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Past Assessments
Observational evidence from all continents and most oceans
shows that many natural systems are being affected by
regional climate changes, particularly temperature increases
(WGII AR4 SPM).
20% to 30% of the plant and animal species that had been
assessed to that time were considered to be at increased risk
of extinction if the global average temperature increase
exceeds 2C to 3C above the preindustrial level (Fischlin et
al., 2007).
2
Keypoints of Chapter 4
Climate change is projected to be a powerful stressor on terrestrial and
freshwater ecosystems in the second half of the 21st century, especially
under high-warming scenarios such as RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 (high
confidence). Direct human impacts such as land use and land use change,
pollution, and water resource development will continue to dominate the
threats to most freshwater (high confidence) and terrestrial (medium
confidence) ecosystems globally over the next 3 decades. Changing
climate exacerbates other impacts on biodiversity (high confidence).
When terrestrial ecosystems are substantially altered (in terms of plant
cover, biomass, phenology, or plant group dominance), either through the
effects of climate change or through other mechanisms such as
conversion to agriculture or human settlement, the local, regional, and
global climates are also affected (high confidence).
3
Keypoints of Chapter 4
The natural carbon sink provided by terrestrial ecosystems is partially
offset at the decadal time scale by carbon released through the
conversion of natural ecosystems (principally forests) to farm and grazing
land and through ecosystem degradation (high confidence). Carbon
stored in the terrestrial biosphere is vulnerable to loss back to the
atmosphere as a result of the direct and indirect effects of climate
change, deforestation, and degradation (high confidence). The net
transfer of CO2 from the atmosphere to the land is projected to weaken
during the 21st century (medium confidence).
Adaptation responses to climate change in the urban and agricultural
sectors can have unintended negative outcomes for terrestrial and
freshwater ecosystems (medium confidence). For example, adaptation
responses to counter increased variability of water supply, such as building more
and larger impoundments and increased water extraction, will in many cases
worsen the direct effects of climate change in freshwater ecosystems.
4
Table 4-3
Box 4-1
p.284
Fig 4-3
p.285
7
Fig 4-2
p.281
Fig 4-1
p.279
Tab 4-1
p.280
Boreal Tipping
Point
Fig 4-10
p.316
Box 4-4
p.317
Amazon Tipping
Point
Fig 4-8
p.309
Box 4-3
p.309
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