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CH T GI HI OI
TI CHNH QUC T
ThS. Nguyn Lan Hng
lanhuong2912@gmail.com
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Ni dung chng
M t cc ch t gi,
Nguyn nhn ca s can thip trc tip v
gin tip ca CP ln t gi,
Tc ng ca s can thip t gi ln cc
iu kin kinh t.
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Ch t gi hi oi
M t mc kim sot t gi ca Chnh
ph.
Cc ch t gi:
C nh (fixed),
Th ni hon ton (freely floated),
Th ni c iu tit (managed floated).
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History of the International Monetary System

3000BC 1821 1879 1913 1925 1931 1944 1971 1973
Gold Standard BWA
WW 1 WW 2

InterWar Period
Bretton Woods Agreement
& Special Drawing Rights

United States followed

Smithsonian Agreement
England started exchange Pound
for gold.
Gold was used as medium of Eclectic Agreement
exchange or store value
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Ch t gi c nh
T gi c gi c nh hoc ch c cho
php dao ng trong mt bin hp.
1876 n 1913: ch bn v vng gold
standard.
Sau l giai on ca bt n do WWI v
i suy thoi (Great Depression).
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Ch t gi c nh
H thng Bretton Woods (1944) ngh p
dng ch t gi c nh theo USD, bn
thn USD th c c nh theo vng
($35/ounce).
Hip c Smithsonian (t 1971) tha
thun h ng USD v m rng bin
giao ng t gi t 1% n 2%.
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Ch t gi c nh
u im:
D dng hn trong vic kim sot t gi.
Nhc im:
Chnh ph t xc nh gi tr ng tin ca
mnh DN kh d on khi no ng tin
c ti nh gi.
Cc qgia theo ch t gi c nh s tr nn
nhy cm vi nhng bin ng ca cc nn
kinh t khc.
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Nhy cm vi bin ng kinh t quc gia khc

Nu t gi USD v GBP c c nh:

Nu M c lm pht, gi c hng M tng ln
tng nhp khu t Anh gi c hng ha
Anh tng ln lm pht Anh.

Nu li sut M tng ln, (v TG c nh)

dng vn u t chy vo M tng cung vn
M gim cung vn Anh li sut Anh
tng.
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Ch t gi th ni hon ton
T gi c hon ton quyt nh bi th
trng.
Ch t gi sau Hip c Smithsonian:
Ngay c trong giai on khng ch giao
ng t gi vi ng USD th CP cc quc
gia cng gp rt nhiu kh khn trong vic
thc thi.
Trong nm 1973, h thng t gi th ni bt
u c xy dng.
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Ch t gi th ni hon ton
u im:
Mi quc gia c tch bit hn vi nhng
bin ng kinh t ca cc qgia khc.

Khng cn c s can thip ca NHTW, cc

din bin kinh t v th t b kim sot, m tun
theo qui lut th trng.
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Ch t gi th ni hon ton
u im:
CP khng b b buc vo nhng bin t gi
khi a ra cc chnh sch kinh t mi.

Khng cn t ra nhng hn ch i vi cc
dng vn, v vy m bo th trng ti chnh
vn hnh hiu qu.
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Ch t gi th ni hon ton
Nhc im:
MNC phi vt v qun l ri ro t gi.

Quc gia m ban u gp cc vn nh lm

pht cao, tht nghip ang tng ln c th i
mt vi vn nghim trng hn nhiu ln nu
theo ch t gi th ni hon ton.
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Cc tr ngi kinh t c th nghim trng hn

