CHAPTER 3

PROBABILITY
CONCEPT

Definitions

Experiment :
A process that leads to the
occurrence of one and only one of
several possible observations.

Sample space :
The set of all possible outcomes of
an experiment.

Definition(cont.)
Event

:
A collection of one or more
outcomes of an experiment.

Union

of Events :
If A and B are two events in a
sample space S, then the event of A
union B, (AUB) is the event with the
elements of A or B.

Intersection of Events :
If A and B are two events in a
sample space S, then the event of
A intersect B, (AB) is the event
with the elements in both A and B.
Mutually Exclusive Events :
The occurrence of one event
means that none of the other
events can occur at the same time.

Complementary Events :
If A is an event in a sample space
S, then the complementary events
of A ( A ) is the other event in the
sample space S but not in A.
Independent Events

If A and B are two events in a

sample space S, then A and B are
independent events if the
occurrence of one does not affect
the probability of the other.

Probability Concept
Probability :
A value between zero and one,
describing the relative possibility
( chance or likelihood ) an event will
occur.
Pr obability of an event P ( A)

Number of favorable outcomes

n( A)

Total number of possible outcomes

n( S )

Probability Laws
i)
ii)

0 P(A) 1
For any events A and B then,
P(AUB)=P(A)+P(B)-P(AB)
iii) If A and B are mutually exclusive events
then, P(AUB) = P(A) + P(B)
iv) P(A)=1 P(A), where A is the
complementary event of A
v) If A is a subset of B, then P(A) P(B)
vi)
When A and B are independent events,
then P(AUB) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A) . P(B)
vii) For a sequence of mutually exclusive
events, P(S)=P(Ai)= 1.

Example
1. A pair of dice are tossed. Find the
probability of the following events:
i. A : total score of 5
ii. B : get doubles
iii. C : no doubles
iv. D : total score of 7 or 11
v. E : total score is more than 2

solution
The sample space,
(1,1), (1,2), (1,3), (1,4), (1,5), (1,6)
(2,1), (2,2), (2,3), (2,4), (2,5), (2,6)
(3,1), (3,2), (3,3), (3,4), (3,5), (3,6)
S = (4,1), (4,2), (4,3), (4,4), (4,5), (4,6)
(5,1), (5,2), (5,3), (5,4), (5,5), (5,6)
(6,1), (6,2), (6,3), (6,4), (6,5), (6,6)

Solution(cont.)
a)

A = {Event of total scoring 5}.

A = { (1,4), (2,3), (3,2), (4,1) } ,
n(A)=4 Thus, P(A)=4/36=1/9

b)

B = {Event of getting doubles}.

B={(1,1), (2,2), (3,3), (4,4), (5,5),
(6,6) }
n(B) = 6. Therefore,
P(B)=6/36=1/6

Solution(cont.)
c) C = {Event of no doubles}. C=B
Therefore,
P( C )=P(B)= 1 P(B)
= 1 1/6=5/6
d) D = {Event of total score 7 or 11}
Let F be an event for score 7 and G be
an event for score 11. Then,
F = { (1, 6), (2, 5), (3, 4), (4, 3), (5, 2),
(6, 1) }, ,

Solution(cont.)
P(F)=6/36=1/6
G

= { (5, 6), (6, 5) },n (G)=2 , P(G)=2/36

=1/18
Since F and G are mutually exclusive
events, that is there is no intersection
between F and G, therefore,
P(D)=P(FUG)=P(F)+P(G)
=1/6 + 1/18 =2/9

solution(cont.)
e) E = {Event of total score is at least
equal to 3}.
If E is the event of total score is at
least equal to 3, then E is the event of
total score is less than 3. So, E = { (1,
1) }
n(E)= 1, P(E)=1 P(E)
=1 1/36
= 35/36

EXERCISES
1. From a set of cards numbered 1 to
20 a card is drawn at random. Find
the probability that the number is
i.
ii.

divisible by 4 iii. greater than 15

divisible by 4 and greater than 15

If the card is divisible by 4 and it is

not replaced, find the probability
that the second card drawn is even.

2. In a group of 30 students, all study

at least one of the subjects, physics
and biology. 20 attend the physics
class and 21 attend the biology class.
Find the probability that a student
chosen at random studies both
physics and biology.
3. For events A and B, it is known
that P(A)=2/3, P(AUB)=7/12 and
P(AB) = 5/12. Find P(B).

Exercise (cont.)
4. A balloon is drawn from a box
containing 10 red, 15 black, 5 green
and 10 yellow balloons. Find the
probability that the balloon is
i. Black
iv. not green or yellow
ii. not yellow
v. red or black or
green
iii. not blue

Exercise (cont.)
5. In a basket, there are 5 apples, 3 oranges
and 6 mangoes. Sarah wants to choose 2
fruits, so she picks them at random, one
fruit at a time without putting the first fruit
back into the basket.
a. Draw a tree diagram to illustrate the
information.
b. Find the probability of she picking,
i. 1 orange and 1 mango (0.1978)
ii. 2 fruits of the same type (0.3077)

END OF CHAPTER 1