Professional Documents
Culture Documents
and Statistics
Twelfth Edition
Chapter 4
Probability and Probability
Distributions
Some graphic screen captures from Seeing Statistics Copyright 2006 Brooks/Cole
Some images 2001-(current year) www.arttoday.com A division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
What is Probability?
In Chapters 2 and 3, we used graphs and
numerical measures to describe data sets
which were usually samples.
We measured how often using
Relative
Relative frequency
frequency == f/n
f/n
As n gets larger,
Sample Population
And How often
= Relative frequency Probability
Copyright 2006 Brooks/Cole
A division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
Basic Concepts
An experiment is the process by which
an observation (or measurement) is
obtained.
Experiment: Record an age
Experiment: Toss a die
Experiment: Record an opinion (yes, no)
Experiment: Toss two coins
A B A B
A B A B
S
AC
PP((AA
BB)) PP((AA)) PP((BB))PP((AA
BB))
A B
P(A
P(A )) == 11 P(A)
CC
P(A)
Copyright 2006 Brooks/Cole
A division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
Example
Select a student at random from
the classroom. Define:
Brown Not Brown
A: male
P(A) = 60/120 Male 20 40
B: female Female 30 30
A and B are
P(B)
P(B) == 1-
1- P(A)
P(A)
complementary, so that == 1-
1- 60/120
60/120 ==40/120
40/120
Copyright 2006 Brooks/Cole
A division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
Calculating Probabilities for
Intersections
In the previous example, we found P(A B)
directly from the table. Sometimes this is
impractical or impossible. The rule for calculating
P(A B) depends on the idea of independent
and dependent events.
Two
Two events,
events, A
A and
and B,
B, are
are said
said to
to be
be
independent
independent ifif and
and only
only ifif the
the probability
probability
that
that event
event A
A occurs
occurs does
does not
not change,
change,
depending
depending onon whether
whether or
or not
not event
event BB has
has
occurred.
occurred. Copyright 2006 Brooks/Cole
A division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
Conditional Probabilities
The probability that A occurs, given
that event B has occurred is called
the conditional probability of A
given B and is defined as
PP((AA BB))
PP((AA||BB)) ifif PP((BB)) 00
PP((BB))
given
Copyright 2006 Brooks/Cole
A division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
Example 1
Toss a fair coin twice. Define
A: head on second toss
B: head on first toss
P(A|B)
P(A|B) ==
HH
HH 1/4 P(A|not
P(A|not B)
B) ==
HT
HT 1/4
P(A) does not A and B are
TH 1/4
TH change, whether independent!
1/4 B happens or
TT
TT
not
Copyright 2006 Brooks/Cole
A division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
Example 2
A bowl contains five M&Ms, two red and three blue.
Randomly select two candies, and define
A: second candy is red.
B: first candy is blue.
m P(A|B)
P(A|B) =P(2
=P(2nd red|1
nd
red|1st blue)=
st
blue)=2/4
2/4 ==1/2
1/2
m m
P(A|not
P(A|not B)
B) == P(2
P(2nd red|1
nd
red|1st red)
st
red) == 1/4
1/4
m m
A Sk
A
A S1
Sk
S2.
P(A) P(A
P(A) == P(A P(A
SS11)) ++ P(A SS22)) ++ P(A
++ P(A SSkk))
== P(S
P(S11)P(A|S
)P(A|S11)) ++ P(S
P(S22)P(A|S
)P(A|S22)) ++
++ P(S
P(Skk)P(A|S
)P(A|Skk))
PP((SSii))PP((AA|| SSii))
PP((SSii || AA)) forii 11,, 22,...k
for ,...k
PP((SSii))PP((AA|| SSii))
We PP((MM))PP((HH| |MM))
Weknow:
know: PP((MM | |HH))
P(F)
P(F) ==
.49 PP((MM))PP((HH| |MM))PP((FF))PP((HH| |FF))
P(M) .51
P(M) ==
.51
.51 (.(.12
12))
.61
P(H|F) .61
P(H|F) == .08 .51 (.12 ) . 49 (.