Nu TG gia USD v GBP c th ni

hon ton, th TG s t iu chnh theo qui
lut th trng, v vy:
Nu M c lm pht gtri ng USD gim
theo PPP TG s thay i cn bng gi
gia 2 quc gia lm pht ca Anh vn khng
i.
i vi M, gi c nhp khu tng ln, lm gi
thnh phm cng tng cao lm pht ti M
trm trng hn.
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Ch th ni c iu tit
TG c php dao ng t do v khng c
bin gii hn chnh thc no. Tuy nhin
chnh ph c th can thip ngn TG
bin ng qu mc theo mt xu hng
khng tt.
Nhc im: CP c th iu tit TG theo
hng c li cho mnh v gy thit cho cc
i tng khc.
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Vit Nam
1955-1989: Nh nc c quyn v
ngoi thng v ngoi hi c quyn
lun v xc nh t gi, khng xt n cung
cu ngoi t trn th trng.
1989-1991: ch t gi c iu chnh
mnh theo tn hiu th trng thi k
th ni TG, nh nc khng c kh nng
kim sot TG.
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Vit Nam
1992- 2/1999: TG chnh thc c n nh trn c s:
u thu ti Trtm giao dch ngoi t (t 10/1991 n
12/1994).
TG giao dch bnh qun trn th trng lin NH (1/1995
2/1999): TG hm cha yu t cung cu ngoi t ton din
hn, khch quan hn.
C s kin khng hong ti chnh tin t NA 1997-1998.
3/1999 nay: NHNN ch thng bo TG bnh qun lin
NH, chuyn t C c nh sang C th ni c iu
tit. TG c php dao ng trong bin quanh t gi
bnh qun lin ngn hng ngy hm trc.
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Can thip ca chnh ph

NHTW ca mi quc gia i din cho chnh
ph can thip vo th trng ngoi hi
kim sot gi tr ng tin quc gia.

Ti liu v vai tr cc NHTW cc quc gia:

http://www.bis.org/cbanks.htm.
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Can thip ca chnh ph

Mc ch can thip t gi:
Gim tnh bin ng TG,
Thit lp bin dao ng ca TG,
Thc thi cc chnh sch tin t, kinh t quc
gia.
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Can thip ca chnh ph

Can thip trc tip (Direct intervention):
thay i d tr chnh thc nhm duy tr t
gi.
L cch hiu qu nht, nht l khi c s
kt hp gia NHTW cc quc gia
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Can thip ca chnh ph

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Can thip ca chnh ph

Cc nh u c thng theo di st sao
nhng ng thi can thip th trng ca
NHTW nhm kim li t bin ng gi
ngoi hi t nhng s can thip ny.

VD: Khi nghe tin n NHNN s ph gi

ng VND, cc NH khng bn USD m
ghim gi USD.
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Can thip ca chnh ph

NHTW cng c th can thip gin tip (indirect
intervention) bng cch thay i cc yu t
quyt nh nn gi tr ng tin.
VD tc ng ln li sut, km hm lm pht
ng bn t.
Ngoi ra chnh ph cn dng cc bin php
kim sot giao dch ngoi hi, lm th trng
ngoi hi khng t do vn hnh quyt nh
c gi (Ti VN: qui nh cm giao dch
ngoi t trn th trng khng chnh thc)
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Can thip ca chnh ph

Trong giai on khng hong ti chnh
Chu 1997-98, chnh ph mt s quc
gia ra tay nhm gi gi ng tin bn t
khng b mt gi su v tc ng rt vn
ngoi t hng lot ca nh u t.
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Mt ch t gi ti u?
Vng t gi mc tiu (Exchange Rate Target
Zones):
Cc nh kinh t hc cho rng ch TG
hin hnh TG ca cc ng tin ln dao
ng qu mc trong thi gian gn y.
Mt s nh kinh t hc ngh nn theo ch
TG trong bin mc tiu, theo TG c
n nh cho dao ng trong mt bin c th,
nhng rng hn nhiu so vi ch TG c
nh.
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Mt ch t gi ti u?
Vng TG mc tiu cho php LS, LP c
iu chnh theo cc yu t kinh t nhng
khng gy ra cc bin ng ln trong
thng mi v ri ro ti chnh.
Thc t hin nay cc chnh ph ang theo
chnh sch TG ny.
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