Fraying Bonds of Comradeship?

:
The Future of Sino-North Korean
Relations
2 Asia Future Conference
nd

Bali, Indonesia
22-24 August 2014

Dr. Francis Schortgen

Department of Political Science & International Studies
University of Mount Union
Alliance Dynamics in International
Politics

Four main research strands

Origin & formation bandwagoning/balancing considerations
Manifestation & effect balance of threat & incidence of war
Credibility & reliability peace and stability
Longevity & termination declining credibility & intra-allied
control

Alliance duration & alliance fatigue

Changing threat perceptions
Regime type
Divergent national capabilities & priorities
Ideological divisions
Domestic socio-economic considerations
Cost-benefit considerations
 Sino-DPRK Relations: Chinese
Perspective

Still as close and lips and teeth ( , chn

wng ch hn)?

no one should be allowed to throw a region and

even the whole world into chaos for selfish gains.
Xi Jinping, 7 April 2013

The Korean peninsula is right on China's doorstep.

We have a red line, that is, we will not allow war or
instability on the Korean peninsula
Wang Yi, 8 March 2014
Sino-DPRK Relations: International
Perspective

I think it's clear to everybody in the world that no country

in the world has as close a relationship or as significant an
impact on the DPRK than China
- John Kerry (12 April 2013)

China has a unique and critical role that it can play due
to its economic, its geographic, its political, and its
historical, cultural ties with North Korea. No country has a
greater potential to influence North Koreas behavior than
China, given their extensive trading relationship with the
Northour belief is that China can do more now to urge
North Korea to begin taking action to come into compliance
with its international obligations
- John Kerry (13 February 2014)
From Brothers-in-Arms to Allies at
Arms Length?

Ideological considerations

Socio-economic considerations

Geo-political/geo-strategic
considerations
Where To? Sino-DPRK Relations in the
21st Century

To hope for a consequential change in the

nature of the China-North Korea relationship in
the near-term is human. To expect it to happen
is not only unrealistic but it also serves powerful
reminder of the lack of contextual understanding
and the wilful ignorance of how the various North
Korea policy options are intricately related to
Chinas national interests. To demand it to
happen, meanwhile, would be the most
counterproductive course of action of all.
Mission impossible?