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Chapter 4:

Terrestrial and Inland Water Systems


IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Working Group II

Past Assessments
Observational evidence from all continents and most oceans
shows that many natural systems are being affected by
regional climate changes, particularly temperature increases
(WGII AR4 SPM).
20% to 30% of the plant and animal species that had been
assessed to that time were considered to be at increased risk
of extinction if the global average temperature increase
exceeds 2C to 3C above the preindustrial level (Fischlin et
al., 2007).
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Keypoints of Chapter 4
Climate change is projected to be a powerful stressor on terrestrial and
freshwater ecosystems in the second half of the 21st century, especially
under high-warming scenarios such as RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 (high
confidence). Direct human impacts such as land use and land use change,
pollution, and water resource development will continue to dominate the
threats to most freshwater (high confidence) and terrestrial (medium
confidence) ecosystems globally over the next 3 decades. Changing
climate exacerbates other impacts on biodiversity (high confidence).
When terrestrial ecosystems are substantially altered (in terms of plant
cover, biomass, phenology, or plant group dominance), either through the
effects of climate change or through other mechanisms such as
conversion to agriculture or human settlement, the local, regional, and
global climates are also affected (high confidence).
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Keypoints of Chapter 4
The natural carbon sink provided by terrestrial ecosystems is partially
offset at the decadal time scale by carbon released through the
conversion of natural ecosystems (principally forests) to farm and grazing
land and through ecosystem degradation (high confidence). Carbon
stored in the terrestrial biosphere is vulnerable to loss back to the
atmosphere as a result of the direct and indirect effects of climate
change, deforestation, and degradation (high confidence). The net
transfer of CO2 from the atmosphere to the land is projected to weaken
during the 21st century (medium confidence).
Adaptation responses to climate change in the urban and agricultural
sectors can have unintended negative outcomes for terrestrial and
freshwater ecosystems (medium confidence). For example, adaptation
responses to counter increased variability of water supply, such as building more
and larger impoundments and increased water extraction, will in many cases
worsen the direct effects of climate change in freshwater ecosystems.
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Table 4-3

Land Use and Land Use Cover Change and its


contribution to Climate Change

FAQ 4.1 p.282


Land use and cover change (LUCC) is both a cause (WGI AR5 Section 6.1.2) and a consequence
of climate change. It is the major driver of current ecosystem and biodiversity change
(Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005b) and a key cause of changes in freshwater systems.
Contemporary drivers of LUCC include rising demand for food, fiber, and bioenergy and
changes in lifestyle and technologies (Hosonuma et al., 2012; Macedo et al., 2012). By midcentury climate change is projected to become a major driver of land cover change (Leadley et al.,
2010).
LUCC (and land use itself) contributes to changes in the climate through altering the GHG
concentrations in the atmosphere, surface and cloud albedos, surface energy balance, wind
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profiles, and evapotranspiration, among other mechanisms.

Box 4-1
p.284

Fig 4-3
p.285
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Comparison of (b) and (c) with (a) illustrates two scenarios of


how primary vegetation could change due to direct human
land use, irrespective of the effects of climate change. (b)
shows the land use scenario associated with RCP2.6, in which
global climate change is projected to be smaller than that
driving the biome shifts in (d) as a result of mitigation
measures, some of which involved land use. (c) shows the land
use scenario associated with RCP6.0, in which global climate
change is projected to be larger than RCP2.6 so biome shifts
similar to those in (d) may occur alongside the projected land
use changes in (c).

Fig 4-2
p.281

For example, climate change-driven biome shift is projected in


many Arctic land areas (d) which are unaffected by direct
human land use at the present day (a) and in the RCP2.6 and
6.0 land use scenarios (b, c), indicating that climate change is
the dominant influence on Arctic land ecosystems in these
scenarios. In contrast, in Borneo, none of the GCMs analyzed
by Gonzalez et al. (2010) project climate change-driven biome
shift (d), and instead a reduction in primary vegetation cover
occurs in the mitigation scenario RCP2.6 as a consequence of
direct human land use (b). A smaller reduction occurs in
RCP6.0. Land use is therefore projected to be the dominant
driver of change in Borneo in these scenarios. In the boreal
forest regions of North America, Europe, and north-west Asia,
climate change-driven biome shift (d) is projected in regions
already subject to some influence of present-day human land
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use (a), and increased land use leading to further reductions
in

Biome Shifts and Tipping Points

Fig 4-1
p.279

Tab 4-1
p.280

Boreal Tipping
Point

Fig 4-10
p.316

Box 4-4
p.317

Amazon Tipping
Point

Fig 4-8
p.309

Box 4-3
p.309

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Changes on Terrestrial and Inland Water Systems as Effects of Climate Change

