Professional Documents
Culture Documents
John Murphy
U.S. Chamber of Commerce
Who Said It?
2
We are absolutely going to keep
trading. I am not an isolationist I
want free trade, but its got to be
fair trade. Its got to be good deals
for the United States The fact
that Im negotiating trade will mean
that were going to make good
trade deals.
TRUMP 2016
3
NAFTA has been devastating and
a big mistake We should use the
hammer of a potential opt-out as
leverage to ensure that we actually
get labor and environmental
standards that are enforced.
OBAMA 2008
4
We need to crack down on currency
manipulation which can be
destructive for American workers.
China, Japan and other Asian
economies kept their goods artificially
cheap for years by holding down the
value of their currencies We need to
expand our toolbox to include
effective new remedies, such as
duties or tariffs and other measures.
CLINTON 2016
5
The Opportunity
and the
Challenge of Trade
6
The Opportunity of Trade
GROWTH: Exports rose by 50% in 2009-
2014
Led by growth in exports to Mexico and
Canada, which topped $200B
JOBS: 41 million American jobs depend on
international trade
One-third of U.S. jobs created in those years
were in trade-intensive industries
MANUFACTURING: 1/2 of the 12 million U.S.
manufacturing jobs depend on exports
AGRICULTURE: 1 in 3 acres on U.S. farms
planted for export
7
The Challenge of Trade
8
The Solution?
New, Market-
Opening
Trade Agreements
9
10
11
12
Trade Surplus?!
13
Others Moving Ahead
14
Trump Administration Views
15
Economic Nationalism
16
Trumps 7-Part Trade Plan
17
Withdraw from the TPP
19
Manufacturing Concerns
20
Renegotiate/Withdraw from
NAFTA
[NAFTA is] a disaster. ... We will either
renegotiate it, or we will break it.
Because, you know, every agreement
has an end
Threat to impose a 20% (or 35%) tariff on
imports from Mexico to balance deficit
21
The Facts on NAFTA
23
Trumps China Pledges
1) Declare China a currency manipulator
2) Force China to uphold intellectual
property laws and stop their unfair and
unlawful practice of forcing U.S.
companies to share proprietary
technology with Chinese competitors as
a condition of entry to Chinas market
3) End Chinas illegal export subsidies and
lax labor and environmental standards
24
Other countries/issues
Cuba
Russia
Iran
Ex-Im Bank
25
Public Attitudes
toward Trade
26
Trade Seen as Opportunity (74%), Not Threat
(23%)
27
But Older, White, GOP-Leaning Men More
Negative
Free trade agreements between the U.S. and other
countries have been a __ for the United States
28
Reuters/Ipsos Poll (October): Voters Favor
Clintons Trade Policies Over Trumps 43% to
37%
15
10
These bars
show the net
positive Dec. 2015 July 2016
30
response
But the Public Mostly
Doesnt Care About Trade
31
Trade Ranks at the Bottom of Voters
Concerns
Rating each a top priority for the president and Congress
-- -------------------------------------------
Bush-- Obama---------------------------------------------
Neither favor
nor oppose
FTAs
34
John Murphy
Senior Vice President for
International Policy
U.S. Chamber of Commerce
jmurphy@uschamber.com
35