Statistical Error Types

Rejecting the baseline condition when it is true is a

False Rejection error, F(r).

Decision: Not hazardous when it actually is

hazardous

Accepting the baseline condition when it is false is

a False Acceptance error, F(a).

Decision: Hazardous when it actually is not

hazardous
 Decision Errors:
Synonyms and Plain English
If the baseline assumption is that the program or site is in
compliance, then:

False Rejection Error F(r), Type I Error, False Positive

Deciding program or site not in compliance when it is
An overreaction to a situation
Wasted resources, unnecessary expenditure
False Acceptance Error F(a), Type II Error, False Negative
Deciding program or site is in compliance when it is not
A missed opportunity for correction
Allowing a hazard to public health or the ecosystem
 False Rejection and False
Acceptance
Baseline Condition: True mean level equal or below standard
Alternative: True mean level above standard

In Actuality
Below Above
Standard Standard

False
Below Correct
Decision Acceptance
Standard
based on F(a)
a sample False
Above Correct
Rejection
Standard
F(r)
 Decision Errors:
Synonyms and Plain English
If the baseline assumption is that the program or site is NOT in
compliance, then:

False Rejection Error F(r), Type I Error, False Positive

Deciding program or site is in compliance when it is not
A missed opportunity for correction
Allowing a hazard to public health or the ecosystem

False Acceptance Error F(a), Type II Error, False Negative

Deciding program or site not in compliance when it is
An overreaction to a situation
Wasted resources, unnecessary expenditure
 The Probability of Making False
Rejection Decision Errors
If the true mean is much
greater than the action level,
few low readings will occur.
So, there is a small chance of
reaching a wrong conclusion.
50 ppm 100 ppm
Action Level True Mean

If the true mean is close to the

action level, many low readings
will occur. Erroneous
conclusions are much more likely.

75 ppm 100 ppm

Action Level True Mean