Phenology -Spring advancement


Primary Productivity - ecosystem services such as food, timber,
and grazing are affected.
Biomass and Carbon Stocks - currently increasing but are
vulnerable to loss to the atmosphere as a result of rising
temperature, drought, and fire projected in the 21st century.
Evapotranspiration and Water Use Efficiency - rising CO2 decreases
transpiration and increases intrinsic water use efficiency.
Species Range, Abundance, and Extinction - geographical ranges
of many terrestrial and freshwater plant and animal species have
moved over the last several decades in response to warming and
that this movement is projected to accelerate over the coming
decades under high rates of climate change.
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Changes on Terrestrial and Inland Water Systems as Effects of Climate Change

FAQ 4.4 p.295


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Impacts of Climate Change to Major Ecological Systems


Forests and Woodlands
Climate change and forests interact strongly; air temperature, solar radiation, rainfall,
and atmospheric CO2 concentrations are major drivers of forest productivity and forest
dynamics, and forests help control climate through the large amounts of carbon they
can remove from the atmosphere or release, through absorption or reflection of solar
radiation (albedo), cooling through evapotranspiration, and the production of cloudforming aerosols (Arneth et al., 2010; Pan et al., 2011; Pielke et al., 2011).
Boreal Forests
Boreal forest productivity has been expected to increase as a result of warming (Hari
and Kulmata, 2008; Bronson et al., 2009; Zhao and Running, 2010; Van Herk et al.,
2011), and early analyses of satellite observations confirmed this trend in the 1980s
(medium confidence), more recent and longer-term assessments indicate with high
confidence that many areas of boreal forest have instead experienced productivity
declines (high confidence; Goetz et al., 2007; Parent and Verbyla, 2010; Beck, P.S.A. et
al., 2011; de Jong et al., 2011) due to warming-induced drought, specifically the greater
drying power of air (vapor pressure deficit; Williams et al., 2013), inducing
photosynthetic down-regulation of boreal tree species, particularly conifer species,
most of which are not adapted to the warmer conditions (Welp et al., 2007; Bonan,
2008; Van Herk et al., 2011).
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Impacts of Climate Change to Major Ecological Systems


Temperate Forests
Recent indications are that temperate forests and trees are beginning to
show signs of climate stress, including a reversal of tree growth
enhancement in some regions (North America: Silva et al., 2010; Silva and
Anand, 2013; Europe: Charru et al., 2010; Bontemps et al., 2011; Kint et al.,
2012); increasing tree mortality (Allen, C.D. et al., 2010); and changes in fire
regimes, insect outbreaks, and pathogen attacks (Adams et al., 2012;
Edburg et al., 2012).
Tropical Forests
Climate change, deforestation, fragmentation, fire, or human pressure place
virtually all (97%) of the remaining tropical dry forests at risk of replacement
or degradation (Miles et al., 2006). There is high confidence (robust
evidence, high agreement) that forest fire frequency and severity is
increasing through the interaction between severe droughts and land use.
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Forest Fires and Tree


Mortality

Fig 4.7 p.306

Box 4-2 p.306

Fig 4.6 p.304

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Impacts of Climate Change to Major Ecological Systems


Rivers, Lakes, Wetlands, and Peatlands
Freshwater ecosystems are considered to be among the most
threatened on the planet (Dudgeon et al., 2006; Vorosmarty et
al., 2010). Fragmentation of rivers by dams and the alteration of
natural flow regimes have led to major impacts on freshwater
biota (Pringle, 2001; Bunn and Arthington, 2002; Nilsson et al.,
2005; Reidy Liermann et al., 2012).
Floodplains and wetland areas have become occupied for
intensive urban and agricultural land use to the extent that
many are functionally disconnected from their rivers (Tockner et
al., 2008). Pollution from cities and agriculture, especially
nutrient loading, has resulted in declines in water quality and the
loss of essential ecosystem services (Allan, 2004).
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Impacts of Climate Change to Major Ecological Systems

FAQ 4.5 p.319


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Impacts of Climate Change to Key Ecosystem Services


Habitat for Biodiversity
Climate change can alter habitat for species by inducing:
(1) shifts in habitat distribution that are not followed by species,
(2) shifts in species distributions that move them outside of their
preferred
habitats, and
(3) changes in habitat quality (Dullinger et al., 2012; Urban et al.,
2012).
Timber and Pulp Production
In most areas with forest plantations, forest growth rates have
increased during the last decades, but the variability is large, and in
some areas production has decreased.
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Impacts of Climate Change to Key Ecosystem Services


