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1
Past Assessments
Observational evidence from all continents and most oceans
shows that many natural systems are being affected by
regional climate changes, particularly temperature increases
(WGII AR4 SPM).
20% to 30% of the plant and animal species that had been
assessed to that time were considered to be at increased risk
of extinction if the global average temperature increase
exceeds 2C to 3C above the preindustrial level (Fischlin et
al., 2007).
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Keypoints of Chapter 4
Climate change is projected to be a powerful stressor on terrestrial and
freshwater ecosystems in the second half of the 21st century, especially
under high-warming scenarios such as RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 (high
confidence). Direct human impacts such as land use and land use change,
pollution, and water resource development will continue to dominate the
threats to most freshwater (high confidence) and terrestrial (medium
confidence) ecosystems globally over the next 3 decades. Changing
climate exacerbates other impacts on biodiversity (high confidence).
Fig 4-3
p.285
7
Comparison of (b) and (c) with (a) illustrates two scenarios of
how primary vegetation could change due to direct human
land use, irrespective of the effects of climate change. (b)
shows the land use scenario associated with RCP2.6, in which
global climate change is projected to be smaller than that
driving the biome shifts in (d) as a result of mitigation
measures, some of which involved land use. (c) shows the land
use scenario associated with RCP6.0, in which global climate
change is projected to be larger than RCP2.6 so biome shifts
similar to those in (d) may occur alongside the projected land
use changes in (c).
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Changes on Terrestrial and Inland Water Systems as Effects of Climate Change
12
Impacts of Climate Change to Major Ecological Systems
Forests and Woodlands
Climate change and forests interact strongly; air temperature, solar radiation, rainfall,
and atmospheric CO2 concentrations are major drivers of forest productivity and forest
dynamics, and forests help control climate through the large amounts of carbon they
can remove from the atmosphere or release, through absorption or reflection of solar
radiation (albedo), cooling through evapotranspiration, and the production of cloud-
forming aerosols (Arneth et al., 2010; Pan et al., 2011; Pielke et al., 2011).
Boreal Forests
Boreal forest productivity has been expected to increase as a result of warming (Hari
and Kulmata, 2008; Bronson et al., 2009; Zhao and Running, 2010; Van Herk et al.,
2011), and early analyses of satellite observations confirmed this trend in the 1980s
(medium confidence), more recent and longer-term assessments indicate with high
confidence that many areas of boreal forest have instead experienced productivity
declines (high confidence; Goetz et al., 2007; Parent and Verbyla, 2010; Beck, P.S.A. et
al., 2011; de Jong et al., 2011) due to warming-induced drought, specifically the greater
drying power of air (vapor pressure deficit; Williams et al., 2013), inducing
photosynthetic down-regulation of boreal tree species, particularly conifer species,
most of which are not adapted to the warmer conditions (Welp et al., 2007; Bonan,
2008; Van Herk et al., 2011). 13
Impacts of Climate Change to Major Ecological Systems
Temperate Forests
Recent indications are that temperate forests and trees are beginning to
show signs of climate stress, including a reversal of tree growth
enhancement in some regions (North America: Silva et al., 2010; Silva and
Anand, 2013; Europe: Charru et al., 2010; Bontemps et al., 2011; Kint et al.,
2012); increasing tree mortality (Allen, C.D. et al., 2010); and changes in fire
regimes, insect outbreaks, and pathogen attacks (Adams et al., 2012;
Edburg et al., 2012).
Tropical Forests
Climate change, deforestation, fragmentation, fire, or human pressure place
virtually all (97%) of the remaining tropical dry forests at risk of replacement
or degradation (Miles et al., 2006). There is high confidence (robust
evidence, high agreement) that forest fire frequency and severity is
increasing through the interaction between severe droughts and land use.
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Forest Fires and Tree
Mortality
15
Fig 4.6 p.304
Impacts of Climate Change to Major Ecological Systems
Rivers, Lakes, Wetlands, and Peatlands
Freshwater ecosystems are considered to be among the most
threatened on the planet (Dudgeon et al., 2006; Vorosmarty et
al., 2010). Fragmentation of rivers by dams and the alteration of
natural flow regimes have led to major impacts on freshwater
biota (Pringle, 2001; Bunn and Arthington, 2002; Nilsson et al.,
2005; Reidy Liermann et al., 2012).
Floodplains and wetland areas have become occupied for
intensive urban and agricultural land use to the extent that
many are functionally disconnected from their rivers (Tockner et
al., 2008). Pollution from cities and agriculture, especially
nutrient loading, has resulted in declines in water quality and the
loss of essential ecosystem services (Allan, 2004).
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Impacts of Climate Change to Major Ecological Systems
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Impacts of Climate Change to Key Ecosystem Services
Habitat for Biodiversity
Climate change can alter habitat for species by inducing:
(1) shifts in habitat distribution that are not followed by species,
(2) shifts in species distributions that move them outside of their
preferred habitats, and
(3) changes in habitat quality (Dullinger et al., 2012; Urban et al.,
2012).
Human-assisted Adaptation
Reduction of Non-Climate Stresses and Restoration of Degraded
Ecosystem
Size, Location, and Layout of Protected Areas
Landscape and Watershed Management
Assisted Migration
Ex-situ Conservation
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Adaptation and Its Limits
23
Consequences and Costs of Inaction and Benefits of Action
The Cost of Policy Inaction (COPI) Project (ten Brink et al., 2008)
estimated the monetary costs of not meeting the 2010
biodiversity goals is EUR 14 trillion (based on 2007 values) in
2050.
Eliasch (2008) estimates the damage costs to forests as reaching
US$1 trillion a year by 2100. The study used the probabilistic
model (employed by Stern (2006)), which did not value effects on
biodiversity or water-related ecosystem services.
In addition to direct costs, further costs may result from trade-
offs between services: for example, afforestation for climate
mitigation and urban greening for climate adaptation may be
costly in terms of water provision (Chisholm, 2010; Jenerette et
al., 2011; Pataki et al., 2011). 24
Consequences and Costs of Inaction and Benefits of Action
25
Unintended Consequences of Adaptation and Mitigation
Several of the alternatives to fossil fuel require extensive use of
the land surface and thus have a direct impact on terrestrial
ecosystems and an indirect impact on inland water systems
(Paterson et al., 2008; Turner et al., 2010).
Policy shifts in developed countries favor the expansion of large-
scale bioenergy production, which places new pressures on
terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems (Searchinger et al., 2008;
Lapola et al., 2010), either through direct use of land or water or
indirectly by displacing food crops, which must then be grown
elsewhere.
Damming of river systems for hydropower can cause
fragmentation of the inland water habitat with implications for
fish species, and monitoring studies indicate that flooding of
ecosystems behind the dams can lead to declining populations. 26
Unintended Consequences of Adaptation and Mitigation
Inappropriately sited wind farms can negatively impact on bird
populations (Drewitt and Langston, 2006) and can kill birds and
bats (e.g., Barclay et al., 2007). Effects can be reduced by careful
siting of turbines, for example by avoiding migration routes
(Drewitt and Langston, 2006).
Large-scale solar farms could impact local biodiversity if poorly
sited, but the impact can be reduced with appropriate planning
(Tsoutsos et al., 2005). Solar photovoltaic installations can
decrease local surface albedo, giving a small positive radiative
forcing.
Relocation or expansion of agricultural areas and settlements as
climate change adaptation measures could pose risks of habitat
fragmentation and loss similar to those discussed above in the
context of mitigation through bio-energy.
Assisted migration may directly conflict with other conservation
27