Mathematics

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Probability
and Chance
What Is
Probability?
Probability is a measure of how
likely it is for an event to happen.
We name a probability with a
number from 0 to 1.
If an event is certain to happen, then
the probability of the event is 1.
If an event is certain not to happen,
then the probability of the event is
0.
We can even express probability in
 CHANCE
Chance is how likely it is that something
will
happen. To state a chance, we use a
percent.

Certain not to happen ---------------------------0%

Equally likely to happen or not to happen
----- 50 %
Certain to happen -----------------------------------
100%
Examples Of Chance
When a meteorologist states that the chance
of rain is 50%, the meteorologist is saying that
it is equally likely to rain or not to rain. If the
chance of rain rises to 80%, it is more likely to
rain. If the chance drops to 20%, then it may
rain, but it probably will not rain.

Donald is rolling a number cube labeled 1 to

6. Which of the following is LEAST LIKELY?
an even number
an odd number
a number greater than 5
The History of
Probability
Probability originated from the study of
games of chance. Tossing a dice or spinning a
roulette wheel are examples of deliberate
randomization that are similar to random
sampling. Games of chance were not studied
by mathematicians until the sixteenth and
seventeenth centuries. Probability theory as a
branch of mathematics arose in the
seventeenth century when French gamblers
asked Blaise Pascal and Pierre de Fermat
(both well known pioneers in mathematics)
for help in their gambling. In the eighteenth
 PROBABILITY
In the twentieth century probability is
used to control the flow of traffic through a
highway system, a telephone interchange,
or a computer processor; find the genetic
makeup of individuals or populations;
figure out the energy states of subatomic
particles; Estimate the spread of rumors;
and predict the rate of return in risky
investments.
Predictable and Unpredictable Occurrence
Predictable Occurrences:
The time an object takes to hit the ground from a
certain height can easily be predicted using simple
physics. The position of asteroids in three years from
now can also be predicted using advanced
technology.
Unpredictable Occurrences:
Not everything in life, however, can be predicted
using science and technology. For example, a toss of
a coin may result in either a head or a tail. Also, the
sex of a new-born baby may turn out to be male or
female. In these cases, the individual outcomes are
uncertain. With experience and enough repetition,
however, a regular pattern of outcomes can be seen
(by which certain predictions can be made).
 Formulae Of
Probability
A dice is thrown 1000 times with frequencies for the
outcomes 1,2,3,4,5 and 6 :-

Outcome 1 2 3 4 5 6

Frequency 179 150 157 149 175 190

Ans. Let Ei denote the event of getting outcome i where
i=1,2,3,4,5,6:-
Then; Probability of outcome 1= Frequency of 1

Total no. of outcomes

= 179 1000
= 0.179
Therefore, the sum of all the probabilities , i.e, E 1 + E2 + E3+
E4+ E 5 + E 6
is equal to 1.
 To know the opinion of students for the subject
maths, a survey of 200 students was
conducted :- Opinion No. of students
Likeness 135
Dislikeness 65

Find the probability for both the opinions :

Ans. Total no. of observations = 200
P(Likeness of the students) = No. of students
who like
Total no. of
students
= 135 200
= 0.675
P(Dislikeness of the students) = 65 200
RANDOM
PHENOMENON
An event or phenomenon is
called random if individual
outcomes are uncertain but there
is, however, a regular distribution
of relative frequencies in a large
number of repetitions. For
example, after tossing a coin a
significant number of times, it can
be seen that about half the time,
the coin lands on the head side
and about half the time it lands on
the tail side.
Note of interest: At around
1900, an English statistician
 Applications
Two major applications of probability theory in
everyday life are in risk assessment and in
trade on commodity markets.
A significant application of probability theory
in everyday life is reliability. Many consumer
products, such as automobiles and consumer
electronics, utilize reliability theory in the
design of the product in order to reduce the
probability of failure. The probability of failure
may be closely associated with the product's
warranty.
Monty Hall Problem
You're given the choice of three doors:
Behind one door is a car; behind the
others, goats.
You pick a door, say No. 1
The host, who knows what's behind the
doors, opens another door, say No. 3,
which has a goat.
Do you want to pick door No. 2 instead?
Host reveals
Goat A
or
Host reveals
Goat B

Host must
reveal Goat B

Host must
reveal Goat A
MATHEMATICS
THE BASE OF
EVERYTHING !!!

Made by:-
Shivansh Jagga
Simar Kohli
Arpit Dash