Biomass-derived Energy
Bioenergy sources include traditional forms such as wood and charcoal from
forests and more modern forms such as the industrial burning of biomass
wastes, the production of ethanol and biodiesel, and plantations of bioenergy
crops.
Generally, potentials of bioenergy production under climate change may be
high, but are very uncertain (Haberl et al., 2011).
Pollination, Pest, and Disease Regulation
Insect pests are directly influenced by climate change, for example, through a
longer warm season during which to breed, and indirectly, for example,
through the quality of food plants (Jamieson et al., 2012) or via changes in
their natural enemies (predators and parasitoids).
After land use changes, climate change is regarded as the second most
relevant factor responsible for the decline of pollinators (Potts et al., 2010; for
other factors see Biesmeijer et al., 2006; Brittain et al., 2010a,b).
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Impacts of Climate Change to Key Ecosystem Services


Moderation of Climate Change, Variability, and Extremes
Afforestation or reforestation are potential climate mitigation options
(Van Minnen et al., 2008; Vaughan and Lenton, 2011; Fiorese and
Guariso, 2013; Singh et al., 2013) but, the net effect of afforestation on
the global climate is mixed and context dependent.
There are potential negative trade-offs between afforestation for
climate mitigation purposes and other ecosystem services, such as
water supply (Jackson et al., 2005) and biodiversity maintenance (CBD,
2012; Russell et al., 2012).
It has been suggested (Ridgwell et al., 2009) that planting large areas
of crop varieties with highly reflective leaves could help mitigate global
change. Model analyses indicate this geo-engineering strategy would
be marginally effective at high latitudes, but have undesirable climate
consequences at low latitudes.
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Adaptation and Its Limits


Autonomous Adaptation
Autonomous adaptation refers to the adjustments made by
ecosystems, including their human components, without external
intervention, in response to a changing environment (Smit et al., 2000)
also called spontaneous adaptation (Smit et al., 2007). In the
context of human systems it is sometimes called coping capacity.
The capacity for autonomous adaptation is part of resilience but is not
exactly synonymous (Walker et al., 2004).
Human-assisted Adaptation
Human-assisted adaptation means a deliberate intervention with the
intent of increasing the capacity of the target organism, ecosystem, or
socio-ecological system to survive and function at an acceptable level
in the presence of climate change. It is also known as planned
adaptation (Smit et al., 2007).
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Adaptation and Its Limits


Autonomous Adaptation
Phenological
Observed evolutionary and genetic responses to rapid changes in climate
Mechanisms mediating rapid evolutionary response to future climate
change
Migration of Species
Human-assisted Adaptation
Reduction of Non-Climate Stresses and Restoration of Degraded
Ecosystem
Size, Location, and Layout of Protected Areas
Landscape and Watershed Management
Assisted Migration
Ex-situ Conservation
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Adaptation and Its Limits

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Consequences and Costs of Inaction and Benefits of Action


The Cost of Policy Inaction (COPI) Project (ten Brink et al., 2008)
estimated the monetary costs of not meeting the 2010
biodiversity goals is EUR 14 trillion (based on 2007 values) in
2050.
Eliasch (2008) estimates the damage costs to forests as reaching
US$1 trillion a year by 2100. The study used the probabilistic
model (employed by Stern (2006)), which did not value effects on
biodiversity or water-related ecosystem services.
In addition to direct costs, further costs may result from tradeoffs between services: for example, afforestation for climate
mitigation and urban greening for climate adaptation may be
costly in terms of water provision (Chisholm, 2010; Jenerette et
al., 2011; Pataki et al., 2011).
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Consequences and Costs of Inaction and Benefits of Action

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Unintended Consequences of Adaptation and Mitigation


Several of the alternatives to fossil fuel require extensive use of
the land surface and thus have a direct impact on terrestrial
ecosystems and an indirect impact on inland water systems
(Paterson et al., 2008; Turner et al., 2010).
Policy shifts in developed countries favor the expansion of largescale bioenergy production, which places new pressures on
terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems (Searchinger et al., 2008;
Lapola et al., 2010), either through direct use of land or water or
indirectly by displacing food crops, which must then be grown
elsewhere.
Damming of river systems for hydropower can cause
fragmentation of the inland water habitat with implications for
fish species, and monitoring studies indicate that flooding of
ecosystems behind the dams can lead to declining populations.
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Unintended Consequences of Adaptation and Mitigation


Inappropriately sited wind farms can negatively impact on bird
populations (Drewitt and Langston, 2006) and can kill birds and
bats (e.g., Barclay et al., 2007). Effects can be reduced by careful
siting of turbines, for example by avoiding migration routes
(Drewitt and Langston, 2006).
Large-scale solar farms could impact local biodiversity if poorly
sited, but the impact can be reduced with appropriate planning
(Tsoutsos et al., 2005). Solar photovoltaic installations can
decrease local surface albedo, giving a small positive radiative
forcing.
Relocation or expansion of agricultural areas and settlements as
climate change adaptation measures could pose risks of habitat
fragmentation and loss similar to those discussed above in the
context of mitigation through bio-energy.
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Assisted migration may directly conflict with other conservation

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