ROLE OF THE INDIAN AND

ATLANTIC OCEANS ON THE

CLIMATE VARIABILITY OF
EASTERN AFRICA
Charles C. Mutai
Kenya Meteorological Department
P. O. Box 30259, Nairobi Kenya
 CURRENT UNDERSTANDING
OF EAST AFRICAN CLIMATE
Rainfall is the climatic factor of maximum significance
Seasonal rainfall patterns related to migration of ITCZ:
long rains (MAM), short rains (S/OND)
Interannual variability of seasonal rains results from
complex interactions of forced and free atmospheric
variations (OND variability stronger than MAM):
SST forcing in Pacific, Atlantic and Indian (Ogallo et al.
1988; Nyenzi 1992; Ininda 1994; Mutai et al. 1988; among others)
OND rainfall positively related to ENSO
Large/synoptic/meso - scale circulations; Anticyclones
cyclones, easterly/westerly perturbations (Nakamura 1969;
Anyamba 1984; Hastenrath et al. 1993; Okoola 1999; Mutai and
Ward 2000; etc).
 CURRENT UNDERSTANDING
OF EAST AFRICAN CLIMATE (2)
Predictive schemes based solely on ENSO showed
skill (Farmer 1988; Hutchinson 1988; KMD/DMCN; etc.)
Anomalous SST in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans -
associated with rainfall fluctuations (Reverdin et al.
1986; Flohn 1987; Nicholson and Entekhabi 1987; Webster et
al. 1999; Saji et al. 1999; Black et al. 2002; among others)
Two SSTs (of the three) predictors used by Mutai et
al. (1998) largely independent ENSO ~ SST
variability in the northwestern tropical Pacific - Indian
Ocean and in the equatorial - tropical South Atlantic.
GCM simulations (Goddard and Graham 1999; Latif et al.
1999) indicated strong role for the Indian Ocean SSTs
in East African rainfall variability
SST gradients in the Atlantic and Indian Ocean are
currently used in monthly / seasonal climate
monitoring and forecasting (KMD and DMCN)
MEAN MONTHLY RAINFALL (mm)
OVER EAST AFRICA, 1931-1985

Long Rains

Short Rains

0-25 25-50 50-100 100-200 > 200 mm

Nyenzi (1992)
REGIONALIZATION OF E.A. RAINFALL

Indeje et al. (2000)

OND SST / OLR TELECONNECTIONS

X -1
 MAM SST/OLR TELECONNECTIONS
1951-96

1974-96
OND RAINFALL-WIND TELECONNECTIONS

1974-96
OND RAINFALL-WIND TELECONNECTIONS

E
N
S
O

v
a
r
i
a
n
c
e

-
r
CONTRIBUTION OF ATLANTIC OCEAN IN
CLIMATE VARIABILITY OF EAST AFRICA
Mutai et al. (1998) developed an empirical
prediction for East Africa OND rainfall based
on three precursor global SST REOFs:
SST REOF4 closely reflect the ENSO signal
SST REOF5 - SST variance in northwestern
tropical Pacific - Indian Ocean
SST REOF2 - variability in the equatorial and
tropical South Atlantic
ROTATED SST PREDICTORS (Mutai et al. 1998)
SST REOF5

SST REOF4

SST REOF2
OND TELECONNECTIONS WITH
SEPTEMBER SST REOF2, 1974-
96
PENTAD 850-hPa WIND TELECONNECTIONS

Oct-Nov 1979-96
PENTAD 200-hPa WIND TELECONNECTIONS

Oct-Nov 1979-96
 CONTRIBUTION OF INDIAN
OCEAN IN CLIMATE VARIABILITY
OF EAST AFRICA
Equatorial Indian Ocean variability can be simply
be computed as a multivariate measure of key
variables over the west (W), East (E) and central (C)
Indian Ocean basin:

IOD = (TW - TE) - (PW - PE) - UC

where T, P and U represents the SST, sea-level

pressure (SLP) and near-surface zonal wind index,
respectively.
PENTAD COMPOSITE 850-hPa WINDS

Cold Phase ~
Warm Phase ~
W. Indian Ocean
W. Indian Ocean
SURFACE WIND FIELDS - Reverdin et al. 1986

Cf. 1997
NOV 1961

Climatology
 GCM CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
Goddard and Graham (1999) used observed SSTs
1970-92
Latif et al. (1999) considered case of heavy rains
of Dec-Jan 1997/98

Isolated the primary control of SST anomalies

in the Indian Ocean only, then in the Pacific
and then in both the Indian and Pacific Oceans
Role of Indian Ocean in climate variability over
East Africa
GCM CLIMATE SIMULATIONS - Goddard and Graham 1999

1970-92
 SUMMARY
Understanding mechanisms for Indian /
Atlantic Ocean dynamics is important for
East African climate

Observational network in Indian Ocean?

Utility of satellite-derived and reanalysis
data