectionat=0.05and=0.01
whenthenormalcurveisappropriatesamplingdistribution.
Regionofrejection
Regionofacceptance

0.025

0.475 0.475

0.025

0.005

0.495

0.495

0.005

Figure:Regionsofacceptanceandregionsofrejectionunderthenormalprobability
distribution(left)when=0.05,(right)when=0.01

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ONE-SIDED AND TWO-SIDED HYPOTHESIS TESTS

Statisticalhypothesesthatincludebothtails(positiveandnegativeareasasshowninfigure1that
theteststatisticmightfallinandleadtoourrejectionofH 0)ofsamplingdistributioninthe
regionofrejectionareknownastwo-sided hypothesesortwo-tailed hypotheses.
Symbolically,itisexpressedas:
H0:0=
H1:0
However,occasionsbothnullandalternativehypothesesaredirectionalorone-sided.Figure,
showsregionsofrejectionofH0at=0.05andat=0.01foraone-tailedtestofsignificance.
Symbolically,itisexpressedas: H0:0H0:0

H1:0<H1:0>

Figure:RegionsofrejectionofHoat=0.05andat=0.01foraone-tailedtestofsignificance
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TWO TYPES OF ERRORS OF INFERENCE

Defendant
Verdict of Judge

Innocent

Guilty

Not Guilty

Correct

Incorrect

Guilty

Incorrect

Correct

Likeourlegalsystem,theprocessofhypothesistestingisnotperfect;therearetwo

kindsoferrorsthatcanbemade.

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Firstlywecanobtaina significant result(p<0.05), and thus reject the null hypothesis is true.This
iscalledaType I error,andmaybethoughtofasa"false positive"result.
Alternatively,wemayobtaina non significant result (p>0.05) when the null hypothesis is not
trueinwhichcasewemakeaType II error.Inotherwords,wedonotreject(accept)H0,when
nullhypothesisisnottrue.
TheprobabilityofTypeIerroriscalled andtheprobabilityofTypeIIerroriscalled.

Table:Therelationshipbetweenand.
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POWER
Foranyhypothesistestthevalueisdeterminedinadvance,usuallyas5%.
Thevalueofdependsonthesizeofeffectthatoneisinterestedin,andalsothe

samplesize.
Nowoftenwetalkaboutthepowerofastudytodetectaneffectofspecifiedsize,
wherethepoweris1-or100(1-)%.

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