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10.1 Introduction
Dealers must maintain inventory on both sides of the market.
Inventory risk: buy order flows and sell order flows are not balanced.
Bid/ask spread compensates inventory risk.
Inventory models
- risk-neutral: Garman (1976), Amihud & Mendelson (1980)
- with risk aversion: Stoll (1978)
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10. Market microstructure: inventory models
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10. Market microstructure: inventory models
- Orders follow Poisson process with arrival rates for buy orders a(pa)
and sell orders b(pb)
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10. Market microstructure: inventory models
10.2 Garmans model (continued I)
- Lambdas follow the Walrasian model, i.e. a(pa) monotonically
decreases and b(pb) monotonically increases.
- The probability of a buy (sell) order to arrive within the time interval
[t, t+dt] equals adt (bdt).
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- Rk(t) is probability that dealers stock supply at time t equals k.
10. Market microstructure: inventory models
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10. Market microstructure: inventory models
Outcome:
- Optimal bid and ask prices decrease (increase) monotonically
when inventory is growing (falling) beyond the preferred size.
- Bid/ask spread increases as inventory increasingly deviates
from the preferred size
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10. Market microstructure: inventory models
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10. Market microstructure: inventory models
- Experiment:
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10. Market microstructure: inventory models
10.4 Risk aversion (continued)
In both experiments expected outcome is $1500. Hence risk-neutral investors
will split equally between two options. Yet majority choose option b) in the first
situation and option a) in the second one. Hence majority is risk-averse.
- Constant relative risk aversion (CRRA): $1000 is not the same for all:
U(W) = W1-a/(1 a), a 1
= -ln(W), a=1
zCRRA (W) = -WU(W)/U(W) = a is constant 10
10. Market microstructure: inventory models
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10. Market microstructure: inventory models
Vickrey auction: bidders submit sealed bids and a bidder with the highest bid
wins; yet the winner pays the second high bid rather than his own price.
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10. Market microstructure: inventory models
10.6 Summary
Inventory models address the dealers problem of maintaining inventory on both sides
of the market. Since order flows are not synchronized, dealers face possibility of
running out of cash (bankruptcy) or out of inventory (failure).
Risk-neutral models (Garman (1976), Amihud & Mendelson (1980)) are based on the
Walrasian framework according to which lower (higher) price drives (depresses)
demand. These models demonstrate that rational dealers attempting to maximize
their profits must establish certain bid/ask spread and manipulate its size for
maintaining preferred inventory.
Risk aversion is a concept that refers to individuals reluctance to choose a bargain
with uncertain payoff rather than a bargain with certain but possibly a lower payoff.
The Stolls model yields the bid/ask spread that depends linearly on the dealers risk
aversion and the asset volatility.
In the multi-period model, the optimal spread narrows since the risk for maintaining
inventory diminishes as trading comes to the end. The spread also decreases with
growing number of competing dealers as the risk is spread among them.
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