.51 (.12) .49 (.08) 08)
P(H|M)
P(H|M) == .12
Copyright 2006 Brooks/Cole
A division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
Random Variables
A quantitative variable x is a random variable if
the value that it assumes, corresponding to the
outcome of an experiment is a chance or random
event.
Random variables can be discrete or
continuous.
Examples:
x = SAT score for a randomly selected student
x = number of people in a room at a randomly
selected time of day
x = number on the upper face of a randomly
tossed die Copyright 2006 Brooks/Cole
A division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
Probability Distributions for
Discrete Random Variables
The probability distribution for a
discrete random variable x resembles
the relative frequency distributions we
constructed in Chapter 1. It is a graph,
table or formula that gives the possible
values of x and the probability p(x)
associated with each value.
We
We must
must have
have
00 pp((xx))11and
and pp((xx))11
Copyright 2006 Brooks/Cole
A division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
Example
Toss a fair coin three times and
define x = number of heads.
x x p(x)
HHH
HHH
1/8 3 P(x
P(x == 0)
0) == 1/8
1/8 0 1/8
HHT
HHT
1/8
P(x
P(x == 1)
1) == 3/8
3/8 1 3/8
2
HTH
HTH P(x
P(x == 2)
2) == 3/8
3/8 2 3/8
1/8 2 P(x
THH
THH
P(x == 3)
3) == 1/8
1/8 3 1/8
1/8 2
HTT
HTT 1/8 1 Probability
Probability
THT
THT Histogram
1/8 1 Histogramfor
forxx
TTH
TTH 1/8 1
TTT
TTT 1/8 0 Copyright 2006 Brooks/Cole
A division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
Probability Distributions
Probability distributions can be used to describe
the population, just as we described samples in
Chapter 1.
Shape: Symmetric, skewed, mound-shaped
Outliers: unusual or unlikely measurements
Center and spread: mean and standard
deviation. A population mean is called and a
population standard deviation is called
deviation::
22
Standard
Standarddeviation
Copyright 2006 Brooks/Cole
A division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
Example
Toss a fair coin 3 times and
record x the number of heads.
x p(x) xp(x) (x-2p(x) 12
xp ( x ) 12 1.5
0 1/8 0 (-1.5)2(1/8) xp( x) 1.5
88
1 3/8 3/8 (-0.5)2(3/8)
2 3/8 6/8 (0.5)2(3/8)
3 1/8 3/8 (1.5) (1/8)
2
22
((xx)) pp((xx))
22
..28125
22
28125..09375
09375..09375
09375..28125
28125..75
75
..75
75 ..688
688
Copyright 2006 Brooks/Cole
A division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
Example
The probability distribution for x the
number of heads in tossing 3 fair coins.
Symmetric;
Shape? mound-shaped
Outliers? None
Center? = 1.5
Spread? = .688
Copyright 2006 Brooks/Cole
A division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
Key Concepts
I. Experiments and the Sample Space
1. Experiments, events, mutually exclusive events,
simple events
2. The sample space
3. Venn diagrams, tree diagrams, probability tables
II. Probabilities
1. Relative frequency definition of probability
2. Properties of probabilities
a. Each probability lies between 0 and 1.
b. Sum of all simple-event probabilities equals 1.
3. P(A), the sum of the probabilities for all simple events in A
Copyright 2006 Brooks/Cole
A division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
Key Concepts
III. Counting Rules
1. mn Rule; extended mn Rule
2. Permutations: n!
Pn
r
(n r )!
n!
3. Combinations: Crn
r!(n r )!
IV. Event Relations
1. Unions and intersections
2. Events
a. Disjoint or mutually exclusive: P(A B) 0
b. Complementary: P(A) 1 P(AC )